Poll: Holmgren vs. Banchero

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  • Total voters
    66
blazerfan11 said:
Pokusevski was 3 rebounds short of a triple double. 11 points, 11 assists and 8 rebounds.
I think that kind of play is what people are looking for from Chet Holmgren. A guy who can make a difference with and without the ball.
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Well, the Blazer team that played OKC last night probably would have finished near the top of the WCC, so I guess that does play into the Poku-Chet comparison.
 
PCmor7 said:
Oh, there are several analogs to Holmgren: Dragan Bender, Shawn Bradley, Zach Collins.
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Dragan Bender: no. There was very little to go on in drafting him, and he certainly wasn't known for his defense.
Shawn Bradley: YAWN. This is because of the "tall and skinny white guy" thing. It's probably the closest match, but (a) Bradley literally had to play center because he was too slow for anything else, (b) he played in a center-dominant era and got murdered by people like Shaq, and (c) there was no hint of "guard skills" in Shawn Bradley. One of the most appealing things about Holmgren is his basketball brain and dribbling/shooting ability. (Lest we forget.)
Zach Collins: This is the "white guy who played one year for Gonzaga" thing. Again, SOME similarities, but I don't really see it. Collins is a pretty standard college 4/5. Holmgren... isn't. (I actually really liked Zach when he could stay healthy, but would agree he was taken too high at #10. He was never even projected as high as Holmgren. He averaged under 18 mpg for Gonzaga in his one year.)

PCmor7 said:
People who don't like him, at least me, are more concerned that he lacks the frame to put on functional strength, put up big numbers playing against competition that for the most part isn't even G-League level and for a guy touted as being a unicorn with these perimeter skills Gonzaga didn't seem comfortable enough in that part of his game that should have created such a mismatch to use it even in big games.
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The frame issue is a legit concern. He will always get pushed around. But luckily for him there are very few teams whose focus is pounding the ball down low. His value is coming out of nowhere to block shots, not guarding some giant one-on-one. See Robert Williams on Boston, for example. As for the versatility: he's a freshman on a college team with Drew Timme - of course they're not going to take risks with his skills. They have to win EVERY GAME - they're not interested in developing him.

PCmor7 said:
EDIT: I also thought, for a guy who's touted as this other-worldly shot-blocker, he was a step slow far too many times against Memphis, which scored something like 40 points in the paint even with him playing 30 minutes.

I see him as a boom-or-bust prospect. High ceiling. Basement floor.
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Funny, everyone thinks Banchero has a high floor, but then I see him being compared with Michael Beasley. Wanna know who had a better NBA career out of Beasley and Bradley (both taken #2, BTW)?
Seriously: just about every year there's a tweener forward who's a great college scorer with "all the tools to play good defense" who gets taken top 5 and is out of the league in 5 years or fewer (or playing on a league minimum contract somewhere).
Beasley (#2)
Derrick Williams (#2)
Thomas Robinson (#5)
Otto Porter (#3)
Marvin Bagley (#2)

I see Banchero as having much more bust potential. His only value is as the main scorer. If he's not scoring, what's he doing out there? Bust players are players who have to be The Guy, and if they can't be that (and they're not good enough to be that in the NBA) there's no point to them. Holmgren is useful if he doesn't take a shot. (Re: the Memphis game: Holmgren got 4 blocks and Memphis shot 42%. And Gonzaga won.)
 
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I take Chet, he's the front line defender we've needed and he certainly can shoot/play inside out. Yeah, it will take some time to get him comfortable. The other thing I like about Chet is his competitiveness and he's going to get pushed around but he's smart enough to know where he has an advantage too. I do like Banchero too, but realistically unless we trade up there is not much chance we have a shot at either.
My dark horse at 5-12 is Murray. I like his age much like Dame and Roy and he's ver capable on both ends of the floor and has decent size.
 
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I'm torn on Chet as he has the big white guy stigma around him and those shoulders scream that he'll never be able to put on any real weight to his frame, but the guy is so skilled and can help you without the ball being in his hands, something that is obviously important with guys like Dame and Ant already on the roster. I like Paolo a lot but he total lack of will to play defense has to be a major red flag, especially again for a team with Dame and Ant on it. The guy can score and seems to have all the necessary traits to be good on defense but has yet to show it. Long run I'd take Holmgren of the two but it's close.
 
wizenheimer said:
do you realize how condescending that post is?
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i find people making definitive statements about any draft prospect kinda hilarious. i'm guilty of it at times too but i try to couch my predictions so that i remain somewhat open-minded when things finally shake out on draft day. projecting these prospects 5 yrs down the line after getting NBA level coaching/development is not easy, and it's why the first ten players picked in any draft are never the ten best players after everything is said and done. even people who draft these guys for a living have made colossal mistakes, so it's really not much of a shame to get things wrong.

as far as Chet's defense, I think he'll be an elite shot blocker. those instincts SHOULD translate. I've been maintaining for a while that he needs to be planted near the rim and always in drop coverage so that the team he's on takes advantage of his rim protection. i also don't see him having the foot speed or lateral mobility to guard any 4s in the NBA, especially with increased spacing. People like to think he's Evan Mobley, while he's closer to being Rudy Gobert. Definitely valuable, but not nearly the kinda defensive stalwart that some people are projecting

(and yes, i know Gobert is a perennial DPOY candidate, Holmgren could be somewhat close to that too, but we keep seeing Gobert repeatedly neutralized in the playoffs and I'd like someone more mobile and able to switch).
 
illmatic99 said:
i find people making definitive statements about any draft prospect kinda hilarious. i'm guilty of it at times too but i try to couch my predictions so that i remain somewhat open-minded when things finally shake out on draft day. projecting these prospects 5 yrs down the line after getting NBA level coaching/development is not easy, and it's why the first ten players picked in any draft are never the ten best players after everything is said and done. even people who draft these guys for a living have made colossal mistakes, so it's really not much of a shame to get things wrong.

as far as Chet's defense, I think he'll be an elite shot blocker. those instincts SHOULD translate. I've been maintaining for a while that he needs to be planted near the rim and always in drop coverage so that the team he's on takes advantage of his rim protection. i also don't see him having the foot speed or lateral mobility to guard any 4s in the NBA, especially with increased spacing. People like to think he's Evan Mobley, while he's closer to being Rudy Gobert. Definitely valuable, but not nearly the kinda defensive stalwart that some people are projecting

(and yes, i know Gobert is a perennial DPOY candidate, Holmgren could be somewhat close to that too, but we keep seeing Gobert repeatedly neutralized in the playoffs and I'd like someone more mobile and able to switch).
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The comparison in this thread is Chet to Paola.
So what is your opinion on Banchero's defense? Is he going to be a plus or minus?
If Banchero is a minus, he doesn't need to be neutralized.
 
blazerfan11 said:
The comparison in this thread is Chet to Paola.
So what is your opinion on Banchero's defense? Is he going to be a plus or minus?
If Banchero is a minus, he doesn't need to be neutralized.
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I think Banchero has all the physical tools to be a solid defender in the league. He's long/strong/mobile laterally, and has shown he can defend when he wants to. While the motor is an issue for some players, I don't see it being much of one for Paolo especially if he can get into Chauncey's system from the jump. Unless they're extremely bad, I don't see pre-draft comments about top 5 prospects lazing on defense being much of an issue-- I'm far more concerned about physical tools when projecting how these guys will be on defense. And Chet has tangible physical limitations to how effective he can be on that end (difficulty defending in space, lack of strength to battle down low, slow-footed, etc), while Paolo does not.

Also, Jayson Tatum wasn't really considered a strong defender at Duke either. Neither was RJ Barrett. Both are "plus" defenders in the NBA with some seasoning.

This is what the Ringer said about Tatum pre-draft:
  • Lacks defensive mentality. Loses focus off-ball, dies on screens. He has the ability but doesn’t play with much effort or NBA-level physicality
  • Lacks defensive versatility. Flat-footed on the perimeter; gets toasted by guards. Thin in the waist, so gets overpowered by bigs
While they said he was a competitive defender at lower levels, they also said this about Barrett:
  • He’s a ball watcher off-ball who routinely misses defensive rotations; on-ball, he often falls out of his stance possibly due to a lack of interest, awareness, or energy.
Here's what they say about Paolo:
  • A strong and quick defender who could potentially develop into a versatile on-ball stopper. He can slide laterally against smaller guys and might be best suited as a small-ball 5 due to his comfort switching screens.
  • Effective help defender who can alter shots around the rim using his length and athleticism—when he’s trying.
  • Defensive effort fluctuated in high school and has absolutely evaporated in college. Every game, he has instances when he doesn't even bother to contest a shot or rotate to help. He’ll sometimes lose track of his man and he could be better about boxing out more frequently. Banchero shoulders a lot of responsibility on offense, so he might be conserving energy.
 
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blazerfan11 said:
The comparison in this thread is Chet to Paola.
So what is your opinion on Banchero's defense? Is he going to be a plus or minus?
If Banchero is a minus, he doesn't need to be neutralized.
Click to expand...
It's hard to teach a motor but we've seen more guys turn that around than slow foot speed. For our team, I will maintain that having two guys with feet as slow as Chet and Nurk playing in our starting lineup together would be disastrous in today's NBA. There have been possessions in the tourney and other games I've watched where Paolo locks in and he has the abilities to be a great one on one defender and team defender as well, the problem is the same was said about Carmelo during college and during the first half of his career before everyone realized that he wasn't going to flip that switch ever but I don't think Banchero grades out to a Carmelo level offensive beast so he's probably going to have to develop the other half of his game if he wants Melo type of money.

For me, if you got the first pick, you would have to get these two guys in and Jabari and put them through some really tough defensive scenarios with other prospects or guys from our team and see how they do against NBA level talent before being sure that Paolo can't flip the switch or that Chet can't use his head and length to make up for his slow feet like he did a lot of the time in college. They're both more of a liability on defense than Jabari but I guess that's OT for this thread.
 
illmatic99 said:
I think Banchero has all the physical tools to be a solid defender in the league. He's long/strong/mobile laterally, and has shown he can defend when he wants to. While the motor is an issue for some players, I don't see it being much of one for Paolo especially if he can get into Chauncey's system from the jump. Unless they're extremely bad, I don't see pre-draft comments about top 5 prospects lazing on defense being much of an issue-- I'm far more concerned about physical tools when projecting how these guys will be on defense. And Chet has tangible physical limitations to how effective he can be on that end (difficulty defending in space, lack of strength to battle down low, slow-footed, etc), while Paolo does not.

Also, Jayson Tatum wasn't really considered a strong defender at Duke either. Neither was RJ Barrett. Both are "plus" defenders in the NBA with some seasoning.

This is what the Ringer said about Tatum pre-draft:
  • Lacks defensive mentality. Loses focus off-ball, dies on screens. He has the ability but doesn’t play with much effort or NBA-level physicality
  • Lacks defensive versatility. Flat-footed on the perimeter; gets toasted by guards. Thin in the waist, so gets overpowered by bigs
While they said he was a competitive defender at lower levels, they also said this about Barrett:
  • He’s a ball watcher off-ball who routinely misses defensive rotations; on-ball, he often falls out of his stance possibly due to a lack of interest, awareness, or energy.
Here's what they say about Paolo:
  • A strong and quick defender who could potentially develop into a versatile on-ball stopper. He can slide laterally against smaller guys and might be best suited as a small-ball 5 due to his comfort switching screens.
  • Effective help defender who can alter shots around the rim using his length and athleticism—when he’s trying.
  • Defensive effort fluctuated in high school and has absolutely evaporated in college. Every game, he has instances when he doesn't even bother to contest a shot or rotate to help. He’ll sometimes lose track of his man and he could be better about boxing out more frequently. Banchero shoulders a lot of responsibility on offense, so he might be conserving energy.
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Funny you should mention The Ringer, because they have Holmgren going #1.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Funny you should mention The Ringer, because they have Holmgren going #1.
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If we had a super strong and athletic big to put next to Holmgren then for sure he's the best guy in the draft to take but you have to have that personnel in order to make him work in my opinion and Nurk just isn't that athletic big, not at all.

Maybe I'm wrong and the gigantic speed jump that happens from college to the NBA won't neutralize his high defensive IQ, the fluidity of his slow movement and extreme length that he's used to be a good to great defender up to this point. I've just seen that speed jump hurt a lot of guys especially if they're put with other guys that have problems with faster/quicker players.
 
I put very little stock in analytics for college players, especially the defensive ratings. These guys are too young not to assume they can't improve if they have the athletic and physical ability to be solid defenders. Same with analyzing their work ethic, at least not for the one and done's. The sample size is too small.

As for Chet, I just don't think at this point in his very young career, that he can play center in the NBA. Sure he would block some shots but he is just not strong enough to battle down low. Not yet. IMO he needs to start out playing the stretch 4 position. He can shoot and he can guard most of them. Most are not that quick that they will be blowing by him. And he is not that slow. Although he can't protect the rim from the perimeter so one of his best skill sets will not be adequately used. He can still help out on occasion but for the most part, whoever drafts him will have to wait for him to put on weight if they are looking for a center.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
IMO he needs to start out playing the stretch 4 position. He can shoot and he can guard most of them. Most are not that quick that they will be blowing by him. And he is not that slow.
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These are the starting 4s in the west:

- Crowder/Cam Johnson
- JJJ
- Draymond
- Finney-Smith
- Bogdanovic
- Porter Jr.
- Vanderbilt
- Kawhi
- Zion
- Keldon Johnson
- Lebron
- Barnes
- Bazley
- Wood

I can see almost every single one of those guys being able to blow past him if he's guarding them in space on the perimeter.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I put very little stock in analytics for college players, especially the defensive ratings. These guys are too young not to assume they can't improve if they have the athletic and physical ability to be solid defenders. Same with analyzing their work ethic, at least not for the one and done's. The sample size is too small.

As for Chet, I just don't think at this point in his very young career, that he can play center in the NBA. Sure he would block some shots but he is just not strong enough to battle down low. Not yet. IMO he needs to start out playing the stretch 4 position. He can shoot and he can guard most of them. Most are not that quick that they will be blowing by him. And he is not that slow. Although he can't protect the rim from the perimeter so one of his best skill sets will not be adequately used. He can still help out on occasion but for the most part, whoever drafts him will have to wait for him to put on weight if they are looking for a center.
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If you're comparing him to every other guy who might be a PF that might be taken in the lotto in this draft, Chet definitely is slow. He's not that slow for a center in this league and wouldn't have been that slow for a PF a decade or two ago but for a PF that you would use a number 1-3 pick on to play next to Jusuf Nurkic, the dude is slow as molasses.
 
illmatic99 said:
These are the starting 4s in the west:

- Crowder/Cam Johnson
- JJJ
- Draymond
- Finney-Smith
- Bogdanovic
- Porter Jr.
- Vanderbilt
- Kawhi
- Zion
- Keldon Johnson
- Lebron
- Barnes
- Bazley
- Wood

I can see almost every single one of those guys being able to blow past him if he's guarding them in space on the perimeter.
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Yeah, when you're questioning if a guy has slower feet than Dray, you probably don't want to use a top 3 pick to put him next to Nurk.
 
blazerkor said:
Yeah, when you're questioning if a guy has slower feet than Dray, you probably don't want to use a top 3 pick to put him next to Nurk.
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i mean, in reality with all these guys, they are going to get targeted by defenses their first few years in the league. Guys like Mobley are extremely rare.
 
illmatic99 said:
These are the starting 4s in the west:

- Crowder/Cam Johnson
- JJJ
- Draymond
- Finney-Smith
- Bogdanovic
- Porter Jr.
- Vanderbilt
- Kawhi
- Zion
- Keldon Johnson
- Lebron
- Barnes
- Bazley
- Wood

I can see almost every single one of those guys being able to blow past him if he's guarding them in space on the perimeter.
Click to expand...

If these are the PFs in the league then why do we even need one? Most of these guys can be guarded by Little or Winslow

Finney Smith 220 lbs
Kawai 225 lbs
Vanderbilt 214 lbs
Barnes 225 lbs
Keldon Johnson 220
Porter Jr. 218
Bazely 208
Cam Johnson 210
Zion is currently too fat to blow by anyone. When he is in shape he is too good for anyone to guard
 
Pinwheel1 said:
If these are the PFs in the league then why do we even need one? Most of these guys can be guarded by Little or Winslow

Finney Smith 220 lbs
Kawai 225 lbs
Vanderbilt 214 lbs
Barnes 225 lbs
Keldon Johnson 220
Porter Jr. 218
Bazely 208
Cam Johnson 210
Zion is currently too fat to blow by anyone. When he is in shape he is too good for anyone to guard
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we need a PF who can not only guard these guys, but also be dynamic enough offensively to punish them on the other end. We also need to expand our offensive talent to the front court so our guards don't get targeted and neutralized in the playoffs.
 
illmatic99 said:
we need a PF who can not only guard these guys, but also be dynamic enough offensively to punish them on the other end. We also need to expand our offensive talent to the front court so our guards don't get targeted and neutralized in the playoffs.
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I am not saying we don't need a good player in the frontcourt, just that your list is essentially telling me we need a big SF who can score and cover the perimeter.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I am not saying we don't need a good player in the frontcourt, just that your list is essentially telling me we need a big SF who can score and cover the perimeter.
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Ya all former SFs have moved up a position. The SF-PF duos around the league are largely interchangeable and this transition has only magnified over the past few years, so that maybe only one team still has a tall/heavy PF (Cleveland). To bring it back to this thread, that's why I will staunchly maintain that Chet will be a mainstay C in the league.
 
It won’t matter we will end up with 9th pick and miss out on NO pick
 
I’d pick Chet only because I feel he has more upside. Kid shoots passes and plays good help defense. Of course I’m one of the idiots that wanted Oden. Although I’m 2 for 3 I wanted Roy and Lillard
 
Pinwheel1 said:
I put very little stock in analytics for college players, especially the defensive ratings. These guys are too young not to assume they can't improve if they have the athletic and physical ability to be solid defenders. Same with analyzing their work ethic, at least not for the one and done's. The sample size is too small.

As for Chet, I just don't think at this point in his very young career, that he can play center in the NBA. Sure he would block some shots but he is just not strong enough to battle down low. Not yet. IMO he needs to start out playing the stretch 4 position. He can shoot and he can guard most of them. Most are not that quick that they will be blowing by him. And he is not that slow. Although he can't protect the rim from the perimeter so one of his best skill sets will not be adequately used. He can still help out on occasion but for the most part, whoever drafts him will have to wait for him to put on weight if they are looking for a center.
Click to expand...
Anyone thinking of drafting Holmgren has probably looked with interest at what Cleveland did with Evan Mobley.
 
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