I think the Rockets will still win this series against the Blazers, but there are some trends that I definitely don't like and I think there are some things to be concerned about.
When people would tell me there is good news and bad news and then ask which one I wanted to hear first I used to always say "bad news" first because I figured if I got the bad out of the way I would finish the conversation on a good note with my "good news." What I found was that the bad news always affected my ability to enjoy the good news.
I am going to give you my thoughts on the good news and bad news regarding the Rockets and their playoff lives, but I'm going to go with the good news first so you can enjoy yourselves for at least a few paragraphs.
Good News
* The Rockets top scoring threat, Yao Ming, has been held in check the entire playoff series (save the first half of game 1 when Portland decided not to front him) and yet the Rockets are leading the series 3-2 and have had opportunities to win Games 2 and 5.
* The Blazers two best players are combining for 50 points or more like it's nothing and yet the Rockets are able to hang right with the Blazers even in Portland.
* Yao Ming and the Rockets are finally starting to make a little headway in defeating the fronting defense of Portland. Don't get me wrong, he's still relatively ineffective in comparison to what he's able to do when teams play behind him, but it looks like Yao is developing a better understanding of how to get open and which angles to look for (generally entry passes from the wing towards the baseline seem to have the most success).
* Luis Scola's ability to consistently hit the mid range jumper - especially at the elbow of the FT line and a few feet beyond - will give the Rockets a great chance to win in Game 6 and an above average chance to win in Game 7 if needed.
* The refs are more than willing to call fouls on Greg Oden and Joel Przybilla for their physical play. Is it as often as Rocket fans would like? No, but realistically, they are getting whistled plenty and that will pay off if the Rockets are making their free throws.
* If Oden and Przybilla are both in foul trouble and they have to go with Aldridge on Yao, they are in deep trouble. Both Oden and Prissy work hard at fronting Yao, but Aldridge gives very little effort in trying to stay in front of Yao and it leads to easy baskets when 11 gets the ball with Aldridge on him.
* The Blazers have nobody quick enough to stick with Von Wafer. He might be relegated to instant offense status, but when he puts the ball on the ground, there isn't a Blazer on the roster who can stick with him so he should have plenty of opportunities to score on pull up jumpers and penetrations in Games 6 and 7 if that game is necessary.
Bad News
* Ron Artest has abandoned his physical "bull in a china shop" mentality and decided that he is more effective 20 feet or more from the basket or on 18-foot, step-back, off-balance fadeaway jumpers. In his five games against the Blazers, he is 7-of-25 from the 3-point line and 8-of-10 from the free-throw line. That is a very passive 5-to-2 ratio of three attempts to free throw attempts per game. To put it in perspective, Artest is averaging 3.5 three-point attempts and 4.8 free throw attempts per game for his career. Butch it up a little, Crazy Ron.
* Aaron Brooks went from explosive penetrator with a deft touch from 3 to Captain Overdribble who can't finish around the rim and is only 10-of-36 from the field over his last three games including 2-of-12 from the 3-point line. Steve Blake is outplaying the combination of Aaron Brooks and Kyle Lowry. That is not a good trend for the Rockets.
* There are possessions when the Rockets are working their tails off to get Yao Ming the ball, but many times they aren't able to make the entry pass until there are about 6 seconds left on the shot clock and by then, Nate McMillan is sending a double team at Yao which is forcing the Rockets to take some poor shots late in the possession.
* After scoring 108 and 103 in their first two games, the Rockets offense has managed only 86, 89 and 77 over their last three games. The Blazers have either stepped up their defense or they've figured out a few new ways to slow the Rockets offense. My guess is that it is a combination of both.
* I might have been wrong about the team needing to get rid of Rick Adelman, but I'll stand by my assertion that he hasn't had a great feel for his substitutions this series. Why take a scorching Von Wafer out for so long against the Blazers in Game 2? Why go back to Aaron Brooks in crunch time when his decision making, shooting and defense has been so suspect? Why keep a red-hot Luis Scola out for the first 8 minutes and 14 seconds of the second quarter when you couldn't get any offense going? Go back to Scola no later than 6 minutes into the quarter when he's playing like he was.
* The Blazers are gaining more and more confidence in themselves with every passing game and the Rockets simply don't have an answer for Brandon Roy or LaMarcus Aldridge. That's bad enough, but the killer is that Rudy Fernandez and Steve Blake are getting wide-open looks and they are nailing them. When Blake isn't getting open 3-point looks, he's getting into the line with ease against the Rockets PGs. There really isn't a position on the floor where the Rockets have an overwhelming advantage other than center and even that advantage has been tempered by the Blazers defense.
