Post Draft Speculation

[wizenheimer]

It seems like Derozan is there for the taking with the Lakers out and the Clippers not having cap room (or many traceable assets). I think SA would accommodate a sign n trade if we had anything to offer.

I doubt Neil has the balls, but CJ and Jones to the Knicks for cap relief and a few picks, a pick or two (2nd rounders?) to SA and Derozan and a $20 million trade exemption (assuming Derozan signs for $20M per year) would work. With the cap exemption we could throw all the picks from the deal plus a few more to Detroit for Grant. They'd then be under the cap and have more picks for the future.

Lillard/Simons
Powell/Little
Covington/Derozan
Grant/Derozan
Nurkic/MLE (Ibaka)

That team would have a nasty edge and provide lots of spacing for Derozan. Doubt he's ready to take on a 6th man role at this point, but he could get 30 MPG, run the second unit, and sub O for D with Covington at the end of games.

if the Blazers receive a player in a S&T, they'd be hard-capped. I don't think that's a situation Portland would consider

as for the TPE in the situation like you describe, I'm pretty sure the Blazers would not have a 20M TPE, but rather a couple of 10M TPE's

 

[calvin natt]

Not only is Portland not getting closer to a championship, they are moving further away from one. They are aiming for the same window as Los Angeles (both), Golden State, Utah, Denver, Dallas, Memphis, and Phoenix. And aren’t better than any of them except Dallas I suppose. If and when these teams decline, teams like Houston, SAC, SA and OKC will have waited their turn and assembled picks and assets and presumably will be competitive again. Portland will just cruise along in the middle. Then Lillard will be 35. Even if they somehow land Simmons, that won’t be enough to overtake the first group. They’ll need another really good player. It just feels so average and mediocre and content.

 

[blazerkor]

It seems like Derozan is there for the taking with the Lakers out and the Clippers not having cap room (or many traceable assets). I think SA would accommodate a sign n trade if we had anything to offer.

I doubt Neil has the balls, but CJ and Jones to the Knicks for cap relief and a few picks, a pick or two (2nd rounders?) to SA and Derozan and a $20 million trade exemption (assuming Derozan signs for $20M per year) would work. With the cap exemption we could throw all the picks from the deal plus a few more to Detroit for Grant. They'd then be under the cap and have more picks for the future.

Lillard/Simons
Powell/Little
Covington/Derozan
Grant/Derozan
Nurkic/MLE (Ibaka)

That team would have a nasty edge and provide lots of spacing for Derozan. Doubt he's ready to take on a 6th man role at this point, but he could get 30 MPG, run the second unit, and sub O for D with Covington at the end of games.

I think the way this trade may logically work is that we trade CJ and Jones to the Knicks for Toppin, Quickley and draft capital. Toppin and Quickley and some of that draft capital for Grant. That would leave Detroit with additional cap space. That would get us Grant, a 20.5M trade exception and the remaining draft capital. We could then work the sign and trade for Derozan (if that's who we really want) for the trade exception and draft capital. I don't think Detroit is taking a trade exception and picks from the Knicks and Dallas for Grant.

The Derozan sign and trade would leave us hard capped. If you estimate that Norm costs 22M that would put us at 139M having filled 9 roster spots so we would have around 7M to fill the other 4 spots to get to the minimum of a 13 man roster. Greg Brown would take out just under a million of that. It would leave us 6M to sign a GLeaguer for under a million and then we could get two actual veterans who would cost some place under 2.6M a piece. So I guess it could work but we would be hard capped. The MLE would not be an option.

If we didn't go for DeRozan with our TPE but instead took someone who was already under contract that would give a team cap relief and draft capital, then it wouldn't be a sign and trade and I don't think we would be hard capped which would leave us the ability to sign as many vet mins as we want and use the taxpayer MLE... I'm pretty sure.

 

[illmatic99]

Post draft, i am further convinced that these three need to be our targets in trades. The draft indicated exactly the direction these teams are moving in away from vets and rebuilding around a younger core.

1. Gordon Hayward -- looks horribly miscast as the overpaid veteran on a team full of 19-25 yr olds + Plumlee. I know MJ and Kupchak are desperate to make the playoffs, but Hayward makes very little sense on that team to me.

2. Siakam -- Drafted a guy who play his position and potentially his role. Lowry on the outs. Yet again, a guy hovering around 30 on a max deal.

3. Grant.

Now the challenge for us and the only real avenue to increase our ceiling as a team is to be able to land one of these guys without giving up CJ. And we have to retain Powell to not lose a valuable trade chip for the deadline. Probably a pipedream for to be able to get Siakam without trading CJ, but the other two.... that's the hope. For example, if we replace Roco with Grant, does that make us a better team?

 

[B-Roy]

I think the way this trade may logically work is that we trade CJ and Jones to the Knicks for Toppin, Quickley and draft capital. Toppin and Quickley and some of that draft capital for Grant. That would leave Detroit with additional cap space. That would get us Grant, a 20.5M trade exception and the remaining draft capital. We could then work the sign and trade for Derozan (if that's who we really want) for the trade exception and draft capital. I don't think Detroit is taking a trade exception and picks from the Knicks and Dallas for Grant.

The Derozan sign and trade would leave us hard capped. If you estimate that Norm costs 22M that would put us at 139M having filled 9 roster spots so we would have around 7M to fill the other 4 spots to get to the minimum of a 13 man roster. Greg Brown would take out just under a million of that. It would leave us 6M to sign a GLeaguer for under a million and then we could get two actual veterans who would cost some place under 2.6M a piece. So I guess it could work but we would be hard capped. The MLE would not be an option.

If we didn't go for DeRozan with our TPE but instead took someone who was already under contract that would give a team cap relief and draft capital, then it wouldn't be a sign and trade and I don't think we would be hard capped which would leave us the ability to sign as many vet mins as we want and use the taxpayer MLE... I'm pretty sure.

The apron will be around 143M. Getting hard capped is not an option as far as I'm concerned, it will be almost impossible without some super diligent planning with regards to FA contracts and which guys to target for the minimum deals. There is little to no margin for error and while it may be technically possible, expecting Olshey to be able to operate under such strict handicaps is well.....about as good as his drafting ability in the 1st round.


Another thing regarding getting hardcapped: little to no flexibility during the season. Something Olshey has always valued highly.

 

[blazerkor]

Not only is Portland not getting closer to a championship, they are moving further away from one. They are aiming for the same window as Los Angeles (both), Golden State, Utah, Denver, Dallas, Memphis, and Phoenix. And aren’t better than any of them except Dallas I suppose. If and when these teams decline, teams like Houston, SAC, SA and OKC will have waited their turn and assembled picks and assets and presumably will be competitive again. Portland will just cruise along in the middle. Then Lillard will be 35. Even if they somehow land Simmons, that won’t be enough to overtake the first group. They’ll need another really good player. It just feels so average and mediocre and content.

I think in terms of Simmons it depends on what he can become. I think his upside is a player just as good as Dame and his floor is a perennial all star. Then you have to consider what Norm would give us if he was given more shots than he'd been given before. I also think the team would function at a higher level if we got a three and D post instead of Nurk. I think we might be able to get Bobby Portis for the taxpayer MLE if we promised him a starting spot. I think we could get Boucher and Flynn from Toronto for Nurk. Assuming we could get Simmons for CJ and every future draft asset we have (picks and swaps).

Dame, Norm, RoCo, Simmons, Portis, Boucher, Ant, Nas, DJJ and Flynn is going to be a damn good defensive team for a long time and who could stop this team from scoring? So much shooting, so much athleticism and skill. I think that's a team just as good as those other teams you listed that we'd be competing with.

However, if Neil wasn't willing to sell out every draft asset we have and CJ for Simmons... and do it quickly or make some Siakam trade; I don't think Norm will re-sign to play SF with the idea in his head of how many touches and shots he can get while playing with Dame and CJ. So I think if CJ isn't moved really soon that Norm will walk for nothing, if he can get equal money elsewhere. Then trying to get up to the level of those other teams does become impossible and Dame will ask out. Then Olshey will get fired and they will bring a new GM in within a month and that GM would spend all of September tearing this team down into young players and future picks. You still might have to deal with hoping for the potential of Simmons if the rebuild happens.

 

[B-Roy]

Post draft, i am further convinced that these three need to be our targets in trades. The draft indicated exactly the direction these teams are moving in away from vets and rebuilding around a younger core.

1. Gordon Hayward -- looks horribly miscast as the overpaid veteran on a team full of 19-25 yr olds + Plumlee. I know MJ and Kupchak are desperate to make the playoffs, but Hayward makes very little sense on that team to me.

2. Siakam -- Drafted a guy who play his position and potentially his role. Lowry on the outs. Yet again, a guy hovering around 30 on a max deal.

3. Grant.

Now the challenge for us and the only real avenue to increase our ceiling as a team is to be able to land one of these guys without giving up CJ. And we have to retain Powell to not lose a valuable trade chip for the deadline. Probably a pipedream for to be able to get Siakam without trading CJ, but the other two.... that's the hope. For example, if we replace Roco with Grant, does that make us a better team?

I don't think Hayward is really on the market, at least not for a rebuilding package. Like you said, that team is stupidly chasing the playoffs and they went all out last year to even sign Hayward. They stretched Batum for him, and to just get a few firsts for him in a year....I don't really understand it.

Plus he has a 15% trade kicker that goes on the books of the team acquiring him. Not that it would hamper a deal, but it's a consideration.

 

[Phatguysrule]

I don't think you can keep Powell without trading CJ. You can enter the season with one or the other, but not both.

 

[blazerkor]

I don't think you can keep Powell without trading CJ. You can enter the season with one or the other, but not both.

The scary part about that is that we don't have until the beginning of the season. If the Knicks want Powell which they reportedly do, how are we going to win Powell over them? They can offer to play him at SG, they can offer him more touches and shots and they can most definitely offer him just as much money as we can because they have the ability to offer two max contracts this off season. Not two super max contracts but two max deals.

I don't think they would use max money on Norm but they might be willing to get in a bidding war with us and go as high as 25M... to me that would mean us having to outbid them at 26M which is a huge overpay. It would also take us into the season with three guys 6'4" and under making right near 100M.

 

[B-Roy]

Given Neil's conservative nature, I don't think he will even really consider realistic CJ trade scenarios until Powell has either committed or signed on the dotted line.

 

[BBert]

They can afford it

 

[BBert]

I have to ask...have you seen anything, at all, that shows Olshey is even seriously shopping CJ, let alone aggressively shopping him?

for instance, I noticed that the initial chatter about Philly and Simmons included the Blazers as a potential suitor. However, when I read the details of the chatter, the few times there were details, it was almost all speculation

but, over the last week, the reports of the teams in 'serious' talks for Simmons never included Portland.

personally, I think Olshey really really wants to rinse-repeat the Dame/CJ experiment for another season. He wants a last chance to prove himself right. And the combination of Seattle ambivalence and next summer's Blazer cap will give him a green light to do so. And by then, Dame may very well be demanding a trade

I haven't heard anything substantial to indicate he is. But if he isn't, he's a dolt.

Is Olshey a dolt? Dang, I should have made that question its own thread.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I haven't heard anything substantial to indicate he is. But if he isn't, he's a dolt.

Is Olshey a dolt? Dang, I should have made that question its own thread.

I mean.... Why not?

 

[BlayZa]

so now carmelo n rudy gay linked to LA?

wtf are we actually even doing?

dame n cj still huge twitter bffs - i cant see how we can move anyone at this point. the one we need to move, dame loves, the ones we want to move, nobody wants.

 

[glazeduck]

I'm really struggling with some of these reactions of fans freaking the fuck out right now...

We went into last night with no picks and came out of it with a high upside defender and a second interesting prospect on a 2-way contract. Meanwhile, our most likely target is still, probably, our most likely target, but the longer we wait, the more reasonable his price gets and one of our biggest competitors for said target is probably out of those discussions. Had we fired Olshey and hired literally ANY other GM, everyone would be singing his praises for turning chicken crap into, well, something at least edible.

I understand that we all wanted to see a massive franchise-swinging trade last night, believe me, I do. But it's not like all of our options are all of a sudden gone, if anything they've improved. Maybe Neil tried his ass off to trade CJ, maybe he didn't. Maybe his top priority is resigning Norman, maybe it's not. But at least wait until there's something to actually get upset about...

 

[SlyPokerCat]

I'm really struggling with some of these reactions of fans freaking the fuck out right now...

We went into last night with no picks and came out of it with a high upside defender and a second interesting prospect on a 2-way contract. Meanwhile, our most likely target is still, probably, our most likely target, but the longer we wait, the more reasonable his price gets and one of our biggest competitors for said target is probably out of those discussions. Had we fired Olshey and hired literally ANY other GM, everyone would be singing his praises for turning chicken crap into, well, something at least edible.

I understand that we all wanted to see a massive franchise-swinging trade last night, believe me, I do. But it's not like all of our options are all of a sudden gone, if anything they've improved. Maybe Neil tried his ass off to trade CJ, maybe he didn't. Maybe his top priority is resigning Norman, maybe it's not. But at least wait until there's something to actually get upset about...

Folks this is exhibit A of a reasonable take. Olshey did grab a couple low risk potential guys. We had no picks to start the night. It is reasonable for us to see this through throughout the summer and see what Olshey does this one last time after Dame is applying public pressure(even though none of us have confidence in him).

The problem with this is, once Olshey doesn't do shit, we will see these same comments at the beginning of the season. That's when this comment becomes delirious/next level homer. And you all know it is coming.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I'm really struggling with some of these reactions of fans freaking the fuck out right now...

We went into last night with no picks and came out of it with a high upside defender and a second interesting prospect on a 2-way contract. Meanwhile, our most likely target is still, probably, our most likely target, but the longer we wait, the more reasonable his price gets and one of our biggest competitors for said target is probably out of those discussions. Had we fired Olshey and hired literally ANY other GM, everyone would be singing his praises for turning chicken crap into, well, something at least edible.

I understand that we all wanted to see a massive franchise-swinging trade last night, believe me, I do. But it's not like all of our options are all of a sudden gone, if anything they've improved. Maybe Neil tried his ass off to trade CJ, maybe he didn't. Maybe his top priority is resigning Norman, maybe it's not. But at least wait until there's something to actually get upset about...

On the other hand just about every team in the league had 1-4 picks last night and the fans could make a good argument for the merits of any of those picks. I don't think there is any draft analyst who says we got a steal with our pick or even fair value at that point in the draft. And most other teams have also already signed two way players with upside. I'm happy that Olshey is thinking about the future but I don't think he did anything special at all last night.

 

[Fairly-Hard]

I'm really struggling with some of these reactions of fans freaking the fuck out right now...

We went into last night with no picks and came out of it with a high upside defender and a second interesting prospect on a 2-way contract. Meanwhile, our most likely target is still, probably, our most likely target, but the longer we wait, the more reasonable his price gets and one of our biggest competitors for said target is probably out of those discussions. Had we fired Olshey and hired literally ANY other GM, everyone would be singing his praises for turning chicken crap into, well, something at least edible.

I understand that we all wanted to see a massive franchise-swinging trade last night, believe me, I do. But it's not like all of our options are all of a sudden gone, if anything they've improved. Maybe Neil tried his ass off to trade CJ, maybe he didn't. Maybe his top priority is resigning Norman, maybe it's not. But at least wait until there's something to actually get upset about...

You been posting here since 2009?
Where have you been? Can you please post a bit more?

 

[glazeduck]

You been posting here since 2009?
Where have you been? Can you please post a bit more?

Ha thanks. Yeah, I'm around. Read the board everyday, mostly lurk. Don't post more due to young kids, busy job, a crappy house with too many projects and just generally got soured by some of the cultural stuff on this board. I will say some of that has gotten better though.

 

[glazeduck]

On the other hand just about every team in the league had 1-4 picks last night and the fans could make a good argument for the merits of any of those picks. I don't think there is any draft analyst who says we got a steal with our pick or even fair value at that point in the draft. And most other teams have also already signed two way players with upside. I'm happy that Olshey is thinking about the future but I don't think he did anything special at all last night.

Don't get me wrong, the draft is one of my favorite nights of the year, I watched every pick hoping something major would happen. But the offseason isn't a race. No one gets awarded wins because random analysts decide moments later that they "won" the draft. There is no reward for "first"... the reward comes in quality decision making.

Our picks for last night were used a season ago, and you could argue that, without Roco, Dame could've forced his way out last year.

Complaining about having a terrible offseason before FA even starts feels like questioning a Van Gogh after the first brush strokes. By all means, Olshey should be run out of town if he can't make some big improvements this offseason, but complaining about only doing a few smaller things on a draft night were we had no picks is asinine to me. Save your anger, you might need it in a few months.

 

[LayneStaley]

Fuck 1st rounders, CJ/2 1s for Simmons sounds good to me. If no move is made it tells me Neil has already decided he’s trading Dame.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

Don't get me wrong, the draft is one of my favorite nights of the year, I watched every pick hoping something major would happen. But the offseason isn't a race. No one gets awarded wins because random analysts decide moments later that they "won" the draft. There is no reward for "first"... the reward comes in quality decision making.

Our picks for last night were used a season ago, and you could argue that, without Roco, Dame could've forced his way out last year.

Complaining about having a terrible offseason before FA even starts feels like questioning a Van Gogh after the first brush strokes. By all means, Olshey should be run out of town if he can't make some big improvements this offseason, but complaining about only doing a few smaller things on a draft night were we had no picks is asinine to me. Save your anger, you might need it in a few months.

I assume that when you refer to "anger', that you are referring to what you think you see in some other posters? Myself, I am just saying that so far Olshey has done nothing more than any run of the mill, average GM would have done. I'm hoping for better.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

I find it fascinating that after all this time people are still willing to give Olshey the benefit of the doubt.

 

[blazerkor]

I find it fascinating that after all this time people are still willing to give Olshey the benefit of the doubt.

I know I'm worried but just hoping because the stakes are really high this off season.

 

[Buffalo Custard]

Serious question folks: if other "small market" teams like the Bucks, Suns, and Hawks can build contenders - why can't Portland? The simple and obvious answer is that those teams are better run than the Blazers. Whose fault is that, if not Olshey's?