Yeah, when is that going to happen? In 2016-17? Because that's what these preseason predictions are talking about. Sure, he's just entering his 3rd season, like C.J. was last year, but I don't see him breaking out like C.J. did. Hood played 3600 minutes in his first two seasons. C.J. played 1450. Hood made mild improvements from season 1 to season 2. C.J. has shown significant improvement every year he's been in the league. I doubt Hood will ever be a star, but if he is someday, I don't see that day being the 2016-17 season.
You say that like it's a good thing. Exum was spectacularly horrible, downright historically bad, his rookie season. He wasn't just the worst player to start at least half of his team's games, by a wide margin, he was also the worst player in the league to play at least 1000 minutes, also by a wide margin. I get that he was very young and making the transition to starting NBA point guard is tough for young players. But here's the thing, he'll also be very young this season - and he's coming back from a serious injury. Like Hood, he has great size for his position, and may eventually develop into a star player, but I don't see that happening in 2016-17. In fact, I see any minutes Exum plays in 2016-17 as a net negative THIS YEAR. Any minutes he gets this season will be for development purposes, as a long term investment in the future, not for immediate help.
Favors is damn solid, He will be again this year, like he was last year (when UTA won 40 games) and like he was the year before (when UTA won 38 games). He'll get his 18/9, like he did last year and the year before. And, like I said, that's damn solid performance from the PF position. But, going into his 7th season in the league, with over 11,000 minutes of playing time under his belt, I don't see where any improvement comes from that takes UTA from lottery to HCA in the West. Favors will be just as good as he has been, but I don't see him improving enough to make a huge difference in their record. This isn't a Jermaine O'Neal situation where Favors is suddenly going to breakout. Favors is what he is, which is damn good, but he played more minutes his rookie year than Jermaine did his first three seasons combined. Very good player who has reached his ceiling, or pretty close to it.
Gobert also is what he is, at this point. He's a great rim protector with a very limited offensive game. He actually regressed a bit in 2015-2016 (his per-36 numbers and shooting percentages were all down across the board), but that can probably be blamed on his injuries. If healthy, he should return to his 2014-15 form, when UTA won 38 games. Again, I'm not seeing any huge improvement here that would take this team from lottery to HCA.
And, maybe that's the problem in general. When was the last time a UTA player had a breakout season. Who was the last UTA player to make an all star team? They've had quite a few lottery picks the last several years, both their own and ones acquired via trade. How many of those lottery picks have justified their draft position? It seems like they are more likely to draft someone that doesn't pan out and they give up on before their rookie contracts up than they are to draft a future all star. Gordon Hayward seems to be their only lottery pick in the last 10 years that has developed into a solid player, and he was drafted six years ago. In the mean time, we have drafted Dame and C.J. who have both easily exceeded their draft positions. Maybe UTA doesn't draft well, or maybe they just don't have good player development personnel. In either case, their players seem to plateau at a fairly young age and don't show much future improvement. Maybe that will change in 2016-17, but if it does, it will be the first time since the Jerry Sloan era.
And, it is this lack of development of their young players that caused UTA to bring in veterans like Joe Johnson, Boris Diaw and George Hill to try to get them to finally get back to the post season for the first time in six years.
BNM
