Rating the West

[oldmangrouch]

I found this interesting.

The top 9 teams in the WC:

Stein

Lakers 2nd overall
Spurs 5th
Nugs 6th
Rockets 7th
NO 8th
BLAZERS 9th
Jazz 11th
Mavs 12th
Suns 17th

Hollinger

Lakers 3rd overall
BLAZERS 5th
Rockets 6th
Jazz 7th
Spurs 8th
Nugs 9th
Suns 11th
NO 12th
Mavs 13th

Less than 3 weeks to go in the season, and the these 2 "experts" are still miles apart in ranking the teams!

 

[Minstrel]

Stein is going by "feel," while Hollinger is largely going by point differential. I think point differential is a much better indicator of team ability. I'm quite impressed that Portland has the fifth best point differential in basketball.

 

[Public Defender]

Just because a team is better at running up the score against bad teams, and putting up big numbers when good teams have bad nights, doesn't make them better. The Blazers are one of the 3-4 best teams at home this year. But the team is strictly middle of the pack on the road. 9th best in the league seems about right. I might put them a spot or two higher, but certainly not at 5th, and 2nd in the West.

 

[STOMP]

Just because a team is better at running up the score against bad teams, and putting up big numbers when good teams have bad nights, doesn't make them better. The Blazers are one of the 3-4 best teams at home this year. But the team is strictly middle of the pack on the road. 9th best in the league seems about right. I might put them a spot or two higher, but certainly not at 5th, and 2nd in the West.

point differential also is about not getting blown out when matched against better teams on the road or when things aren't going the team's way. No statistical measure is a perfect predictor/reflection of whats what, but PD seems to hold some water. The contenders seem to be at the top of the list and the Clippers are usually at the bottom. It doesn't factor in injuries which obviously can dramatically effect a team's performance so the context of how the season went should be considered.

STOMP

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Looking at those two rankings and watching a fair amount of basketball . . . I'll say Stein's is more accurate.

I can't imagine the Blazers would be favored in a 7 game series against the Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets or NO. Also the fact that Hollinger has the Suns above the NO and in the playoffs shows some flaws in his system.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Looking at those two rankings and watching a fair amount of basketball . . . I'll say Stein's is more accurate.

I can't imagine the Blazers would be favored in a 7 game series against the Spurs, Nuggets, Rockets or NO. Also the fact that Hollinger has the Suns above the NO and in the playoffs shows some flaws in his system.

IIRC, Hollinger's system has a "what have you done for me lately" bias. EG: over the course of the entire season, the Mavs and Hornets have been better than the Suns - but right now, the Suns are playing better.

Despite their recently improved play, could the Suns really beat the Mavs or Hornets in a 7 games series? Not an impossiblity...but I would still consider them underdogs.

OTOH, ranking the Suns 17th overall, as Stein does? That seems silly also. In the Least, Suns are a play-off team.

 

[TripTango]

Dude. Stein's "rankings" are basically just a list of the West coast standings by record! Brilliant work, man. Really insightful.

Snarkiness aside, I think Stein's list is probably a bit more accurate in terms of overall team strength, but I like having Hollinger's as well -- it favors more recent stats and provides some interesting contrast. (As it is meant to, I might add. How boring would it be if both lists were always identical?)

 

[KingSpeed]

Just because a team is better at running up the score against bad teams,

But we're running up the score against GOOD teams. We've led by 29 or more against Utah, Phoenix, San Antonio, and the Lakers over the last month. We're not just slipping past these teams. We're destroying them. I think that counts for something.

 

[Drttimmy]

But we're running up the score against GOOD teams. We've led by 29 or more against Utah, Phoenix, San Antonio, and the Lakers over the last month. We're not just slipping past these teams. We're destroying them. I think that counts for something.

Agreed. With the exception of Phoenix, I dont think we were catching these teams on off nights either. Utah played pretty well last night. They eventually found their energy and did give us problems at various times. We just made timely runs when we had to.

The team defense improving remarkably. The return of the Oden/Pryzbilla juggernaut giving us a matchup advantage in the interior almost every night. Aldridge emerging and currently playing like the best power forward in the West. Less dependence on Roy isolations. Batum emerging as an offensive threat when left undefended. The increased fastbreak points. There are reasons we are winning games these games lopsidedly, and it largely has to do with us.

 

[rocketeer]

IIRC, Hollinger's system has a "what have you done for me lately" bias. EG: over the course of the entire season, the Mavs and Hornets have been better than the Suns - but right now, the Suns are playing better.

Despite their recently improved play, could the Suns really beat the Mavs or Hornets in a 7 games series? Not an impossiblity...but I would still consider them underdogs.

OTOH, ranking the Suns 17th overall, as Stein does? That seems silly also. In the Least, Suns are a play-off team.

hollinger's system is largely based on point differential, but also factors in strength of schedule(though at this point there really isn't a huge difference there) as well as the point differential and strength of schedule of the most recent 25% of the schedule.

i would say it's based on the results from the entire year but slanted towards their recent play.