Playoff Run: Key Games

[blue9]

So it's getting to be that time of the season where I look at our remaining schedule and compare it to the schedule of the teams with whom we're battling for a Playoff spot. I first looked at our schedule and my initial thought was that we have 3 tough games, and we need to win all the others to make the POs. The losses we can accept are:

LAC
GSW
OKC

But when I started looking at our competition (UTH, HOU, DAL) I started getting a little cocky - we're a shoe in. While no game is a gimme (I'll actually be shocked if we only lose 3 more games this season), we have more wiggle room than I thought.

HOU's key games:
TOR
**IND** - bonus!
CLE - so much for the IND bonus!
OKC
DAL

That's one more tough game than us, and they're two games behind. Bodes well for us.

UTH's key games:
OKC
GSW
SAS
LAC
DAL

That's TWO more tough games than us, and they're 1.5 games behind.

DAL's key games:
GSW
**SAC** - bonus!
HOU
MEM
LAC
UTH
SAS

That's THREE more tough games than us, and they're 1.5 games behind. Also, they play both HOU and UTH - so regardless of the result, those are "wins" for us.

Unless we have an epic collapse, I'm feeling really good about us getting to the Playoffs. I know people have felt this way for a while (whether reasoned or not), but I like seeing how keys games stack up. Having the tie-breaker against UTH is a nice bonus. Woulda been nice to have it against HOU, too, as they're the only team that can theoretically get hot and win out. But with DAL having to play both UTH and HOU I really like our chances of being one-and-done, which is exactly where we were one year ago.

[ADDED]
And the chase for the #5 seed, here are MEM's key remaining games:
SAS
DEN - bonus!
TOR
DAL
GSW
LAC
GSW

That's SIX tough games! Plus they have CHI in there, too. I'm not impressed by CHI, but given MEM's circumstances that could very easily be a loss. But let's face it - any of MEM's games could result in losses.

Red = Bad result for us.
Green = Good result for us.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

LOL, that last half a line tho!

 

[illmatic99]

Needed this breakdown. Thanks!

 

[KingSpeed]

If we only lose 3 games, we'll be 5 seed.

 

[blue9]

Thanks to IND and SAC we got a little bonus breathing room over HOU/DAL! Let's not squander it with a loss to a bad team.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If we only lose 3 games, we'll be 5 seed.

Yeah, @blue9, you gotta update that to include looking at Memphis' schedule as well, to consider our ability to catch them. Check out their 6 remaining tough games:
SAS
TOR
DAL
GSW
LAC
GSW

5 seed is very much within reach with the way the Grizz have been playing lately (2-6 over their past 8).

 

[Draco]

We only have two more road games left and have been great at home. I'm not worried about making the playoffs at all; I'm more interested with the opportunity to grab the 5th seed. It won't be easy but its very plausible.

 

[Draco]

One odd thought; does OKC rest their starters against us to help us pass Memphis? That would drop Memphis to 6th where they play OKC. Got to assume the Thunder would rather play the hobbled Memphis team than us in round 1. OKC will be on second of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights when we play. It'll be our 4th in 5 nights.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

One odd thought; does OKC rest their starters against us to help us pass Memphis? That would drop Memphis to 6th where they play OKC. Got to assume the Thunder would rather play the hobbled Memphis team than us in round 1. OKC will be on second of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights when we play. It'll be our 4th in 5 nights.

Their game in Portland will be their third game in four nights, immediately following a game in Denver the night before. It would behoove them to rest one of those two games. Here's to hoping.

 

[illmatic99]

One odd thought; does OKC rest their starters against us to help us pass Memphis? That would drop Memphis to 6th where they play OKC. Got to assume the Thunder would rather play the hobbled Memphis team than us in round 1. OKC will be on second of back to back and 3rd in 4 nights when we play. It'll be our 4th in 5 nights.

After our last game in OKC, I highly doubt they're worried about playing us in the first round. We might win 1 game against them if Dame gets hot. It can't be a concern for them. They might rest to rest -- not necessarily to try to avoid us.

 

[blue9]

Yeah, @blue9, you gotta update that to include looking at Memphis' schedule as well, to consider our ability to catch them. Check out their 6 remaining tough games:
SAS
TOR
DAL
GSW
LAC
GSW

5 seed is very much within reach with the way the Grizz have been playing lately (2-6 over their past 8).

Yeah, someone pointed this out in another thread. I should have copy/pasted my response in this thread after I saw MEM's remaining schedule. If we take care of business we definitely have a good shot at #5! Just can't play like we did against PHI. Updated the first post with MEM's tough games.

 

[blue9]

After our last game in OKC, I highly doubt they're worried about playing us in the first round. We might win 1 game against them if Dame gets hot. It can't be a concern for them. They might rest to rest -- not necessarily to try to avoid us.

I still really hope we rest Dame/CJ for at least one game (GSW), and more if we can do it without impacting our seeding.

 

[illmatic99]

I still really hope we rest Dame/CJ for at least one game (GSW), and more if we can do it without impacting our seeding.

We shoulda been able to do that vs Philly (without Okafor and Noel). But instead we had to play Dame and CJ big minutes and had to need everyone of their minutes to eek out a win. Not a good look

 

[Trackjack]

The way been playing we don't have no shoe in games. Yes the schedule favor us but we been struggle we got to step up and play like we deserve to be here.

 

[Draco]

Here is a more detailed confusing list. First there is the Blazers schedule, the periods before the game signal the number of rest days we have the period after how many rest days our opponent has:

Blazers 36 losses
..BOS..
.MIA
@GS.
.@SAC..
OKC
..MIN.
...DEN..

Memphis 34
.TOR
.@ORL
.CHI
..@DAL
GS
..@LAC
@GS

Utah 38
.MIN
.@PHX
.SAS
..LAC
.@DEN
DAL
.@LAL

Houston 38
.CHI
..OKC
..@DAL
PHX
..LAL
@MIN
.SAC

Dallas 38
.@DET
.@MIN
..HOU..
.MEM
.@LAC
@UTH
.SAS

Tie breakers
PDX owns UTH leads MEM(+4conf) behind HOU(-1conf) loss DAL
UTH tied DAL 1-1 behind HOU(-2conf) loss PDX
DAL owns PDX tied UTH 1-1 behind HOU 1-2
HOU leads PDX(+1conf) leads UTH(+2conf) leads DAL 2-1

 

[TBpup]

We're making the Playoffs, it's just a matter of which seed. Giving away the Clipper game hurt for getting to #5 but it's still possible. That is where I think the Blazers need to be to at least have a competitive Playoff series and get something out of it. Tonight is a MUST win.

 

[Draco]

Memphis can lose every game on their schedule, shocked they've won as much as they have lately. Look at the guys their starting and playing major minutes, it may be worse than Phillys roster.

The opponents effort at the end of the year will be really difficult to judge. Some playoff teams might rest starters. But some might go all out for one game trying to tune up for the playoffs. Golden State might be setting the all time win record. Some lottery teams might tank the last few games to get a better pick. Hell Houston might tank to miss the playoffs and keep their pick. Or a lottery team might want to finish the year with a win and play their best game in months. It's going to be a chaotic finish. We might need every last win with no idea who we play until the last few hours of the last night of the season. Or we could be locked into our matchup with a week to play and have a few meaningless games.

 

[Tunchi]

After our last game in OKC, I highly doubt they're worried about playing us in the first round. We might win 1 game against them if Dame gets hot. It can't be a concern for them. They might rest to rest -- not necessarily to try to avoid us.

I laughed at that too if anything they probably WANT to play us lol

 

[Blazer4ever]

Blazers 36 losses
.SAC
..BOS..
.MIA
@GS.
.@SAC..
OKC
..MIN.
...DEN..

Boston and Miami are very tough games, also Sac at home and even moreso Sac at their building. All these games may not be "key games" but they aren't easy games. Also, I thought GS is at home, if it's in their building it's probably a L but I was hoping we could steal this game. OKC is another important game, if we lose like in the previous game it would send the wrong signal before possibly facing them in the Playoffs

 

[BlazerCaravan]

If we win the games we're supposed to, we'll be 43-39. If MEM wins the games they're supposed to, they'll be 44-38. The trick here is we have to take one or two we're "not supposed to" win, like OKC at home, and MEM has to lose a gimmie or two, like their game agains DEN. Given the state of both teams right now, it's going to be tough. I think we have 6th place stitched up, given HOU and DAL's schedule.

 

[KingSpeed]

I still really hope we rest Dame/CJ for at least one game (GSW), and more if we can do it without impacting our seeding.

We only have 2 games in the 10 days before playoffs. That's more than enough rest without sitting them for a game.

 

[KingSpeed]

I laughed at that too if anything they probably WANT to play us lol

Over Memphis? No. Everyone wants to play Memphis. It's an easy sweep.

If we win the games we're supposed to, we'll be 43-39. If MEM wins the games they're supposed to, they'll be 44-38. The trick here is we have to take one or two we're "not supposed to" win, like OKC at home, and MEM has to lose a gimmie or two, like their game agains DEN. Given the state of both teams right now, it's going to be tough. I think we have 6th place stitched up, given HOU and DAL's schedule.

I don't think there are any easy games left for Memphis with their roster.

 

[trailblazer18]

Pop is sitting most of his guys tonight against Memphis....suck

 

[KingSpeed]

Pop is sitting most of his guys tonight against Memphis....suck

Spurs can still win.

 

[illmatic99]

Pop is sitting most of his guys tonight against Memphis....suck

ugh.

 

[Orion Bailey]

Pop is sitting most of his guys tonight against Memphis....suck

I want to like your post for providing the info... but.... sorry man....I just cant.

ugh.

Right?

 

[illmatic99]

Grizzlies are legit starting:

Jordan Farmar
Tony Allen
Matt Barnes
JaMychal Green
Chris Anderson

Good lord.

 

[Draco]

Pop is sitting most of his guys tonight against Memphis....suck

Yeah does suck. Spurs still have a great chance to win. I think Spurs will play most their guys on home games to keep the streak up and the game at GS. Seems like they could care less about other road games.

 

[trailblazer18]

Spurs can still win.

Oh for sure, but just lowers the odds obviously. I feel like Memphis should have bombed out awhile ago, but somehow they keep winning just enough.

 

[trailblazer18]

Grizzlies are legit starting:

Jordan Farmar
Tony Allen
Matt Barnes
JaMychal Green
Chris Anderson

Good lord.

I had no idea Farmar was back in the league...