Ranking the Top Point Guards (ESPN)

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LameR

LameR

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Didn't see this anywhere else, and since a lot of discussion has been about PGs, I thought it was pretty relevant.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/columns/story?columnist=ford_chad&page=PreDraftTour-090601

Surprised to see Lawson that low, a little bummed that Flynn is probably out of our range, and who does this sound like?

Maynor is the sleeper of the group. Every GM claims they like him, but don't love him. That might be because Maynor is one of those players who does just about everything well, but doesn't have one particular area in his game that stands out.
Click to expand...
 
I wonder where Bayless would come in on that list? I figure since he was rated so high last year in a much better PG class that he would be at, or near the top. Since that is the case and he is on the team already I wonder why we need to keep talking about drafting yet another PG?
 
Mediocre Man said:
I wonder where Bayless would come in on that list? I figure since he was rated so high last year in a much better PG class that he would be at, or near the top. Since that is the case and he is on the team already I wonder why we need to keep talking about drafting yet another PG?
Click to expand...

What if.. just what if.. Bayless has more trade value than those PG's outside of Rubio... And Bayless gets included in a deal that brings back a nice PG or a nice SF. Then can we talk about players in the draft?
 
Mediocre Man said:
I wonder where Bayless would come in on that list? I figure since he was rated so high last year in a much better PG class that he would be at, or near the top. Since that is the case and he is on the team already I wonder why we need to keep talking about drafting yet another PG?
Click to expand...

Moot point, the ranking is for those guys who haven't played in the NBA. Bayless has played and had some opportunities to distinguish himself and earn solid playing time and apart from a few glimpses, he did nothing to earn my confidence (shades of Sergio his rookie year).

Perhaps if Bayless was in this year's draft class, he might be ranked high, but as it stands, I just don't see him as a viable PG alternative - at least for a few years and I don't know that we, as fans, or Bayless himself have the patience to wait for him to [hopefully] develop into the player some of us think he can be.

If he had a solid offensive game, I'd say he could be a fireplug off the bench who also contributes in other ways but again, with some exceptions, he offensive game this year seemed to be lacking.

Perhaps I don't have the vision, or patience, some of you have and you may come back next year (or later) and rag me for my current view but only time will tell. I'm glad I'm not the GM trying to make the decision (and you probably are too!).

Gramps...
 
A Chris Montor associated group also has rankings of the top point guards:

RANK NAME HT WT CLASS/AGE SCHOOL/COUNTRY
1 Ricky Rubio 6-4 180 18 Spain
2 Tyreke Evans 6-6 220 FR Memphis
3 Stephen Curry 6-3 185 JR Davidson
4 Jrue Holiday 6-4 200 FR UCLA
5 Brandon Jennings 6-2 165 19 Italy
6 Jonny Flynn 6-0 175 SO Syracuse
7 Jeff Teague 6-2 180 SO Wake Forest
8 Ty Lawson 5-11 195 JR North Carolina
9 Eric Maynor 6-3 175 SR VA Commonwealth
10 Patrick Mills 5-11 175 SO St. Mary's (CA)

http://collegebasketballnews.scout.com/2/868443.html

Looking at the 2008 rankings by this group, they had Batum as the best SF. I suspect that this group does its rankings independently rather than engage in "the group thinking" that probably is taking place elsewhere.
 
GrandpaBlaze said:
Moot point, the ranking is for those guys who haven't played in the NBA. Bayless has played and had some opportunities to distinguish himself and earn solid playing time and apart from a few glimpses, he did nothing to earn my confidence (shades of Sergio his rookie year).

Perhaps if Bayless was in this year's draft class, he might be ranked high, but as it stands, I just don't see him as a viable PG alternative - at least for a few years and I don't know that we, as fans, or Bayless himself have the patience to wait for him to [hopefully] develop into the player some of us think he can be.

If he had a solid offensive game, I'd say he could be a fireplug off the bench who also contributes in other ways but again, with some exceptions, he offensive game this year seemed to be lacking.

Perhaps I don't have the vision, or patience, some of you have and you may come back next year (or later) and rag me for my current view but only time will tell. I'm glad I'm not the GM trying to make the decision (and you probably are too!).

Gramps...
Click to expand...



So why would any of the guys in the current draft class be any different?

Bayless has shown with consistant PT that he can do this.

In 20 mpg
9.5 ppg
3.0 apg
2.0 rpg
4.2 FTA pg

This as a rookie on a slow assed paced team. I am pretty sure that if any of the PG's in the incoming class did that for Portland we would be declaring them the second coming of God almighty himself.


I will also bring up the Nate factor for uncle Ty and others. Sergio and Bayless have both had a really hard time under Nate and his style of play. The PG I think you and a lot of people want could not play under Nate as effectively as we would all like because Nate doesn;t like mistakes and wants the PG to play under control at the cost of getting easy baskets. For example, I doube Chris Paul would be as flashy in Portland because that's not the style Nate wants.


I'm not bashing Nate for this. It's his style and so be it, but the PG that does well here will be a lot like Steve Blake. Doesn't do anything to really help you win or lose.



Chris Paul by the way played almost exactly double what Bayless averaged during the stretch that Blake was hurt. A simple comparison shows that Bayless might not be as bad as you think.

PPG:
C. Paul 22.8
Bayless 19.0

APG:
C. Paul 11.0
Bayless 6.0

RPG:
C. Paul 5.5
Bayless 4.0

FTA pg:
C. Paul 6.7
Bayless 8.4

Keep in mind this is the premier PG in the NBA I am comparing Bayless, a rookie and 3rd or 4th option, with.
 
Yeah I went back and looked at both Sergio and Jerryd's splits for the season and that stretch of fifteen games when Blake went out with his bum shoulder really jumped out. I don't think either separated themselves from the other, but both were more efficient with their shot as the minutes went up, although Sergio seemed to become more turnover prone and his assist rate took a dip, Jerryd on the other hand had a better assist rate as time wore on (although he was still pretty turnover prone).

Call me crazy, but I think that if you give Jerryd a clearly defined role next year with a steady diet of fifteen to eighteen minutes per game (assuming he earns them) I have the feeling he'll be able to do some good things ... those "good things" might not include really running the offense like a true point guard, but I'll bet he's able be much more efficient than this season's total averages and probably give you a good 4 FTAs per game and some scoring pop off the bench.

I'll take a second year Jerryd without rookie-itis over almost all of the point guards in this draft (except perhaps Rubio).
 
Brandon Jennings at 7!? Sign me up! (And Ford doesn't even mention him in the first paragraph as one of the PGs that missed the combine. Out of sight, out of mind?)
 
Rastapopoulos said:
Brandon Jennings at 7!? Sign me up! (And Ford doesn't even mention him in the first paragraph as one of the PGs that missed the combine. Out of sight, out of mind?)
Click to expand...

You realize Jennings doesn't have a jump shot right?
 
Nikolokolus said:
You realize Jennings doesn't have a jump shot right?
Click to expand...

So you're saying you wouldn't take him if he fell out of the lottery?

[video=youtube;qeeoFwv-Ctg]"]

You realize that Jerryd Bayless doesn't have a jump shot, right? (Not to mention Rajon Rondo.)
 
Anyone have a thought they'd like to share about whether or not the better Euro teams are good choices for players like Jennings b/c they preach fundamentals? Or did he waste a year?
 
Rastapopoulos said:
So you're saying you wouldn't take him if he fell out of the lottery?



You realize that Jerryd Bayless doesn't have a jump shot, right? (Not to mention Rajon Rondo.)
Click to expand...




Jerry Bayless shot 40.7% from 3pt in college.

Brandon Jennings shot 26.8% from 3pt in Europe

I think the FIBA line is actually a tad shorter than the college line as well.


Brandon Roy made several references this past summer about how Jerryd Bayless would shoot, and everything would go in. Then came the mind games, and his confidence as well as his shot started to suffer.

Summer league Jerryd Bayless shot 43% by the way
 
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Mediocre Man said:
Bayless has shown with consistant PT that he can do this.

In 20 mpg
9.5 ppg
3.0 apg
2.0 rpg
4.2 FTA pg
Click to expand...

Well, if we want to get technical, your numbers are off.

Bayless in games where he played 15-19 minutes:
Record: 4-4
PPG: 4.25
APG: 1.0
RPG: 1.0
TO: 1.5
STL: .625

In games where he played 20 minutes or more:
Record: 6-4
PPG: 11.0
APG: 3.5
RPG: 2.1
TO: 1.4
STL: .5

The big difference between wins and losses (in the 20+ minute comparo) is in the PG categories (Win / Loss):
APG: 4.8 / 1.5
TO: .8 / 2.25

In games where Bayless got 20+ minutes, he averaged the same points as Blake, fewer assists, fewer rebounds, slightly better on TO (1.4 to 1.6) and fewer steals (.5 to 1.0).

What about Sergio (as long as we're using stats, let's compare!):
Sergio - games 15-19 minutes:
Record: 20-4
PPG: 5.5
APG: 3.8
RPG: 1.8
TO: 1.9
STL: 1.0

Sergio - 20+ minutes
Record: 9-9
PPG: 7.4
APG: 5.9
RPG: 2.8
TO: 2.1
Stl: .9

Interesting that in the 20+ wins vs losses for Sergio his assists jump (7.1 vs. 4.8) as do his turnovers (3.0 vs. 1.1).

So, let's compare Sergio to Bayless (strictly by the numbers):

In 15-19 minutes:
Record: Sergio
PPG: Sergio
APG: Sergio (nearly 4x)
RPG: Sergio
TO: Sergio
Stl: Sergio

In games of 20 minutes or more:
Record: Bayless (nearly 1/2 the sample size - 10 vs. 18 games)
PPG: Bayless
APG: Sergio
RPG: Sergio
TO: Sergio
Stl: Sergio

Summary??????

Maybe Sergio is ideal as a backup PG? As has been alluded to here, Nate's style of play seems to hamper Sergio. In his 20+ minute games, when the Blazers won Sergio was more "free" with the ball garnering both more assists and more turnovers.

On the other hand, Bayless is a rookie with, we believe, more upside.

Overall, I'd just as soon see Sergio gone and I still have no attachment to Bayless. I wouldn't mind seeing another PG drafted.

Gramps...
 
GrandpaBlaze said:
Well, if we want to get technical, your numbers are off.

Bayless in games where he played 15-19 minutes:
Record: 4-4
PPG: 4.25
APG: 1.0
RPG: 1.0
TO: 1.5
STL: .625

In games where he played 20 minutes or more:
Record: 6-4
PPG: 11.0
APG: 3.5
RPG: 2.1
TO: 1.4
STL: .5

The big difference between wins and losses (in the 20+ minute comparo) is in the PG categories (Win / Loss):
APG: 4.8 / 1.5
TO: .8 / 2.25

In games where Bayless got 20+ minutes, he averaged the same points as Blake, fewer assists, fewer rebounds, slightly better on TO (1.4 to 1.6) and fewer steals (.5 to 1.0).

What about Sergio (as long as we're using stats, let's compare!):
Sergio - games 15-19 minutes:
Record: 20-4
PPG: 5.5
APG: 3.8
RPG: 1.8
TO: 1.9
STL: 1.0

Sergio - 20+ minutes
Record: 9-9
PPG: 7.4
APG: 5.9
RPG: 2.8
TO: 2.1
Stl: .9

Interesting that in the 20+ wins vs losses for Sergio his assists jump (7.1 vs. 4.8) as do his turnovers (3.0 vs. 1.1).

So, let's compare Sergio to Bayless (strictly by the numbers):

In 15-19 minutes:
Record: Sergio
PPG: Sergio
APG: Sergio (nearly 4x)
RPG: Sergio
TO: Sergio
Stl: Sergio

In games of 20 minutes or more:
Record: Bayless (nearly 1/2 the sample size - 10 vs. 18 games)
PPG: Bayless
APG: Sergio
RPG: Sergio
TO: Sergio
Stl: Sergio

Summary??????

Maybe Sergio is ideal as a backup PG? As has been alluded to here, Nate's style of play seems to hamper Sergio. In his 20+ minute games, when the Blazers won Sergio was more "free" with the ball garnering both more assists and more turnovers.

On the other hand, Bayless is a rookie with, we believe, more upside.

Overall, I'd just as soon see Sergio gone and I still have no attachment to Bayless. I wouldn't mind seeing another PG drafted.

Gramps...
Click to expand...


Those numbers are fun Gramps. I was simply using the block of games Blake was injured with his shoulder. The games where Bayless knew he was going to play consistant minutes.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
So you're saying you wouldn't take him if he fell out of the lottery?



You realize that Jerryd Bayless doesn't have a jump shot, right? (Not to mention Rajon Rondo.)
Click to expand...


That's a nice video...

I have one too :devilwink:

[video=youtube;fcqe9UXkc8o]
 
Bwatcher said:
A Chris Montor associated group also has rankings of the top point guards:

RANK NAME HT WT CLASS/AGE SCHOOL/COUNTRY
1 Ricky Rubio 6-4 180 18 Spain
2 Tyreke Evans 6-6 220 FR Memphis
3 Stephen Curry 6-3 185 JR Davidson
4 Jrue Holiday 6-4 200 FR UCLA
5 Brandon Jennings 6-2 165 19 Italy
6 Jonny Flynn 6-0 175 SO Syracuse
7 Jeff Teague 6-2 180 SO Wake Forest
8 Ty Lawson 5-11 195 JR North Carolina
9 Eric Maynor 6-3 175 SR VA Commonwealth
10 Patrick Mills 5-11 175 SO St. Mary's (CA)
http://collegebasketballnews.scout.com/2/868443.html

Looking at the 2008 rankings by this group, they had Batum as the best SF. I suspect that this group does its rankings independently rather than engage in "the group thinking" that probably is taking place elsewhere.
Click to expand...

The next Aaron Brooks. He'll be a steal offensively low in the draft. He can get by anybody.
 
Natebishop3 said:
That's a nice video...

I have one too :devilwink:

Click to expand...




The best part about that, regardless of who someone might me arguing for, is that you could literally put the face of one on the others body and have the exact same video.
 
BrianFromWA said:
Anyone have a thought they'd like to share about whether or not the better Euro teams are good choices for players like Jennings b/c they preach fundamentals? Or did he waste a year?
Click to expand...

I'm not an expert on Euro-ball by any means, but based on what I have read, it was a wasted year.

He was supposedly signed as a publicity stunt. Once he established that he wasn't a savant (like Rubio), the coaches just ignored him. He was the 12th man during the regular season, and was left off the play-off roster.

The coaches had no incentive to spend any time with him, since they knew he wasn't going to stick around long-term in any event. If anything, his coaches and team-mates were resentful of the notion that they were just being used to develop him for the NBA.
 
Rastapopoulos said:
So you're saying you wouldn't take him if he fell out of the lottery?



You realize that Jerryd Bayless doesn't have a jump shot, right? (Not to mention Rajon Rondo.)
Click to expand...


If he fell out of the lottery? Sure I'd take a flier on him ... but that isn't going to happen.

As for Jerryd, I'm not comparing Jennings' non-NBA percentages to Jerryd's NBA rookie stats, I'm talking about Jerryd the prospect coming out of UofA compared to Jennings the prospect. I have no idea what happened to Jerryd during his first year in the league but he was a very solid shooter pre-NBA, no ifs ands or buts.
 
Nikolokolus said:
If he fell out of the lottery? Sure I'd take a flier on him ... but that isn't going to happen.

As for Jerryd, I'm not comparing Jennings' non-NBA percentages to Jerryd's NBA rookie stats, I'm talking about Jerryd the prospect coming out of UofA compared to Jennings the prospect. I have no idea what happened to Jerryd during his first year in the league but he was a very solid shooter pre-NBA, no ifs ands or buts.
Click to expand...

I think trying to play a different role than what he was used to happened to Jerryd Bayless. Bayless is a scorer, and should be used so accordingly. Not try to be turned into something he is not because the coach can't adapt to his talent. Look at pat Riley. he went from Showtime to Slowtime based on his talent. You can't always run the same sets for every team. What worked for one year in Seattle might not be the best thing for this team right now. 54 wins was awesome, but the team as a whole might have been better off getting some more easy baskets. Regardless of our 54 wins, we still got handled in the 1st round after getting HCA.
 
cloudydays said:
can somebody post the list? I can't see it.
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Oh wow. That's so lame. It wasn't insider this morning. This is what I remember...Evans, and a few others could be off. And I really don't remember where Jennings was, just that he was a lot farther down the list than I expected. Lawson as well.

1. Rubio
2. Curry
3. Flynn
4. Holiday
5. Evans(?)
6. Teague
7. Jennings(?)
7. Maynor
8. Lawson
9. Calathes
10. Collison
11. Mills
12.
13. Douglas

I don't know who I'm missing. And I'm only sure on 1-4. The others are ballpark of where they're supposed to be. Dang. That article had some interesting bits on which teams were higher on which players.
 
aaa
CHICAGO -- The first-ever NBA draft combine is a wrap, and the outcome wasn't as bad as many had predicted.

Deleted.
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bbb
7. Brandon Jennings (avg. 6.8)
Jennings' numbers were the most suspect of the group. A number of GMs admitted that they don't know enough about him. And all of them were disappointed that he was skipping the Reebok Eurocamp. They felt like they needed to see him in workouts against other top prospects to get a better feel.

...

Deleted.
Click to expand...
 
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oldmangrouch said:
I'm not an expert on Euro-ball by any means, but based on what I have read, it was a wasted year.
Click to expand...

Really?

He was supposedly signed as a publicity stunt.
Click to expand...

Source? That's a lot of Euros for a "publicity stunt".

Once he established that he wasn't a savant (like Rubio), the coaches just ignored him. He was the 12th man during the regular season, and was left off the play-off roster.

The coaches had no incentive to spend any time with him, since they knew he wasn't going to stick around long-term in any event. If anything, his coaches and team-mates were resentful of the notion that they were just being used to develop him for the NBA.
Click to expand...

I think, if anything, the year in Europe will have done him more good than a year at Arizona. He got a hardass coach who didn't give a shit who he was and sat his ass down unless he played defense and passed the ball. So instead of just doing what he was already good at and getting adoration without working on his weaknesses, he was humbled. Why was Tony Parker so good at 19? Not because he got huge minutes on his (inferior to Jennings') Euro-team, because he didn't. He actually had a lot worse stats in France than in his rookie year in the NBA (I think - somebody can prove me wrong). Euro coaches are seriously old school and do not like young players. Each game is worth a lot more there, and winning is everything.
 
Posting portions of a copyrighted column is fine, but please don't post entire articles, especially from ESPN Insider.

Thanks.

Ed O.
 
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