Quick: GO signing QO

[magnifier661]

I think some of you are way too optimistic about this. Consider this -

1. This is a guy who has played in 82 games in four seasons and he just signed A ONE YEAR EXTENSION. That's a HUGE risk. He could injure his knee again and get nothing.

2. Portland has NOT been a positive experience for Oden.

A. The injuries have taken a toll on his psyche.
B. The pressure that was put on him for being the "savior" has taken a toll on him.
C. The negative media and fanspeak about him being a bust has taken a toll on him.

3. His personality has changed in the last four years. He's no longer the happy-go-lucky guy that made the country fall in love with him. He's very introverted and quiet. Very reserved.

4. If I was Greg I would want a clean start on a new team in a new city that:

A. Doesn't only have one team.
B. Doesn't have a tabloid rag like the Oregonian chasing after him.
C. Doesn't have all the demons that are listed above.

5. He can go to any team next season, leave some money on the table but play with other stars that would take pressure off him and he can just be Greg without having to worry about being the "savior".

I'm just really not seeing how this is a positive. Sure, we can sign him to more money than anyone else next summer, but what if he has a so-so season and still is commanding max money from other teams? Do we want to max him out just to keep him from leaving? My gut tells me Greg wants out. This city has not been a positive experience for him at all. The injuries, the hype, the "bust" label. Why would he want to stay here?

If he is playing with stars liek you mentioned, then they will only be able to offer him max MLE at most. That's a lot of money to toss away.

 

[gatorpops]

Well, not everyone is so negative. Not everyone is so old and grouchy, some of us just old.

 

[Natebishop3]

The injuries aren't related to Portland. The pressure on him here is less than it would be in big media market. Can you imagine what the NY press would have done with him? The fanbase here is very understanding, unlike in the big cities. Just because some posters on message boards and blogs are negative about him in no way means the fanbase is anything but behind him.

That is absurd.

[video=youtube;4TdfpwvAiPk]

Please, point me in the direction of another city, another draft pick in any sport, and this kind of response.

If he were to go to Miami at this point, or Dallas, or the Lakers, they wouldn't be expecting the #1 overall pick dominant big man from Ohio State. They would be taking a gamble on a guy that could still live up to those expectations, but might also end up a total bust. People in Portland are still holding onto the dream that Oden will come back and be one of the best centers of all time and it just doesn't seem like that is going to happen.

 

[BrianFromWA]

How many contracts did Kwame Brown get after actually proving that he couldn't play the game? What about Olowokandi? Bargnani? Eddy Curry?

Yet, what was the media situation around them like?

 

[magnifier661]

That is absurd.

[video=youtube;4TdfpwvAiPk]

Please, point me in the direction of another city, another draft pick in any sport, and this kind of response.

If he were to go to Miami at this point, or Dallas, or the Lakers, they wouldn't be expecting the #1 overall pick dominant big man from Ohio State. They would be taking a gamble on a guy that could still live up to those expectations, but might also end up a total bust. People in Portland are still holding onto the dream that Oden will come back and be one of the best centers of all time and it just doesn't seem like that is going to happen.

Lakers when they got Shaq. I was actually there when he arrived. It was more fanatical than that. And LA is a much bigger market than Portland.

 

[Natebishop3]

How many contracts did Kwame Brown get after actually proving that he couldn't play the game? What about Olowokandi? Bargnani? Eddy Curry?

Yet, what was the media situation around them like?

I'm not sure if you're on my side or not in this post Brian.

 

[Natebishop3]

Lakers when they got Shaq. I was actually there when he arrived. It was more fanatical than that. And LA is a much bigger market than Portland.

Shaq had already been in the league, been to the Finals, proven he was a star. Hell, he'd already made at least three movies at that point. That's hardly the same thing. I said draft picks. Show me another draft pick that had that kind of welcome. We are talking about putting pressure on a rookie who isn't even 20 years old yet when he arrives in a city that expects him to be a future HOFer.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Assuming he's a shell of his former self (if not, by some miracle, Portland wouldn't use the amnesty clause on him), why woulnd't he clear waivers? Just asking.

BNM

If some other team wanted him, why would they allow him to clear waivers and be available to any team, when they could improve their chances of obtaining his services by putting in a claim?

Exactly this ^^. Roy's not worth 15-17 million a year at this point, but I'm sure there's a handful of teams who'd be willing to risk a mini-midlevel (~2 million a year) contract on him. All it takes is one team willing to put in a claim.

 

[magnifier661]

Shaq had already been in the league, been to the Finals, proven he was a star. Hell, he'd already made at least three movies at that point. That's hardly the same thing. I said draft picks. Show me another draft pick that had that kind of welcome.

Oh easy... David Robinson... Or Shaq in Orlando. They had a parade and everything. Carter in Toronto. Psst... I didn't know if you knew this but Clippers had a parade for Kandiman too. OMG, I totally remember when clips and their fans were ecstatic about Danny Ferry too! LMAO! Sorry I disagree man. Fanatatics are everywhere. Just because Portland has them, doesn't mean other towns don't.

 

[Natebishop3]

Oh easy... David Robinson... Or Shaq in Orlando. They had a parade and everything. Carter in Toronto. Psst... I didn't know if you knew this but Clippers had a parade for Kandiman too. OMG, I totally remember when clips and their fans were ecstatic about Danny Ferry too! LMAO! Sorry I disagree man. Fanatatics are everywhere. Just because Portland has them, doesn't mean other towns don't.

Carter is a bad example. Nobody except a few people thought Carter would be the super duper uper star that Vince turned out to be. The guy was just a high flying dunker from NC. Jamison was projected to be the better NBA player.

The Clips had a parade for Kandi? Did anyone show up?

 

[magnifier661]

Carter is a bad example. Nobody except a few people thought Carter would be the super duper uper star that Vince turned out to be. The guy was just a high flying dunker from NC. Jamison was projected to be the better NBA player.

The Clips had a parade for Kandi? Did anyone show up?

I don't know. I didn't go to that one.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't know. I didn't go to that one.

 

[BrianFromWA]

My post were legit questions.

For the last bunch of big men who went #1, what were their situations like? Kwame was exposed early as not being a good player, yet kept getting contracts for the next decade. He was getting trashed in the WAS sports scene.

Kandiman was shown early to be not a good player, but kept getting contracts for 8 years. He was trashed in LA (even while playing for the JV Clips).

Some of our Canadian friends know better than I, but I seem to recall that even Bargnani's contract was laughed at in the TOR area.

Eddy Curry was dumped on in NYC for being injured, out of shape, etc.

All I'm saying is that big men get trashed in the media in lots of places, and I'd say far worse than they do here--especially if they're high-hope disappointments. Greg at least can show that he's a good player when uninjured. He'll probably, even if injured this season, get a decade's worth of contracts, from us or someone else.

 

[oldmangrouch]

How many contracts did Kwame Brown get after actually proving that he couldn't play the game? What about Olowokandi? Bargnani? Eddy Curry?

Yet, what was the media situation around them like?

Exactly right.

The only way Oden benefits from playing this season, is if he is 100% healthy and can knock everbody's socks off with his play. Even that assumes he is willing to re-sign with the Blazers at any price. He can sit, and still get a deal elsewhere.

 

[Natebishop3]

My post were legit questions.

For the last bunch of big men who went #1, what were their situations like? Kwame was exposed early as not being a good player, yet kept getting contracts for the next decade. He was getting trashed in the WAS sports scene.

Kandiman was shown early to be not a good player, but kept getting contracts for 8 years. He was trashed in LA (even while playing for the JV Clips).

Some of our Canadian friends know better than I, but I seem to recall that even Bargnani's contract was laughed at in the TOR area.

Eddy Curry was dumped on in NYC for being injured, out of shape, etc.

All I'm saying is that big men get trashed in the media in lots of places, and I'd say far worse than they do here--especially if they're high-hope disappointments. Greg at least can show that he's a good player when uninjured. He'll probably, even if injured this season, get a decade's worth of contracts, from us or someone else.

And not one of those guys had even a 10th of the hype that Oden did coming out of college. Tell me Brian, how many of them are still with the team that drafted them?

 

[blazerboy30]

After this season, they can offer anything they want up to max.

Then I'm incredibly confused about the negativity here. People are concerned that he's going to leave Portland even in the event that we will pay him more than any other team can?

That seems like a pretty good "problem" to have. What am I missing?

 

[Minstrel]

I recommend going through and reading the various Analyses of the Oden situation written over the last two years on Blazersedge. This was the worst case scenario for keeping Greg.

There's a huge difference between "worst case scenario for keeping him" and "he's guaranteed to leave." The two concepts are barely even related.

This may be the worst case in terms of keeping him long-term (as he could already be signed long-term, removing the chances of him leaving) but the Blazers still have a solid chance to retain him if they want to, by virtue of being able to pay him much more than anyone else.

As for soft issues that others bring up (like Oden "wanting a fresh start"), those can be argued in any direction you choose. Maybe he's tired of the pressure here so he'll be predisposed to leave. Or maybe he wants to give something back after disappointing for a lot of money so he'll be predisposed to stay. Since none of us are in Oden's head, it's close to worthless to even bring these types of factors up for the sake of analysis.

 

[BBert]

Until G.O. gets injured again, he's a healthy beast once-a-decade post coming off a surgery that should not hamper him going forward.

Until B-Roy gets injured, grinds his knees to dust, or starts pouting, he's at a minimum a good backup with the occassional "amazing" still left in him.

Until shown otherwise, LaMarcus has become the unquestioned leader of the team, is a bona-fide all star, improved his game (again) and put on 15 lbs of muscle.

Until there is a major windstorm, Chris Johnson has added 15 pounds of muscle, worked on his offensive game, and is good for 10 minutes a night.

Unless people think LaMarcus is a liar, Williams and Babbitt have improved by leaps and bounds.

Nico and Matthews will be better than last season. Crash will be acclimated to his role on the team. Book it.

OK, so Camby is probably done. It happens.

Why in the world wouldn't G.O. want to play in Portland on a team featuring LaMarcus Aldridge and the rest of this roster? It's a good roster, funded by a rich owner.

It's preseason. Preseason is a time for optimism. If not now, then never. Let's party.

 

[tlongII]

I think some of you are way too optimistic about this. Consider this -

1. This is a guy who has played in 82 games in four seasons and he just signed A ONE YEAR EXTENSION. That's a HUGE risk. He could injure his knee again and get nothing.

2. Portland has NOT been a positive experience for Oden.

A. The injuries have taken a toll on his psyche.
B. The pressure that was put on him for being the "savior" has taken a toll on him.
C. The negative media and fanspeak about him being a bust has taken a toll on him.

3. His personality has changed in the last four years. He's no longer the happy-go-lucky guy that made the country fall in love with him. He's very introverted and quiet. Very reserved.

4. If I was Greg I would want a clean start on a new team in a new city that:

A. Doesn't only have one team.
B. Doesn't have a tabloid rag like the Oregonian chasing after him.
C. Doesn't have all the demons that are listed above.

5. He can go to any team next season, leave some money on the table but play with other stars that would take pressure off him and he can just be Greg without having to worry about being the "savior".

I'm just really not seeing how this is a positive. Sure, we can sign him to more money than anyone else next summer, but what if he has a so-so season and still is commanding max money from other teams? Do we want to max him out just to keep him from leaving? My gut tells me Greg wants out. This city has not been a positive experience for him at all. The injuries, the hype, the "bust" label. Why would he want to stay here?

That's ridiculous. We're not talking about just leaving "some" money on the table. We're talking about 10's of millions of dollars! There's no freaking way he walks away from that.

 

[Nikolokolus]

That's ridiculous. We're not talking about just leaving "some" money on the table. We're talking about 10's of millions of dollars! There's no freaking way he walks away from that.

That all remains to be seen

 

[Minstrel]

That all remains to be seen

We're talking about tens of millions dollars if Oden plays enough and well enough to be worth it. If he doesn't, who cares if the Blazers keep him?

In other words, if Oden is worth keeping around, the Blazers have a huge advantage in keeping him.

 

[Natebishop3]

We're talking about tens of millions dollars if Oden plays enough and well enough to be worth it. If he doesn't, who cares if the Blazers keep him?

In other words, if Oden is worth keeping around, the Blazers have a huge advantage in keeping him.

Everyone is assuming that it's as black and white as:

1. Greg comes back and tears up the NBA. Now he's worth the max.

or

2. Greg comes back and gets injured again or sucks. Now nobody wants him.

What if it's not that simple? What if it's just as convoluted and difficult as it has always been with Greg since we drafted him?

3. Greg comes back, doesn't get injured again but only has a so-so season. (flashes of brilliance followed by "meh" games)

What do the Blazers do then? Do they give him the max? Tyson Chandler is supposedly worth max money. Why wouldn't some team offer Greg a big contract? The fear isn't that we will have to throw max money at an All-Star quality Greg Oden, the fear is that we will have to throw max money at the enigma that is Greg Oden coming off a somewhat promising season. I have always worried that we would have to give Greg a big contract without ever having really seen enough to prove that he's worth it. I still think he wants out of Portland, and why couldn't he force a trade if he convinces the team he wants out?

 

[Pinwheel1]

Everyone is assuming that it's as black and white as:

1. Greg comes back and tears up the NBA. Now he's worth the max.

or

2. Greg comes back and gets injured again or sucks. Now nobody wants him.

What if it's not that simple? What if it's just as convoluted and difficult as it has always been with Greg since we drafted him?

3. Greg comes back, doesn't get injured again but only has a so-so season. (flashes of brilliance followed by "meh" games)

What do the Blazers do then? Do they give him the max? Tyson Chandler is supposedly worth max money. Why wouldn't some team offer Greg a big contract? The fear isn't that we will have to throw max money at an All-Star quality Greg Oden, the fear is that we will have to throw max money at the enigma that is Greg Oden coming off a somewhat promising season. I have always worried that we would have to give Greg a big contract without ever having really seen enough to prove that he's worth it. I still think he wants out of Portland, and why couldn't he force a trade if he convinces the team he wants out?

You are right it is not black and white. No one knows how it will end including G.O
Things can change. Too many variables. Not sure why anyone thinks they know what the outcome will be.

 

[Nikolokolus]

That all remains to be seen

We're talking about tens of millions dollars if Oden plays enough and well enough to be worth it. If he doesn't, who cares if the Blazers keep him?

In other words, if Oden is worth keeping around, the Blazers have a huge advantage in keeping him.

Everyone is assuming that it's as black and white as:

1. Greg comes back and tears up the NBA. Now he's worth the max.

or

2. Greg comes back and gets injured again or sucks. Now nobody wants him.

What if it's not that simple? What if it's just as convoluted and difficult as it has always been with Greg since we drafted him?

3. Greg comes back, doesn't get injured again but only has a so-so season. (flashes of brilliance followed by "meh" games)

What do the Blazers do then? Do they give him the max? Tyson Chandler is supposedly worth max money. Why wouldn't some team offer Greg a big contract? The fear isn't that we will have to throw max money at an All-Star quality Greg Oden, the fear is that we will have to throw max money at the enigma that is Greg Oden coming off a somewhat promising season. I have always worried that we would have to give Greg a big contract without ever having really seen enough to prove that he's worth it. I still think he wants out of Portland, and why couldn't he force a trade if he convinces the team he wants out?

This is what I mean.

It. All. Remains. To. Be. Seen.

 

[PapaG]

This does not guarantee shit. No one has a clue what he will do.

Nah, he is gone. He doesn't even want to give the Blazers a shot to match an over market rfa offer, so he is announcing this before the fa period begins.

 

[PapaG]

Really??? He'd have to really want out of Portland to give up potentially $26 million and and extra year of guaranteed money - if healthy and productive. If he's not healthy and productive, do we really care if he leaves? If Portland really wants to keep him, they will have huge financial advanages over every other team in the league.

BNM

Portland is suddenly going to max Oden? Hahahahaha!

 

[Denny Crane]

Summer of 2012 is going to be a big FA year. Signing the QO was brilliant on every level. There will be teams with cap space to make him a max offer. If he has a great season, he could be in the top 3 free agents. He might even be in the top 3 if he doesn't play a game.

 

[PapaG]

I love that many here have come back even more delusional than before the lockout. Reading this thread, one would think that maxing Oden is a no-brainer. Are you being serious? Yes, Portland can offer more on a max deal. Big deal. At this point, either Oden gets maxed, which would make me lose al remaining faith in the idiots running the team, or Oden is gone. I can't believe anyone would find this a positive development.

 

[Natebishop3]

I just think this sends a message. Why would Oden pass up the chance to get a guaranteed contract when he hasn't had a single injury free season? This is a guy who has suffered some kind of knee injury in every season since he has been drafted. It would take a complete moron to pass up a guaranteed deal of four seasons with that kind of track record, so I believe his reasoning is not money related. I think he wants to leave. That's just what my gut tells me. I think Greg wants out of Portland and a fresh start and he's willing to take a chance and play a season without a secure future so that he can pick and choose his destination next summer.

 

[3RA1N1AC]

clearly he didnt want to lock himself into a 4/30 type of deal, he wants to dominate this year and get a huge deal next year. players do this all the time. he might stay he might leave, nobody knows

people that are saying hes gone have no fucking clue, take that guess to vegas and get some odds if you are so fucking sure