Projecting the playoffs

[Cake]

I was looking at team WinScore stats and how they relate to actual wins, since some people tend to reject any statistic as garbage. It's amazing how well it correlates overall...

We have 23 wins. Our WS total for our players is 22.5. Our Pythagorean predictor is 23 wins. (Basically calculated through point differential) Very close. So I did it for every team.

Then I took it a step further, to figure out what WS and Pythagorean predictions for who will make the playoffs.

According to Pythagorean predictions, here's the playoff race.

LAL 63.8 wins
UTA 53.2 wins
SAS 52.4 wins
DEN 51.8 wins
POR 51 wins
NOLA 50.6 wins
HOU 50.5 wins
DAL 46.5 wins

OUT
PHO 45.8 wins

What about a straight up WS pediction?

LAL 66.5
UTA 53.6
DEN 51.1
NOLA 51.1
SAS 50.1
POR 49.9
HOU 49.4
PHO 47.3

OUT
DAL 46.8

And then a combination of what teams have ACTUALLY done up to this point, combined with WS and PYTH predictions. So that the calculation isn't JUST dealing with the team's potential, but with results as well.

LAL 66.5
SAS 52.7
DEN 52.6
UTAH 52.3
NOLA 51.8
POR 50.7
HOU 50.2
PHO 48.2

OUT
DAL 47.6

Doesn't look too good for Dallas at this point. Phoenix either, really. Of course, this doesn't take into account injuries or the strength of schedule for teams. We've played a pretty tough schedule, so maybe we get bumped up a half win or so? Houston and Denver have star players out for extended periods of time, so maybe they get bumped down a bit.

 

[alex42083]

Sounds good to me. Though according to those win total differentials.. making the playoffs could go down to the final 2-3 games of the season, and it probably will. This will probably be a pretty wild ride down the stretch.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I think the playoffs will come down to health. If a certain player on a team goes down for a month plus they will miss the playoffs.

If Portland loses Roy for a big stretch Portland won't make the playoffs

If Dallas loses Dirk for a big stretch Dallas won't make the playoffs

If Utah loses Williams for a big stretch Utah won't make the playoffs

If Phoenix loses Shaq for a big stretch Phoenix won't make the playoffs

If Houston loses Yao for a big stretch Houston won't make the playoffs

If New Orleans loses Paul for a big stretch New Orleans won't make the playoffs

Id San Antonio loses Duncan for a big stretch San Antonio won't make the playoffs

If Denver loses Billups for a big stretch Denver won't make the playoffs.

IMO only the L*kers....barely can squeeze in if they lose K*be