They will
both make significant improvement this season, for different reasons. For anyone who says they have peaked, or nearly peaked, offensively, I disagree.
While obviously not his rookie year, last season was the first time C.J. played over 1000 minutes in the NBA. He missed over half his rookie year, including most of training camp and all of the preseason. In the 38 games he played in, he only averaged 12.5 MPG. In his second season, he averaged 15.7 MPG in 62 games. Last year he played 2780 minutes (34.8 MPG) in 80 games, almost triple his previous career high for minutes played.
I bring this up for a reason. Most players see their per minute production and efficiency go down, often substantially, with a dramatic increase in playing time - especially when you move from a bench role into the starting line up, when you now have to share the ball with other quality teammates and you are guarding and being guarded by the other teams' best players.
C.J. has been exactly the opposite. With his dramatic increase in playing time, his production has skyrocketed and his efficiency improved. His PER has jumped from 9.0 to 13.1 to 17.7. That's a nice trend and one that still has room for improvement. All, and I mean ALL, of his shooting percentages have gone up every year. Here they are:
2013-14: .416 FG%, .375 3FG%, .676 FT%, .521 TS%, .500 eFG%
2014-15: .436 FG%, .396 3FG%, .699 FT%, .534 TS%, .511, eFG%
2015-16: .448 FG%, .416 3FG%, .827 FT%, .544 TS%, .517 eFG%
All that while moving from the bench to starting, and seeing very significant increases in his playing time and USG%. His per 36 scoring and assist numbers are also up significantly:
2013-14: 15.2 pts/36, 2.0 ast/36
2014-15: 15.7 pts/36, 2.4 ast/36
2015-16: 21.6 pts/36, 4.4 ast/36
This is also mirrored in his per 100 possession and AST% increases, all while more than doubling his MPG and seeing a significant jump in his USG%:
2013-14: 21.4pts/100 ppossessions, 2.9 ast/100 possessions
2014-15: 22.2 pts/100 possessions, 3.4 ast/100 possessions
2015-16: 30.0 pts/100 possessions, 6.1 ast/100 possessions
2013-14: 8.7 AST%, 20.9 USG%
2014-15: 10.3 AST%, 20.5 USG%
2015-16: 21.6 AST%, 27.1 USG%
He is using far more possessions and using them far more efficiently and doing it against tougher competition.
That's very rare, for any player at any age, but given that he's still young and gaining experience, it bodes well for a couple more years of significant improvement before he enters his prime. With only one year as a starter, it would be very unusual for him to have reached his peak in such a rapid manner.
With Aldridge gone, Dame officially became our number 1 option on offense last season. His MPG have remained constant at 35.7 - 35.8 over the last three seasons, but his FGA/G and USG% were both at career high levels after the Aldridge defection. Like C.J. his PER has increased every year, from 16.4 to 18.6 to 20.7 to 22.2, and that's encouraging. His per 36 minute and per 100 possession numbers for scoring and assists were also at new career highs. Other than his AST%, which was also at a career high, his efficiency has remained relatively unchanged his four years in the league. His TS% and eFG% numbers have been remarkably consistent. Being the number 1 option on offense means more defensive pressure than ever as opposing teams game plan around stopping you and getting the ball out of your hands. The good news, is while his role increased even more, his overall production also increased without his efficiency suffering. He also had a significant jump in his AST% rate from 29.0 to 33.6. So, he wasn't just scoring more, he was also creating more scoring opportunities for his teammates.
So, where will Lillard's improvement come from - greater efficiency. Specifically, better shooting percentages, and it really doesn't have much to do with him. Although Dame has shown he's a tirelessly hard worker, his improvement in shooting percentages will come from more open, catch and shoot opportunities. Some will say that's just better shot selection, but it's more than that. It's all about the make up of the roster.
Blaz06Draft did a great jump summarizing
the advantage for catch and shoot opportunities and how the addition of Evan Turner will create more such opportunities. In summary, players shoot significantly higher percentages when they have an open shot with their feet set and shoulders square to the basket. No mystery in that. Blaz06Draft, showed that in terms of assist points created per minute from the forward position Evan Turner ranks with Draymod Green and LeBron as the best in the game. So, just having Turner in the starting line up should improve Dame's shooting percentages, and therefore, his efficiency.
But there's more to it than that. With both Turner and C.J. on the team, it will allow Dame to play off the ball more than at any time during his career. This is the first time in his career that Dame has TWO other teammates that can run the offense. Which means at least one of them will be on the floor with Dame at almost all times - a luxury he has never had in his NBA career. Remember how bad our bench was Dame's first two years? It often looked like he was playing 1-5 with 4 guys who couldn't score in double digits if left unguarded in an empty gym. Near the end of his rookie year, Eric Maynor made a brief appearance on the Blazers roster, and Dame's shooting percentages shot way up as he was allowed to play off the ball more. But, that only last briefly.
By his second year, the rotation was set with Nic at SF, as the secondary ballhandler/distributor and Wes, a decidedly poor ballhandler/distributor at the SG position. Because of a lack of ball handlers at the top of our rotation it left very little opportunity for Dame to play off the ball. Either one of Dame or Nic had to be on the floor at all times, which meant that whenever Nic rested Dame was out there by himself again with the bench unit. Last year, we replaced Wes' lack of ballhanding with C.J., but lost Nic as a ball handler. So, once again, with only one other decent ball handler at the top of our rotation, teams could key on shutting down Dame when C.J. came out (and vice versa).
Enter Evan Turner. He can handle the ball and create and distribute every bit as well as Nic, and in some ways better. Combine Turner at the 3 and C.J., at the 2 and for the first time in his career, Dame has the luxury of playing off the ball at any and all times. And, it's not just that Turner and C.J, can dribble, pass and run an offense, it's the way they do it that will create higher percentage looks for Dame. Both C.J. and Turner can penetrate and collapse a defense. That was never Nic's strong point. The fact that he rarely attacked the paint was one of the biggest criticisms of his game from many posters in this forum. Rather than attack the rim, Nic would glide around the perimeter and use his length to pass over the defense. We've all seen the way C.J. uses his exceptional handles to and penetrate and collapse the defense. Turner is the same way. Like C.J., he has a strong midrange game, but I can't remember the last time we had a player of his size that could penetrate and finish in the paint like Turner.
So, with both C.J. and Turner able to penetrate and collapse the defense, it will create many open catch and shoot opportunities for Dame. The wide open 3-point catch and shoot has become the deadliest weapon in basketball. Golden State has perfected it. Everyone talks about Steph Curry's huge improvement the last two seasons and how a player, even after the age of 25 can make the leap from not even being an all star to being a two time MVP. Yes, Curry and Thompson are both great shooters, but they both made huge jumps once GSW added Livingston and Draymond Green emerged as player that could penetrate, collapse defenses and kick out to the wide open 3-point shooters. Yes, Curry can create his own shot, but so can Dame. That's not the point. Both are even more deadly when someone else does the work of collapsing the defense for them and then delivers the ball for a wide open, feet set, shoulders squared, catch and shoot 3-pointer. With the addition of Turner and the emergence of C.J., Dame will now have that same luxury on a much more regular basis, and that's where his improved efficiency will come from.
BNM
