Portland's Defense and Contending Status?

[e_blazer]

Jason Quick has an article in The Athletic today that addresses the status of Portland's defense and whether it's good enough to contend. He interviews Seth Partnow, who also writes for The Athletic, but is also a former director of basketball research for the Bucks. I'll summarize some of the Q & A I found interesting below:

1. Is the Blazers' defensive weakness primarily a reflection of poor coaching by Stotts or poor roster construction:

A: Primarily the roster. Dame & CJ are not great defenders, although CJ has been one of the better defenders this season. They bring offense that offsets some of their defensive weakness, but you have to recognize and accept the tradeoff. Kanter and Melo are "very negative defenders" (putting it nicely). Trent Jr. "works hard defensively, but has been a sizable negative in defensive RAPM. Nurk, Covington & Jones Jr. are strong. There's no "point of attack resistance" and you can't really get that when players can't stay in front of the ball. Opponents are shooting tops in the league on corner 3s.

2. The Blazers have some solid defenders, not enough to be a top 10 defense, but why can't they at least be competent? How can they improve?

A: With Nurk playing, the Blazers have been "essentially average defensively". The Nurkc, RoCo, Jones frontcourt was slightly above average. Lineups with both Anthony & Kanter have ben awful, surrendering 117.7 points/100 possessions. Lineups with Dame and no Nurk have been similarly bad. With good pressure on ballhandlers, "lineups with Kanter on the interior could be serviceable." The same could be true with a top-level rim protector. Covington and Jones are excellent "help-and-recover defenders", but forcing them to rotate and help every possession doesn't work.

3. Trent Jr. gives effort on defense. Where does his impact fail?

A: GT Jr. is 694th out of 733 players in 3-year Defensive RAPM over his career. That stat has weaknesses. "Observationally, I think Trent is a pretty decent on-ball defender of like-sized players. But, asked to be a point of attack stopper as the Blazers often do puts him in positions to fail. Trent is working hard, but his foul rate is too high as a result. "The average player will commit a non-shooting foul while opponents are shooting the bonus about once every 300 defensive possessions. Last year, Trent was tied fo 49th most "bonus fouls" in the league, committing one every 190 possessions or so."

4. How about the Blazers' current run of success where the Blazers have been 17th in defense?

A: Winning 8 of 9 and still being only 17th shows that there is a problem. Things are going well, but the D is only "average-ish". The teams that the Blazers have played in this stretch are "about as close to a "get healthy defensively" run of matchups as a team could hope for."

 

[riverman]

Some of our defensive stats over the last 9 games include end of the bench guys playing stretches when we have a lead and with Melo and Kanter...which doesn't help Melo's stats, playing next to 3rd stringers...and the stats of Nurk, Roco and Jones should seem mediocre...they didn't even have a training camp...no chemistry yet...that's just starting to gel for the new guys...I think it's more of a work in progress than a set in stone character of this team.....it's kind of a stretch to look at career stats of guys on a rookie contract that are just starting to get some burn ...

 

[illmatic99]

Trevor Ariza posted video of himself at a gym in Blazer shorts with his son as well as him driving while listening to a Dame Dolla song. Think id rather get another defensive wing (or a PG) who can swing to PF than another C like Cuz

Look at who we'll play in the playoffs. Kawhi, PG, Lebron, Luka, Murray, Mitchell, Steph, Booker, CP, Derozan, etc etc. Same with the east.

I know we have Jokic and Gobert and AD to deal with but think having another 6 fouls to throw at the wings is really valuable.

 

[Scalma]

What are the rules, can we sign Ariza if he gets bought out? I would love to bring him back, even if it means fewer minutes for the kids. Give me the best team possible.

 

[Natebishop3]

Wow.... interesting that he said that CJ has been one of our better defenders but GTJ has been a net negative.

 

[julius]

What are the rules, can we sign Ariza if he gets bought out? I would love to bring him back, even if it means fewer minutes for the kids. Give me the best team possible.

Since he was subsequently traded, I believe they could.

 

[MickZagger]

Little has the potential to be an elite defender. I think by this time next year we’ll talking about him as a starter and part of our main core. Jones Jr. is nice but should be energy off the bench

 

[jlprk]

Seth Partnow, who also writes for The Athletic, but is also a former director of basketball research for the Bucks.

He just uses the same couple of stats you see on this board all the time. He has no insight over the palookas on this board.

 

[e_blazer]

He just uses the same couple of stats you see on this board all the time. He has no insight over the palookas on this board.

The article has more information than my summary. But, yeah, I don’t know that he is the ultimate authority on what ails the Blazers’ defense. The fact that he’s now writing for The Athletic instead of working for an NBA team says something.

 

[B-Roy]

Wow.... interesting that he said that CJ has been one of our better defenders but GTJ has been a net negative.

Matches the eye test this season.

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Wow.... interesting that he said that CJ has been one of our better defenders but GTJ has been a net negative.

Yes and CJ is way more unselfish than Gary. But no, let's trade CJ and start Gary!!!!

 

[James lamphear]

Wow.... interesting that he said that CJ has been one of our better defenders but GTJ has been a net negative.

Stat wise Trent is actually the worst defender we got. Think his per 100 is 120 and the Defense stat is -1.7 if your stat guy that's not good especially when supposed be a 3D guy. Maybe that they can use that a negotiate tool on his next contract.

 

[B-Roy]

What are the rules, can we sign Ariza if he gets bought out? I would love to bring him back, even if it means fewer minutes for the kids. Give me the best team possible.

Pretty sure we can just trade for him. Give them Hood.

 

[illmatic99]

Just read the whole article.

Terrific insight.

https://theathletic.com/2380738/2021/02/19/portland-trail-blazers-defense-stats-contenders/

 

[James lamphear]

Well not good enough defense team to win a championship. We look good when we was switching everything but when we don't not so much. I thought giving away ariza was mistake due to he was a good on ball defender and could hit the corner 3. Olshey wanted more defense but if that was true you don't give away your best ball defender you add players with him. Can you amaige ariza and Covington in the same lineup. Olshey needs to wake up how he wants this team. Quit be so Damn loyal to the players he draft in the 1st round because they pan out then trade them for players that meant your vision. Maybe that's the problem Olshey don't have actual vision how he wants this team to be.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

RoCo, Jones Jr, and Nurk had very little time together on the court. I expect their chemistry on defense will get better if Nurk can stay healthy once he gets back.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

The first thing I see is "Opponents are shooting tops in the league on corner 3s." Something many on here notice every game. Most of these shooters are not covered. For some reason this is under the section that the problem is more roster than coach. What??!! The coach needs to heavily prioritize covering those corner 3 shooters over helping in the paint, where we all know they rarely help anyway. Every pre-game, every post-game , coach needs to remind that this is a priority. If guys aren't complying, warn them they will lose playing time. This is a coaching issue!

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Melo and Kanter "very negative defenders". We can't do without Kanter, his rebounding and offense make up for his defense, and any smaller alternative could be worse. But there is absolutely no reason to play Melo, his offense only makes up for his defense in maybe one of five games. It was a terrible mistake to sign him and he needs to be sat down. I don't care about the optics of signing a future hall of famer and then sitting him. Buy him out or hopefully find a team that will take him in a trade. I have already suggested several teams that have useful players that are also making minimum salaries. This is a failure in leadership.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Trent needs to be coached by somebody who was a great NBA defender. Olshey needs to find that guy and bring him in for a month. Pay him good.

 

[wizenheimer]

in terms of defense, contending, and winning championships, a list of the last 20 NBA champions and their defensive ranking, starting in 2000-01:

Lakers....21st
Lakers....7th
Spurs....3rd
Pistons....2nd
Spurs....1st
Heat....9th
Spurs....2nd
Celtics....1st
Lakers....6th
Lakers....4th
Mavericks....8th
Heat....4th
Heat....9th
Spurs....3rd
Warriors....1st
Cavs....10th
Warriors....2nd
Warriors....11th
Raptors....5th
Lakers....3rd

out of 20 champions, 18 were ranked in the top-10 in defense, and 12 were in the top-5. There was one significant outlier and that was the Lakers 20 years ago, in their middle title of a three-peat. But I'd say that ranking was noise because the year before they ranked 1st and the year after they ranked 7th. The only other kind-of outlier was the Warriors team in 17-18 that ranked 11th. But I remember that team as coasting thru the season and having a lot of "rest days" for players

obviously, these were only the champions. If somebody feels like going thru and posting where the runner-up ranked in defense, that would be interesting, but I'm not going to take the time

my take is that a team won't really be a true contender unless they are at a minimum in the top half of the league in defense. And much better if they are in the top 10. Further, I'm betting that the contenders are consistently in the top-10, and likely in the top-5 in net-rating; the +/- differential of offensive and defensive ratings.

gauging by those stats, I don't think Portland has been anywhere close to contender status since the Pippen/Sabonis teams. Currently they are 27th i defense

if you rank teams currently by defense and then match top defenses with the net rating column right next to defense, it's pretty easy to point to the teams that are the real contenders:



the East is a little wacky and it's possible the Nets are a team that could defy the 20 year trends

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I do believe that Jones and Covington are playing quite well on defense lately and if the management followed my suggestions, this could be a good defense. Of course getting Nurk back will help a lot; supposedly he is going to be in shape when he gets back. Do I think I am smarter and tougher than Olshey/Stotts. Yes, that's the burden I carry in life!

 

[James lamphear]

Nurk to me didn't have a mind set to play basketball beginning this season. Plus he wasn't in great shape but what I will looking at will both of those and his lateral movement did the broken leg effecting that part of the game.

 

[riverman]

Nurk to me didn't have a mind set to play basketball beginning this season. Plus he wasn't in great shape but what I will looking at will both of those and his lateral movement did the broken leg effecting that part of the game.

Nurk probably more than any Blazer feeds off the crowd...he feeds off the crowd even in a suit on the bench...loves the stage...loves to photo bomb...keeps him laughing and up....I think the covid echo chamber games bore him to tears....he's just built that way...I think it effects players in two different ways...players that play better in practice are in their element...players who need the crowd are watching a movie with the sound turned off

 

[B-Roy]

RoCo, Jones Jr, and Nurk had very little time together on the court. I expect their chemistry on defense will get better if Nurk can stay healthy once he gets back.

Doesn't really matter if the team hemorrhages points for 20 minutes a game running Kanter/Melo out there. You can't have this many defensive holes in your rotation and expect to be good, especially when you have two guys at guards that are going to give you a 0-fer for defense for 36 minutes a game.

 

[B-Roy]

The teams pre-2019 (ie. Hark/Aminu) days had no negative defensive players in the rotation besides Dame and CJ, and they were mostly middle of the pack teams. How can we expect this iteration to be as good or better than those teams when we are running Kanter and Melo for 20+ MPG, Hood is a shell of himself and was never a good defender in the first place, and you still have the same issues with Dame and CJ. Just not going to happen until you change the personnel.