Race for the 5th-9th seeds

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Even if we lose, I still think we'll get it. I can't see Memphis getting more than 2 more wins and we have games against DEN, MIN, and SAC that we should win
 
Looking at the remaining schedules, I'm guessing:
(5) Portland wins 3 more games (43-39) [head-to-head vs Mem, 2-2. Portland will have a better conference record.]
(6) Memphis wins 2 more games (43-39)
(7) Utah wins 5 more games (42-40)
(8) Houston wins 4 more games (41-41)
-
(9) Dallas wins 3 more games (40-42)

The only disadvantage of getting that 5th seed is that we'll be facing the GSW in the second round instead of the conference finals. I'm okay with that. :)

Standings033116.jpg
 
42N8Bounce said:
Looking at the remaining schedules, I'm guessing:
(5) Portland wins 3 more games (43-39) [head-to-head vs Mem, 2-2. Portland will have a better conference record.]
(6) Memphis wins 2 more games (43-39)
(7) Utah wins 5 more games (42-40)
(8) Houston wins 4 more games (41-41)
-
(9) Dallas wins 3 more games (40-42)

The only disadvantage of getting that 5th seed is that we'll be facing the GSW in the second round instead of the conference finals. I'm okay with that. :)

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If Houston misses the playoffs, I'm bookmarking clutchfans for my light summer reading.
 
42N8Bounce said:
The only disadvantage of getting that 5th seed is that we'll be facing the GSW in the second round instead of the conference finals. I'm okay with that. :)
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I know this is getting way ahead of things; but I look at that as an advantage. We can score on the Warriors, as @KingAlbertoJrSpeed loves to point out. Can we slow them down defensively? Going to be tough but if they don't have Iggy thats really a game changer. Bogut and Ezeli have injuries too so theres a chance they could end up with a weak bench. We're a deep enough team to exploit it. The Warriors have periods where they have a lot of turnovers. Some teams have given them "trouble" when doubling Draymond. They can get overwhelmed on the boards.

I don't see any way we can beat the Spurs, or even be competitive. Against them I think the battle would be to not get swept. They are so deep and disciplined. They won't have the blowout wins the Warriors are capable of but it will be a slow painful hopeless death. How fun would it be for LaMarcus to sweep us from the playoffs?

Against the Warriors I could certainly seeing us pull out a few wins and make the series interesting. Highly unlikely we win a series against either but there's a slimmer of a couple percent of hope against Golden State. Don't even see a one percent chance against the Spurs. Losing to the Warriors would likely be a much more fun series as well.
 
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Scalma said:
There would be nothing more satisfying than eliminating doc rivers, his bitch son, the coward center, the midget point guard, short bus blake, and that hipster barista jj redick from the playoffs.
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Strenuus said:
If Houston misses the playoffs, I'm bookmarking clutchfans for my light summer reading.
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Most Rockets fans want to miss the playoffs so they keep their draft pick and just end their misery. Their pick debt won't carryover to next year so keeping it is much more beneficial to them than us. Think I might prefer they back into the 8th seed, lose the pick, and then get swept.
 
42N8Bounce said:
Looking at the remaining schedules, I'm guessing:
(5) Portland wins 3 more games (43-39) [head-to-head vs Mem, 2-2. Portland will have a better conference record.]
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How do you pick us only going 3-3 the rest of the way? Miami and OKC will both be on exhaustive back to backs if they even play their starters. Other teams we play are the Kings, Nuggets and Twolves. Only road games left are two quick flights. Yeah the Warriors will likely be a loss. I'd bet on 4-2; but think 5-1 may be just as if not more likely than 3-3.

With the way Memphis is playing they could seriously lose out. So we could conceivably even clinch 5th with the OKC game and 7 days left in the season.
 
Draco said:
How do you pick us only going 3-3 the rest of the way?
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Losses to MIA, GSW, and OKC. I agree there are reasons we could win those, but I'm trying to be a bit on the safe side. I think MIA is the most winnable of those 3.

I'm just happy and excited we are (most likely) headed to the playoffs!
 
Miami is playing in SAC tonight, and will be on the second night of a back to back in POR tomorrow, and will be on their 4th game in 6 nights. OKC will be in DEN the night before they play in POR and in their 3rd game in 4 nights. They also have locked up the 3 seed for the most part and have nothing to play for. Think we finally are getting some relief in the schedule after that brutal March. Just need to #tcb.

I'd rest our guys for Sunday @ GS. No point in that game.
 
Elton said:
Ummm...how about being the only visiting team to beat GS this year? Stranger things have happened.
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In addition to getting in their heads in advance of our eventual second round matchup. "Oh crap, we have to play these guys again? They've already beaten us twice!"
 
42N8Bounce said:
The only disadvantage of getting that 5th seed is that we'll be facing the GSW in the second round instead of the conference finals. I'm okay with that. :)
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That would be a nice problem to have.

Scalma said:
There would be nothing more satisfying than eliminating doc rivers, his bitch son, the coward center, the midget point guard, short bus blake, and that hipster barista jj redick from the playoffs.
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Can I get an 'Amen', a 'Hallelujah' and a 'Fo shizzle'!!
 
Blazers 40-36 (Updated)
BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109)
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad.
@GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost got 'Pop' and rest the starters that game.
@SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired.
MIN - Win...it's MIN
DEN - Win...better be a win.

That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38.

Memphis 41-34
TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause.
@ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win.
CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game.
@DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home.
GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier.
@LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em
@GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team.

*************************************************************************************************************

Tonight's TOR/MEM game is huge! The Raptors are trying to keep pace with the Cavs so this 'should' be a Memphis loss. If that happens, and it's down to a 1 game separation, I can't believe the Blazers can't at least tie them by the end of the season.
 
If we lose to Miami, we can still catch Memphis, but will Utah catch us for 5th? We need to win vs Miami and hopefully on the road against Sacramento.
 
Pinwheel1 said:
If we lose to Miami, we can still catch Memphis, but will Utah catch us for 5th? We need to win vs Miami and hopefully on the road against Sacramento.
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Good point. We may soon stop looking at Memphis and start looking at some teams behind us.

edit; Lucky for us we have tiebreaker with Utah so they need us to lose 3 even if they win out.
 
Well tonight is scoreboard watching of the Tor?MEM game....go Raptors!!
 
Draco said:
Blazers 40-36
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - Sat Apr2 10pm (EST) 69% win fivethirtyeight.com
@GS - b2b - Apr3 8pm NBATV
@SAC 3in4 - Apr5 10pm
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr6 10pm
MIN - Apr9 10:30pm
DEN - Apr13 10:30pm

Grizzlies 41-34
TOR - Fri Apr1 8pm 43% win
@ORL - Apr3 6pm
CHI - Apr4 8pm
@DAL - Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
GS - b2b - Apr9 8pm
@LAC - Apr12 10:30pm TNT
@GS - b2b - Apr13 10:30pm

Jazz 37-38
MIN - Fri Apr1 9pm 85% win
@PHX - Apr3 6pm
SAS - Apr5 9pm
LAC - Apr8 9pm
@DEN - Apr10 5pm
DAL - b2b opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr11 9pm
@LA L - opponent 3in4 - Apr13 10:30pm ESPN

Mavericks 37-38
@DET - Fri Apr1 7:30pm 33% win
@MIN - Apr3 3:30pm
HOU - Apr6 9:30pm ESPN
MEM - Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
@LAC - Apr10 3:30pm NBATV
@UTH - b2b 3in4 opponent b2b - Apr11 9pm
SAS - opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr13 8pm

Rockets 37-39
OKC - Sun Apr3 3:30pm ABC 39% win
@DAL - Apr6 9:30pm ESPN
PHX - b2b - Apr7 9pm
LAL - Apr10 3:30pm
@MIN - b2b - Apr11 8pm
SAC - Apr13 8pm

Tie breakers
Blazers own UTH own MEM lost HOU lost DAL
Grizzlies behind DAL 1-2 behind HOU(-1div) lost UTH lost PDX
Jazz own MEM tied DAL 1-1 lost HOU lost PDX
Mavericks own PDX lead MEM 2-1 tied UTH 1-1 behind HOU 1-2
Rockets own UTH own PDX lead DAL 2-1 lead MEM(+1 div)

Picks
Blazers lose 1st round pick if in playoffs to Denver
Rockets lose 1st round pick if in playoffs to Denver
Grizzlies lose 1st round pick if in lottery to Denver
Mavericks 1st round pick is owned by Boston

Fivethirtyeight.com final projections as of Apr1;
Blazers 43-39
Grizzlies 43-39
Rockets 41-41
Jazz 41-41
Mavericks 40-42​

ESPN gives us these chances of seeds:
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Updated the original post; put some win probabilities in there from fivethirtyeight, times of games. Grizz, Rockets, Jazz all play tonight.

ESPN gives us these chances "BPI has 48 percent chance of 5th, 38 percent chance of 6th, 10 percent chance of 7th and a 4 percent chance of 8th."
 
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Grizz lose. They're 2-9 in their last 11 games. We're only one game behind them and we got the tiebreaker. They play the Warriors twice. Think I'm more worried about Utah catching us than the Grizz. Utah is only up 4 on Minnesota in the 3rd.

Go Blazers!
 
Knock, knock. Hello Memphis. Blazers win tomorrow and they'll be a half game back. Wow. Unfortunately the Grizzles have their easiest remaining game, at Orlando, while Portland has their toughest remaining game, at Golden State, on Sunday. So we might be in the exact same position come Sunday night. But you've gotta win tomorrow if you're the Blazers.
 
cardova08 said:
Knock, knock. Hello Memphis. Blazers win tomorrow and they'll be a half game back. Wow. Unfortunately the Grizzles have their easiest remaining game, at Orlando, while Portland has their toughest remaining game, at Golden State, on Sunday. So we might be in the exact same position come Sunday night. But you've gotta win tomorrow if you're the Blazers.
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I dunno; at this rate we might only have to win once in our last 6 games.
 
The thing about Utah is that they've been streaky all year. They win 4 and then lose 3, over and over. So they are do for one more rough patch.

Dallas is the one I'm worried about since they own the tiebreaker.
 
Blazers 40-36 (Updated)
BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109)
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad.
@GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost go 'Pop' and rest the starters that game.
@SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. It's why I think POR should rest against GS.
MIN - Win...it's MIN
DEN - Win...better be a win.

That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38.

Memphis 41-35 (Updated)
TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. (Loss 99-95) Impressed it was that close.
@ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win.
CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game.
@DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home.
GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier.
@LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em
@GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team.

Boston beating GS helps Portland in that if GS doesn't have the record wrapped up by that final game against MEM, they will not be resting their starters and that is good for the Blazers.
 
I think even if GS has the record they'll play starters 30 mins because they want every game they can tack on to it. Kind of depends what Spurs do at home too. If they can tie the Celtics and Spurs home 40-1 record they'll be more motivated to win at home. If Spurs are 41-0 then GS probably won't care as much.

I'm actually thinking it may be more likely Utah or Dallas catch us than Memphis stays ahead of us. I wouldn't say Memphis should win on the road at Orlando; they have a chance but I'd set them as a slight underdog. Orlando has had so many lottery picks they don't care about tanking like some teams would in their spot. Fivethirtyeight.com gives Memphis a 42% chance of winning in Orlando.

Tonights game against Miami is big. After that I'd say Sacramento is the most toss up game we have. Boogie has been rested one game and sat out suspended another so he wants to put on a show. They try much harder at home. He's climbed up the NBA FT charts to share attempts per game with Harden. We don't have bigs with success defending him. Maybe we polish off Kaveman for this game. Still he's 33 and can't stay in front of Boogie 1v1 so it needs to be our whole team pitching in. Being on the 3rd in 4 nights; it won't be easy.
 
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Every team plays tonight,

Us at Golden State 8pm EST NBATV
Memphis at Orlando 6pm
Utah at Phoenix 6pm
Dallas at Minnesota 3:30pm
Houston vs Oklahoma City 3:30pm ABC
 
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