Quick: GO signing QO

[SlyPokerDog]

jwquick Jason Quick

Oden says he's "still a ways" from full-contact drills. "We want me to progress. We don't want to push me out there too soon."

 

[oldmangrouch]

Friday: signs QO.
Monday: announces he is out for the season.
Tuesday: S2 begins campaign to give him a max contract, guaranteed induction into the HOF, and sainthood in the church of his choice.

People never learn.......

 

[Nikolokolus]

And, since Portland holds his Bird rights, we will have signifcant advantages over all the other teams bidding for his services.

BNM

If they were thinking of offering him a max deal then yes, Portland would have a significant advantage over other teams. The trouble is, he really hasn't done enough to make himself a max player, and even with one (mostly) healthy and productive season does he cross that threshold?

 

[Boob-No-More]

If they were thinking of offering him a max deal then yes, Portland would have a significant advantage over other teams. The trouble is, he really hasn't done enough to make himself a max player, and even with one (mostly) healthy and productive season does he cross that threshold?

The only teams that will be able to come within $26.6 million of the max Portland can offer will be teams at least $14.5 under the cap. How many of those will there be? How many capable and willing to offer Greg the max they can? Any he'd want to play for? For most teams, the max they will be able to offer is the full MLE, which falls about $65 million less than what Portland can offer. There's a whole lot of negotiating room between the other offers Greg will receive and the max Portland can offer. I suspect one healthy, productive season will result in an offer somewhere between those two extremes. How much exactly will depend on exactly how healthy and productive he is.

Of course if Greg REALLY wants out, after one healthy, productive season, he can try to force a sign and trade. But at least we'd get something back in that scenario.

BNM

 

[The_Lillard_King]

The only teams that will be able to come within $26.6 million of the max Portland can offer will be teams at least $14.5 under the cap. How many of those will there be? How many capable and willing to offer Greg the max they can? Any he'd want to play for? For most teams, the max they will be able to offer is the full MLE, which falls about $65 million less than what Portland can offer. There's a whole lot of negotiating room between the other offers Greg will receive and the max Portland can offer. I suspect one healthy, productive season will result in an offer somewhere between those two extremes. How much exactly will depend on exactly how healthy and productive he is.

Of course if Greg REALLY wants out, after one healthy, productive season, he can try to force a sign and trade. But at least we'd get something back in that scenario.

BNM

That makes a lot of sense. My fear is there are a handful of teams gearing up for this summer free agency. The teams gearing up (clearing cap space) that miss out on the big names might end up throwing tons of money on a hope like GO. Blazers can offer more, but I'm guessing if Oden can put together a half way decent season, he will be overpaid this summer. By who is the question . . .

 

[blue32]

Didn't Oden tweet that he was running a couple of weeks ago?

 

[Boob-No-More]

That makes a lot of sense. My fear is there are a handful of teams gearing up for this summer free agency. The teams gearing up (clearing cap space) that miss out on the big names might end up throwing tons of money on a hope like GO. Blazers can offer more, but I'm guessing if Oden can put together a half way decent season, he will be overpaid this summer. By who is the question . . .

And then, it will be Portland's choice. They can overpay him more than anyone else can overpay him. If they REALLY want to keep him, they can make it worth his while to stay in Portland. I just don't get this whole "Portlanmd has no leverage" mantra. To me, it sure seems like they have more leverage than any other team in the league.

BNM

 

[The_Lillard_King]

And then, it will be Portland's choice. They can overpay him more than anyone else can overpay him. If they REALLY want to keep him, they can make it worth his while to stay in Portland. I just don't get this whole "Portlanmd has no leverage" mantra. To me, it sure seems like they have more leverage than any other team in the league.

BNM

I agree with you on this. Also that leverage is significant leverage considering this may be Oden's one big multi year contract in his career, so chasing a ring is not as important as securing financial stability for him and his family at that time. I hope it does come down to strictly a money analysis for Oden.

I just think it won't be an easy decision to resign Oden as the Blazers will have to decide if they are willing to reach deep deep deep into PA's pockets to keep him because other teams will be making serious offers out there.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I agree with you on this. Also that leverage is significant leverage considering this may be Oden's one big multi year contract in his career, so chasing a ring is not as important as securing financial stability for him and his family at that time. I hope it does come down to strictly a money analysis for Oden.

The extra year Portland can offer will be huge for someone with Oden's injury history.

I just think it won't be an easy decision to resign Oden as the Blazers will have to decide if they are willing to reach deep deep deep into PA's pockets to keep him because other teams will be making serious offers out there.

It will really depend on how Oden plays this season. Thankfully, if he is healthy (oh please, oh please, oh please) and productive, Paul Allen has pockets deep enough to pay him more than anyone else can offer.

BNM

 

[retroblazers]

I think the only way Oden stays is if Portland can make a deep playoff run this year to give him hope that he can win with what we have in Portland.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I think the only way Oden stays is if Portland can make a deep playoff run this year to give him hope that he can win with what we have in Portland.

Yeah, he could always accept significantly less money and go to non-contender like Sacramento or Minnesota, or accept a LOT less (up to $65 million less) and sign for the full MLE with a team like the Heat.

Seriously, will there be any real contenders that are $14.5 million (or anywhere close) under the cap next summer? If they are, will they blow their entire salary cap load on Oden, even if he is healthy and productive this season?

BNM

 

[BBert]

Yikes, "The" Boob is in midseason form. You been working out?

 

[Nikolokolus]

The Blazers have tons of roster decisions to make between now and July. Felton UFA, Oden UFA, Batum extension, Camby UFA (retires?), Roy Amesty? Signing Greg to the max (or near that) could have some real impact across the roster and force some hard decisions.

 

[tlongII]

I recommend going through and reading the various Analyses of the Oden situation written over the last two years on Blazersedge. This was the worst case scenario for keeping Greg.

That doesn't make the post any less dumb.

 

[magnifier661]

Yikes, "The" Boob is in midseason form. You been working out?

He is doing great! I was absolutely suprised. Maybe BNM is GO?

 

[BlazerBeav]

Wow, some of you must have seasonal depression - can't see how this development is anything but good news! Hope springs eternal in Rip City!

 

[Boob-No-More]

The Blazers have tons of roster decisions to make between now and July. Felton UFA, Oden UFA, Batum extension, Camby UFA (retires?), Roy Amesty? Signing Greg to the max (or near that) could have some real impact across the roster and force some hard decisions.

Camby will be gone, either traded at the deadline, or they'll let him walk. The only way he stays in Portland is if they offer him one year at the vet minimum and he accepts it.

It all really hinges on Roy. If they use the amnesty clause on him, it will free up a lot of bucks to spend on Oden and Felton, should they wish.

Oden is playing for his next contract this season. Roy is playing for pride. Financially, he'd actually come out ahead if he was mediocre (or slightly worse) this season, Portland uses the amnesty clause on him and some other team picks him up on a small contract.

BNM

 

[Boob-No-More]

Yikes, "The" Boob is in midseason form. You been working out?

Yes, I was banned from speaking to the media during the lockout, but I was hosting private workouts with other posters and partcicpated in a few charity threads to help keep in shape.

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

Camby will be gone, either traded at the deadline, or they'll let him walk. The only way he stays in Portland is if they offer him one year at the vet minimum and he accepts it.

It all really hinges on Roy. If they use the amnesty clause on him, it will free up a lot of bucks to spend on Oden and Felton, should they wish.

Oden is playing for his next contract this season. Roy is playing for pride. Financially, he'd actually come out ahead if he was mediocre (or slightly worse) this season, Portland uses the amnesty clause on him and some other team picks him up on a small contract.

BNM

There's no financial advantage. a waiver-wire contract becomes an offset paid to Portland. Roy doesn't get to double-dip (unless he cleared waivers).

 

[illmatic99]

Quick:

More coming from Oden's Vail visit soon. He is in good spirits and his doctor's appt was viewed as a success. Will post when done writing

nice.

 

[Boob-No-More]

There's no financial advantage. a waiver-wire contract becomes an offset paid to Portland. Roy doesn't get to double-dip (unless he cleared waivers).

Assuming he's a shell of his former self (if not, by some miracle, Portland wouldn't use the amnesty clause on him), why woulnd't he clear waivers? Just asking.

BNM

 

[PtldPlatypus]

Assuming he's a shell of his former self (if not, by some miracle, Portland wouldn't use the amnesty clause on him), why woulnd't he clear waivers? Just asking.

BNM

If some other team wanted him, why would they allow him to clear waivers and be available to any team, when they could improve their chances of obtaining his services by putting in a claim?

 

[mgb]

My only concern, and I like BNB's view, it makes me feel better, but my only fear is Oden isn't big on wanting money so he'll probably be sitting financially ok after this year and he might feel he has a better chance of getting a title by going to Miami next year. Then we could lose him for nothing in return.

 

[Boob-No-More]

He is doing great! I was absolutely suprised. Maybe BNM is GO?

Well, we did both play our high school ball in Indiana, but I'm older than Greg Oden looks.

BNM

 

[Natebishop3]

I think some of you are way too optimistic about this. Consider this -

1. This is a guy who has played in 82 games in four seasons and he just signed A ONE YEAR EXTENSION. That's a HUGE risk. He could injure his knee again and get nothing.

2. Portland has NOT been a positive experience for Oden.

A. The injuries have taken a toll on his psyche.
B. The pressure that was put on him for being the "savior" has taken a toll on him.
C. The negative media and fanspeak about him being a bust has taken a toll on him.

3. His personality has changed in the last four years. He's no longer the happy-go-lucky guy that made the country fall in love with him. He's very introverted and quiet. Very reserved.

4. If I was Greg I would want a clean start on a new team in a new city that:

A. Doesn't only have one team.
B. Doesn't have a tabloid rag like the Oregonian chasing after him.
C. Doesn't have all the demons that are listed above.

5. He can go to any team next season, leave some money on the table but play with other stars that would take pressure off him and he can just be Greg without having to worry about being the "savior".

I'm just really not seeing how this is a positive. Sure, we can sign him to more money than anyone else next summer, but what if he has a so-so season and still is commanding max money from other teams? Do we want to max him out just to keep him from leaving? My gut tells me Greg wants out. This city has not been a positive experience for him at all. The injuries, the hype, the "bust" label. Why would he want to stay here?

 

[blazerboy30]

Really??? He'd have to really want out of Portland to give up potentially $26 million and and extra year of guaranteed money - if healthy and productive. If he's not healthy and productive, do we really care if he leaves? If Portland really wants to keep him, they will have huge financial advanages over every other team in the league.

BNM

Can Portland only match another team's offer if they are willing to pay Oden a Max contract?

Or can Portland simply offer anything they want (obviously still under the max) to outbid another team?

IE: Are Portland's only choices the MLE or max? Or can they offer anything in between?

 

[BlazerBeav]

I think some of you are way too optimistic about this. Consider this -



2. Portland has NOT been a positive experience for Oden.

A. The injuries have taken a toll on his psyche.
B. The pressure that was put on him for being the "savior" has taken a toll on him.
C. The negative media and fanspeak about him being a bust has taken a toll on him.

The injuries aren't related to Portland. The pressure on him here is less than it would be in big media market. Can you imagine what the NY press would have done with him? The fanbase here is very understanding, unlike in the big cities. Just because some posters on message boards and blogs are negative about him in no way means the fanbase is anything but behind him.

 

[magnifier661]

Can Portland only match another team's offer if they are willing to pay Oden a Max contract?

Or can Portland simply offer anything they want (obviously still under the max) to outbid another team?

IE: Are Portland's only choices the MLE or max? Or can they offer anything in between?

After this season, they can offer anything they want up to max.

 

[blazerboy30]

My only concern, and I like BNB's view, it makes me feel better, but my only fear is Oden isn't big on wanting money so he'll probably be sitting financially ok after this year and he might feel he has a better chance of getting a title by going to Miami next year. Then we could lose him for nothing in return.

If he really didn't want to be here, and is willing to give up big money to move, then we never had a chance of keeping him, regardless of what we did. He wouldn't have signed an extension. So this seems like a moot point.

 

[mgb]

I'm just really not seeing how this is a positive. Sure, we can sign him to more money than anyone else next summer, but what if he has a so-so season and still is commanding max money from other teams? Do we want to max him out just to keep him from leaving? My gut tells me Greg wants out. This city has not been a positive experience for him at all. The injuries, the hype, the "bust" label. Why would he want to stay here?

My gut is telling me he's staying and my gut is much, much bigger than your gut!