Game Thread PLAYOFFS: ROUND 1, GAME 1: BLAZERS @ WARRIORS - 4/16/17, SUNDAY, 12:30 PM (PDT), ABC

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Predict the outcome of this series

  • Total voters
    71
  • Poll closed .
Minstrel said:
There are a couple of reasons that I'm skeptical that Nurkic would have changed the Blazers' fortunes against the Blazers:

1. He's always has a huge turnover rate. He did in Denver, he's continued that in Portland. "Feeding" Nurkic, especially against Golden State's active defense, would likely lead to a lot of turnovers and that means more fast break opportunities for the Warriors, which fuels their attack. And Nurkic isn't an unstoppable force in the post--his scoring efficiency has risen in Portland, but it's still only middling (it was awful in Denver). I don't see Nurkic really making a big difference on the offensive end.

2. Fouls. On the defensive end, he could make an impact, sure. He's a strong contest at the rim. He's also foul-prone. So maybe he contests more of those layups, but he also racks up the fouls, putting the Blazers in the penalty faster and sitting with fouls a lot, mitigating his defensive value.

I like Nurkic's potential long-term, but right now he's not a game-changer that would elevate the Blazers anywhere near the Warriors' level, let alone past them. At least in my opinion. And that's a fully healthy Nurkic who hasn't been sitting 2-3 weeks. If he has any amount of rust or lack of conditioning, his value in this series would be even lower.
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Thank you. Nice to see someone who GETS IT, without the rose-colored Kingspeed goggles on.
 
Minstrel said:
There are a couple of reasons that I'm skeptical that Nurkic would have changed the Blazers' fortunes against the Blazers:

1. He's always has a huge turnover rate. He did in Denver, he's continued that in Portland. "Feeding" Nurkic, especially against Golden State's active defense, would likely lead to a lot of turnovers and that means more fast break opportunities for the Warriors, which fuels their attack. And Nurkic isn't an unstoppable force in the post--his scoring efficiency has risen in Portland, but it's still only middling (it was awful in Denver). I don't see Nurkic really making a big difference on the offensive end.

2. Fouls. On the defensive end, he could make an impact, sure. He's a strong contest at the rim. He's also foul-prone. So maybe he contests more of those layups, but he also racks up the fouls, putting the Blazers in the penalty faster and sitting with fouls a lot, mitigating his defensive value.

I like Nurkic's potential long-term, but he's not a game-changer that would elevate the Blazers anywhere near the Warriors' level right now, let alone past them. At least in my opinion. And that's a fully healthy Nurkic who hasn't been sitting 2-3 weeks. If he has any amount of rust or lack of conditioning, his value in this series would be even lower.
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Nurk's value is lower than Leonard on 2 herniated discs and a jacked-up hip? We were tied going into the 4th with Vonleh and Leonard combining for 30 minutes at the 5. Yes, a rusty, injured Nurk is way better than that.

He's foul-prone in regular season situations. I think he's one whose impact goes up when whistles get swallowed. You're correct that he's a stong contest at the rim and a rebounding machine. And even if he's sitting, we're right back where we were today, except that we got X minutes and 6 fouls out of Nurk. Andmaybe some T's on Green.
 
BrianFromWA said:
Nurk's value is lower than Leonard on 2 herniated discs and a jacked-up hip? We were tied going into the 4th with Vonleh and Leonard combining for 30 minutes at the 5. Yes, a rusty, injured Nurk is way better than that.

He's foul-prone in regular season situations. I think he's one whose impact goes up when whistles get swallowed. You're correct that he's a stong contest at the rim and a rebounding machine. And even if he's sitting, we're right back where we were today, except that we got X minutes and 6 fouls out of Nurk. Andmaybe some T's on Green.
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I liked this purely for the image of seeing Green get T'ed up.


I'll be right back.....
 
The most valuable thing about having Nurkic in the lineup is that Aminu, Vonleh or Leonard won't be playing the 5. He doesn't need to get 15 rebs or 20 pts. In fact even with 10 and 8 and a couple of blks he would be an oasis down there.
 
Lillard and Mccollum are amazing. Unfortunately, so is the Warriors' defense. With no one other than Lillard and Mccollum showing up (and ET, who also played a pretty good game), the Warriors just dared someone else to beat them.

Nurkic is going to help so much. Their ability to switch 1-5 gave the Blazers fits. They can't do that with Nurk on the floor. I wouldn't call him a great post scorer, but he'll feast on anyone not named Draymond. Hope he's back for game two!
 
BrianFromWA said:
Nurk's value is lower than Leonard on 2 herniated discs and a jacked-up hip? We were tied going into the 4th with Vonleh and Leonard combining for 30 minutes at the 5. Yes, a rusty, injured Nurk is way better than that.
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I didn't say the Blazers are generally better without him. I said I'm skeptical that he makes a sizable difference in the gap between the two teams. I don't think foul-prone bigs are bailed out by "playoff physicality." At least, I certainly wouldn't be going in with that as the base expectation--if it happened, great.

Overall, people are acting like A. Nurkic is one of the best players in the NBA and B. the Warriors are destroyed by big men. Both implications are exaggerated. Nurkic is currently a good player with an upside to be very good. The Warriors are decent at defending big men (Pachulia is not a rim protector, but he's a solid on-ball defender, McGee is prone to silly mistakes but has also played solid defense for the Warriors and Green, despite his size, has always played "up"--positionally--against big men). This isn't some gigantic flaw that Nurkic is tailor-made to exploit. He'd provide some benefits, but also some weaknesses (which are going unsaid, in the narrative that Nurkic turns the entire series). Just like any other good non-star player on a major underdog team.
 
HCP said:
Just curious why you guys who keep saying if we had Nurk we would have won? I'm not sure he would have helped stop KD tonight. Or do you think our guards will put up those kind of numbers again and he would be just enough more offense to win? I think the Ws defense is what beat us tonight. Not sure Nurk could have changed that.
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I don't think Portland wins this series, didn't from the start. I said 5 games out of pure hope they don't close out in Portland.
However Nurk has proven even against great defensive teams he opens the court up for Lillard/CJ offensively, and defends the rim.
I'm not sure with how well CJ/Lillard played if he really would have helped that much offensively.
But he certainly helps when they're struggling on that end. Which they didn't tonight.
I however think Portland would have struggled more defensively in the pick and roll than they did today if Nurk had played.
As Portland couldn't switch like they did tonight.
 
I don't think Green can cover Nurk either one-on-one on the block or on the P&R. Therefore, not only is he (or McGee) now unable to contain Nurk (if we "feed" him), but he's also not going to be able to help out on either offensive boards or those blocks you saw. And Dame's shown he's more prone to pass to Nurk in traffic than he is to Hark or Noah (as you saw today in a few epic blocks).

There's a reason the main teams GSW loses to teams with scoring bigs like SAS, SAC (with Boogie), MIN (with KAT), Grizz (Gasol) and Nuggets (Jokic). Even if they focus on the big, that leaves the rest of the team open to getting picked apart by the shooters. Today, a) our shooters aside from CJ and Dame weren't on, and b) they didn't have to respect the big, so you could switch with impunity, help wherever needed, and pick up big rebounds. And it was still tied after 3.
 
Nurk comes back and it causes all sorts of trouble for Golden state. With Nurkic, golden state won't be able to hedge dame and CJ the way they did in the second half. They would get wrecked on the pick and roll. It would also force them to play zaza instead of going small at center with draymond, aka their best lineup.

But of course any fan of the game would know this. Unless you're HCP. Literally watches a game for a living and still doesn't know what the hell hes looking at.
 
Reading this damn thread, just ridiculous to think Nurk would have not made any difference. We had no one to drag their bigs out of the paint and we either jacked shit shots or played one on four in the paint. Made shots or not, poor shot selection is a shit shot.
 
I enjoyed this game for a first round road game being the underdog....played with them for 3 qtrs...guys played great defense but seemed gassed in the fourth trying to get back in it......Vonleh was hammered in the post all night...he had 3 guys on him down there and he still tried to pull down boards....Chief had a bad offensive game...one of his worst..still good things to take from this series!
 
honkicracker said:
I don't think Portland wins this series, didn't from the start. I said 5 games out of pure hope they don't close out in Portland.
However Nurk has proven even against great defensive teams he opens the court up for Lillard/CJ offensively, and defends the rim.
I'm not sure with how well CJ/Lillard played if he really would have helped that much offensively.
But he certainly helps when they're struggling on that end. Which they didn't tonight.
I however think Portland would have struggled more defensively in the pick and roll than they did today if Nurk had played.
As Portland couldn't switch like they did tonight.
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We would not have made the playoffs, without Nurkic. Can everyone agree on that??? We are a tougher team when he plays. There is no argument against that. Other options-Butters???????
 
BrianFromWA said:
I don't think Green can cover Nurk either one-on-one on the block or on the P&R. Therefore, not only is he (or McGee) now unable to contain Nurk (if we "feed" him), but he's also not going to be able to help out on either offensive boards or those blocks you saw. And Dame's shown he's more prone to pass to Nurk in traffic than he is to Hark or Noah (as you saw today in a few epic blocks).

There's a reason the main teams GSW loses to teams with scoring bigs like SAS, SAC (with Boogie), MIN (with KAT), Grizz (Gasol) and Nuggets (Jokic). Even if they focus on the big, that leaves the rest of the team open to getting picked apart by the shooters. Today, a) our shooters aside from CJ and Dame weren't on, and b) they didn't have to respect the big, so you could switch with impunity, help wherever needed, and pick up big rebounds. And it was still tied after 3.
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Awesome post. Just had to say.....
 
KingSpeed said:
Nurk also would've erased some of Curry's layups like Green did to Lillard. With Nurk, we would've won today. Definitely.
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Agree 100%. I have to wonder how much more confidence he would have given our bench players too. It's already a proven fact that when he plays, the whole team shoots better. We've got this. Our guys can shock everyone. Beat GS, and we can beat ANYONE!
 
Dougnsalem said:
Agree 100%. I have to wonder how much more confidence he would have given our bench players too. It's already a proven fact that when he plays, the whole team shoots better. We've got this. Our guys can shock everyone. Beat GS, and we can beat ANYONE!
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Although it'll be tough when we play the spurs and Dame and CJ have to sit for Patty Ice and Shabazzle-Dazzle.
 
HCP said:
I'd like to introduce you to playoff defense FAMS. Quality teams make adjustments.
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CJ was getting off the same shots and was missing. His handle was also looser in the 2nd half, "FAMS".
 
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