Semi OT: Another "casualty" of a lockout

[Nikolokolus]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/blog?name=nba_draft&id=5610548

Underclassmen might not declare for the draft next year ...

Our own Larry Coon did a great job of looking at some of the potential ramifications of a lockout next summer.

Here's another one. It could utterly destroy the 2011 NBA draft.


"We're really worried," one NBA GM told ESPN.com. "The lifeblood of any draft is the underclassmen, and our scouts are hearing that many of them won't declare if there's a chance of a long lockout next year. Why go into the draft if you won't be paid and won't be allowed to play? Better to go back to college."

Dick Vitale would be happy, but a number of NBA executives are legitimately concerned. This year, the first 22 players selected in the draft were underclassmen. In our most recent 2011 Top 100, only two of the top 25 prospects are college seniors.

No one is going to get too excited if Duke's Kyle Singler and Morehead State's Kenneth Faried are the two top players in the draft -- well, except Singler and Faried.

 

[HailBlazers]

Should make for some good march madness

 

[Minstrel]

Good year for Portland to be nowhere near the lottery.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Good year for Portland to be nowhere near the lottery.

My thoughts exactly.

"And with the first pick in the 2011 draft the Minnesota Timberwolves select ... Nolan Smith" :barf:

 

[PtldPlatypus]

While the top two or three players might choose not to declare, I highly doubt that most of the underclassmen would stay. Without the top guys, players will have the opportunity to be drafted much higher than they would otherwise be able, locking them into a much more lucrative "slot", even if they have to sit out a year. I have no doubt that the rookie scale will survive the CBA negotiations, so the value of going top-5 will far outpace the benefit of playing another year in college.

 

[e_blazer]

The 2012 draft would look that much better.

 

[Minstrel]

While the top two or three players might choose not to declare, I highly doubt that most of the underclassmen would stay. Without the top guys, players will have the opportunity to be drafted much higher than they would otherwise be able, locking them into a much more lucrative "slot", even if they have to sit out a year. I have no doubt that the rookie scale will survive the CBA negotiations, so the value of going top-5 will far outpace the benefit of playing another year in college.

If you take out the top two or three, it still devastates the draft, IMO. Generally, the "exciting prospects" (the ones who have the blue chip pedigree and best project as stars/superstars) are at the very top. Sometimes you don't have any, but almost never more than two or three. A draft without any big-time prospects would be a crusher for teams selecting in the top five which is generally the impactful part of the draft on draft day. Of course, it may end up being the type of draft where impact is eventually made later on the draft, unbeknownst on draft day.

 

[Nikolokolus]

While the top two or three players might choose not to declare, I highly doubt that most of the underclassmen would stay. Without the top guys, players will have the opportunity to be drafted much higher than they would otherwise be able, locking them into a much more lucrative "slot", even if they have to sit out a year. I have no doubt that the rookie scale will survive the CBA negotiations, so the value of going top-5 will far outpace the benefit of playing another year in college.

Perhaps, but do those guys really have the luxury of not playing competitive ball for up to a year and also not drawing a paycheck, all for the privilege of locking themselves into a relatively small rookie scale deal? I'm sure at least a couple of underclassmen with NBA aspirations will take a chance, but that seems like an awful risk, especially for guys lacking top ten talent.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

If you take out the top two or three, it still devastates the draft, IMO. Generally, the "exciting prospects" (the ones who have the blue chip pedigree and best project as stars/superstars) are at the very top. Sometimes you don't have any, but almost never more than two or three. A draft without any big-time prospects would be a crusher for teams selecting in the top five which is generally the impactful part of the draft on draft day. Of course, it may end up being the type of draft where impact is eventually made later on the draft, unbeknownst on draft day.

Agreed--it will probably end up like the '06 draft (the first one after the age limit), perhaps minus Aldridge/Thomas/Gay. It will be weak at the top and overall, but it won't be completely devoid of talent/potential like the article and the unnamed GM suggest.

Perhaps, but do those guys really have the luxury of not playing competitive ball for up to a year and also not drawing a paycheck, all for the privilege of locking themselves into a relatively small rookie scale deal? I'm sure at least a couple of underclassmen with NBA aspirations will take a chance, but that seems like an awful risk, especially for guys lacking top ten talent.

Sure they do. For one, they could play in Europe if the NBA were not functioning. Second, their agents would likely help them get by in the interim (as agents often do). And as far as scale is concerned, the difference in going top-15 next summer or going late-first/early-second a year later is HUGE, especially for guys who truly lack top-ten talent.

 

[THE HCP]

My wife and kids will be the biggest casualty!

 

[hasoos]

Sounds like a good year to start a new basketball league.......

 

[MickZagger]

This won't effect these guys. They'll still come out, they'll just take their services over to Europe for a year until they sort things out. Shit, there's college kids these days that forgo college basketball all together to play in Europe until they're eligible for the draft. If NBA's on their minds, I'm sure a majority of them would rather go over to Europe where they can get paid.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

My wife and kids will be the biggest casualty!

Even before I saw your post, I actually wondered if this is true. Is it?

 

[THE HCP]

Let me tell you, Half my income comes from the Blazers! I hate to say this, but we are gripping about this big time!

 

[espn_hall_of_famer]

Let me tell you, Half my income comes from the Blazers! I hate to say this, but we are gripping about this big time!

Hold on tight then.

 

[THE HCP]

Hold on tight then.

Last time didn't they start Feb 1st? How long can you stay in your house without paying the mortgage?

 

[jlprk]

"our scouts are hearing that many of them won't declare if there's a chance of a long lockout next year. Why go into the draft if you won't be paid and won't be allowed to play? Better to go back to college."

So a drafted player doesn't get paid until many months after the draft, when Stern and the Union sign a new CBA, which enables player contracts to be written. I guess a star college player's motive to stay in college is that he's used to being supported, and doesn't know how to hold a normal job for a few months.

Good year for Portland to be nowhere near the lottery.

Corollary: If Cho trades Rudy for a 2011 pick, make that a 2012 pick.

My wife and kids will be the biggest casualty!

Put the wife and kids to work! I even have an idea! I got nothing for what the kids' jobs will be, though.