Exclusive RipCityTwo 2022 Big Board: Pick #5

[PtldPlatypus]

All right--this is where it gets interesting. Oddly enough, this is actually the one slot in the lottery where it's impossible for the Blazers to pick, but it's also the first spot where we'll see a wide spread in the picks.

So after the consensus top-4, who do you hope drops to the Blazers?

 

[PtldPlatypus]

It's frustrating laying it out, because I see a lot of guys that feel like good value at pick 10 that somehow feel like a reach at 5, but obviously somebody has to take the slot. Gamble on the unknown that is Shaedon? Go with the presumed high-floor-low-ceiling Murray? The impressive size/strength of Duren? The do-it-all SG in Davis? Hope Griffin can put it all together and stay healthy?

I'm glad I'm not an NBA GM.

 

[PCmor7]

The irony here is that -- unless you believe in Sharpe's potential -- this probably is the shakiest slot in the lottery AND the slot where Portland would benefit more from picking than any other team ... yet they can't pick there without a trade.

Unless they blow it out of the water in workouts, this is waaaaay too high value-wise for Duren and Eason and Agbaji and probably not good value for Davis, Murray or Washington either.

If you're Portland selecting sixth, you hope the team picking here has fallen in love with Griffin or Washington. It's mind-blowing to me that essentially this year's Nas could be taken with the fifth pick, but that's where we are.

 

[Hoopguru]

The irony here is that -- unless you believe in Sharpe's potential -- this probably is the shakiest slot in the lottery AND the slot where Portland would benefit more from picking than any other team ... yet they can't pick there without a trade.

Unless they blow it out of the water in workouts, this is waaaaay too high value-wise for Duren and Eason and Agbaji and probably not good value for Davis, Murray or Washington either.

If you're Portland selecting sixth, you hope the team picking here has fallen in love with Griffin or Washington. It's mind-blowing to me that essentially this year's Nas could be taken with the fifth pick, but that's where we are.

Trade down maybe?

 

[Hoopguru]

If Murray is there at 5 or 6, I would take him. If Eason is there at 12 take him.

 

[Predator]

It’s gotta be Murray or Sharpe.
The rest have no business being picked so high.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

It’s gotta be Murray or Sharpe.
The rest have no business being picked so high.

Lotta mocks have Griffin in the top 5, seen Mathurin up there too.

 

[blazerfan11]

The key word for Griffin is skills.
Imagine CJ McCollum in a 6'6" body.
Griffin can create his shot and hit those shots from all over the place. He's not explosive but you will hear the word "crafty."
Because of his shot creation ability and efficiency , he could end up better on offense than the suggested top 4.
Edit: and he's 18 years old.
Edit2: "Griffin previously dealt with two knee injuries: spraining his left knee in high school and his right knee before the start of this season."
Some supporters of his have said that it's possible for him to return to where he was physically before his knee sprains. (I have no idea about that).
Edit 3: "But an injury history is piling up, as this could be his third straight season in which he misses time. He sat out 2020-21 with an ankle injury, but he still earned spots on the McDonald's All-American and Jordan Brand Classic rosters. He averaged 17.3 points, 8.8 rebounds, 2.4 assists and 1.6 steals in 12 games as a junior (in HS), but his season was cut short by a knee injury."
https://bleacherreport.com/articles...ained-knee-after-suffering-injury-at-practice

 

[Pinwheel1]

Is there really a difference between say #6 and #10? At that point isn't it kind of a crap shoot?
I mean if someone is ok at #10 or $12, are they really a reach at 6?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

As I have said before, I would bet money I don't have that the Blazers will pick Shaedon Sharpe. Who would I pick? Well, let's just say I'm glad I don't have to. I like Johnny Davis a lot, but he's short. I have a nagging feeling that Keegan Murray is a flash in the pan: I have a rule - better take somebody who was WORSE in their last year of college than somebody who was suddenly much better. The former include Karl Malone most notably, the latter include a lot of busts. But fuck it, his draft bio says "low maintenance" and "really hustles" which is catnip for my ears (if that makes sense), so: him.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The Ringer really likes Jeremy Sochan (look at those player comps!), and I am totally on board with taking him with the Pelicans pick if we get it:

 

[PCmor7]

Trade down maybe?

Ideally. I'm just not sure who we'd get as a trade partner. It seems like kind of a very narrow market there, where there's going to be a lot more value in that 9-13 range.

If Sharpe, Murray and Mathurin all are available at 6, I keep going back and forth with what to do. Mostly, I think I'd pick Sharpe because I don't want this to be another buyer's regret like the Jermaine O'Neal or Ray Felton trades. There only are so many guys with Sharpe's potential in each draft. You'd be beating yourself up for years if he pans out and you have to deal with him for the next decade to try to get a higher seed or advance in the playoffs.

If need be, he can be in the mix at the 3, although that decreases his value a little because he won't have the size advantage there like he does at 2.

Murray is plug and play but not sure he ever is all-star level, plus, we'd be giving up height/length at four starting positions and probable off the bench. Mathurin is more an actually 3 than Sharpe and we MIGHT have a need there, but, my feeling kind of would be if you would be willing to draft Mathurin why not just draft Sharpe who has an even higher ceiling.

Either way, we have several other resources to address the gaping hole at the 4 and the need for size and length. Presuming the Pels don't beat the odds and get into the playoffs, there are valuable legit 4s that should be on the board at 11 or even as far as 15 if you can trade down a couple of spots and gain a future second. You've got the Bledsoe contract, the trade exception, the MLE I believe, several potential trade chips ... there are a lot of ways to play it. Try to sign Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Smith ... still think he need a PG in the mold of DSJ or Dunn on the roster if not in the rotation ... I think what we decide to do with Joe Ingles is going to have a big impact on what we do overall.

 

[PCmor7]

BTW, there are A LOT of guys that I think should/would be of interest to the Blazers who still could be on the board when Portland makes its first pick in the second round and even extending further down: Badji, Kamagate, Kokoro, Tshiebwe, Bacot, Dieng, a few others.

Bacot probably has played himself into the first round as long as he tests/works out well because of his tournament, but I don't think all those guys will be off the board. Badji and Kamagate are draft and stash possibilities. Tshiebwe I think could be a Taj Gibson-type player. There are things about Djieng that remind me of Nic Batum; really interesting sleeper.

 

[Hoopguru]

Ideally. I'm just not sure who we'd get as a trade partner. It seems like kind of a very narrow market there, where there's going to be a lot more value in that 9-13 range.

If Sharpe, Murray and Mathurin all are available at 6, I keep going back and forth with what to do. Mostly, I think I'd pick Sharpe because I don't want this to be another buyer's regret like the Jermaine O'Neal or Ray Felton trades. There only are so many guys with Sharpe's potential in each draft. You'd be beating yourself up for years if he pans out and you have to deal with him for the next decade to try to get a higher seed or advance in the playoffs.

If need be, he can be in the mix at the 3, although that decreases his value a little because he won't have the size advantage there like he does at 2.

Murray is plug and play but not sure he ever is all-star level, plus, we'd be giving up height/length at four starting positions and probable off the bench. Mathurin is more an actually 3 than Sharpe and we MIGHT have a need there, but, my feeling kind of would be if you would be willing to draft Mathurin why not just draft Sharpe who has an even higher ceiling.

Either way, we have several other resources to address the gaping hole at the 4 and the need for size and length. Presuming the Pels don't beat the odds and get into the playoffs, there are valuable legit 4s that should be on the board at 11 or even as far as 15 if you can trade down a couple of spots and gain a future second. You've got the Bledsoe contract, the trade exception, the MLE I believe, several potential trade chips ... there are a lot of ways to play it. Try to sign Isaiah Hartenstein and Jalen Smith ... still think he need a PG in the mold of DSJ or Dunn on the roster if not in the rotation ... I think what we decide to do with Joe Ingles is going to have a big impact on what we do overall.

Going to be interesting, heck we may be drafting for someone else and not know it at the time?
Seems everyone/experts that say Sharpe is a top five and he probably is, are the same ones that say Chet is a top 1-3? I believe them as far as drafting goes.

 

[PCmor7]

Is there really a difference between say #6 and #10? At that point isn't it kind of a crap shoot?
I mean if someone is ok at #10 or $12, are they really a reach at 6?

I think that varies from draft to draft, but, this year, yeah, I think there's a gap.

To me, it starts with having five guys that are a cut above that next group. Then I think you have Griffin, Mathurin, Murray, Johnny Davis and probably TyTy Washington. Now I know you say "OK, that's five guys that slot 6 to 10" and obviously it is. It's more a matter that there's such a gap between the top five and this five combined with the fact that a lot of those guys in the second five don't make sense for every team, not just saying by positional need but by style or because of other factors like injury questions, upside, roster makeup as a whole, etc.

Some people think Duren is as good or better than any of those guys in my second five, for example, but I think drafting a guy with his bust potential at 6 would be insane.

It's hard to explain. I guess what I'm trying to say with what you hope to get at the 6th pick, I'd feel a lot better picking one of these guys at 10, but you don't know if the one that might fit your team will be there at 10.

 

[Predator]

As I have said before, I would bet money I don't have that the Blazers will pick Shaedon Sharpe. Who would I pick? Well, let's just say I'm glad I don't have to. I like Johnny Davis a lot, but he's short. I have a nagging feeling that Keegan Murray is a flash in the pan: I have a rule - better take somebody who was WORSE in their last year of college than somebody who was suddenly much better. The former include Karl Malone most notably, the latter include a lot of busts. But fuck it, his draft bio says "low maintenance" and "really hustles" which is catnip for my ears (if that makes sense), so: him.

If the Blazers are at 6, Sharpe won’t be there - that’s my prediction.
He is gonna fly up draft boards especially after workouts which teams seemingly overvalue. He will be drafted before Ivey.

 

[Predator]

Lotta mocks have Griffin in the top 5, seen Mathurin up there too.

Griffin has *no business* being in the top 5.

Davis
Holmgren
Banchero
Sharpe
Ivey

And I say that as a Duke “kinda” fan.

And he isn’t nearly as skilled CJ. Not even close.

 

[Predator]

The Ringer really likes Jeremy Sochan (look at those player comps!), and I am totally on board with taking him with the Pelicans pick if we get it:
View attachment 47067

I was on Sochan when he was a “2nd rounder, might return to school” guy. Now he is flying up boards even beyond my liking.

Best overall defender in the draft though.

A Sharpe/Sochan draft is *chefs kiss*

 

[Hoopguru]

Griffin has *no business* being in the top 5.

Davis
Holmgren
Banchero
Sharpe
Ivey

And I say that as a Duke “kinda” fan.

And he isn’t nearly as skilled CJ. Not even close.

Davis?

 

[Pinwheel1]

I was on Sochan when he was a “2nd rounder, might return to school” guy. Now he is flying up boards even beyond my liking.

Best overall defender in the draft though.

A Sharpe/Sochan draft is *chefs kiss*

Sochan intrigues me as well. But my gut says we trade that pick.
Murray is the guy I think who will be available. His highlight film was great, but I was a little underwhelmed when I watched him in the tourney. Maybe my expectations were too high. I think he is a safe choice as a stretch 4 in today's NBA. But certainly does not have the highest ceiling.

 

[Hoopguru]

Sochan intrigues me as well. But my gut says we trade that pick.
Murray is the guy I think who will be available. His highlight film was great, but I was a little underwhelmed when I watched him in the tourney. Maybe my expectations were too high. I think he is a safe choice as a stretch 4 in today's NBA. But certainly does not have the highest ceiling.

How does anyone know what a player in the top 12 of 2022 draft's ceiling is? I bet the so called experts are wrong as much as they are right.
Who's got the highest ceiling in the 2 round?
Who has the narrowest variance between low ceiling and high ceiling?
How many potential HOFers are in this draft?
What top 15 player drafted is out of the league first?

 

[Pinwheel1]

How does anyone know what a player in the top 12 of 2022 draft's ceiling is? I bet the so called experts are wrong as much as they are right.
Who's got the highest ceiling in the 2 round?
Who has the narrowest variance between low ceiling and high ceiling?
How many potential HOFers are in this draft?
What top 15 player drafted is out of the league first?

All good points because we don't know how much each will improve. And they always need to. I guess I based it on his size ( 6'8" PF) and my guess is he will never dominate as stars do. But he is solid at pretty much everything. Including a nice 3pt stroke for a stretch 4.

 

[illmatic99]

Genuinely have no idea how i missed the other threads. Damn. Sorry @PtldPlatypus i think that green exclusive thing made me ignore the threads.


My order woulda been:
1. Paolo
2. Jabari
3. Ivey
4. Holmgren

 

[blazerkor]

Shaedon Sharpe may have the best upside of the players left but his unknowns give him high bustability and we aren't in the same position as the teams that will presumably be drafting around us. We need a PF, so if the guy available can fill that position and there isn't a disparity too big between him and someone who fills another position then we go with the best PF who stretches the floor, who's available.

Keegan Murray rebounds the ball well 8.7rpg this season, he shoots the three at 39.8, he's 6'8" with a 6'11" wingspan and at 225 with his build he should be a great size to play the modern PF position. He blocked 1.9 shots per game this season and stole the ball 1.5 times per game, so he has the ability to impact the game on the defensive end. I think this might be the first guy on our board if he ends up fifth that at least tests at the combine so his measurements and drill results should be interesting. Scouts are saying that he may have grown to 6'9" and that he's improved his vert and speed in the last year.

Any pick that doesn't get us Jabari or Paolo is a pick that I think has to be traded for a player already in the league that we know what we're getting with ,that will fill a position of need and add wins in the regular season and playoffs. I am basing these picks on the idea that the pick isn't available to be traded and we have to keep the player.

 

[Predator]

Davis?

Hahaha smith confused Johnny and Jabari my bad

 

[Predator]

Shaedon Sharpe may have the best upside of the players left but his unknowns give him high bustability and we aren't in the same position as the teams that will presumably be drafting around us. We need a PF, so if the guy available can fill that position and there isn't a disparity too big between him and someone who fills another position then we go with the best PF who stretches the floor, who's available.

Keegan Murray rebounds the ball well 8.7rpg this season, he shoots the three at 39.8, he's 6'8" with a 6'11" wingspan and at 225 with his build he should be a great size to play the modern PF position. He blocked 1.9 shots per game this season and stole the ball 1.5 times per game, so he has the ability to impact the game on the defensive end. I think this might be the first guy on our board if he ends up fifth that at least tests at the combine so his measurements and drill results should be interesting. Scouts are saying that he may have grown to 6'9" and that he's improved his vert and speed in the last year.

Any pick that doesn't get us Jabari or Paolo is a pick that I think has to be traded for a player already in the league that we know what we're getting with ,that will fill a position of need and add wins in the regular season and playoffs. I am basing these picks on the idea that the pick isn't available to be traded and we have to keep the player.

The issue is that the disparity between Shaedon and Keegan is massive.

Shaedon is widely regarded to be one of the only possible superstars in this draft. Keegan is not.

I forgot who posted above … maybe it was you … but determining the ceiling of a player is tough so Keegan could certainly be that.

But most “stars” have the same “general” traits so it does make putting a ceiling on a player possible even if they may bust thru that ceiling (although it may be highly unlikely.)

Personally, I’d rather take a chance on drafting a star, and use other assets to get a PF.

 

[blazerkor]

The issue is that the disparity between Shaedon and Keegan is massive.

Shaedon is widely regarded to be one of the only possible superstars in this draft. Keegan is not.

I forgot who posted above … maybe it was you … but determining the ceiling of a player is tough so Keegan could certainly be that.

But most “stars” have the same “general” traits so it does make putting a ceiling on a player possible even if they may bust thru that ceiling (although it may be highly unlikely.)

Personally, I’d rather take a chance on drafting a star, and use other assets to get a PF.

Right now we have to be looking at floors way more than we're looking at ceilings. A risky pick like Shaedon (that's just the way I see him and I've watched video) is just not a pick that we can make... like the fine print said, I wouldn't be looking to keep any of these guys but out of all of the players left that we'd be forced to keep Keegan is the guy I'd take. Keegan still has upside, he fills a position of need and his floor is so far and above where I see Shaedon's. It's not even a hard call for me given our team's circumstances.

It will be hard to avoid all of that potential Shaedon has starting with the next pick. I'm not alone, just about every mock out there has Keegan going in this spot ahead of Shaedon, that doesn't make it right, it just means that my opinion isn't crazy. You wanting to swing for the fences can be defended but I don't know if it makes sense on this roster. If there's a GM that's as excited about Shaedon as you I hope he's willing to put his money where his mouth is and give us proven NBA talent at a position of need that is close to equal to what you say Shaedon is.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

If the Blazers are at 6, Sharpe won’t be there - that’s my prediction.
He is gonna fly up draft boards especially after workouts which teams seemingly overvalue. He will be drafted before Ivey.

Possibly. But usually some player you never suspect ALSO flies up draft boards and will bump him down again!

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The issue is that the disparity between Shaedon and Keegan is massive.

Shaedon is widely regarded to be one of the only possible superstars in this draft. Keegan is not.

You keep saying that. Evidence? If he is it's because he's an unknown quantity. Remember, actual drafts NEVER go like the mock drafts because actual stupid humans with concerns that we don't know about (like job security) are involved, and people like that are also fucking TERRIFIED of unknown quantities. Sharpe probably also has various things counting against him, like the fact that every Canadian taken high in the draft has been a massive disappointment.

 

[blazerkor]

You keep saying that. Evidence? If he is it's because he's an unknown quantity. Remember, actual drafts NEVER go like the mock drafts because actual stupid humans with concerns that we don't know about (like job security) are involved, and people like that are also fucking TERRIFIED of unknown quantities. Sharpe probably also has various things counting against him, like the fact that every Canadian taken high in the draft has been a massive disappointment.

With the obvious exception of Anthony Bennett