Duren has a very high ceiling IMO
Jalen Duren would've nice for Portland. I was big on both Jalen Duren and Walker Kessler and felt either would've been nice if Portland acquired the New Orleans pick......so far, it looks like they're doing decently in the league, wouldn't you say?
Now, I'm not trying to be a revisionist, pretending that I would've 100% selected Jokic if I was an NBA GM back in 2014. Instead, do you all want to know why I was big on those two particular centers?
Because, here is a neat threshold that I found in my research:
Since the modern era (1980s-present), traditional centers (the tall and muscular ones) that play a decent role on their Division I caliber teams, who averaged
12ppg/8.5 rpg per 28 minutes (28 mpg is reference to Shaq's freshmen year) on decent FG% (ex. 54+ FG%)
as college freshmen, have gone on to have good to great careers in the NBA.
Now, obviously, the talent level varies but at minimum, they can make for productive starter material or elite back ups on playoff bound teams. In which case, let's have a look at the players who would qualify under these terms:
Shaq, David Robinson, Hakeem, Ralph Sampson, Embiid, KAT, DeMarcus Cousins, Ayton, Sam Bowie (yes, he probably would've been a pretty good player, actually), Greg Oden (would've been a great player).
There are 'lesser' prospects who aren't bad, either....Wendell Carter Jr., Robert Williams III, Hassan Whiteside. Obviously, Jalen Duren and Walker Kessler fit the profile and have put up good rookie numbers. Does Chet Holmgren count? I'm not sure...he's not exactly a traditional center due to his skinny frame but he does produce the numbers we're looking for.
Now, that doesn't mean players who don't meet the threshold aren't going to be great players. For example, Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning, Bam Adebayo missed the cut off by a slight amount.
Rather, to me, it suggests that when you can put up that level of production relative to your age, you are probably a step above everyone else that you can come into the NBA and be productive. Again, the talent level varies. Blazer fans are likely familiar with Whiteside's level of play so you can't just look at stats alone. However, even a player like Whiteside can contribute heavily to wins or be a good back up center.
In this year's draft, there doesn't seem to be anyone else other than Zach Edey, who barely misses the cut off point by around .1 rebound per game. Zach Edey's game is slow but he has excellent footwork and height. It's possible he could be a good back up center, somewhere. If he does put up stats, which I think he can, it'll probably be like Hassan Whiteside or Enes Kanter, where it looks good but due to his mobility (or lack of), the defenses might take advantage of his presence.
