Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate

[barfo]

I didn't read his article to have anything to do with HI being an outlier.

Maybe you want to read it again.

Don't think I really need to, since the bulk of the article is talking specifically about treating HI as an outlier. But just in case you missed it - even though you quoted it yourself earlier in the thread - here is the relevant portion:

Nate made much ado of Rasmussen's worst poll ever in his analysis. The critique is germane, but not in the statistical sense. It would certainly be, by Nate's own god statistics, an outlier and as such should have been removed from Nate's accuracy model.

The words "worst poll ever" are a link to the HI poll.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Don't think I really need to, since the bulk of the article is talking specifically about treating HI as an outlier. But just in case you missed it - even though you quoted it yourself earlier in the thread - here is the relevant portion:



The words "worst poll ever" are a link to the HI poll.

barfo

It's pretty clear he's saying Silver is making a mountain out of a molehill and is saying that Rasmussen's polls are generally so accurate that Silver's whole analysis is flawed - the entire set of polls being slightly off is the outlier.

 

[barfo]

It's pretty clear he's saying Silver is making a mountain out of a molehill and is saying that Rasmussen's polls are generally so accurate that Silver's whole analysis is flawed - the entire set of polls being slightly off is the outlier.

It's pretty clear your reading comprehension is not up to snuff.

barfo

 

[44Thrilla]

you two are so cute

 

[barfo]

you two are so cute

Are you coming to the wedding? We sure hope you are.

barfo

 

[Denny Crane]

Rasmussen has been incredibly accurate all along. I post his polls because I see them as predictive of how the other polls are going to be down the road. If Rasmussen shows Obama's approval rating at 40 and CNN shows it at 50, it's going to be 40 in CNN's poll given a little bit of time.

Rasmussen crunches the numbers, which seems to be important to you. His methodology is posted on his WWW site. What is Nate Silver's methodology? Do tell!

Rasmussen's biggest failure this time around was in Nevada, not in Hawaii. Otherwise, his 100+ polls to others' <10 polls haven't proven to be inaccurate enough to make a big deal about.