Remaining schedule strongly suggests Portland will miss the playoffs

Welcome to our community

Be a part of something great, join today!

Register Log in
We're not really a playoff team, so I'm not upset. And I'd like to move up as far in the draft as possible. We're desperate for a center or PG or shooter and the farther up we move the better our chances of filling a need.
 
I can live with missing the playoffs in this clusterfuck of a lockout shortened season ... and especially knowing what kind of talent there is to chose from in this draft. It's sort of like pathfinding in the wilderness; sometimes you walk into a box-canyon and the only way out is back before you can make any progress.
 
Tom Ziller has no idea what he is talking about. First, he has us playing 33 (12+7+2+12) games when in fact we only have 32 left. Of those 33 games he has 12 games that list us as "AAAHH," but out of our 32 remaining games only 14 of them are against above .500 teams. 14 is the lowest for any team in the Top 8 in the west. The Thunder, for example, face 20 teams with above .500 records, the most of any team in the NBA. I'm not saying the Blazers are going to go 25-7 in the second half of the season, but they will make the playoffs.

http://espn.go.com/nba/playoffs/matchups
 
our april is very easy... get through march with an above 500 record.... and we at worst get 8th seed
 
Natebishop3 said:
I forgot your favorite move.... fire Nate. No point keeping him around when we're tanking. Bring back KP to coach the tankfest :grin:
Click to expand...

Nate makes no sense for this team.


I also don't want to use the word tank. Portland has a very good player in Aldridge, and they need to figure out the system they want to play with him playing at an all star level. Find out who on the roster can best play with him, and get rid of everyone else. They need to see if Nolan Smith can be a player, even a back up in the league. They need to see if Elliott Williams can be a real starting caliber 2 guard, or is he just a chucker. Will we lose more games by playing them more minutes? Probably. Will it benefit us in the long run? absolutely
 
You mean - gasp - develop a strategic plan to improve the team going forward, design a system that maximizes the skills of our best player, surround him with complemenary players who fit that system, hire a coach who can coach that system, and evaluate our current players in game situations to determine their value to the team? Are you on crack?
 
Last edited:
Dallas definitely has the toughest remaining schedule. They have 14/18 remaining home/away games and 19 games against +.500 teams.

The good news for the Blazers is of the three teams behind them in the standings, two have tougher schedules and the third a comparable schedule.

Denver's schedule, with 16/15 home/away games and 15 against +.500 teams is pretty comparable to Portland's (15/17 home/away games, 14 against +.500 teams).

After Dallas, Minnesota (13/19 home/away, 18 +.500) and Utah (15/19. 19 +.500) have the toughest remaining schedules in the West.

Given that the Blazers are .5 games ahead of the Nuggets, 1 game ahead of Minnesota and 2 games ahead of Utah, it looks like the 8 seed will come down to the Blazers and Nuggets. How well Denver plays over the second half will depend on how soon they get their injured players back.

Of the teams ahead of the Blazers, Houston and Memphis have been playing well recently (both 7-3 over the last 10 games). Of the teams behind the Blazers, Denver (3-7 over the last 10) and Utah (2-8 last 10) have both been struggling lately. Denver because of the injuries and Utah because they just aren't that good. Utah is also a horrible road team, even worse than the Blazers. Minnesota is the definition of a 0.500 team. Their overall record is 17-17, they are 10-10 at home, 7-7 on the road and 5-5 over the last 10 games.

To capture the 8th seed, the Blazers need to beat the sub-.500 teams on the road and win at home at a decent clip.

BNM
 
BBert said:
You mean - gasp - develop a strategic plan to improve the team going forward, design a system that maximizes the skills of our best player, surround him with complemenary players who fit that system, hire a coach who can coach that system, and evaluate our current players in game situations to determine their value to the team? Are you on crack?
Click to expand...

According to most I must be. I guess we could just keep status quo and make the playoffs and get shit canned in the first round.
 
Does anyone else wonder why we are so excited to make the fucking 8th seed?
 
Mediocre Man said:
Does anyone else wonder why we are so excited to make the fucking 8th seed?
Click to expand...

because everyone says it is a great draft, and a deep draft, that you get lotto picks in the 20s. So if it is lotto talent in the 20s, I think you get lotto talent AND playoffs, instead of just lotto talent.
 
mediocre man said:
Does anyone else wonder why we are so excited to make the fucking 8th seed?
Click to expand...
I'm not. I'd gladly retool around our two best players even if it means moving assets before the deadline to improve our future assets, at the cost of losing more games this year. I honestly do not care about our record this season. All I care about this season is positioning the team to have a chance to get better in the future. Most importantly, that will require hiring a GM with a clue, letting him develop a strategic plan, and replacing Mr. Sonic with a coach who fits that vision.

As long as Mr. Sonic is our coach and defacto GM, changing players on this team is just moving deck chairs on the Titanic.
 
Last edited:
Herm Edwards: Nice guy, better soundbite ... worse coach.
 
The amount of analysis that goes into sorting the schedule into aahh, uhmm, yeesh, & yeah games is truly mind-boggling. I can definitely see tanking based on the sophistication of this study. Hollinger has the Blazers at the 7th seed and a 76.9% chance of making the playoffs, but this guy's analysis completely overwhelms Hollinger. http://espn.go.com/nba/hollinger/playoffodds

For all of you would-be "tankers", about the best you could realistically hope for is a 12 to 14 pick given where the Blazers sit in the standings right now, with 16 teams having worse records than them. Unless you're hoping for lightning to strike in a bottle so the Blazers move up to the top 3 spots, the 12 through 14 pick is about it. Here's what those picks have given for the past decade:

2011 12-Alec Burks, 13-Markieff Morris, 14-Marcus Morris
2010 12-Xavier Henry, 13-Ed Davis, 14-Patrick Patterson
2009 12-Gerald Henderson, 13-Tyler Hansbrough, 14-Earl Clark
2008 12-Jason Thompson, 13-Brandon Rush, 14-Anthony Randolph
2007 12-Thaddeus Young, 13-Julian Wright, 14-Al Thornton
2006 12-Hilton Armstrong, 13-Thabo Sefolosha, 14-Ronnie Brewer
2005 12-Yaroslav Korolev, 13-Sean May, 14-Rashad McCants
2004 12-Robert Swift, 13-Sebastian Telfair, 14-Kris Humphries
2003 12-Nick Collison, 13-Marcus Banks, 14-Luke Ridnour
2002 12-Melvin Ely, 13-Marcus Haislip, 14-Frederick Jones

There's a few nice players in there, but franchise guys or better than you could get through a FA signing or trade? Not many. Way more busts. Yeah, I know that this draft is deeper than most, but 12-14 is a crap shoot. Excuse me if I'm not thrilled with the idea of passing on a playoff run for the minuscule chance that you're going to net a major player with this bit of GM brilliance.
 
Think of it this way too though. The 12-14 pick is a much better asset to have than the 17-19
 
Mediocre Man said:
Think of it this way too though. The 12-14 pick is a much better asset to have than the 17-19
Click to expand...

You can be the one to explain how that increase in asset value is worth pissing away one of LaMarcus Aldridge's seasons. Or, better yet, enjoy telling Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, or Joel Przybilla how they should be on board with losing so the Blazers can move from 17-19 up to 12-14 in a draft. That should go over well.
 
e_blazer said:
You can be the one to explain how that increase in asset value is worth pissing away one of LaMarcus Aldridge's seasons. Or, better yet, enjoy telling Marcus Camby, Kurt Thomas, or Joel Przybilla how they should be on board with losing so the Blazers can move from 17-19 up to 12-14 in a draft. That should go over well.
Click to expand...



LA's season is getting pissed away anyway. As for the others, in my plan they would all be dealt, so everyone wins in the long run
 
Mediocre Man said:
Think of it this way too though. The 12-14 pick is a much better asset to have than the 17-19
Click to expand...

it is better to have 14 than 17, sure. But try to convince any owner, even one knowing things aren't great that the, say, 14th pick is better than 17th and 2 home games in the playoffs.
 
I agree with e_blazer. Good posts! :cheers:
and would like to add that the Trail Blazers organization makes a nice chunk of $$ from playoff revenue.
 
If the season ended today, the Blazers would have the 17th pick in the draft. If they fall to 9th in the West, they would have the 14th pick. I don't see much incentive to tank to move up three places in a range where most picks have very similar odds of developing into a future starter, and almost no chance of becoming a number 1 option on a championship caliber team

I'd MUCH rather Aldridge gain some post season experience as the number 1 option and Batum as the number 2 option. Remember, last season against Dallas, when Roy was semi-healthy, Nate still ran the offense through him in the 4th quarter. This will be the first postseason where Aldridge truly is the number 1 option. It will also likely be the first post season where Nic is even considered an option at all and will have some plays run for him. The postseason is MUCH different than the regular season, and all players, whether they are superstars or role players, need to learn what it takes to succeed in the playoffs, and the best way to do that is through experience, paying your dues, taking your lumps and using what you learned to be better prepared the next time.

Even if we do manage to somehow acquire another number 1 or 2 option, through draft, trade, free agency, whatever, I still want the guys who are part of this team's future to gain that valuable playoff experience. There is no substitute for that experience and I think it would be foolish to sacrifice that experinece to move up three spots in the middle of the first round.

BNM
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

MIXUM
Man, if we don't trade for Camby we miss the playoffs.
Replies
12
Views
854
Entity
Entity
Rastapopoulos
  • Poll Poll
Poll o' the day: Playoffs or Pick?
2
Replies
35
Views
2K
tykendo
tykendo
Draco
OT: OKC will miss the playoffs
Replies
15
Views
660
KingSpeed
KingSpeed
SlyPokerDog
Will history repeat?
Replies
20
Views
753
julius
julius
Labinot41
Golden State Warriors pick watch
32 33 34
Replies
998
Views
65K
Whyachi
Whyachi

Users who are viewing this thread

Total: 1 (members: 0, guests: 1)
Back
Top