Saw on twitter a few days ago - in response to Scott Foster apologizing for butchering LA's goaltending on February 6th against the Thunder - that that game was where things started unraveling, and I couldn't agree more. Now that we're definitely lottery bound, I decided to do a little "research" at how the lottery rankings will look at the end of the season...
So where do we end up?
Since that game, we're 7 - 14 (.333) and a lot of those losses have been drubbings. Since that game, we shipped off 2 starting veterans for little to no positive, on-court return, fired our coach, and had perhaps our most promising young player sustain a bad injury. Given all that's occurred and what's left: non-coach, tryout players, etc. I think it's fair to project that we finish our final 21 games slightly worse than the .333 pace since Fostergate - say 6-15 (.285) in our final 21 games, putting us at 27-39. I know we have a homestand coming, so this is likely to be give or take a few games.
So what does that mean for the lottery?
Charlotte (7-36), Washington (10-34) and New Orleans (11-34) seem to have the top 3 spots all but wrapped up.
After that, NJ (15-31), Toronto (15-30), Detroit (16-29), Sacramento (16-29), Cleveland (16-26), and Golden State (18-24) are all right in our range.
Since February 6th, here is how those teams have faired:
NJ: 7-15 (.318); worth noting their pickup of Gerald Wallace for free. Should give them at least a minor uptick in Ws.
TOR: 7-13 (.350)
DET: 10-9 (.526)
SAC: 8-14 (.363)
CLE: 7-13 (.350); worth mentioning they gave up Sessions for nothing, should give them a slight downtick.
GS: 10-11 (.476)
If each team continues at this pace for the rest of their season, this is what their projected records would be:
NJ: 21 or 22 Ws (45 or 44 Ls)
TOR: 22 or 23 WS (44 or 43 Ls)
SAC: 23 or 24 Ws (43 or 42 Ls)
CLE: 24 or 25 Ws (42 or 41 Ls)
DET: 27 - 39
PROJECTED PORTLAND SLOT: 27-39
GS: 29 or 30 Ws (37 or 36 Ls)
Should be interesting to see how things play out. Obviously this doesn't take into account future injuries, home/away games, strength of schedule, playoff teams resting their starters, future staff or roster movements, etc. but clearly Detroit is trending in one direction, we're trending in the other. It would appear Cleveland, w/ trading away Sessions will finish below us, and if this all holds true, NJ WILL be in that 4th spot. Certainly makes for a little nervousness, but hopefully GWall will be enough to bump them above some of Toronto, Sacramento or Cleveland.
If this holds - we'd have the 9th lottery slot, but clearly we'd have to tank pretty drastically to improve much on that... Here's to hopin some of these teams get hot!
So where do we end up?
Since that game, we're 7 - 14 (.333) and a lot of those losses have been drubbings. Since that game, we shipped off 2 starting veterans for little to no positive, on-court return, fired our coach, and had perhaps our most promising young player sustain a bad injury. Given all that's occurred and what's left: non-coach, tryout players, etc. I think it's fair to project that we finish our final 21 games slightly worse than the .333 pace since Fostergate - say 6-15 (.285) in our final 21 games, putting us at 27-39. I know we have a homestand coming, so this is likely to be give or take a few games.
So what does that mean for the lottery?
Charlotte (7-36), Washington (10-34) and New Orleans (11-34) seem to have the top 3 spots all but wrapped up.
After that, NJ (15-31), Toronto (15-30), Detroit (16-29), Sacramento (16-29), Cleveland (16-26), and Golden State (18-24) are all right in our range.
Since February 6th, here is how those teams have faired:
NJ: 7-15 (.318); worth noting their pickup of Gerald Wallace for free. Should give them at least a minor uptick in Ws.
TOR: 7-13 (.350)
DET: 10-9 (.526)
SAC: 8-14 (.363)
CLE: 7-13 (.350); worth mentioning they gave up Sessions for nothing, should give them a slight downtick.
GS: 10-11 (.476)
If each team continues at this pace for the rest of their season, this is what their projected records would be:
NJ: 21 or 22 Ws (45 or 44 Ls)
TOR: 22 or 23 WS (44 or 43 Ls)
SAC: 23 or 24 Ws (43 or 42 Ls)
CLE: 24 or 25 Ws (42 or 41 Ls)
DET: 27 - 39
PROJECTED PORTLAND SLOT: 27-39
GS: 29 or 30 Ws (37 or 36 Ls)
Should be interesting to see how things play out. Obviously this doesn't take into account future injuries, home/away games, strength of schedule, playoff teams resting their starters, future staff or roster movements, etc. but clearly Detroit is trending in one direction, we're trending in the other. It would appear Cleveland, w/ trading away Sessions will finish below us, and if this all holds true, NJ WILL be in that 4th spot. Certainly makes for a little nervousness, but hopefully GWall will be enough to bump them above some of Toronto, Sacramento or Cleveland.
If this holds - we'd have the 9th lottery slot, but clearly we'd have to tank pretty drastically to improve much on that... Here's to hopin some of these teams get hot!
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