ROY comments on our offense - is there a problem here?

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Re: Why Roy likes a slow game where he controls the ball... and why we should too.

SlyPokerDog said:
You're either unemployed or you work for the federal government.


(Just kidding BC.)
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LOL! Under-employed at the moment, yes. But next week I'm back on full-time. Mostly, I just wanted to put my money where my mouth was and post something substantive and thoughtful... and basketball related!
 
Re: Why Roy likes a slow game where he controls the ball... and why we should too.

Everyone has said Roy-ball doesn't win in the playoffs but in the one series that he played healthy, the one game in which had the ball the most, we won. Game 2.

Also- I believe the Heat won the championship in 2006 playing a Wade ISO offense.
 
Re: Why Roy likes a slow game where he controls the ball... and why we should too.

In the playoffs, Roy has 2 or fewer turnovers in all of the wins (3 out of the 4 total since 08-09), as well as 1 foul or less in all of the wins. These point to games where Roy was allowed to be Roy, and didn't make mistakes.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

It feels like we have three or four threads all talking about the same thing. It's frying my brain trying to keep up.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

Natebishop3 said:
It feels like we have three or four threads all talking about the same thing. It's frying my brain trying to keep up.
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I'm juxtaposing all the thread titles together. My vision is somewhat blurred at this point.
 
Re: Why Roy likes a slow game where he controls the ball... and why we should too.

KingSpeed said:
Also- I believe the Heat won the championship in 2006 playing a Wade ISO offense.
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If you have a very good ISO player and play him/use him a lot - you are going to win often. LeBron's Cleveland teams that went far in the playoffs were also ISO heavy teams.

We do not have stat breakdown from the Heat's championship year, but last couple of years the Heat played a lot more ISO for Wade than the Blazers played for Roy (look at the percent of assisted made shots for him and it is a huge different from Roy).

On the other hand, Kobe played more off the ball than Brandon - but to be honest, Kobe plays in a system that does not have a traditional PG and the offense can be initiated by many members of the team - and Kobe is not as good a decision maker as a ball-handler as Brandon, especially when it comes to his own shot-selection.

ISO offense is good if you have a good supporting cast. The Blazers had a terrible playoffs supporting cast in 2008-2009 when Roy was playing like a superstar in an ISO system. The Blazers lost the Houston series not because of Roy, but because of almost anyone else on the team...

At the end of the day, if you look at how good Brandon is at making decisions, how efficient he is with the ball and how low his usage% is compared to most star-players, and the only logical thing to do, to me, is to assume that you want Brandon to handle the ball more, not less.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

This place is fucking nutz! I swear! First I come on here and read Brandon has peaked and will not make the all-star team. Now, "Fuck Brandon Roy!" Really? The same player who will help us win numerous games this season year and 28 other NBA head coaches would want as their starting 2 guard! Fucking amazing!
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

By the way, who can remember who are starting shooting guard was before we landed Brandon? That's right, Juan Dixon! Maybe we should cut Roy and bring him back!
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

Natebishop3 said:
It feels like we have three or four threads all talking about the same thing. It's frying my brain trying to keep up.
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Hah. I was just thinking the same thing. All this win share and random statistics are making my head spin.

Seems to me a case of paralysis by over-analysis.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

HCP said:
By the way, who can remember who are starting shooting guard was before we landed Brandon? That's right, Juan Dixon! Maybe we should cut Roy and bring him back!
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Juan Dixon was the best 6'1" 160lbs SG that money could buy. Is he even in the league anymore? Nevermind, I jus read that he was suspended by FIBA for steroid use.

I love his wife, so sexy!
 
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Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

MickZagger said:
Juan Dixon was the 6'1" 160lbs SG that money could buy. Is he even in the league anymore? Nevermind, I jus read that he was suspended by FIBA for steroid use.

I love his wife, so sexy!
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I REAAAAAALLY disliked Dixon as a player. Him playing significant minutes for the Blazers marked the lowest of the low points for me. Ugh.

Ed O.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

HCP said:
By the way, who can remember who are starting shooting guard was before we landed Brandon? That's right, Juan Dixon! Maybe we should cut Roy and bring him back!
Click to expand...

Dixon was a much better off-the-ball player than Roy! Bring back Juan!!!! :lol:
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

andalusian said:
If you look at the shot-distribution for Roy in 2008-2009 vs. 2009-2010 - it is clear that Roy played more off the ball last year - rather significantly. He was assisted on 3% more of his jump-shots and 5% on his dunks - but the biggest issue is that without the ball and the so called "ISO" offense, Roy's shot distribution changed a lot last year, instead of taking 66% of his attempts as jump shots - he took 74% of his attempts as jump shots, when he handled the ball - 31% of his shots came from close by - breaking the defense and getting close to the rim, this fell to 24% of his attempts vs. 31%

People complain that this is a jump-shooting team, but somehow, having a guy who can get close to the basket with the ball in his hands and shoot from up close is bad because he dominates the ball?

The team, as a whole, was at 66% jumpshots with Roy handling the ball more and at 69% jumpshots with him playing more off the ball.

It was not just this, but the team, as a whole, took 400 more shots in 2008-2009 vs the 2009-2010 team - and before you start telling me it's all offensive rebounds - the team took only 147 more offensive rebounds that year than last year...

Anyway you slice it - Roy handling the ball more is a good thing for the Portland Trail-Blazers.

If you want Roy to expand his game, I would suggest that the right thing to do for Brandon is to work on becoming even more of a PG than less of it, at least with the other players we have on the roster.
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Or, all of those stats say that the 1-4 set and ISO for Roy just became easy to defend and teams were able to keep Roy from getting to the hoop. So, it isn't "any way you slice it". That offense is predictable, and it gets shut down.

I want Roy to be highly utilized and get a lot of good shots. I don't want to watch this team keep trying the 1-4 set that teams can easily shut down.
 
Okay, I merged three of the Roy threads. Sorry to those of you who started them, but we needed to consolidate.
 
No problem with you moving them, but could you put a different thread title on it, please?

Never mind. I see that you did consolidate them under an appropriate title.
 
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Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

blazerboy30 said:
Or, all of those stats say that the 1-4 set and ISO for Roy just became easy to defend and teams were able to keep Roy from getting to the hoop. So, it isn't "any way you slice it". That offense is predictable, and it gets shut down.
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Please, that most certainly was not the case. Houston did not shut down Brandon in the playoffs - and if you actually saw the games last year - it was pretty clear that he did not handle the ball as much - which is exactly what Roy said in that interview about going back some to the offense before. If my observation matches what Roy tells you and the numbers back it up - I find it very hard to take seriously the "offense was shut down" stuff. When Brandon got to play like Brandon - even last year, he was a handful to stop.

I want Roy to be highly utilized and get a lot of good shots. I don't want to watch this team keep trying the 1-4 set that teams can easily shut down.
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Again with the nonsense about easy to shutdown. This team would not be as efficient offensively as they were if it was easy to shut down. The Blazers won at almost .700 rate in 2008-2009 and despite being very green and having really bad series by Blake, Aldridge and the Centers took Houston to 6 games, the same team that actually was the hardest for Lakers to get over during their championship run. And that very same "easy to shutdown" offense was 7th best in efficiency last year despite the fact that it featured Juwan Howard and Hip Replacement rookie for most of the Center minutes with Roy missing significant time.

The numbers do not lie. This team's offense is not as easy to shut down as you proclaim - you guys exhibit the classic case of "confirmation bias" - you pick and choose anecdotal evidence that fits your pre-conceived beliefs without looking at the data and consider the situation. The Blazers playing some games without Roy, and some games with a one legged Roy while also playing a once legged Batum and without Oden/Pryzbilla took the Suns to 6 games, while the Spurs playing with all 3 super-stars and Pop's beautiful offense were swept by the same Suns team.

Look at the data first, reach the conclusions later. Otherwise, you are just shoveling propaganda.
 
Re: Why Roy likes a slow game where he controls the ball... and why we should too.

BlazerCaravan said:
LOL! Under-employed at the moment, yes. But next week I'm back on full-time. Mostly, I just wanted to put my money where my mouth was and post something substantive and thoughtful... and basketball related!
Click to expand...

Berry picking is seasonal isn't it?
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

andalusian said:
Please, that most certainly was not the case. Houston did not shut down Brandon in the playoffs - and if you actually saw the games last year - it was pretty clear that he did not handle the ball as much - which is exactly what Roy said in that interview about going back some to the offense before. If my observation matches what Roy tells you and the numbers back it up - I find it very hard to take seriously the "offense was shut down" stuff. When Brandon got to play like Brandon - even last year, he was a handful to stop.



Again with the nonsense about easy to shutdown. This team would not be as efficient offensively as they were if it was easy to shut down. The Blazers won at almost .700 rate in 2008-2009 and despite being very green and having really bad series by Blake, Aldridge and the Centers took Houston to 6 games, the same team that actually was the hardest for Lakers to get over during their championship run. And that very same "easy to shutdown" offense was 7th best in efficiency last year despite the fact that it featured Juwan Howard and Hip Replacement rookie for most of the Center minutes with Roy missing significant time.

The numbers do not lie. This team's offense is not as easy to shut down as you proclaim - you guys exhibit the classic case of "confirmation bias" - you pick and choose anecdotal evidence that fits your pre-conceived beliefs without looking at the data and consider the situation. The Blazers playing some games without Roy, and some games with a one legged Roy while also playing a once legged Batum and without Oden/Pryzbilla took the Suns to 6 games, while the Spurs playing with all 3 super-stars and Pop's beautiful offense were swept by the same Suns team.

Look at the data first, reach the conclusions later. Otherwise, you are just shoveling propaganda.
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Bravo!

Very good post. You sir are repped.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

andalusian said:
Please, that most certainly was not the case. Houston did not shut down Brandon in the playoffs - and if you actually saw the games last year - it was pretty clear that he did not handle the ball as much - which is exactly what Roy said in that interview about going back some to the offense before. If my observation matches what Roy tells you and the numbers back it up - I find it very hard to take seriously the "offense was shut down" stuff. When Brandon got to play like Brandon - even last year, he was a handful to stop.



Again with the nonsense about easy to shutdown. This team would not be as efficient offensively as they were if it was easy to shut down. The Blazers won at almost .700 rate in 2008-2009 and despite being very green and having really bad series by Blake, Aldridge and the Centers took Houston to 6 games, the same team that actually was the hardest for Lakers to get over during their championship run. And that very same "easy to shutdown" offense was 7th best in efficiency last year despite the fact that it featured Juwan Howard and Hip Replacement rookie for most of the Center minutes with Roy missing significant time.

The numbers do not lie. This team's offense is not as easy to shut down as you proclaim - you guys exhibit the classic case of "confirmation bias" - you pick and choose anecdotal evidence that fits your pre-conceived beliefs without looking at the data and consider the situation. The Blazers playing some games without Roy, and some games with a one legged Roy while also playing a once legged Batum and without Oden/Pryzbilla took the Suns to 6 games, while the Spurs playing with all 3 super-stars and Pop's beautiful offense were swept by the same Suns team.

Look at the data first, reach the conclusions later. Otherwise, you are just shoveling propaganda.
Click to expand...

Why are you using the Suns series as an example. Strange coming from somebody getting upset about "confirmation basis".

Just because you're having a causality issue doesn't make you right.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

BrianFromWA said:
Hall of Famer Joe Dumars and the Worm say hello.
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Neither were considered stars on the level that certain poster was comparing. Dumars was about as much a star as Hamilton was. The Worm was a solid rebounder, but hardly a star in breath of the guys that were listed.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

MickZagger said:
Neither were considered stars on the level that certain poster was comparing. Dumars was about as much a star as Hamilton was. The Worm was a solid rebounder, but hardly a star in breath of the guys that were listed.
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Not at that time he wasn't, for sure.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

blazerboy30 said:
Why are you using the Suns series as an example. Strange coming from somebody getting upset about "confirmation basis".

Just because you're having a causality issue doesn't make you right.
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I did not. I showed you the efficiency for the entire year. I just pre-countered the usual "it is shut down in the playoffs" much rehashed argument.

We have data from over 2 years now that shows that the Blazers offense is very hard to shut-down. That's the efficiency information I am talking about.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

andalusian said:
I did not. I showed you the efficiency for the entire year. I just pre-countered the usual "it is shut down in the playoffs" much rehashed argument.

We have data from over 2 years now that shows that the Blazers offense is very hard to shut-down. That's the efficiency information I am talking about.
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Actually, you showed data that says the way offensive efficiency is calculated, the Blazers had a pretty good number. We've been through this before where we discussed how offensive rebounding helped to inflate that number.

And we also have data showing that Brandon had a more difficult time scoring last year. The stats show that Brandon didn't get to the hoop as much last year, and my observations say that the 1-4 set worked much better 2 years ago than it did last year. If your observations say that is because he was playing off the ball more, that is reasonable, I just disagree and the stats don't prove either way.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

blazerboy30 said:
And we also have data showing that Brandon had a more difficult time scoring last year. The stats show that Brandon didn't get to the hoop as much last year, and my observations say that the 1-4 set worked much better 2 years ago than it did last year. If your observations say that is because he was playing off the ball more, that is reasonable, I just disagree and the stats don't prove either way.
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Given that Brandon pretty much said himself that the offensive scheme was changed last year to accommodate 'Dre (the way this thread started) - I am not really sure what there is to discuss - unless you want to come out and say that Roy is telling tall tales.
 
Re: Fuck Brandon Roy

andalusian said:
Given that Brandon pretty much said himself that the offensive scheme was changed last year to accommodate 'Dre (the way this thread started) - I am not really sure what there is to discuss - unless you want to come out and say that Roy is telling tall tales.
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And the team was drastically different as well. There are many, many factors that could have impacted the change in efficiency or Roy's change in shot selection.

You found some stats that you like, and are now claiming causation where it is far from obvious. In your own post, you claim that you can't point to offensive rebounding being part of the difference because we only collected 147 less ORB. You failed to mention that 147 ORB is ~15% for the year. That is a lot, and could very possibly be the difference in efficiency.

It is funny that you blow off other people's observations as confirmation bias, but your use of the stats is pretty suspect.
 
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