Random thoughts from today's news/chats

[BrianFromWA]

Sean (Co Springs): What makes Rubio so good?
SportsNation David Thorpe: Mind and vision like Larry Bird's.

If this was Skip Bayless or even Simmons, I might just laugh at this. But Thorpe generally knows what he's talking about.

Jason (Ellicott City, MD): Will Rudy Fernandez be anything more than a role player?
SportsNation David Thorpe: I think so.

Added just for fun.

Mike (Philly): bigger love affair: broussard and lebron or simmons and durant?
SportsNation David Thorpe: Thorpe and Noah.

I found this interesting, because I'm coming more and more around on Noah. My position always was "I'd like him on the team if his mere appearance didn't want me to punch him". But I think that there's definitely a place (especially for us) for a semi-talented-and-pretty-athletic big with a huge motor. And he's working with Thorpe (who loves him), so he's got a good shot to make something of that "upside" and "potential". Buying low, perhaps?

Matt (Champaign, IL):: Best chance of being a superstar in three years: Rose, Beasley, Oden, Durant?
SportsNation David Thorpe: KD then Rose.

Not much of a surprise, but since it involved a PTB...

And from Hollinger:

Denver led the NBA in free-throw attempts per field goal attempt this season by a wide margin. The Nuggets' entire game is predicated on attacking the basket and getting guys to the free-throw line. Denver averaged .382 free-throw attempts per field goal attempt this season in a league where the average was .306. In other words, the Nuggets get about 20 percent more free-throw attempts than the average team.

"That's part of our personality," Nuggets coach George Karl said. "We want 30 free throws a game. That's our mentality. Every game we get 30 layups or more or 30 free throws or more, we have a high percentage of winning."

Orlando averaged .351, good for third in the league, with center Dwight Howard leading the league in free-throw attempts. This stat sometimes surprises people because the Magic are best known for shooting so many 3s, and often those two categories are mutually exclusive. They're a rare team for which that isn't the case.

His whole story is pretty interesting to me, but especially the parts I bolded. I really think that we had the tools LAST YEAR to have around the same stats, but didn't make use of it for whatever reason. I've talked before about the hierarchy (as I see it) of Shot Efficiency: FTs, dunks, open 3's, mid-range twos, then "Outlaw specials". (I kid, I kid...sorta). I think we're seeing that teams who take a vast majority of their shots from either inside 6 feet or outside 24 feet (and do it well) are the ones who are still playing. I'm not saying that there isn't room for someone with a good midrange game, but that option is well below dunks, layups, open 3's on the list. We have powerful inside players (if not fully developed yet, but even Przy can run a P&R if people get him the ball), we have amazing shooters (IIRC 5 or 6 who shoot 37% or better) and our coach is committed to "waiting for good shots". But here's what happened to us: During the season our FT/FG ratio was .305, just below the league average. In the playoffs (where generally it goes up by a pretty significant margin-- see the rest of the Hollinger article) our playoff FT/FG ratio was .264. IMO, even if we just keep the players we have, an insistence on losing the 15-23 foot shot in favor of either getting the ball inside more (for higher% shots or FTs) or kicking it around to an open 3pt shooter (higher eFG%) is much better for us. If we can get either a penetrator for drive-and-kicks or a gifted P&R PG, even better.

Chad Ford's Mock Draft:

At #24: Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard's perpetual search for a point guard continues. Last year, the team acquired lottery pick Jerryd Bayless, but it's pretty clear that Bayless is more of a Ben Gordon type than a Steve Nash type. The Blazers can afford to wait a year or two on (Nick) Calathes. They are loaded with prospects right now and will look to add a veteran point guard to the roster this year.

Calathes seems like a KP pick: Big (6'5") PG from a decent program who going to play in Greece for a year--so he's effectively stashing himself. I'm of the mindset, though, that starting PG is going to be the biggest barometer of how this team goes over the next few years--Roy and LMA are already consistently good, and Oden can be there with work and opportunity, IMO. But from the chemistry/learning the team perspective, I'd really like to have our "PGs of the future" (whether Kopo, Calathes, Sergio, Bayless, whoever) HERE and working out with the team everyday, even if they're the 14th man, to get the culture and repetition (and to let Nate get used to them). In that vein, not sure I'd like a Calathes pick.

 

[PapaG]

Sean (Co Springs): What makes Rubio so good?
SportsNation David Thorpe: Mind and vision like Larry Bird's

Size of a young Steve Blake, outside shot of a young Sergio Rodriguez.

I don't get the hype, at least not right away as an elite NBA player.

 

[Nikolokolus]

If this was Skip Bayless or even Simmons, I might just laugh at this. But Thorpe generally knows what he's talking about.

Added just for fun.

I found this interesting, because I'm coming more and more around on Noah. My position always was "I'd like him on the team if his mere appearance didn't want me to punch him". But I think that there's definitely a place (especially for us) for a semi-talented-and-pretty-athletic big with a huge motor. And he's working with Thorpe (who loves him), so he's got a good shot to make something of that "upside" and "potential". Buying low, perhaps?

Not much of a surprise, but since it involved a PTB...

And from Hollinger:

His whole story is pretty interesting to me, but especially the parts I bolded. I really think that we had the tools LAST YEAR to have around the same stats, but didn't make use of it for whatever reason. I've talked before about the hierarchy (as I see it) of Shot Efficiency: FTs, dunks, open 3's, mid-range twos, then "Outlaw specials". (I kid, I kid...sorta). I think we're seeing that teams who take a vast majority of their shots from either inside 6 feet or outside 24 feet (and do it well) are the ones who are still playing. I'm not saying that there isn't room for someone with a good midrange game, but that option is well below dunks, layups, open 3's on the list. We have powerful inside players (if not fully developed yet, but even Przy can run a P&R if people get him the ball), we have amazing shooters (IIRC 5 or 6 who shoot 37% or better) and our coach is committed to "waiting for good shots". But here's what happened to us: During the season our FT/FG ratio was .305, just below the league average. In the playoffs (where generally it goes up by a pretty significant margin-- see the rest of the Hollinger article) our playoff FT/FG ratio was .264. IMO, even if we just keep the players we have, an insistence on losing the 15-23 foot shot in favor of either getting the ball inside more (for higher% shots or FTs) or kicking it around to an open 3pt shooter (higher eFG%) is much better for us. If we can get either a penetrator for drive-and-kicks or a gifted P&R PG, even better.

Chad Ford's Mock Draft:

Calathes seems like a KP pick: Big (6'5") PG from a decent program who going to play in Greece for a year--so he's effectively stashing himself. I'm of the mindset, though, that starting PG is going to be the biggest barometer of how this team goes over the next few years--Roy and LMA are already consistently good, and Oden can be there with work and opportunity, IMO. But from the chemistry/learning the team perspective, I'd really like to have our "PGs of the future" (whether Kopo, Calathes, Sergio, Bayless, whoever) HERE and working out with the team everyday, even if they're the 14th man, to get the culture and repetition (and to let Nate get used to them). In that vein, not sure I'd like a Calathes pick.

Chad Ford is about three steps slow lately. Calathes signed a deal to play in Greece for three years about two days ago.

 

[BrianFromWA]

That's why I said he effectively stashed himself, but at the same time, the two places I read about the story both had that he has escape clauses every year. (Much like Childress's contract)

 

[Nikolokolus]

That's why I said he effectively stashed himself, but at the same time, the two places I read about the story both had that he has escape clauses every year. (Much like Childress's contract)

But you can't draft somebody who's not in the draft. Of course he might decide to declare for the draft in the future, but for this year he's strictly off the table.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I have to reread that, but I don't think he pulled himself from the draft. I'll go check. IIRC he still is eligible for the draft, though he has signed a foreign contract.

 

[Ed O]

But you can't draft somebody who's not in the draft. Of course he might decide to declare for the draft in the future, but for this year he's strictly off the table.

He declared himself eligible for the NBA draft on March 30. Merely signing a deal with an international team doesn't impact that.

Has he withdrawn from the draft? And do you have a link?

This indicates it might just be a one-year deal and that he remains draft eligible.

Ed O.

 

[BrianFromWA]

This is the part I was talking about.

An independent source confirmed the report to ESPN.com and said Calathes and his family decided to go the Greek route instead of waiting to see if he would be drafted by the NBA on June 25. According to the source, Calathes' workout with Dallas, which picks No. 22 in the first round, went well enough that the Mavericks would consider Calathes as a possible backup to Jason Kidd at the point.

According to the source, Calathes' contract with the Greek team Panathinaikos requires him to withdraw from the NBA draft before the June 15 deadline. The source said Calathes' agent Dan Fegan may try to keep his client in the draft to see where he is selected.

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncb/news/story?id=4201710

I hadn't heard it was a contractual requirement. If Fegan can't get that taken out then you're right and he has to remove himself by June 15, since he declared March 30. But he's in as of today.

 

[Boob-No-More]

But you can't draft somebody who's not in the draft. Of course he might decide to declare for the draft in the future, but for this year he's strictly off the table.

Does signing a contract with a team in Europe (or elswhere) automatically make a player inelligible for the NBA draft? It seems like most euros drafted by NBA teams are already under contract elsewhere. Rudy was still under contract when we drafted him. Rubio is still under contract, but with a buy out clause. Sometimes you have to wait a year, or two (or longer - Sabonis), but I didn't think signing a contract in Europe automatically makes a player inelligible for the NBA draft. I'm not big on Calathes, but couldn't the Blazers draft him, let him play a year in Greece, and then bring him over. Isn't that essentially what we did with Rudy?

BNM

 

[Nikolokolus]

He declared himself eligible for the NBA draft on March 30. Merely signing a deal with an international team doesn't impact that.

Has he withdrawn from the draft? And do you have a link?

This indicates it might just be a one-year deal and that he remains draft eligible.

Ed O.

Maybe I'm mistaken, I thought he'd withdrawn from the draft to sign that contract with whatever Greek team it is he'll be playing for.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I think what Calathes did was a genius move.

1. He got PAID - and paid as well as a mid-first rounder, which was probably higher than he would've been picked.
2. He is now very likely to get drafted (and yes, he is of course draft-eligible, just like any player already playing on a foreign team who is of the right age, like Sergio Llull) by a good team with one of their lower first rounders precisely because they can stash him for a while.

He was in a funny situation (otherwise I could see a bunch of people following his example). His skill set is probably better suited to the Euro game (Greeks love big PGs), and he's got joint Greek citizenship (I believe) which makes him extra-valuable to Greek teams, who have a limit on the non-Greeks they can sign/play. I can totally see Pritchard targeting him near the bottom of the first, either with the 24 or one of the many picks down there that are up for sale. He's Petteri v.2.

It's funny: Aaron Brooks convinced everyone that small, nippy shoot-first PGs were the current wave. But the Magic (who are doing nicely with the man traded to make room for Brooks) that 6'10" multi-talented shooters are the wave of the future... If Calathes can shoot threes, he's in luck because teams copying Orlando will have use for mismatches that can shoot.