Race for the 5th-9th seeds

[TBpup]

Blazers 41-36 (Updated)
BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109)
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad. (Win 110-93) Wade out, 3 games in 4 nights...inevitable.
@GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost go 'Pop' and rest the starters that game.
@SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. It's why I think POR should rest against GS.
MIN - Win...it's MIN
DEN - Win...better be a win.

That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38.

Memphis 41-35 (Updated)
TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. (Loss 99-95) Impressed it was that close.
@ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win.
CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game.
@DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home.
GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier.
@LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em
@GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team.

 

[Draco]

Houston wins Dallas wins.

Orlando up 14-6 on Memphis. Grizz have come back to tie it though.

If the Grizz lose tonight they could seriously lose out and miss the playoffs.

 

[BonesJones]

Yall really think Utah and Dallas can catch us?

 

[oldmangrouch]

Yall really think Utah and Dallas can catch us?

Don't trust fat ladies. Failure is always an option. Having spent many years rooting for the Ducks and Blazers, I am tempted to say failure is an inevitability.

 

[Draco]

Yall really think Utah and Dallas can catch us?

Can, yes. Likely, probably not. Utah has a very easy schedule though; they could run the table. If we lose tonight, in Sac and against OKC, all certainly possible, then Utah controls their own destiny.

Memphis down 67-56 at half in Orlando.

 

[B-Roy]

So after that expected loss at Golden State, the Blazers are 41-37 with 4 games left.

Can we win out?

@ Sac
vs OKC
vs Min
vs Den

I think Minnesota and Denver are guaranteed wins. The other two could be dicey.

Memphis has a brutal schedule to end the season.

vs Chi
@ Dal
vs GS
@ LAC
@ GS

Even if GS and Lac rest their guys, Memphis probably isn't even as good as those teams second units.

I don't see Dallas, Houston or Utah catching us. Dallas can conceivable do it by winning out, since they play Utah, Houston and Memphis to end the season, but what are the chances of that?

 

[Draco]

Memphis is irrelevant, they're most likely to miss the playoffs.

Dallas is only one loss behind us and has the tiebreaker. They've won 4 straight and are getting contributions up and down their roster. Utah is a concern too but we have the tiebreaker with them which makes it a two game lead.

Big game Tuesday in Sacramento. They've been playing everyone and trying much harder at home. We don't have anyone to defend Cousins.

 

[B-Roy]

Can, yes. Likely, probably not. Utah has a very easy schedule though; they could run the table. If we lose tonight, in Sac and against OKC, all certainly possible, then Utah controls their own destiny.

Memphis down 67-56 at half in Orlando.

Utah has to win out and hope Blazers lose two in order to overtake us. Blazers have the tiebreaker.

 

[oldmangrouch]

After the Blazers lose the next 2 games, this is going to get real ugly.

 

[B-Roy]

After the Blazers lose the next 2 games, this is going to get real ugly.

OKC is on the 2nd of a back to back, already having the 3rd seed locked up. Billy Donovan has already rested KD and Ibaka last week, and this game seems like a prime game for them to rest their starters.

 

[TBpup]

Blazers 41-37 (Updated)
BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109)
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad. (Win 110-93) Wade out, 3 games in 4 nights...inevitable.
@GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost go 'Pop' and rest the starters that game.
.......(Loss 136-111) Didn't rest anyone and still got blown out by 25. Now they are facing must win games to keep DAL and UTA at bay.
@SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. It's why I think POR should rest against GS.
MIN - Win...it's MIN
DEN - Win...better be a win.

That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38.

Memphis 41-36 (Updated)
TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. (Loss 99-95) Impressed it was that close.
@ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win. (Loss 119-107) MEM just doesn't have the bodies....reeling.
CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game.
@DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home.
GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier.
@LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. Pick 'em
@GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team.

With the expected GS loss, Portland is still only 1/2 game behind MEM for 5th but it's more now about staying ahead of DAL and UTA who both have only 1 more loss than the Blazers.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The fivethrityeight.com robots have Memphis winning one more game the rest of the way (probably vs CHI) to go 42-40. They have Portland going 3-1 (with the most likely loss against OKC) to go 44-38.

The best news in all of this is the rest we'll get before the last two games (2 days, then 3 days). That'll help A LOT heading into the playoffs.

 

[Draco]

Blazers 41-37
@SAC 3in4 - Tue Apr5 10pm (EST)
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr6 10pm
MIN - Apr9 10:30pm
DEN - Apr13 10:30pm

Grizzlies 41-36
CHI - Tue Apr5 8pm
@DAL - Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
GS - b2b - Apr9 8pm
@LAC - Apr12 10:30pm TNT
@GS - b2b - Apr13 10:30pm

Jazz 39-38
SAS - Tue Apr5 9pm
LAC - Apr8 9pm
@DEN - Apr10 5pm
DAL - b2b opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr11 9pm
@LA L - opponent 3in4 - Apr13 10:30pm ESPN

Mavericks 39-38
HOU - Wed Apr6 9:30pm ESPN
MEM - Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
@LAC - Apr10 3:30pm NBATV
@UTH - b2b 3in4 opponent b2b - Apr11 9pm
SAS - opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr13 8pm

Rockets 38-39
@DAL - Wed Apr6 9:30pm ESPN
PHX - b2b - Apr7 9pm
LAL - Apr10 3:30pm
@MIN - b2b - Apr11 8pm
SAC - Apr13 8pm

Tie breakers
Blazers own UTH own MEM lost HOU lost DAL
Grizzlies behind DAL 1-2 behind HOU(-1div) lost UTH lost PDX
Jazz own MEM tied DAL 1-1 lost HOU lost PDX
Mavericks own PDX lead MEM 2-1 tied UTH 1-1 behind HOU 1-2
Rockets own UTH own PDX lead DAL 2-1 lead MEM(+1 div)

Picks
Blazers lose 1st round pick if in playoffs to Denver
Rockets lose 1st round pick if in playoffs to Denver
Grizzlies lose 1st round pick if in lottery to Denver
Mavericks 1st round pick is owned by Boston

I'm going to assume we can win the last two home games with rest against tanking teams packing for their summer in Minny and Denver.

So the schedule really comes down to our next two games against Sacramento and OKC.

If we lose the next two I'd say its still likely we end up with the 5th seed. It would be a nail biting scrape to the finish though. We'd need our opponents to finish with the following or worse;

Jazz 4-1
Grizz 2-3
Mavs 3-2* (possibly 4-1 as we could win 3 way tie with Jazz)
Rockets 4-1​

Remember though; the Mavs play both the Rockets and Jazz so there are a guaranteed 2 losses to one of those teams. We only need two more losses somewhere out of those three teams. I don't see how the Grizz finish better than 2-3; they might be worse than the 6ers right now and play the Warriors twice.

If we win one of Sac or OKC then we almost for sure will lock up the 5th seed. It wouldn't matter what the Jazz or Rockets do. We'd need our opponents to finish with the following or worse:

Grizz 3-2
Mavs 4-1​

If we can win both the Sac and OKC games; then we likely have a shot of officially securing the 5th seed on Apr9th with Minnesota. That then gives us a practice game to finish the regular season and an entire week to gameplan exclusively for the Clippers.

Go Blazers!

 

[dviss1]

OKC is on the 2nd of a back to back, already having the 3rd seed locked up. Billy Donovan has already rested KD and Ibaka last week, and this game seems like a prime game for them to rest their starters.

PLUS:

Those MFs don't wanna see us in the playoffs!

 

[illmatic99]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/trailblazersstandings.html

72% chance at #5
20% at 6
6% at 7
2% at 8

1% out of playoffs

Magic # for playoffs is 1 win + 1 HOU loss.

 

[Strenuus]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/trailblazersstandings.html

72% chance at #5
20% at 6
6% at 7
2% at 8

1% out of playoffs

Magic # for playoffs is 1 win + 1 HOU loss.

Here's Tunchi:

 

[Tunchi]

Here's Tunchi:

HAHA

 

[Strenuus]

HAHA

hehe, glad you have a sense of humor, man.

 

[Draco]

Blazers 42-37
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Wed Apr6 10pm (EST)
MIN - Apr9 10:30pm
DEN - Apr13 10:30pm

Grizzlies 42-36
@DAL - Fri Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
GS - b2b - Apr9 8pm
@LAC - Apr12 10:30pm TNT
@GS - b2b - Apr13 10:30pm

Mavericks 39-38
HOU - Wed Apr6 9:30pm ESPN
MEM - Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
@LAC - Apr10 3:30pm NBATV
@UTH - b2b 3in4 opponent b2b - Apr11 9pm
SAS - opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr13 8pm

Jazz 39-39
LAC - Fri Apr8 9pm
@DEN - Apr10 5pm
DAL - b2b opponent b2b 3in4 - Apr11 9pm
@LA L - opponent 3in4 - Apr13 10:30pm ESPN

Rockets 38-39
@DAL - Wed Apr6 9:30pm ESPN
PHX - b2b - Apr7 9pm
LAL - Apr10 3:30pm
@MIN - b2b - Apr11 8pm
SAC - Apr13 8pm

Tie breakers
Blazers own UTH own MEM lost HOU lost DAL
Grizzlies behind DAL 1-2 behind HOU(-1div) lost UTH lost PDX
Jazz own MEM tied DAL 1-1 lost HOU lost PDX
Mavericks own PDX lead MEM 2-1 tied UTH 1-1 behind HOU 1-2
Rockets own UTH own PDX lead DAL 2-1 lead MEM(+1 div)

Picks
Blazers lose 1st round pick if in playoffs to Denver
Rockets lose 1st round pick if in playoffs to Denver
Grizzlies lose 1st round pick if in lottery to Denver
Mavericks 1st round pick is owned by Boston

Our Blazers are down to only 3 games left. To get the 5th seed the below record or worse are what we need from our opponents.

If we win all 3;

MEM 3-1​

If we win 2 of 3;

MEM 2-2
DAL 4-1​

If we only win 1 games;

MEM 1-3
DAL 3-2
HOU 4-1​

What I'm going to root for is Houston to beat Dallas tomorrow, Dallas to beat Memphis on Friday, then Golden State to beat Memphis on Saturday. If we win tomorrow that will give us a chance to clinch the 5th seed Saturday night against Minnesota a full week before the playoffs begin.

Go Blazers!

 

[TBpup]

Blazers 42-37 (Updated)
BOS - a must win to have a chance at #5. Payback due as well. (Win 116-109)
MIA - opponent b2b 3in4 - should be a win against a tired, road weary MIA squad. (Win 110-93) Wade out, 3 games in 4 nights...inevitable.
@GS - b2b - Loss. GS going for a historical record with Portland on a b2b. I would almost go 'Pop' and rest the starters that game.
.......(Loss 136-111) Didn't rest anyone and still got blown out by 25. Now they are facing must win games to keep DAL and UTA at bay.
@SAC 3in4 - Another 'must win' game even though POR struggles there. Possibly depends on who is in the lineup for SAC. (Win 115-107)
........SAC sat Gay, Belinelli, Collison, Koufos and Casspi and Harkless went nuts.
OKC - b2b 4in5 opponent b2b 3in4 - Have to win your home games. Both teams will be tired. It's why I think POR should rest against GS. OKC may sit...
......players as they have clinched #3 and would probably rather play MEM than POR anyhow.
MIN - Win...it's MIN
DEN - Win...better be a win.

That gives POR a 45-37 record but I'm not sure I see them going 6-1 down the stretch so with wiggle room, 44-38.

Memphis 42-36 (Updated)
TOR - Loss. Raptors still chasing CLE. Glad this game isn't any later in the season when it might be a lost cause. (Loss 99-95) Impressed it was that close.
@ORL - Magic out of the Playoffs so it's about how MEM plays. Should be a win. (Loss 119-107) MEM just doesn't have the bodies....reeling.
CHI - Battle of the injured lineups. Pick 'em game. (Win 108-92) Chicago just didn't show up.
@DAL - Loss. Mavs fighting for that last Playoff spot at home.
GS - b2b - Loss. Warriors on their quest helps us when it hurt us a few days earlier.
@LAC - Clippers likely in a 'no-win' scenario and may rest their starters. May rest starters to help MEM so they can play them in the Playoffs.
@GS - b2b Should be a loss but GS may have the record wrapped up by then and might sit starters against a hungry MEM team.

Now you get into some of the games where teams start sitting players for rest or Playoff positioning. No reason for OKC to play Durant or Westbrook as it's their 3 game in 4 nights, they have clinched the #3 spot and by allowing Portland to win, they have a better chance of playing MEM in the Playoffs and moving the Blazers to the Clippers. Clippers may do the same thing when playing MEM so they can get them instead of POR in the Playoffs.

 

[illmatic99]

I love this stuff.

1. We win -- we clinch a spot for the playoffs regardless of what happens in HOU/DAL game.
2. DAL beat HOU tonight and we win -- we can not only clinch playoffs, but finish no worse than 7

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I like where your heart is at, but....
I just can't root for Houston.

Our Blazers are down to only 3 games left. To get the 5th seed the below record or worse are what we need from our opponents.

If we win all 3;

MEM 3-1​

If we win 2 of 3;

MEM 2-2
DAL 4-1​

If we only win 1 games;

MEM 1-3
DAL 3-2
HOU 4-1​

What I'm going to root for is Houston to beat Dallas tomorrow, Dallas to beat Memphis on Friday, then Golden State to beat Memphis on Saturday. If we win tomorrow that will give us a chance to clinch the 5th seed Saturday night against Minnesota a full week before the playoffs begin.

Go Blazers!

 

[B-Roy]

I'm going to assume we can win the last two home games with rest against tanking teams packing for their summer in Minny and Denver.

So the schedule really comes down to our next two games against Sacramento and OKC.

If we lose the next two I'd say its still likely we end up with the 5th seed. It would be a nail biting scrape to the finish though. We'd need our opponents to finish with the following or worse;

Jazz 4-1
Grizz 2-3
Mavs 3-2* (possibly 4-1 as we could win 3 way tie with Jazz)
Rockets 4-1​

Remember though; the Mavs play both the Rockets and Jazz so there are a guaranteed 2 losses to one of those teams. We only need two more losses somewhere out of those three teams. I don't see how the Grizz finish better than 2-3; they might be worse than the 6ers right now and play the Warriors twice.

If we win one of Sac or OKC then we almost for sure will lock up the 5th seed. It wouldn't matter what the Jazz or Rockets do. We'd need our opponents to finish with the following or worse:

Grizz 3-2
Mavs 4-1​

If we can win both the Sac and OKC games; then we likely have a shot of officially securing the 5th seed on Apr9th with Minnesota. That then gives us a practice game to finish the regular season and an entire week to gameplan exclusively for the Clippers.

Go Blazers!

I'm pretty sure the Blazers own the tiebreaker against Houston by having a better conference record.

27-22 vs 25-22 right now. Of course that can all change between now and the end of the season but as of now the Blazers own the tiebreak.

 

[TBpup]

I like where your heart is at, but....
I just can't root for Houston.

I know what you mean, but how is this.

Houston makes the #8 spot thereby losing their Draft pick. Then they upset the Warriors and the Blazers manage to beat the Clips. Then Portland dismisses Houston AGAIN from the Playoffs and sends them home in shame with no Draft pick, no Clutch City, no Warriors shimmy dancing.....and Portland is in the WCF against the Spurs.

Damn...what was in that drink?

 

[Draco]

I'm pretty sure the Blazers own the tiebreaker against Houston by having a better conference record.

27-22 vs 25-22 right now. Of course that can all change between now and the end of the season but as of now the Blazers own the tiebreak.

If the Blazers and Rockets end up with the same record it's mathematically impossible for us to have the same or better conference record. We'd have more losses the rest of the season than them. There isn't any scenario where we can win a tiebreaker with them in a two way tie. The conference records if we are not tied is irrelevant.

 

[Orion Bailey]

I know what you mean, but how is this.

Houston makes the #8 spot thereby losing their Draft pick. Then they upset the Warriors and the Blazers manage to beat the Clips. Then Portland dismisses Houston AGAIN from the Playoffs and sends them home in shame with no Draft pick, no Clutch City, no Warriors shimmy dancing.....and Portland is in the WCF against the Spurs.

Damn...what was in that drink?

I dunno, but pour me a glass!!!

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I know what you mean, but how is this.

Houston makes the #8 spot thereby losing their Draft pick. Then they upset the Warriors and the Blazers manage to beat the Clips. Then Portland dismisses Houston AGAIN from the Playoffs and sends them home in shame with no Draft pick, no Clutch City, no Warriors shimmy dancing.....and Portland is in the WCF against the Spurs.

Damn...what was in that drink?

sounds OK, but How about this:
We get 5th seed, beat Clips.
SA gets Utah and loses in 1st round.

Lillard gets farther in the playoffs than LMA!

Houston resigns Howard to 5-year supermax deal!

 

[Draco]

Blazers 43-37
MIN - Sat Apr9 10:30pm (EST)
DEN - Wed Apr13 10:30pm

Grizzlies 42-36
@DAL - Fri Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
GS - b2b - Sat Apr9 8pm
@LAC - Tue Apr12 10:30pm TNT
@GS - b2b - Wed Apr13 10:30pm

Mavericks 40-38
MEM - Fri Apr8 8:30pm NBATV
@LAC - Sun Apr10 3:30pm NBATV
@UTH - b2b 3in4opponent b2b - Mon Apr11 9pm
SAS - opponent b2b 3in4 - Wed Apr13 8pm

2 games left. To get the 5th seed we need the following;

If we win both:

1 Memphis loss​

If we win one and lose one:

2 Memphis losses
1 Dallas loss​

If we lose both:

3 Memphis losses
2 Dallas losses​

We will officially finish above that Houston shit show. I don't think Utah can beat us in any tiebreakers either; so we have at least the 7th seed. If we take care of business Saturday with Minnesota could wrap up the 5th seed as early as Sunday; although if the teams we need to lose don't lose that night then most likely it'll be clinched on Monday or Tuesday and we'll have a meaningless practice game to end the year.

Go Blazers!

 

[TBpup]

Talkin' Ball talking about just what we've been talking about here. Taking better shots to get going and then take the tougher ones when you are in rhythm and have more of a flow. It's almost like some people read this thread.....

 

[Natebishop3]

Talkin' Ball talking about just what we've been talking about here. Taking better shots to get going and then take the tougher ones when you are in rhythm and have more of a flow. It's almost like some people read this thread.....

What if the easy shots aren't there for him? He's the #1 option to stop on offense.