Qualifying offers sent to Meyers, Crabbe, and Moe.

[illmatic99]

Nylon Calculus ranks AC as best of the rest as per their model. Those numbers... jeez

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/29/a-model-for-nba-free-agent-earnings/

 

[illmatic99]

I can do 12 mil for Meyers. 12 for Hark is stretching it. But 17 for AC is... nuts.

That's equivalent to a ~13 mil contract in the current cap. He's an above average bench player. I wouldn't stretch further than 15.

 

[TBpup]

Nylon Calculus ranks AC as best of the rest as per their model. Those numbers... jeez

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/29/a-model-for-nba-free-agent-earnings/

Crabbe will NOT get more than Whiteside nor will he get almost 50% more than Howard.

 

[illmatic99]

Crabbe will NOT get more than Whiteside nor will he get almost 50% more than Howard.

Keep in mind this model is strictly based on stats and analytics. There's obviously going to be some outliers there that don't make sense.

And they have a few mistakes on who's a FA and who's a RFA.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Depends on how much money I was being offered by each team, how old I was, and how realistic it was for me to ever get a big contract again.

Along with how many minutes you are getting off the bench. In Crabbe's case he often finished games even though he did not start.
So starting vs coming off the bench really does not matter in regards to perceived value. He played starters minutes in the GS series.

If the dollars are similar then you go with the team you feel most comfortable with. Look at Monroe last year he thought he was going with the better team.....but things can change in a hurry. Also look at a player like Wes who signed with Portland to come off the bench, but ended up starting.

So if I am Crabbe and the money is similar, I go with the organization I feels most confident with. He will get his chance to prove himself over the next 4 years. If he can't then he doesn't deserve the next big contract.

 

[crandc]

If you played in the NBA, would you choose a starting position on a shitty lottery team, or to come off the bench knowing your team has a chance to win

It really varies; different players have different priorities. You can argue either way.

 

[Natebishop3]

I just can't support letting an asset walk away for nothing. Sign them and trade them later if you think they're getting paid too much.

 

[Mediocre Man]

If you played in the NBA, would you choose a starting position on a shitty lottery team, or to come off the bench knowing your team has a chance to win

How old am I in this scenario?

 

[JfizzleBlazer]

I just can't support letting an asset walk away for nothing. Sign them and trade them later if you think they're getting paid too much.

A great example is robin lopez. Dude was traded as the main piece for derrick rose. While rose is a shell of his former self, it shows he had some trade value.

Everyone (myself included) scoffed last year at him get 13 millionish/year. But now people are saying that is a value contract in todays world for a decent center.

 

[e_blazer]

How old am I in this scenario?

Yeah, no kidding. At my age, I take the vet's minimum, sit in a nice courtside chair and watch the games for free.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Yeah, no kidding. At my age, I take the vet's minimum, sit in a nice courtside chair and watch the games for free.

Hell I'd wash balls for the vet minimum. Which balls? There choice for that money

 

[Natebishop3]

A great example is robin lopez. Dude was traded as the main piece for derrick rose. While rose is a shell of his former self, it shows he had some trade value.

Everyone (myself included) scoffed last year at him get 13 millionish/year. But now people are saying that is a value contract in todays world for a decent center.

Exactly. Maybe we don't want to pay crabbe that money but I'm willing to bet we can trade him after the waiting period ends.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I just can't support letting an asset walk away for nothing. Sign them and trade them later if you think they're getting paid too much.

I agree completely.

 

[illmatic99]

So assuming the cap goes to 107 next year, a 15 mil (14%) deal for AC will be equivalent to a 13 mil deal in the 2016 cap (94 mil), or a 9.8 mil deal in the 2015 cap (70 mil).

It definitely would be more tradeable.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Just a note--if we sign Whiteside for the max, that plus our guaranteed contracts total basically 75M. That puts us 37M below the luxury tax level this year. If we retain all three of our RFA's for an average of 12.5M each (or more), we're into the luxury tax, which is important because we'll almost definitely be in luxury tax next year, which will trigger the significantly higher repeater rates if we're already over this year. Probably don't want that, so likely that we'll only keep two of our RFA's. Between the three, seems to me that the C would be more expendable than the SG and SF if we sign a center.

Long story short, pretty unlikely that we keep Meyers if we sign Whiteside or Howard.

 

[Mediocre Man]

Just a note--if we sign Whiteside for the max, that plus our guaranteed contracts total basically 75M. That puts us 37M below the luxury tax level this year. If we retain all three of our RFA's for an average of 12.5M each (or more), we're into the luxury tax, which is important because we'll almost definitely be in luxury tax next year, which will trigger the significantly higher repeater rates if we're already over this year. Probably don't want that, so likely that we'll only keep two of our RFA's. Between the three, seems to me that the C would be more expendable than the SG and SF if we sign a center.

Long story short, pretty unlikely that we keep Meyers if we sign Whiteside or Howard.

Then let's sign one of those guys at 12:01 am

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Then let's sign one of those guys at 12:01 am

Great idea. I'll pass that along to Neil sometime today or tomorrow.

 

[e_blazer]

Just a note--if we sign Whiteside for the max, that plus our guaranteed contracts total basically 75M. That puts us 37M below the luxury tax level this year. If we retain all three of our RFA's for an average of 12.5M each (or more), we're into the luxury tax, which is important because we'll almost definitely be in luxury tax next year, which will trigger the significantly higher repeater rates if we're already over this year. Probably don't want that, so likely that we'll only keep two of our RFA's. Between the three, seems to me that the C would be more expendable than the SG and SF if we sign a center.

Long story short, pretty unlikely that we keep Meyers if we sign Whiteside or Howard.

Unless Olshey and Stotts value his size and outside shooting more than Plumlee's athleticism and close-range bricking, in which case Plums could get traded for a future pick.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

Steph Curry is going to make $12 mill this year.

 

[e_blazer]

Steph Curry is going to make $12 mill this year.

That's why I have a hard time believing that the Warriors are serious about signing Durant at $30M or so per year. Curry's going to get max money after next year, Thompson and Green are around $17M each. That's the salary cap right there in those 4 players. Unless they're going to dump the rest of the squad and just sign minimum players, they'd be in luxury tax hell for years.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Crabbe will NOT get more than Whiteside nor will he get almost 50% more than Howard.

And, here's his Top 10:

Not only won't Crabbe get more than Whiteside, neither will Fournier, Clarkson, Barnes or Williams.

Reality will differ greatly from his model. It seems to disproportionately favor young guys on crappy teams. I mean, come on, Evan Fournier is decent and kind of youngish, but he's not that good (PER = 14.6) and he's not that young (will be 24 by opening night). Same for Clarkson (PER = 14.3. already 24). These are two guys who averaged 15 ppg on two crappy teams. No way in hell does that make them 2 of the 7 most valuable free agents among this class of 119.

I hope he revises his model for next year to take into account reality.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Unless Olshey and Stotts value his size and outside shooting more than Plumlee's athleticism and close-range bricking, in which case Plums could get traded for a future pick.

Yes, that's true, but I already had an entire thread about Plums leaving if Meyers stays. I guess the most accurate statement is that between Meyers, Plums, and a 20M+ free agent center, we're only going to have two of those three.

 

[e_blazer]

Yes, that's true, but I already had an entire thread about Plums leaving if Meyers stays. I guess the most accurate statement is that between Meyers, Plums, and a 20M+ free agent center, we're only going to have two of those three.

Yup. No argument from me.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

If we get HW, I would totally trade Plums for a Pat Bev and a 1st rounder.

The rockets are definitely looking to upgrade the PG spot.

 

[Boob-No-More]

Nylon Calculus ranks AC as best of the rest as per their model. Those numbers... jeez

http://nyloncalculus.com/2016/06/29/a-model-for-nba-free-agent-earnings/

These projections have little to do with reality, in most cases, but I'd be totally fine with matching Harkless and Leonard in the ~$12 million range give the current state of cap inflation. Crabbe (or any of the three) in the $16 million, or above, range would give me pause and I'd probably pass on matching.

It will be interesting to see what the actual offers end up being, who gets them from watch teams and f the Blazers do, or don't match.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

These projections have little to do with reality, in most cases, but I'd be totally fine with matching Harkless and Leonard in the ~$12 million range give the current state of cap inflation. Crabbe (or any of the three) in the $16 million, or above, range would give me pause and I'd probably pass on matching.

It will be interesting to see what the actual offers end up being, who gets them from watch teams and f the Blazers do, or don't match.

BNM

I'll ask you the same question I was discussing in the other thread: If we let Crabbe go because someone's offering him $17M, who spells Dame & CJ? Are we ready to throw Connaughton or Montero into the fire? Do we trade Plumlee for a backup guard or two? Or do we go with the best guard willing to take our room exception?

 

[Pinwheel1]

I'll ask you the same question I was discussing in the other thread: If we let Crabbe go because someone's offering him $17M, who spells Dame & CJ? Are we ready to throw Connaughton or Montero into the fire? Do we trade Plumlee for a backup guard or two? Or do we go with the best guard willing to take our room exception?

Maybe summer league will help answer that question. My first thought is no they are not ready, but young players do improve quite a bit between season one and two.

Montero's stroke looked pretty good in the D league. Connaughton looked much improved in mop up duty. Neither scenario gives us much to go on. Summer league is not ideal either but it should give us an idea

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Maybe summer league will help answer that question. My first thought is no they are not ready, but young players do improve quite a bit between season one and two.

Montero's stroke looked pretty good in the D league. Connaughton looked much improved in mop up duty. Neither scenario gives us much to go on. Summer league is not ideal either but it should give us an idea

Unfortunately, Neil will have to make a decision on Crabbe well before summer league.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Unfortunately, Neil will have to make a decision on Crabbe well before summer league.

Yeah but it probably won't be a factor in whether or not to match, only a factor in his next move. (i.e trading for a back up vs promoting from our bench)

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Yeah but it probably won't be a factor in whether or not to match, only a factor in his next move. (i.e trading for a back up vs promoting from our bench)

Ah, I see.