Prediction: Blazers will have the 8th seed all season long...

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magnifier661 said:
I suspect Paul may just do that though. It could be possible that Allen was jocking for the new CBA because he doesn't mind paying the tax. That's only if he sees a possible contention team. If we make the playoffs and possibly take a team to 6 or 7 in the first round; Allen's pocket book may open up.
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So is that why the Blazers just went through 2 rounds of layoffs? Doesn't add up.
 
Nikolokolus said:
So is that why the Blazers just went through 2 rounds of layoffs? Doesn't add up.
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Well at that time, the CBA negotiations were taking place. If Allen wants the new CBA to pass; then he can't go around spending the farm on players. Also, during that stretch there was a lot of questions.
1.) Will Roy stay healthy?
2.) Will Oden ever fucking play?
3.) Do we have an answer at PG?
4.) Will we ever get a decent GM?
5.) Will we have a coach that can coach a talented team?

During that stretch, we had a possible dominant trio of Roy, Aldridge and Oden. We all know how that worked for us. There was also question about Roy's max contract still being on our cap. Once the new CBA gave amnesty to a team; then we could start from ground zero.

Now if this team actually makes the playoffs and gives the team a run for their money in the first round; then the team really only needs role players and specialists. It's pretty apparent that our bench is insanely terrible. With even a shit bench, our team is 4 games over .500. Imagine the win total if we actually had an average bench?

Then you add the emergence of Batum and the unimaginable production and leadership of Lillard. Lillard will only get better. Aldridge is already getting better on the defensive end and Batum is really starting to blossom as a playmaker and "scoring without the ball".

So what is it that we truly need?

1.) Better defense
2.) Better bench
3.) More efficient team rebounding
4.) More efficient paint scoring.

Well sometimes you can score in the paint more with good defense. Get a steal, block or good rebound and run the other way. Obviously most of the scoring will be on the break; which leads to points in the paint.

To add on these needs; you don't need "max players" or "All-stars". You need journey men like a Battie (Defense) or Reddick (scoring). You look for players with playoff experience to help get past that hump. These type of bench players are getting around 3-4 mil per for guards, 5-6 for swings/PF and 7-8 for centers. All of these players are going to be coming off the bench; which leads us to only one player in question. How do we get a starting 7 foot center?

That's going to cost us around 10-12 mil per. We obviously need someone that can defend and rebound. So we must pay for that type of talent. Hickson would be a perfect compliment off the bench; but I think his price will be around 9 mil; which is 4-5 more mil for a back-up role player.

So if we renounce Hickson; then we have that 12 mil to offer a center. Or we could muster a sign and trade with Hickson this off-season for someone's redundant center. Or maybe Hickson really likes Portland and will be willing to sign a multi-year 5-6 mil per contract; which is unrealistic but one can dream right? Now that our cap is flexed; we still have Max MLE and Vet mins. Max MLE could be used for Reddick and Vet MLE can be used to sign some journeymen just wanting to be on a winning organization.
 
Mags, none of that addresses the notion of PA getting ready to go on a spending spree.
 
Nikolokolus said:
Mags, none of that addresses the notion of PA getting ready to go on a spending spree.
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You're right man, but it's a step to get past the first round. Then once Allen understands we really have a shot; then we can pull a trade like the ones we did in the Summer of 1999. Sending a group of players to land one marquee player. Then we use more MAX MLE or MLE's to get a bench. Then we would be in the luxury threshold.
 
Nikolokolus said:
If you're satisfied with a team that is OK, but will never be great (i.e. in serious position to contend) then fuck it, we're set.

I'll be curious to see if your tone changes in 3 months after the brutal stretch of the schedule we have coming up. The law of averages are about to catch up with this team.
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Neither you or I have control over whether they win or lose. You're acting like I have a choice and you want me to choose losing. It is what it is. It's not my fault if we make the playoffs.
 
magnifier661 said:
You're right man, but it's a step to get past the first round. Then once Allen understands we really have a shot; then we can pull a trade like the ones we did in the Summer of 1999. Sending a group of players to land one marquee player. Then we use more MAX MLE or MLE's to get a bench. Then we would be in the luxury threshold.
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What's a step to getting past the first round? Adding a guy like Pekovic for ~12 million? Yeah, maybe (if they can also draft/sign some bench depth and maybe an upgrade at the 2) but just standing pat and keeping Hickson and then rounding out the roster with an MLE level guy and some vet minimum players probably guarantees this team tops out at around an 8th-6th seed and more early exits.

I realize most don't believe this because this team has exceeded most people's expectations for this year, but this isn't a sustainable playoff level team. They're fringe at best right now and some middling talent added to the bench might shore up some weaknesses, but it doesn't add enough firepower to contend.
 
KingSpeed said:
Neither you or I have control over whether they win or lose. You're acting like I have a choice and you want me to choose losing. It is what it is. It's not my fault if we make the playoffs.
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Says the guy with the power to hex the team into guaranteed losses when he goes to their games ...
 
Nikolokolus said:
I realize most don't believe this because this team has exceeded most people's expectations for this year, but this isn't a sustainable playoff level team. They're fringe at best right now and some middling talent added to the bench might shore up some weaknesses, but it doesn't add enough firepower to contend.
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I do agree that the Blazers are seriously exceeding expectations. Anyone that says otherwise is just kidding themselves.
 
Nik- what do you think we as fans should do? And how will that help us contend?
 
magnifier661 said:
I do agree that the Blazers are seriously exceeding expectations. Anyone that says otherwise is just kidding themselves.
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I picked us to go 41-41 as long as there were no major injuries. We added a near All Star PG who dominated summer league to join an All Star big man and an improving SF. We are playing exactly as I expected. Look up the expectations thread. Other people said the same thing. As did Bill Simmons.
 
KingSpeed said:
Nik- what do you think we as fans should do? And how will that help us contend?
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"We" as fans, should be patient with a multiple year rebuild and try to take a longer view ... at the very least it would make talking about this team a lot more bearable for me.
 
Nikolokolus said:
"We" as fans, should be patient with a multiple year rebuild and try to take a longer view ... at the very least it would make talking about this team a lot more bearable for me.
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How does one "be patient"? What exactly are we supposed to do? The front office can be patient with their decision-making. But what do WE do? What can we do that has any effect? Post 30 win predictions like you did? Agree with MM's trade proposals? Hope that we lose games? And how does this help the team long term? WE HAVE NO SAY IN THE MATTER. They are winning and I am going to enjoy it. You can hate it if you want but your hatred of the winning and us fans who root for them will not improve our chances of contending. I think we have three great pieces to build around and I hope we make the playoffs. But my thoughts and hopes have no control over the matter so don't get mad at me or frustrated with me. IT IS WHAT IT IS. Geesh.
 
KingSpeed said:
I picked us to go 41-41 as long as there were no major injuries. We added a near All Star PG who dominated summer league to join an All Star big man and an improving SF. We are playing exactly as I expected. Look up the expectations thread. Other people said the same thing. As did Bill Simmons.
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Actually they are exceeding your expectations. They are 4 games over .500 and were 6 games a couple games ago.
 
Plus 41-41 wouldn't make the playoffs so if you are calling for playoffs (which honestly I am not convinced about - but some are) then they would be exceeding your expectations.
 
Breaking Newe: Paul Allen is sending out ballots to the fans. If we vote YES, Lillard and Aldridge will be held out for the rest of the season in an effort to get a draft pick. If we vote NO, all the players will continue to play and make an honest effort to win. So the decision is OURS.
 
magnifier661 said:
Actually they are exceeding your expectations. They are 4 games over .500 and were 6 games a couple games ago.
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No. We are 3 games above .500. We were never six. And I picked 41-41 finish. We are in a good position to do that. I didn't pick our January 15th record.
 
KeepOnRollin said:
Plus 41-41 wouldn't make the playoffs so if you are calling for playoffs (which honestly I am not convinced about - but some are) then they would be exceeding your expectations.
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Read the first post in this thread.
 
For the record, I hope we win 50+ and get at least the 5th seed.
 
KingSpeed said:
How do you know?
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Well for one it hasn't happened in the last 5 full-season years. That doesn't mean it can't happen but odds are much more likely that it would take 48 to be in the playoffs (so if we are 1 game out then we have 47) then for it to take 42.

8th seed has average 48 wins that last 5 years. Two years it took 50 wins.
 
KeepOnRollin said:
Well for one it hasn't happened in the last 5 full-season years. That doesn't mean it can't happen but odds are much more likely that it would take 48 to be in the playoffs (so if we are 1 game out then we have 47) then for it to take 42.

8th seed has average 48 wins that last 5 years. Two years it took 50 wins.
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If only we were in the East Coast
 
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