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Outlaw is the guy they would get rid of if Millsap were signed, not Joel (or else, Travis just wouldn't play at the 4 anymore). LaMarcus isn't even a good defender against other power forwards, much less centers. Again, try to remember how rough it was when we had to play Brian Grant on centers. Well Brian was a heck of a lot tougher than LaMarcus will ever be.
Obviously he's much better suited against 4s than 5s, but he the margin when he plays center isn't so detrimental that it can't be workable for parts of games and depending on matchups.
PLAYER PER OPER Diff Full Games*
ALDRIDGE PF 20.8 15.4 +5.4 103.3
ALDRIDGE C 20.0 18.2 +1.8 39.4
MILLSAP PF 19.2 16.3 +2.9 100.0
MILLSAP C 21.4 11.2 +10.2 6.6
*Full Games = Total Minutes At Position / 48
ALDRIDGE - PF PER OPER Diff Full Games
2006-2007 16.4 12.6 +3.8 8.2
2007-2008 20.7 15.9 +4.8 39.4
2008-2009 21.6 15.5 +6.1 55.8
COMBINED 20.8 15.4 +5.4 103.3
ALDRIDGE - C PER OPER Diff Full Games
2006-2007 19.1 16.1 +3.0 19.7
2007-2008 21.1 19.3 +1.8 13.9
2008-2009 20.2 22.8 -2.6 5.7
COMBINED 20.0 18.2 +1.8 39.4
MILLSAP - PF PER OPER Diff Full Games
2006-2007 18.9 15.3 +3.6 26.2
2007-2008 17.7 16.9 +0.8 33.6
2008-2009 20.7 16.5 +4.2 40.2
COMBINED 19.2 16.3 +2.9 100.0
MILLSAP - C PER OPER Diff Full Games
2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
2007-2008 24.7 8.9 +15.8 0.8
2008-2009 20.9 11.5 +9.4 5.7
COMBINED 21.4 11.2 +10.2 6.6
Wrong.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08POR11.HTM
Aldridge's PER at power forward: 21.6
Opponent PER at power forward: 15.5
Aldridge's PER at center: 20.2
Opponent PER at center: 22.8
LMA's overall defensive rating: 92.6
Obviously he's much better suited against 4s than 5s, but he the margin when he plays center isn't so detrimental that it can't be workable for parts of games and depending on matchups.
and with respect to Millsap being able to play spot minutes at center the numbers also support that he'd be able to do a passable job in certain situations and for limited minutes.
http://www.82games.com/0809/08UTA10.HTM
Millsap's PER at power forward: 20.7
Opponent PER at power forward: 16.5
Millsap's PER at Center: 20.9
Opponent PER at Center: 11.5
Millsap's overall defensive rating: 97.7
Here there might be a problem of sample size as only 7% of Millsap's floor time was at the center position (comparable to LMA's 7% last season) but I think either would be able to give you a solid 15-18 minutes combined at the center position when Oden's on the bench, with 6'10" Pendergraph able to give you spot minutes depending on foul trouble and potential injuries.
Honestly, I care as much about hollinger's efficiency rating as I do about the BCS computer rankings. Anyone that watched Lamarcus try to guard Scola in the playoffs knows what I am talking about. LaMarcus just isn't a great defender/rebounder period. Anyone who thinks he is a top rebounder and defender is just wrong, PER or no PER. This is the reason they want to bring in someone like Millsap. Not that LaMarcus is a bad player, I think the PER demonstrates that he is good enough on offense to make up for his defensive troubles, and again, he is a young guy and will become a smarter defender over time.
I do think it's funny that anyone cites the PER of Lamarcus to explain why Joel should be traded and Marcus can move to center. Just watch what happens to LaMarcus's defensive stats if Joel is not there to help out.
The bottom lin is, you don't trade Joel unless you get another center. You trade Outlaw; he is the extranneous piece.
Honestly, I care as much about hollinger's efficiency rating as I do about the BCS computer rankings.
Aldridge - 20ppg/7.5rpg against Houston
Scola - 16ppg/6.7rpg against Portland
Huh? "Anybody that watched" saw LMA dominate Scola when he actually got the ball.
Scola went for 13/10 against Los Angeles. Perhaps Pau Gasol should be traded as well?
Aldridge didn't even really guard Scola for most of four games in that series to add as well. He was busy helping Joel and Greg shadow Yao. Scola got many of his points on wide open jumpers from the key.
I never worry about LMA's rebounding because that isn't his real role in our setup. He is the fastest guy end to end on our team pretty much and his job is to streak out. Our small forwards are supposed to help with the rebounding but uh.. that doesn't happen so much.
Honestly, I care as much about hollinger's efficiency rating as I do about the BCS computer rankings. Anyone that watched Lamarcus try to guard Scola in the playoffs knows what I am talking about. LaMarcus just isn't a great defender/rebounder period. Anyone who thinks he is a top rebounder and defender is just wrong, PER or no PER. This is the reason they want to bring in someone like Millsap. Not that LaMarcus is a bad player, I think the PER demonstrates that he is good enough on offense to make up for his defensive troubles, and again, he is a young guy and will become a smarter defender over time.
I do think it's funny that anyone cites the PER of Lamarcus to explain why Joel should be traded and Marcus can move to center. Just watch what happens to LaMarcus's defensive stats if Joel is not there to help out.
The bottom lin is, you don't trade Joel unless you get another center. You trade Outlaw; he is the extranneous piece.
The BCS composite score has nothing to do with real statistical analysis, it's just a way of kludging together a bunch of subjective opinion polls. John Hollinger on the other hand is a respected and legitimate statistician, and while PER isn't the be-all-end-all statistic, it does a very good job of guaging offensive efficiency and productivity, and a large PER differential is a pretty good metric that a player is outplaying his direct counterpart. Using Luis Scola in a single series as some kind of "proof" that LMA can't play defense against opposing fours not only violates the principle of using a statistically significant sample size, it also discounts the fact the Luis Scola is an experienced and very good power forward.
Joel is a nice player, but counting on him to carry you to a championship is an empty hope, even moreso when you possibly have a mere 96 minutes to divvy up 4 ways between LMA, Greg, Millsap and Joel (5 if you still count Outlaw) somebody's being paid to sit on their butt in that scenario and this team still has holes to fill at the one and the three with better defenders.
The bottom line: This team goes only as far as Greg Oden, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge carries it. Joel isn't a critical piece of the puzzle
Honestly, your opinion has zero evidence backing it. Other than your opinion, of course.
While I admit that I posited only anecdotal evidence, I have read many posts on this site that proffer much less. Basketball forums are more or less the appropriate place to express one's opinion, are they not? And besides, if statistics were the end all in basketball, then Zach Randolph would not have been traded by so many teams. By the way, he is #25 on the PER list, but I don't see anyone jumping in line to trade #32 Lamarcus for him. In fact, he was basically given away for almost nothing. Why is that?
I wonder what Dennis Rodman's PER would have been? Maybe we should take all those rings back from him.
That's probably because LMA actually plays defense, and that PER doesn't rate defense. The only PER comparisons I've seen between LMA and his opponents while oncourt, however, have LMA winning a landslide.

Hee hee. The per doesn't rate defense. Classic. I have been taken to task repeatedly in this thread because I did not bow the knee to the mighty PER analysis when I said that Lamarcus is not a great defender. Now I am told that Lamarcus is a much better defender than Stat-Bo, PER be damned. Oh also, I don't have enough evidence in MY posts.![]()
I think you're a little confused. PER doesn't measure defense, but PER-against is a measure of defense...that's the PER that the player gives up to his opponent. Nikolokolus used Aldridge's PER-against to show Aldridge did well defensively.
So...PER itself doesn't measure defense, or take into account critical elements of defense, but by measuring how well someone's offense is against your offense, I can tell how good your defense is?
Here is my problem. When LaMarcus is in, he is one of the two primary offensive options. How many of his counterparts at the four enjoy that same designation? Does not the fact that he is a primary offensive option increase his PER rating in relation to the people that he guards? What does this have to do with defense?
Let me put it another way...who will score higher on the PER chart, a guy who plays great offense and no defense, or a defensive specialist? I think we can see the answer to that, since Tracy McGrady has one of the all-time highest career PER ratings, and he is far from a defensive stopper. Here is Hollinger himself on the subject:
"Bear in mind that this rating is not the final, once-and-for-all answer for a player's accomplishments during the season. This is especially true for players -- such as Bruce Bowen and Jason Collins -- who are defensive specialists but don't get many blocks or steals. "
I have no idea what you're talking about. You don't play offense against your opponent's offense, you play defense. How well your opponent does on offense against you is a measure of your defense. How is that not clear?
That might be relevant if what was being used was (PER / PER-against) ratio. That isn't what is being used. His PER and PER-against are being quoted independently. One shows his offense, one shows his defense. His offense doesn't affect his PER-against at all.
You're still confused. That is about PER. PER does not measure defense in any meaningful way. But the PER a player gives up to his OPPONENT (PER-against) measures his defense, because it's measuring how productive his opponent is against his defense.
Basketball is not a game where five guys match up with five other guys like mating geese.
That is a great line. Although I didn't know that homosexuality was so rampant in geese.
I am picturing John Wooden on the court, telling his players that.
barfo

You are right, I am confused. I am confused because you are claiming something for the PER numbers that even the author of them does not claim for them, namely that they effectively gauge a player's defense. Basketball is not a game where five guys match up with five other guys like mating geese. You play off the ball, you contain prolific scorers, you switch onto other guys, you play other team's second units, and your defense is rated by how well you do these things, not necessarily by how well the guy who plays your same position scores or doesn't score.
I am not the only one who sees this weakness in the PER stats, it is a common criticism. I even just found it on WIKI:
"PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates -- blocks and steals -- can produce a distorted picture of a player's value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player's defensive acumen. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA (at least through the 2006-07 season), has routinely posted single-digit PERs.
Neither PER nor per-game statistics take into account such intangible elements as competitive drive, leadership, durability, conditioning, or hustle, largely because there is no real way to quantitatively measure these things, which are often based on opinion.
PlayerName Def StdErr Poss Min Teams
Garnett, Kevin -10.3 1.6 37,956 9,838 BOS, MIN
Hayes, Chuck -8.2 1.9 17,164 4,440 HOU
Mutombo, Dik -8.1 2.3 11,002 2,915 HOU
Ming, Yao -7.3 1.8 29,298 7,625 HOU
Horry, Robert -7.2 2.0 11,185 2,878 SAN, SAS
Hilario, Nene -6.7 1.8 16,423 4,092 DEN
Haywood, Bren -6.6 1.9 22,669 5,834 WAS
Camby, Marcus -6.5 1.6 35,827 8,671 DEN, LAC
Bogut, Andrew -6.5 1.7 32,841 8,449 MIL
Duncan, Tim -6.5 1.9 38,495 10,217 SAN, SAS
Thomas, Kurt -5.9 1.6 20,623 5,247 PHX, SEA, SAS
Ratliff, Theo -5.9 2.2 8,067 2,118 POR, BOS, MIN, DET, PHI
Collins, Jarron -5.7 2.0 13,354 3,474 UTH, UTA
Artest, Ron -5.7 1.4 35,051 8,865 IND, SAC, HOU
Mourning, Alon -5.4 2.2 12,797 3,258 MIA
Przybilla, Joel -5.2 1.8 19,849 5,444 POR
Rondo, Rajon -5.1 1.9 23,674 6,113 BOS
Martin, Kenyon -5.0 1.7 22,493 5,552 DEN
Kirilenko, And -5.0 1.6 32,249 8,277 UTH, UTA
Iguodala, Andre -4.8 1.7 46,148 11,873 PHL, PHI
Balkman, Rena -4.7 2.0 10,109 2,588 NYK, DEN
Collins, Jason -4.7 1.8 20,043 5,215 NJN, MEM, MIN
[COLOR="DarkRed"]Aldridge, LaM -4.6 1.9 23,941 6,477 POR[/COLOR]
Wallace, Ben -4.6 1.4 34,760 9,050 CLE, DET, CHI
Varejao, And -4.6 1.8 22,572 5,859 CLE
Songaila, Dari -4.5 1.6 18,834 4,839 CHI, WAS
Wallace, Rash -4.5 1.9 34,745 9,393 DET
Pavlovic, Sasha -4.4 1.7 17,008 4,377 CLE
Westbrook, Rus -4.3 2.5 8,597 2,174 OKC
Battier, Shane -4.3 1.5 39,198 10,233 MEM, HOU
Hee hee. The per doesn't rate defense. Classic. I have been taken to task repeatedly in this thread because I did not bow the knee to the mighty PER analysis when I said that Lamarcus is not a great defender. Now I am told that Lamarcus is a much better defender than Stat-Bo, PER be damned. Oh also, I don't have enough evidence in MY posts.
I like this site for the news you guys can find so quickly, but honestly, I think my pretend GM skills are as good as anyone on here. And speaking of pretend GM skills, this is the awesomest quote in this whole thread:
"The shine is off of Pritchard. This summer is looking like a disaster at this point. I can't disagree with anything written about him in that piece."
I think that's all I need to know about you, with all due respect.
Cheers
