wizenheimer
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just for giggles, the history of Vegas over/under win total for Portland in the Dame/CJ era:
* 2015-16....odds = 26.5....Blazers win 44 = 17.5 over
* 2016-17....odds = 46.5....Blazers win 41 = 5.5 under
* 2017-18....odds = 40.5....Blazers win 49 = 8.5 over
* 2018-19....odds = 42.5....Blazers win 53 = 10.5 over
* 2019-20....odds = 45.5....Blazers win 34 = 11.5 under (could have been busted by Covid)
* 2020-21....odds = 41.5....Blazers win 42 = 0.5 over (Blazers won 10 of their last 12 games, otherwise...)
a really wide variance. I didn't check to see if there was the same wide variance for other teams. I doubt it, but I'm not sure
this season's over/under is 43.5 wins
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pretty sure a significant factor Vegas calculates is schedule. Portland's schedule may be the most difficult in the NBA:
* "The Blazers face the toughest first 20 games of the season based on their opponents’ records last season"
* "This season, there are only three stretches – one each for the Grizzlies, Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers — where a team plays eight games in 12 nights. Last season, there were 36, with many of them overlapping".
* there are only two teams that have five sets of 5 games/7 nights: Portland and LAC; only one other team, the Spurs, have more than 3 sets (4)
* "The Hawks lead the league with 12 one-game trips on the schedule, followed by the Sixers (10) and Cleveland Cavaliers (10). The Blazers have just three, with the Pelicans, Spurs, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors having just five each".
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* Rest advantage = Didn’t play the day/night before. Opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back.
^"Rest disadvantage = Playing the second game of a back-to-back. Opponent didn’t play the day/night before.
Over the last three seasons, teams are 488-384 (0.560) in rest-advantage games, 324-200 (0.618) at home and 164-184 (0.471) on the road.
The Pistons have the biggest differential between their number of rest-advantage games and rest-disadvantage games. The Hawks (13 vs. 9), New Orleans Pelicans (11 vs. 7) and Indiana Pacers (14 vs. 11) also have differentials of three or more.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Spurs (9 vs. 13), Nuggets (9 vs. 12), Blazers (8 vs. 11), Charlotte Hornets (11 vs. 14), Minnesota Timberwolves (8 vs. 11) and Orlando Magic (9 vs. 12) have negative differentials of three or more."
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* the first 20 game mark:
"Only four of the 106 teams that have won fewer than seven of their first 20 games have gone on to reach the postseason. The last of those was the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets, who started 6-14, finished as the 6 seed in the East (at 44-38), and actually won a first round series.
On the other end of the spectrum, 92 percent of the 215 teams that have won at least 12 of their first 20 games have gone on to make the playoffs.
The Blazers will play those 20 games against opponents that had a cumulative winning percentage of 0.542 last season, the highest mark for any team’s first 20. Portland’s first 20 games include three against the Clippers, and two each against the Nuggets, Sixers and Phoenix Suns. They also have games against the Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers.
In addition to having the toughest first 20 games in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage from last season, the Blazers are also tied (with New Orleans) for the most back-to-backs (5) in the first 20 games. They have 14 back-to-backs for the season, and six of the 14 are in a 31-day stretch from Oct. 31 to Nov. 30."
https://www.nba.com/news/how-rest-road-trips-and-other-factors-played-out-in-2021-22-schedule
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that seems to be a pretty daunting set of schedule circumstances and it might go a long way in explaining Portland's seemingly low over/under of 43.5
* 2015-16....odds = 26.5....Blazers win 44 = 17.5 over
* 2016-17....odds = 46.5....Blazers win 41 = 5.5 under
* 2017-18....odds = 40.5....Blazers win 49 = 8.5 over
* 2018-19....odds = 42.5....Blazers win 53 = 10.5 over
* 2019-20....odds = 45.5....Blazers win 34 = 11.5 under (could have been busted by Covid)
* 2020-21....odds = 41.5....Blazers win 42 = 0.5 over (Blazers won 10 of their last 12 games, otherwise...)
a really wide variance. I didn't check to see if there was the same wide variance for other teams. I doubt it, but I'm not sure
this season's over/under is 43.5 wins
*********************************************************
pretty sure a significant factor Vegas calculates is schedule. Portland's schedule may be the most difficult in the NBA:
* "The Blazers face the toughest first 20 games of the season based on their opponents’ records last season"
* "This season, there are only three stretches – one each for the Grizzlies, Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers — where a team plays eight games in 12 nights. Last season, there were 36, with many of them overlapping".
* there are only two teams that have five sets of 5 games/7 nights: Portland and LAC; only one other team, the Spurs, have more than 3 sets (4)
* "The Hawks lead the league with 12 one-game trips on the schedule, followed by the Sixers (10) and Cleveland Cavaliers (10). The Blazers have just three, with the Pelicans, Spurs, Phoenix Suns and Toronto Raptors having just five each".
-----------------------
* Rest advantage = Didn’t play the day/night before. Opponent is playing the second game of a back-to-back.
^"Rest disadvantage = Playing the second game of a back-to-back. Opponent didn’t play the day/night before.
Over the last three seasons, teams are 488-384 (0.560) in rest-advantage games, 324-200 (0.618) at home and 164-184 (0.471) on the road.
The Pistons have the biggest differential between their number of rest-advantage games and rest-disadvantage games. The Hawks (13 vs. 9), New Orleans Pelicans (11 vs. 7) and Indiana Pacers (14 vs. 11) also have differentials of three or more.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Spurs (9 vs. 13), Nuggets (9 vs. 12), Blazers (8 vs. 11), Charlotte Hornets (11 vs. 14), Minnesota Timberwolves (8 vs. 11) and Orlando Magic (9 vs. 12) have negative differentials of three or more."
---------------------------
* the first 20 game mark:
"Only four of the 106 teams that have won fewer than seven of their first 20 games have gone on to reach the postseason. The last of those was the 2013-14 Brooklyn Nets, who started 6-14, finished as the 6 seed in the East (at 44-38), and actually won a first round series.
On the other end of the spectrum, 92 percent of the 215 teams that have won at least 12 of their first 20 games have gone on to make the playoffs.
The Blazers will play those 20 games against opponents that had a cumulative winning percentage of 0.542 last season, the highest mark for any team’s first 20. Portland’s first 20 games include three against the Clippers, and two each against the Nuggets, Sixers and Phoenix Suns. They also have games against the Grizzlies, Golden State Warriors and Los Angeles Lakers.
In addition to having the toughest first 20 games in regard to cumulative opponent winning percentage from last season, the Blazers are also tied (with New Orleans) for the most back-to-backs (5) in the first 20 games. They have 14 back-to-backs for the season, and six of the 14 are in a 31-day stretch from Oct. 31 to Nov. 30."
https://www.nba.com/news/how-rest-road-trips-and-other-factors-played-out-in-2021-22-schedule
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that seems to be a pretty daunting set of schedule circumstances and it might go a long way in explaining Portland's seemingly low over/under of 43.5
