Race to The Bottom - Final Days

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wizenheimer

wizenheimer

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at the very bottom...congrats to the Jazz and Danny Ainge..? They'll be one of three teams with the best lottery odds. Somehow, they are ahead of the Wizards. Theoretically, they could end up with a best of the 1st pick and the 14th pick (Minny's).. The Pelicans tanked strategically well, but not quite well enough to be bottom-3

As for Portland, the race for 8th-9th is over. The Spurs are smart enough to stay ahead of the Blazers. Portland had a shot at 8th but blew it out of the water yesterday afternoon. Dark day in the Rose City

so, where will the Blazers end up?

@ Utah Jazz
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers

Utah is no danger of dropping out of the best lottery odd, so maybe they'll give an honest effort Wednesday night. However, the Utah injury report isn't encouraging...if you're rooting for a Blazer loss:

upload_2025-4-7_8-29-51.png

as for Portland's final 2 games, it needs a look at the WC playoff race:

upload_2025-4-7_8-31-17.png

notice there are 4 teams tied for 5th seed (or 8th seed), and all 4 are just 1/2 game behind the Nuggets for 4th seed and HCA in the 1st round. I'm not going to bother looking at tiebreakers, But right now I'd think the Warriors are motivated to win. That might change a little by Friday night when they visit Portland, but odds are they will be needing a win...good news for the dregs of any tank left

The Lakers have a difficult 3 games before the final against Portland: @Oklahoma City Thunder; @ Dallas Mavericks; Houston Rockets. It could be they will need a win against the Blazers. However, it also could be that game will mean nothing and they'll rest everybody

The Blazers could solve the puzzle by going 0-3. Even so, they could still end up tied with the Suns for 9th. Miami has an incredibly easy last 4 games. Chicago's final 2 games are against Washington and Philly

Portland could go 0-3 and stay in 9th. They could go 1-2 and end up in 10th. But they could actually go 2-1 or 3-0 and drop to 12th. 8th seed has a 1-in-4 chance at a top 4 pick; 9th seed has a 1-in-5 chance; 10th seed a 1-in-9 chance; 11th seed has the same 1-in-9 chance. 12th seed has a 1-in-14 chance
 
Do you guys think we sit every impactful player now? Sharpe and Toumani now sit as well? I hope so.
 
We’re probably going to win out and even pass Phoenix.
 
In all honesty I think the only surprise is that we did better than the Spurs and the 76ers. Rest of the teams you would figure would be a toss up as far as where they fall in the lottery standings.

Pelicans are tragically bad. They need to do something, because they’ve had no real identity after AD. Neither CJ, nor Zion are the answer for them. They actually need to just restart by rolling the dice with youth, but I don’t know their future draft situation.

I was okay with losing, because I didn’t think we had a chance to win. I don’t generally go that route, but I thought it was a reasonable path to future success. Or that “if there ever was a time”. Like instead of our championship window closing, our being bad and benefiting from it window is closing. This really could have been the chance to be bad when we’re not actually that bad.

I’m not pessimistic about the future due to that we (likely) aren’t going to get the #1 pick in a year where that pick is projected by many to become a star. I think we saw the most talented basketball player of the 2020’s being drafted last year. Sometimes that #1 pick really could be the difference between winning a championship, but that has to be proven by winning a championship. Idk that we will be looking back and actually hating the fact that we didn’t full tank the season and stand a better chance at the #1 overall. But I guess the possibility is technically there.

There’s also clearly a lot of teams in a worse situation than us, because we did see potential for success from this team - where other teams (like the Suns and 76ers) failed to meet expectations. 76ers are also a disaster nightmare scenario. I wake up in a cold sweat dreaming that I was a 76ers fan. They are most certainly cooked as well, which means we are a step ahead of them as we have already started to transition and go forward in a new era. The 76ers, like the Pelicans, need a complete overhaul - and for them that’s not going to be easy.
 
wizenheimer said:
View attachment 73201

at the very bottom...congrats to the Jazz and Danny Ainge..? They'll be one of three teams with the best lottery odds. Somehow, they are ahead of the Wizards. Theoretically, they could end up with a best of the 1st pick and the 14th pick (Minny's).. The Pelicans tanked strategically well, but not quite well enough to be bottom-3

As for Portland, the race for 8th-9th is over. The Spurs are smart enough to stay ahead of the Blazers. Portland had a shot at 8th but blew it out of the water yesterday afternoon. Dark day in the Rose City

so, where will the Blazers end up?

@ Utah Jazz
Golden State Warriors
Los Angeles Lakers

Utah is no danger of dropping out of the best lottery odd, so maybe they'll give an honest effort Wednesday night. However, the Utah injury report isn't encouraging...if you're rooting for a Blazer loss:

View attachment 73202

as for Portland's final 2 games, it needs a look at the WC playoff race:

View attachment 73203

notice there are 4 teams tied for 5th seed (or 8th seed), and all 4 are just 1/2 game behind the Nuggets for 4th seed and HCA in the 1st round. I'm not going to bother looking at tiebreakers, But right now I'd think the Warriors are motivated to win. That might change a little by Friday night when they visit Portland, but odds are they will be needing a win...good news for the dregs of any tank left

The Lakers have a difficult 3 games before the final against Portland: @Oklahoma City Thunder; @ Dallas Mavericks; Houston Rockets. It could be they will need a win against the Blazers. However, it also could be that game will mean nothing and they'll rest everybody

The Blazers could solve the puzzle by going 0-3. Even so, they could still end up tied with the Suns for 9th. Miami has an incredibly easy last 4 games. Chicago's final 2 games are against Washington and Philly

Portland could go 0-3 and stay in 9th. They could go 1-2 and end up in 10th. But they could actually go 2-1 or 3-0 and drop to 12th. 8th seed has a 1-in-4 chance at a top 4 pick; 9th seed has a 1-in-5 chance; 10th seed a 1-in-9 chance; 11th seed has the same 1-in-9 chance. 12th seed has a 1-in-14 chance
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The fact that Philly and New Orleans dropped that far is disgusting.
 
As a diehard Hornets hater(Odd I know since I was born and raised in NC and still live here haha) hope they don't get the 1st pick but does seem almost Kismet if you will that they get it and get Flagg.

The Duke and Hornet fans I know will explode in ecstasy.
 
e_blazer said:
They won in 2007. The Blazers got the first pick in the NBA draft that year, but I’m not sure that drafting Oden would be considered a win.
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We drafted Florida's PG Taurean Green in 2007 after winning the Natty. Short-lived NBA career but successful international career. He's assistant coach of the Gators now.
 
inconceivable said:
We drafted Florida's PG Taurean Green in 2007 after winning the Natty. Short-lived NBA career but successful international career. He's assistant coach of the Gators now.
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Damn totally forgot about him.

Yeah we drafted Greg Oden, Petteri Koponen, Taurean Green, and Josh McRoberts all in that draft.

There was actually a lot of excitement for McRoberts at the time. He never became more than a deep bench player, though he played over 4x as many NBA games as Oden.

Koponen has been coaching awhile - but he's 3 year younger than CP3! CP3 is somehow on track to play 82 games this year, and was drafted two years before all of those 2007 draft players.

petteri-koponen-in-charge-of-the-breakers-HMXA7QMIOJCVRPTM23MKDSUJ4E.jpg
 
Just really can't let the Suns (actually Nets) get in front of us for the lotto and likely the draft. Definitely can't let the 9th and 10th seeds in the East get in front of us. Even though we're even with the Suns in wins... we just can't win another game. No one can tell me that any of these last three games actually mean anything to the development of any of our players.

Sit Shaedon, sit Tou and keep on sitting everyone that's been sitting. Let Banton try to show out because he's a free agent, figure out how valuable guys like Rupes, Kris and Bari are going forward. Just don't fucking win and hope the Suns win 1 of their last 4 games. Wins have only been self harm and now it would just be ridiculous.

With that said, they'll probably still play both Shae and Tou and if they do they'll beat the Jazz and possibly end up in a tie for the 10-12 picks with the Bulls and Heat. SMH. Just can't believe that this was the season where ownership or management lost their stomach for tanking
 
Suns lost and now both Suns and Blazers have identical 35-44 records

remaining Phoenix games:

Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
@ Sacramento Kings

even if the Blazers lose their final three they may end up tied with Phoenix, although odds are the Suns can beat the Spurs...maybe

if they are tied, Portland's chances of a top-4 pick drop from 20.2% to 17.2%

if Portland drops from 9th to 10th, their chances drop from from 20.2% to 13.9%

Portland only has a 1 game lead on Miami & Chicago

if Portland ends up tied for 10th seed with one of them, their chances drop from 20.2% to 11.6%

if Portland drops from 9th to 11th, their chances drop from 20.2% to 9.6%
 
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wizenheimer said:
Suns lost and now both Suns and Blazers have identical 35-44 records

remaining Phoenix games:

Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
@ Sacramento Kings

even if the Blazers lose their final three they may end up tied with Phoenix, although odds are the Suns can beat the Spurs...maybe

if they are tied, Portland's chances of a top-4 pick drop from 20.2% to 17.2%

if Portland drops from 9th to 10th, their chances from from 20.2% to 13.9%

Portland only has a 1 game lead on Miami & Chicago

if Portland ends up tied for 10th seed with one of them, their chances drop from 20.2% to 11.6%

if Portland drops from 9th to 11th, their chances drop from 20.2% to 9.6%
Click to expand...
You should add twelfth in their too because if we drop behind Phoenix, Miami and Chicago that's where we'll be. Assuming both Miami and Chicago miss the playoffs.

We've really bungled this situation. There was absolutely no reason that Tou played in that last game... we shouldn't have even had Shae in there. We had control of that 9th lotto spot and now we have to depend on the Suns winning a game in order to take sole possession of ninth back. We're playing like someone else owns the unconditional rights to our pick and the Suns are playing like they have the rights to theirs. Fucking ridiculous.
 
wizenheimer said:
Suns lost and now both Suns and Blazers have identical 35-44 records

remaining Phoenix games:

Oklahoma City Thunder
San Antonio Spurs
@ Sacramento Kings

even if the Blazers lose their final three they may end up tied with Phoenix, although odds are the Suns can beat the Spurs...maybe

if they are tied, Portland's chances of a top-4 pick drop from 20.2% to 17.2%

if Portland drops from 9th to 10th, their chances from from 20.2% to 13.9%

Portland only has a 1 game lead on Miami & Chicago

if Portland ends up tied for 10th seed with one of them, their chances drop from 20.2% to 11.6%

if Portland drops from 9th to 11th, their chances drop from 20.2% to 9.6%
Click to expand...

Thanks for keeping up on this. Great info for those of us that don't know all of the minutia of the cba and draft lottery details.
 
blazerkor said:
You should add twelfth in their too because if we drop behind Phoenix, Miami and Chicago that's where we'll be. Assuming both Miami and Chicago miss the playoffs.

We've really bungled this situation. There was absolutely no reason that Tou played in that last game... we shouldn't have even had Shae in there. We had control of that 9th lotto spot and now we have to depend on the Suns winning a game in order to take sole possession of ninth back. We're playing like someone else owns the unconditional rights to our pick and the Suns are playing like they have the rights to theirs. Fucking ridiculous.
Click to expand...

going from 9th to 12th is going from a 20.2% chance to a 7.2% chance. Put another way, that's going from a 1-in-5 chance to a 1-in-14 chance

as this season was starting, in some thread here, I said I had a suspicion that somehow the Blazer flowchart of Jody-->Bert-->Joe-->Chauncey would somehow manage to land on some of the worst outcomes for this season. Those outcomes were

* keeping all of the high priced veterans....check!
* always starting those veterans....check!
* no activity at the trade deadline....check!
* the veterans adding 10-12 meaningless wins....check!
* not tanking into a strong draft this year after tanking into a weak one last season....check!
* ending up in the bottom half of the lottery, maybe not even top-10....check incoming, maybe, probably
* misinterpreting the outcomes and simply rebooting the GM, Coach, and Roster next season....in process

now, having watched the team all season, even if the Blazers had done what they should have done and dumped Simons-Ayton-Grant-Timelord for whatever they could have got, paving the way for Avdija-Sharpe-Camara-Scoot-Clingan, I'm not sure the Blazers would be in a significantly better boat than they are; at least in the lottery and the near term. They might be the 8th seed ahead of the Spurs; maybe even the 7th seed ahead of the Raptors. But that's probably the apex of their lottery odds.
 
wizenheimer said:
now, having watched the team all season, even if the Blazers had done what they should have done and dumped Simons-Ayton-Grant-Timelord for whatever they could have got, paving the way for Avdija-Sharpe-Camara-Scoot-Clingan, I'm not sure the Blazers would be in a significantly better boat than they are; at least in the lottery and the near term. They might be the 8th seed ahead of the Spurs; maybe even the 7th seed ahead of the Raptors. But that's probably the apex of their lottery odds.
Click to expand...


Well, going by WS/48 - playing Grant over Deni / Tou was a tanking move. Playing DA over DC was also a tanking move. Playing Simons over Sharpe / Scoot was not - because even if they might be the future - they are still less efficient and conductive to winning than Simons per this stat. So, the big issue with playing the vets was only Simons over Sharpe / Scoot simply because he is better than them (winning wise) so far.
 
Can we pleaaaase lose tonight? Finishing behind Phoenix in the lotto standings is absolutely unacceptable
 
andalusian said:
Well, going by WS/48 - playing Grant over Deni / Tou was a tanking move. Playing DA over DC was also a tanking move. Playing Simons over Sharpe / Scoot was not - because even if they might be the future - they are still less efficient and conductive to winning than Simons per this stat. So, the big issue with playing the vets was only Simons over Sharpe / Scoot simply because he is better than them (winning wise) so far.
Click to expand...

however, Simons-Ayton-Grant-Timelord combined for 10 winshares. Having watched the games I'd say some timely hot shooting by Simons-Grant-Ayton generated 3 or 4 more wins. So, maybe 13-14 wins from those vets

now, replacement players acquired in trades would have probably generated 1-2 wins. Also, Camara led the Blazers in minutes/game at a shade under 33; Sharpe averaged 31; Deni averaged 30. So there wasn't much room for significantly more win shares with that trio. Again, maybe 1 or 2 more winshares. Scoot and Clingan might have, with extra minutes, generated another 1-2 winshares....at most

so if you subtract 13-14 wins generated by the vets and then add back 3-6 wins by the youth and replacement players, that lands somewhere in the 5-10 fewer wins realm. Say the Blazers have 26-29 wins. That would put them ahead of the Spurs for 8th and maybe ahead of the Raptors for 7th. Probably not ahead of the Nets for 6th

pure speculation obviously and the foundation is an assumption that actual wins in a specific situation would closely track winshares generally. Maybe a faulty assumption
 
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