Semi-OT: Hollinger talks about Durant

[santeesioux]

keep ZBo as a backup or starting PF

You lost me there

 

[andalusian]

They talk about LeBron being better at a young age than Jordan was, and use the stats to show it's a reasonable argument.

Durant's stats are up there with LeBron's, but he's a year younger than LeBron was (in their 2nd seasons).

Durant's numbers are not close to LeBrons's. In his 2nd year LeBron had an epic 25.7 PER vs. Durant's very good but not close to it 20.8

Add the fact that LeBron played defense from the get go - and as usual, Durant is overrated...

 

[Denny Crane]

You lost me there

You'd have had 26 year old ZBo at PF, 21 year old LMA at C, and 20 year old Durant at SF. And Joel as a solid backup. Or start Joel and bring in ZBo at PF and move LMA to C for a few minutes a game.

The pair of wings in Durant and Roy would be pretty amazing.

 

[santeesioux]

You'd have had 26 year old ZBo at PF, 21 year old LMA at C, and 20 year old Durant at SF. And Joel as a solid backup. Or start Joel and bring in ZBo at PF and move LMA to C for a few minutes a game.

The pair of wings in Durant and Roy would be pretty amazing.

You'd have 4 guys standing around watching Zbo run down the shot clock forcing a shot...

 

[Denny Crane]

Durant's numbers are not close to LeBrons's. In his 2nd year LeBron had an epic 25.7 PER vs. Durant's very good but not close to it 20.8

Add the fact that LeBron played defense from the get go - and as usual, Durant is overrated...

LeBron 42 MP, .472 FG, .351 3pt, 7.4 RPG, 7.2 APG, 27.7 PPG (21 years old)
Durant 39 MP, .476 FG, .422 3pt, 6.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 25.3 PPG (20 years old)

Per 36
LeBron 6.2 RPG, 6.1 APG, 23.1 PPG, 1.9 SPG
Durant 6.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 23.3 PPG, 1.2 SPG

LeBron having a huge advantage in assists.

 

[huevonkiller]

Add the fact that LeBron played defense from the get go -

Not really.

http://82games.com/04CLE9C.HTM

 

[VanillaGorilla]

The assist numbers make a huge difference to me. And I do not see Durant as being as good of a defender as LeBron. Plus, with at this +/- stuff going around I think it would be tough to find someone who would pick Durant over LeBron

 

[Webster's Dictionary]

You have to take into account that Durrant is starting the game against the other team's best. OkC is a ton of roll players and some young guys, so perhaps when the young guys are in getting experience with Durrant, they struggle, but the bench is actually a good bench and brings them back into games against the other team's bench, but when the stars come back in is when Durrant usually does.

 

[Deebag]

Durant's body will never allow him to be a great defender. Something that MJ, LeBron, and Kobe all excel at it which is why they're considered the "complete package". Durant is an offensive juggernaut and that's pretty much it. Therefore he's not really a centerpiece material. At the very least, in my opinion.

 

[Masbee]

LeBron 42 MP, .472 FG, .351 3pt, 7.4 RPG, 7.2 APG, 27.7 PPG (21 years old)
Durant 39 MP, .476 FG, .422 3pt, 6.5 RPG, 2.8 APG, 25.3 PPG (20 years old)

Per 36
LeBron 6.2 RPG, 6.1 APG, 23.1 PPG, 1.9 SPG
Durant 6.0 RPG, 2.6 APG, 23.3 PPG, 1.2 SPG

LeBron having a huge advantage in assists.

The assists advantage is HUUUUUUGE.

Both players have a high usage rate, which you would expect, and as is right for such talents. But in LeBron's case it ends up helping the other players, his team, and to win games. LeBron Usage 30% (34% mvp); Durant Usage 28%

Other Advanced Stats for 2nd years; (LeBron's MVP year stats in noted for comparison):

True Shooting Percentage:
LeBron: 55% (59% mvp)
Durant: 58%
No doubt about it, Durant is a great shooter and scorer. LeBron isn't nearly as good a shooter. But, his efficiency was close due to free throws. A LeBron type scorer is so much more valuable to the team by getting the opponent in foul trouble, breaking down the defense creating easier opportunities for inferior teammates.

Defensive Rebound Percentage:
LeBron: 17% (19% mvp)
Durant: 16%
Durant is much better than his rookie year. He needs to keep working on this.

Assist Percentage:
LeBron: 33% (38% mvp)
Durant: 14%

Offensive Rating:
LeBron: 114 (122 mvp)
Durant: 111 (not bad)

Defensive Rating:
LeBron: 103 (99 mvp)
Durant: 109 (ouch)

Win Shares:
LeBron: 14.1 (19.9 mvp)
Durant: 8.1

The whole line about Durant being as good as LeBron is silly. Sure, Durant may have improved since last season - in fact he looked better at the end of the season then he did at the start - but so did LeBron since his 2nd season.

LeBron went from really good top 5 player his second season, to mindblowing stats in one of the all-time great season performances. The improvement in all areas of his game was significant. Durant getting the kudos at the camp for improving only tells us that Durant continue to improve as he improved from his rookie season. He has to just keep up with LeBron's improvement pace. He will have to do this for 5 or 6 more years.

 

[craigehlo]

Durant's body will never allow him to be a great defender. Something that MJ, LeBron, and Kobe all excel at it which is why they're considered the "complete package". Durant is an offensive juggernaut and that's pretty much it. Therefore he's not really a centerpiece material. At the very least, in my opinion.

It's not his body that's the problem on D, it's his head. Bruce Bowen wasn't a physical specimen, but still became a great defender. KD is the most lackadaisical defender on that team if you watch him on that end of the floor.

I think his ceiling isn't Kobe or LeBron, it's Melo at best. And he still has a long way to go to get there.

 

[Tortimer]

All I have to say is Durant is way way overrated. There no way we would be a playoff team last year or going forward with Zbo at PF, LMA at center and Durant at SF. Zbo alone would keep us out of the playoffs. Our team is much better now with Oden then having Durant. Just give it another year and if Oden stays healthy there won't even be a question about the Oden/Durant draft.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

You have to take into account that Durrant is starting the game against the other team's best. OkC is a ton of roll players and some young guys, so perhaps when the young guys are in getting experience with Durrant, they struggle, but the bench is actually a good bench and brings them back into games against the other team's bench, but when the stars come back in is when Durrant usually does.

Why isn't this true of all good players on bad teams? Why is it the case that Durant is SO bad? (And why isn't it also true of all the starters on the OKC roster?)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Apparently Durant reads Hollinger:

Kevin Durant used his Twitter account Sunday to express frustration with critics who question his individual abilities and the Thunder as a team. Durant didn’t reveal who he was directing his series of messages to, but his target appeared to be a recent critical analysis piece written by ESPN.com that examined his talents and worth to a franchise.

[snip]

Durant responded: "Everybody that is doubtin’ me as a player and my team as a whole...all I can say is that we all are tryin’ and workin’ our hardest!

"What more do you want? Let me be the player I am...I come to practice everyday...and push myself to my limit, God has put me (in) a (great) position!!!

"I love all the REAL basketball fans who appreciate hard work, passion and love for the game...and not (just) ‘plus and minuses’...(whatever that) is.”

Awww. I love the "whatever that is". I hope somebody can take him aside and explain, because it really isn't that complicated. I also love the "and my team as a whole". Don't worry Kevin, they're only doubting YOU.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

The follow-up from the increasingly insufferable Henry Abbott. ("Memo to a young Baller"! "I feel your pain"! "Gag me with a spoon" Oh, wait, that last one was me. Although I do have to agree with an awful lot of what the article actually says.)

 

[andalusian]

Not really.

http://82games.com/04CLE9C.HTM

What is not really about it? In LeBron's rookie year - his defesive rating was 104 points per 100 possessions, he is now down to 99. Durant's rookie year was 110 and he is now down to 109. It is especially damning when you realize that the Thunder without Durant are respectable at 103...

LeBron was much better at defense from the minute he walked on the court.

 

[andalusian]

Durant's body will never allow him to be a great defender. Something that MJ, LeBron, and Kobe all excel at it which is why they're considered the "complete package". Durant is an offensive juggernaut and that's pretty much it. Therefore he's not really a centerpiece material. At the very least, in my opinion.

Are you sure about that. Durant's body looks to me just like KG's early years - and KG is a fantastic defender.

Durant is just not a good one - and only time will tell if he will put the work/have the interest in becoming one...

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Are you sure about that. Durant's body looks to me just like KG's early years - and KG is a fantastic defender.

Not to mention Tayshaun Prince or even Michael Cooper.

Durant is just not a good one - and only time will tell if he will put the work/have the interest in becoming one...

Right. He's more like Ralph Sampson or George Gervin.

 

[LittleAlex]

All I have to say is Durant is way way overrated. There no way we would be a playoff team last year or going forward with Zbo at PF, LMA at center and Durant at SF. Zbo alone would keep us out of the playoffs. Our team is much better now with Oden then having Durant. Just give it another year and if Oden stays healthy there won't even be a question about the Oden/Durant draft.

People will always question it since Durant will probably average in the high 20's for points per game. Folks who treat NBA teams the same way they treat fantasy basketball teams will say if Portland added his points into a team with Roy and LMA they would score a ton.

Oden is better for the current incarnation of the team. Had Portland not gotten Roy and LMA the year prior, I am not sure if Oden would have been the best choice.

 

[huevonkiller]

What is not really about it? In LeBron's rookie year - his defesive rating was 104 points per 100 possessions, he is now down to 99. Durant's rookie year was 110 and he is now down to 109. It is especially damning when you realize that the Thunder without Durant are respectable at 103...

LeBron was much better at defense from the minute he walked on the court.

Really? To me it looks like his defensive PER is atrocious that season, which undercuts your previous point.

 

[andalusian]

Really? To me it looks like his defensive PER is atrocious that season, which undercuts your previous point.

The problem I have with defensive PER is that it assumes that you are on the opponent in whatever position you are playing at all time - so if you switch to defend the pick and roll and the guy you switched from scores because your team-mate did not rotate properly - your defensive PER suffers. Defense in the NBA is even more of a team-game than offense, imho - and DRTG measures it a lot better - at least the team aspect of it.

Look at Durant's defensive PER of the last year - he seems to be pretty decent - especially when you consider his Net PER for the SF and PF positions - and yet, his team gives up a lot more points per possession when he is on the court. Something does not smell good for defensive PER in this situation - and the same is true for LeBron...

 

[huevonkiller]

The problem I have with defensive PER is that it assumes that you are on the opponent in whatever position you are playing at all time - so if you switch to defend the pick and roll and the guy you switched from scores because your team-mate did not rotate properly - your defensive PER suffers. Defense in the NBA is even more of a team-game than offense, imho - and DRTG measures it a lot better - at least the team aspect of it.

Look at Durant's defensive PER of the last year - he seems to be pretty decent - especially when you consider his Net PER for the SF and PF positions - and yet, his team gives up a lot more points per possession when he is on the court. Something does not smell good for defensive PER in this situation - and the same is true for LeBron...

+/- numbers can also be very inaccurate.

LeBron James defends both forward positions terribly, I also see 7 players on the Cavs that year with a defensive rating of 104 or lower. Not sure his teammates were bad enough to support this idea.

 

[andalusian]

+/- numbers can also be very inaccurate.

LeBron James defends both forward positions terribly, I also see 7 players on the Cavs that year with a defensive rating of 104 or lower. Not sure his teammates were bad enough to support this idea.

I do not know what this means, honestly.

In his rookie year, with LeBron on the court, the Cavs gave up 3 points MORE per 100 possessions when he was NOT on the court - they were a better defensive team with him on the court - this year (Durant's 2nd) - the Thunder gave up 8 points LESS per 100 possessions when he was NOT on the court. They were a better defensive team with him NOT on the court.

That's all that matters, right there.

Does it matter if the opposing team scores more by it's forwards, centers or guards? All that matters is that when LeBron was on the court - usually against the other team's best players, the other team scored less than when he was not. The opposite is true for Durant - and that's the crux of the problem.

 

[huevonkiller]

I do not know what this means, honestly.

In his rookie year, with LeBron on the court, the Cavs gave up 3 points MORE per 100 possessions when he was NOT on the court - they were a better defensive team with him on the court - this year (Durant's 2nd) - the Thunder gave up 8 points LESS per 100 possessions when he was NOT on the court. They were a better defensive team with him NOT on the court.

That's all that matters, right there.

Does it matter if the opposing team scores more by it's forwards, centers or guards? All that matters is that when LeBron was on the court - usually against the other team's best players, the other team scored less than when he was not. The opposite is true for Durant - and that's the crux of the problem.

I don't know if you noticed but Durant's defensive PER is absolutely atrocious, I'm not sure that disproves my point at all. He's right up there as well with LeBron. Both of them sucked on D, but if we want to find out which was worse that's another issue I didn't really intend to comment on at first. You just made a an erroneous comment I wanted to correct.

Every player that got regular time in Oklahoma's rotation had a defensive rating of 108 or worse. If we're going by that figure, Durant's teammates didn't exactly help him either.

+/- is not always based on value but chemistry, which is why Hollinger doesn't immediately reiterate these findings. I've seen +/- figures say Rasheed Wallace is the tenth best player in the 2000s per minute. Or that Ronny Turiaf was more valuable per minute than Allstar X.

 

[andalusian]

Every player that got regular time in Oklahoma's rotation had a defensive rating of 108 or worse. If we're going by that figure, Durant's teammates didn't exactly help him either.

That makes sense - since Durant plays so much - they spend a lot of time on the court with him. Where the evidence is damning - is that when he is not on the court - their defensive acumen as a team is much better - where the opposite was the true for LeBron's team-mates when he was a rookie...

In other words - if Durant's team-mates were 3 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the court than with him on it (as LeBron's team-mates were) - I would overlook the difference in their DRTG and would attribute it to the team as a whole. As is it is not the case - I think it is pretty clear that LeBron, while maybe not a defensive stopper as a rookie - at least played acceptable defense for a rookie, while Durant in his 2nd year still looks like a disaster on defense.

 

[huevonkiller]

That makes sense - since Durant plays so much - they spend a lot of time on the court with him. Where the evidence is damning - is that when he is not on the court - their defensive acumen as a team is much better - where the opposite was the true for LeBron's team-mates when he was a rookie...

In other words - if Durant's team-mates were 3 points per 100 possessions worse with him off the court than with him on it (as LeBron's team-mates were) - I would overlook the difference in their DRTG and would attribute it to the team as a whole. As is it is not the case - I think it is pretty clear that LeBron, while maybe not a defensive stopper as a rookie - at least played acceptable defense for a rookie, while Durant in his 2nd year still looks like a disaster on defense.

Green and Durant play the most minutes on that young squad and Green is lacking just as much on D. They play at pretty much the same time which accounts for part of the problem.

I wasn't talking about LeBron as a rookie, he still sucked defensively his second year just not as much as Durant, maybe. Playing next to Green in that environment, who knows really.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

+/- is not always based on value but chemistry, which is why Hollinger doesn't immediately reiterate these findings. I've seen +/- figures say Rasheed Wallace is the tenth best player in the 2000s per minute. Or that Ronny Turiaf was more valuable per minute than Allstar X.

Why does that discount the data? If we qualify it carefully by saying "Ronny Turiaf was more valuable to his team than Allstar X was to his team over period y", then what's the problem? (Are you assuming that "chemistry" is a randomly assigned gift from the heavens, or just an accidentally arising property of a group? If so, then it would bless equally every member of that group and not favor any particular individual.)

I think people who have a problem with +/- because it denigrates players like Durant, Iverson and the like just haven't played enough pickup basketball. Play with a guy like Durant, however great a person he might be, and it makes a lot of sense that he's not really helping you win, despite great talents in certain aspects of the game.

(Turiaf's value might be that he's the ONLY Warrior who actually plays defense. Rasheed's value I have no problem with - his "IQ" is off the charts, AND he has a history of working with younger players (just not older, Lithuanian players) to encourage them. And he genuinely doesn't give a shit about stats.)

 

[Rastapopoulos]

I don't know if you noticed but Durant's defensive PER is absolutely atrocious,

You need to respond to his criticisms of defensive PER. Does Hollinger (who invented PER, right?) even acknowledge the existence of such a thing? Seriously, if a team played zone permanently, would it mean ANYTHING?

 

[huevonkiller]

Why does that discount the data? If we qualify it carefully by saying "Ronny Turiaf was more valuable to his team than Allstar X was to his team over period y", then what's the problem? (Are you assuming that "chemistry" is a randomly assigned gift from the heavens, or just an accidentally arising property of a group? If so, then it would bless equally every member of that group and not favor any particular individual.)

I think people who have a problem with +/- because it denigrates players like Durant, Iverson and the like just haven't played enough pickup basketball. Play with a guy like Durant, however great a person he might be, and it makes a lot of sense that he's not really helping you win, despite great talents in certain aspects of the game.

(Turiaf's value might be that he's the ONLY Warrior who actually plays defense. Rasheed's value I have no problem with - his "IQ" is off the charts, AND he has a history of working with younger players (just not older, Lithuanian players) to encourage them. And he genuinely doesn't give a shit about stats.)

Again +/- measures how good squads fit together, not the talent or production that is produced by one player. So that is a nuance that has to be taken into account.

At no point was Turiaf better or more valuable than KG, who has to guard more important players and takes on a bigger responsibility. In no manner is Odom more important to the Lakers than Gasol, Hollinger himself discredits +/- in some instances.

 

[huevonkiller]

You need to respond to his criticisms of defensive PER. Does Hollinger (who invented PER, right?) even acknowledge the existence of such a thing? Seriously, if a team played zone permanently, would it mean ANYTHING?

Yeah that's right Hollinger didn't fully seem to accept +/-.

Well then, what does Defensive rating even mean? That's not exactly a precise stat either.