RotoRob's Blazers 2008/2009 Preview

[ABM]

From: RotoRob

(Not sure about Travis starting, though......)

The 2008-09 RotoRob NBA Draft Kit just keeps on coming, today with Daniel putting the talented Blazers under the microscope.

For a team that nearly made the playoffs last season, you would think that one or two big changes would be made in order to get over the hump in the uber competitive Western Conference. But the Blazers really did not need to make a huge splash via free agency or trade. Why, you might ask, did Paul Allen’s club essentially stand pat? That would be the return of a healthy Greg Oden for what will be his rookie campaign after missing all of last season with arthroscopic knee surgery and the trade on draft day to acquire the number 11 overall pick (Jerryd Bayless) and Ike Diogu from the Indiana Pacers for the draft rights to Brandon Rush, plus Jarrett Jack and Josh McRoberts.

The Blazers, who finished 10th in the West last year, are being led by their defensive-minded coach, Nate McMillan, who helped the team limit their opponents to only 96.3 points per contest last year, sixth best in the West. And with the highly anticipated debut of Oden in the middle, expectations are running higher than ever for the team once referred to as the Jail Blazers and now maybe referred to as the Baby Blazers. But you won’t catch many teams being able to steal candy from these babies.

Projected Starting Lineup

PG: Steve Blake
SG: Brandon Roy
SF: Travis Outlaw
PF: LaMarcus Aldridge
C: Greg Oden

Key Bench Players: Joel Pryzbilla, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, Channing Frye

Position Battles

While Blake has proved to his naysayers that he can compete at the NBA level despite his slender 172 pounds, he will be pressed hard and early by the rookie sensation Bayless. The Blazers did not make the draft day trade for Bayless to let him rot on the bench so expect him to get quality minutes early on with a jump to the starting lineup inevitable at some point in the season.

Another semi battle to look out for might be Outlaw and Webster. Webster has yet to play in the pre-season and is expected to miss eight-to-10 weeks due to surgery on a stress fracture in his left foot. Outlaw, who has shown flashes of brilliance, will start in Webster’s absence and it might be tough for Webster to regain the starting SF position.

Stud: If Roy can stay healthy throughout the course of a long 82-game season, the Blazers will be right in the playoff hunt. He has shown that he was the steal of the draft two seasons ago and his versatility to do a little bit of everything will help immensely. Not only did he score 19.1 points per game last year, but he dished out 5.8 assists and pulled down 4.7 boards per game, an impressive total for a guard. With this being Oden’s first true season, Portland will need Roy to help show the big boy the ropes and feed him down low.

Dud: Joel Przybilla was fantastic in the second half last year, averaging over 11 boards per game, but he has too many holes in his game for fantasy purposes and with Oden around to steal his thunder, there’s not much point in owning this big man.

Sleeper: Guard Rudy Fernandez could be a key factor as a backup for the Blazers. At 6’5”, he showed the ability to hit the jumper and take it to the hole in Spain where he had a great deal of success. Injuries in preseason have slowed him down, but keep your eyes on him as the year progresses.

Rookies to watch: Bayless and Fernandez could come through big time in the backcourt this season. And don’t forget about that Oden dude; the Blazers could very well have be best rookie threesome in the league.

 

[mook]

The sleeper is Batum. Most of us thought he'd be in the NBADL this year. I would think if you are a fantasy league player, he'd be a great pickup in the last round because nobody knows anything about him.

Bayless probably doesn't get more than 7-10 mpg this season. Given that there are two combo guards far superior to him and actually fit the team makeup better (Roy, Fernandez), I think you have to look at him as the dud for this season. Somebody on this team is going to perform way below general expectations (somebody always does), and Bayless looks to be the candidate.

Call me a wild-eyed optimist, but I think the hottest debate by midseason is whether Rudy or Roy is the better guard of the future.

 

[alex42083]

Call me a wild-eyed optimist, but I think the hottest debate by midseason is whether Rudy or Roy is the better guard of the future.

No way... having those two on the floor together will be what we need to win the title, along with Aldridge and Oden. The only question is who our fifth guy will be on the floor, do we need another PG (Blake) or an SF (Webster, Outlaw or Batum)?
And we need Rudy to prove that he can hold up over 82 games plus playoffs because he is a little skinny and will take a lot of bumps this season.

 

[Ed O]

Call me a wild-eyed optimist, but I think the hottest debate by midseason is whether Rudy or Roy is the better guard of the future.

You're a wild-eyed optimist.

Maybe I'm a closed-minded pessimist, but I'm not buying the Rudy hype just yet. He's slight and he's subject to a lot of mistakes... Roy, on the other hand, is more controlled and has a body that (at least on paper) should hold up better to the rigors of an NBA season and career.

Ed O.

 

[mook]

You're a wild-eyed optimist.

Maybe I'm a closed-minded pessimist, but I'm not buying the Rudy hype just yet. He's slight and he's subject to a lot of mistakes... Roy, on the other hand, is more controlled and has a body that (at least on paper) should hold up better to the rigors of an NBA season and career.

Ed O.

I just got a feeling in my gut. Twice in the past I've made such bold predictions about players, long before I'd really had a lot of evidence to go on. Zach Randolph in his very first season. Brandon Roy right after his first summer league.

Seems like every year one or two guys emerge out of nowhere and become the Hot New Thing in the league. I really think Fernandez is going to be one of those guys.

Now comparing him to Roy, I'm not terribly worried that he's less controlled than Roy. Really, is there another guard in the league who better exhibits the word "control"?

I'm not even too worried about Fernandez's frame. Guys like Rip Hamilton and Allen Iverson have proven you don't have to be 230 lbs to make it in the league. (Fernandez better bulk up some, though, if he wants to continue attacking the rim.)

It's Rudy's passing and shooting that I think will lift him into that debate. He has the potential to be one of the very elite perimeter shooters in the game, combined with the potential to be the best passing shooting guard in the game. You add those two things together, and you've got somebody who really could be better than Roy.

 

[THE HCP]

You're a wild-eyed optimist.

Maybe I'm a closed-minded pessimist, but I'm not buying the Rudy hype just yet. He's slight and he's subject to a lot of mistakes... Roy, on the other hand, is more controlled and has a body that (at least on paper) should hold up better to the rigors of an NBA season and career.

Ed O.

You obviously didn't see the Sac game. This guy has game, not just flash. You can tell when somebody has court vision and basketball IQ. He has it all.

 

[BalancedMan]

The sleeper is Batum. Most of us thought he'd be in the NBADL this year. I would think if you are a fantasy league player, he'd be a great pickup in the last round because nobody knows anything about him.
.

I'm not so sure about that. You have to realize that he won't average many points and probably not that many rebounds. While he has shown the ability to shoot the 3, his percentages are going to be crap. Also, even if he's a lockdown defender that means he might be above average in steals or blocks. At a potent position like SF on fantasy rosters, that's not the kind of talent you want to put out there.

A few years ago I said that James Jones and Raja Bell were good sleepers as it was their first year in the Phoenix offense. You need a player with more minutes and opportunities than Batum will get. IMO, if a player doesn't average 25 minutes per game (and that is a low minimum, I prefer 30+) he is probably not startable in a standard fantasy league.

And yes, I do know what I'm talking about.

 

[ABM]

Here's their NW Division Review Of The Blazers:

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

This club has done a tremendous job of reshaping its image in a short period of time. Gone are the days of the “Jail Blazers,” with charter members like Darius Miles and Zach Randolph plying their trade elsewhere, and in their place is perhaps the best collection of young talent in the NBA. Of course, all eyes will be on Oden, the 72-year-old rookie who missed all of last year with osteoporosis (or something like that). Adding Oden to a young nucleus that includes Brandon Roy, LaMarcus Aldridge, Travis Outlaw and Martell Webster gives them huge upside at four positions, and they could add a fifth depending on how first-round pick Jerryd Bayless does behind veteran point guard Steve Blake.

It all starts in the middle with Oden, who has the tools to become an immediate force, though they might not give him as many minutes as you think given Oden’s injury and more-than-capable Joel Pryzbilla available off the pine. Aldridge looks like a future star at power forward and Channing Frye is another excellent reserve. Outlaw and Webster (when healthy) should split time at the three while Blake and Bayless hold down the fort at the point. Roy is the team’s best player, but the Blazers still added depth as highly regarded Spaniard Rudy Fernandez has made the jump to the NBA and is set to back up Roy. With a group that is both deep and talented, Portland should make the playoffs this season and push for a division crown. And hell, with new found success, maybe the Blazers will finally be able to afford to redesign their god-awful logo. Every time I look at that damn thing, I get a ’70s flashback.

Fantasy Spin

Guy I like…Oden - Yes, he looks 20 the same way Luke Perry looked 17 on Beverly Hill 90210, but he instantly steps in as one of the game’s top centres. He should average a double-double in his sleep and rank among the league leaders in blocks. Expect him to shoot a high percentage, too.

Guy I hate…Webster - A stress fracture in his foot is going to keep him out two months, and who knows how long it’ll take to get back to speed. With so much depth on the roster, Webster could find himself returning to a less significant role than the one he left.

 

[SheedSoNasty]

I kind of like the fact that a lot of people are probably sleeping on Batum right now. While he may not be the most gifted player on the offensive end, he could end up having a bigger overall impact than most anticipate.

 

[drexlersdad]

You're a wild-eyed optimist.

Maybe I'm a closed-minded pessimist, but I'm not buying the Rudy hype just yet. He's slight and he's subject to a lot of mistakes... Roy, on the other hand, is more controlled and has a body that (at least on paper) should hold up better to the rigors of an NBA season and career.

Ed O.

if rudy can challenge roy for playing time, we will be blessed.

r.o.y., all star, nuff said.