Semi-OT: Oden and team insanity

[oldmangrouch]

His advanced stats look very good. By "looks", if one means "using eyeballs", then I would agree with you... he looks awkward and unsure of himself.

If, though, but "looks" one means "projects", then the stats say in SPITE of the eyeball test he had a very effective year last season when he was on the floor. His rebounding and his ability to draw fouls were both very impressive, and given his age he should only get better.

Ed O.

I can't entirely agree with that. A player can have a nice PER without the ability to create offense for himself - and that is the part of Oden's game that flunks the "eyeball" test.

That is a big part of the reason I am so excited about Miller. With him in the fold, Oden (and others) should get more "easy" baskets.

 

[oldmangrouch]

I used the word "looks" in response to the person I was responding to using that word, not to convey how he appears to the eye. I agree that he looks awkward on the court. Ultimately, it's not appearances that matter, it's actual production. His production when on the court was strong...and for a rookie who was recovering from surgery, it was consistent with a future star.

That doesn't mean he actually will become a star. Nothing is guaranteed. But he was billed as a star talent by the scouting community and his first season didn't contradict that scouting consensus. He "looked" disappointing and his minutes played were disappointing...but his on-court production was actually very good.

Serious question. If Oden went through the NBA combine again tomorrow, do you think his results would be anywhere near as stellar? Frankly, I don't.....and don't believe they ever will be. You can't just blame the surgery either.

Do you remember Sabonis when he was Oden's age? I doubt there was a 7' in the world who ran the floor better than he did. The Sabonis we saw in Portland looked more like a tree trunk. It wasn't just injuries either - his physique *changed* as he aged.

Sabonis had a tremendous understanding of how to play the game. As he got stronger and slower (and lost lateral quickness to the achilles injuries), his game and skills evolved to compensate. IMHO, Oden has to prove he is capable of making that same evolution before he can be considered more than just a good, useful player.

(I will now put away my soapbox and run for cover)

 

[Minstrel]

Serious question. If Oden went through the NBA combine again tomorrow, do you think his results would be anywhere near as stellar? Frankly, I don't.....and don't believe they ever will be. You can't just blame the surgery either.

If he's heavier now, they wouldn't be. I think he can slim down and recoup most of the athleticism he showed in that combine. The question is, is he better off as a player at his combine weight and athleticism or somewhat heavier and stronger, at the expense of some of that athleticism? Hopefully, the Blazers staff and Oden make the right call on that.

Do you remember Sabonis when he was Oden's age? I doubt there was a 7' in the world who ran the floor better than he did. The Sabonis we saw in Portland looked more like a tree trunk. It wasn't just injuries either - his physique *changed* as he aged.

That's about a decade or more of aging and battering. Obviously, Oden won't be a gazelle when he's early- to mid-30s. I think for the next 5-10 years, he'll be one of the best athletes in the NBA (declining toward the end of that window).

Oden definitely has to get "smarter" about the game (I put that in quotation marks, because I think it is largely savvy that comes from experience, not an intellect issue) and more skilled. But you're compressing a discussion that's appropriate for a 10 year veteran into a look back at Oden's rookie season. He's played one year (less than that, due to injuries). Isn't it a little early to be wondering about evolution and veteran smarts? He was playing at less than full strength. I think that through this coming season, we'll have a much better look at Oden. If at the end of the 2009-10 season he looks similar to his 2008-09 form, I'll be worried. Until then, I'd like to see what he does in his first, full-strength season.

 

[oldmangrouch]

If he's heavier now, they wouldn't be. I think he can slim down and recoup most of the athleticism he showed in that combine. The question is, is he better off as a player at his combine weight and athleticism or somewhat heavier and stronger, at the expense of some of that athleticism? Hopefully, the Blazers staff and Oden make the right call on that.



That's about a decade or more of aging and battering. Obviously, Oden won't be a gazelle when he's early- to mid-30s. I think for the next 5-10 years, he'll be one of the best athletes in the NBA (declining toward the end of that window).

Oden definitely has to get "smarter" about the game (I put that in quotation marks, because I think it is largely savvy that comes from experience, not an intellect issue) and more skilled. But you're compressing a discussion that's appropriate for a 10 year veteran into a look back at Oden's rookie season. He's played one year (less than that, due to injuries). Isn't it a little early to be wondering about evolution and veteran smarts? He was playing at less than full strength. I think that through this coming season, we'll have a much better look at Oden. If at the end of the 2009-10 season he looks similar to his 2008-09 form, I'll be worried. Until then, I'd like to see what he does in his first, full-strength season.

Fair enough...but I am going to hold you to those last 2 sentences!

 

[Boob-No-More]

Glad to see you guys are finally starting to come around to the fact that Oden is a role player.... now, there is nothing wrong with Role Players - they help you win games - they are extremely important.. however - Oden was drafted #1 overall - above a kid in Durant who has limitless potential and was a SURE FIRE superstar.

That is what I have always had a problem with.. guys like Oden are way more easily found than guys like Durant.

We made a mistake.

Defense and rebounding win games and win titles. Oden gives you both, Durant gives you neither. I'll still take Oden over Durant and won't change my mind until Durant's team finishes ahead of us in the standings and/or advances further than we do in the post season. Let Durant win the scoring titles while Oden's team wins the rings.

BNM

 

[Minstrel]

Fair enough...but I am going to hold you to those last 2 sentences!

I try to follow the data (and expert opinions when it comes to prospects without much NBA history), especially for Blazers players, since I know I'm likely to lose some objectivity. If I did absolutely nothing but watch Oden last year, I'd have been very disappointed. But I think there are too many emotional and cognitive flaws in doing nothing but watching a top prospect play. Thus, I think advanced numbers are important.

So, to answer an assertion you never made: I don't think I am being an apologist. I believe in Oden because I think his production so far in combination with scouting opinions warrants it. If he stalls out or regresses or otherwise starts to contradict what was believed about him, my opinion about him will change.

 

[Boob-No-More]

I'd be happy at this point to see him actually become an above average starting center.

All that is required for him to be an above average starting center is staying out of foul trouble.

His Per-36 numbers as an out-of-shape rookie coming off microfracture surgery were 14.8 PTS/36, 11.6 REB/36, 1.9 BLK/36 on 0.564 FG% with a PER of 18.1 and a TRB% of 20.0. How many starting centers topped those numbers last season. I guarantee it wasn't more than half of them (actually, only one starting center, Dwight Howard, opeed all those numbers).

So, even if Oden's per minute production doesn't improve one bit, if he can cut down on the fouls enough to stay in the game for > 30 MPG, he's already an above average starting center. The good news is, his per minute production will improve as he regains his explosiveness, his lateral quickness, and his confidence. It will also improve with experience (as it would with any young player). So, look for both his minutes and his per minute production to both go up. If they do, he won't be just an above average starting center, he will be one of the best centers in the league.

BNM

 

[mgb]

Injuries is the only thing that worries me about Oden. If he stays healthy he's going to be a dominant center. He just needs a little time.

 

[Idog1976]

I love Greg...cheer for him every game...was excited when we drafted him..etc. I just think it's a stretch to say that he looks like he'll be "a star down the line." I'd be happy at this point to see him actually become an above average starting center.

He is above average! He had a PER of 18 in limited minutes with injury problems coming off of microfracture. He led the NBA in Offensive Rebounding Rate.

I have to quote what Norkstroll said on Blazersedge awhile back:

Greg Oden, the next Robert Parish (or someone of that second tier of superstars)
The only other rookie with more than 500 points, 400 rebounds, and 65 blocks in under 1400 minutes played. Since 1946. And he ended up in the HOF, 4x NBA champion, 9x NBA All-Star.

And Parish also had initial foul problems that he got under control: Starting out with 5.8 per 36 minutes, he slowly got that down (5.3, 4.5, 4.2, 4.9, 3.3, and then it hovered around 3 for the rest of his long career) while playing more and more minutes. It’s disappointing that Greg had this problem keeping him from getting more playing time, but that is entirely fixable with speed coming back and awareness improving (that year observing the game from the sidelines didn’t amount to much, huh).

Parish started 2 years later in his career, so he won’t show up in Kevin Pelton’s similarity scores yet, but I’m convinced the two are pretty similar. There could turn out to be better comparisons, maybe Greg will be more similar to a Patrick Ewing eventually. But there is no way around this: This man will be special. And he needs to be, as KP1 said. He is the guy that can lead the Blazers from a 50+ win team to the next level especially when it goes hard in the playoffs and you need to get easy baskets inside.

The elephant in the room: We need to get a Greg back in the fall who burns to play competitive basketball. Who has fun on and off the court. That for me is a bigger unknown than any injury concerns regarding his knees. I hope an injury-free offseason can help him to get his mojo back and focus him on the things to come with a positive outlook.

And here's the proofs of the above statement about Oden and Robert Parish.

 

[BlazerWookee]

Blazers ending up #2 would have been the real lottery win.[/QUOTE]
Bullshit. If you think the grapes are sour, go buy yourself some fucking strawberries and quit telling us we need to ignore the sweet, sweet taste of these wonderful grapes just because you think all of us should have bought strawberries.

 

[STOMP]

Serious question. If Oden went through the NBA combine again tomorrow, do you think his results would be anywhere near as stellar? Frankly, I don't.....and don't believe they ever will be. You can't just blame the surgery either.

Do you remember Sabonis when he was Oden's age? I doubt there was a 7' in the world who ran the floor better than he did. The Sabonis we saw in Portland looked more like a tree trunk. It wasn't just injuries either - his physique *changed* as he aged.

Sabonis had a tremendous understanding of how to play the game. As he got stronger and slower (and lost lateral quickness to the achilles injuries), his game and skills evolved to compensate. IMHO, Oden has to prove he is capable of making that same evolution before he can be considered more than just a good, useful player.

(I will now put away my soapbox and run for cover)

good grief... you ought to. Oden = Sabas???

Did the doctors leave gauze in Greg's knee when they performed the MF causing a horrible infection and huge amounts of scar tissue to form? Did Greg age 10 years in the last 2 or is he just 21 y/old? This is goes well beyond your normal glass half empty views. Those recent team USA practices revealed GO running the court with speed and ease that (unfortunately) Arvydas couldn't come anywhere close to as a Blazer. That one catch and spin dunk on baseline highlight was a jaw-dropping explosion of athleticism, yet you're comparing him to a guy that couldn't get a midweek Oregonian under his heals when he elevated and whose running was more of a shuffle?

humble isn't the word I'd use to describe your opinion here, but you're welcome to it

STOMP

 

[Idog1976]

good grief... you ought to. Oden = Sabas???

Did the doctors leave gauze in Greg's knee when they performed the MF causing a horrible infection and huge amounts of scar tissue to form? Did Greg age 10 years in the last 2 or is he just 21 y/old? This is goes well beyond your normal glass half empty views. Those recent team USA practices revealed GO running the court with speed and ease that (unfortunately) Arvydas couldn't come anywhere close to as a Blazer. That one catch and spin dunk on baseline highlight was a jaw-dropping explosion of athleticism, yet you're comparing him to a guy that couldn't get a midweek Oregonian under his heals when he elevated and whose running was more of a shuffle?

humble isn't the word I'd use to describe your opinion here, but you're welcome to it

STOMP

Questions STOMP can you link that video with the turn around dunk and tell me the minute mark? I'm a glass 2/3rds full kind of guy when it comes to Oden. Love him and look for confirmation biais to help me further my pre-determined narrative. Seriously though I always like more evindence that "The rumors of Oden's game dying has been greatly exaggerated"

Thanks in advance.

 

[STOMP]

Questions STOMP can you link that video with the turn around dunk and tell me the minute mark? I'm a glass 2/3rds full kind of guy when it comes to Oden. Love him and look for confirmation biais to help me further my pre-determined narrative. Seriously though I always like more evindence that "The rumors of Oden's game dying has been greatly exaggerated"

Thanks in advance.

no problem, here's the link

for some reason this video doesn't give me a minute ticker to be able to tell you exactly when to look for it or let me advance it, but the specific play happens about 2/3rds of the way in. I don't know how anyone could look at any of that video and be reminded of Sabas. I especially liked him anchoring the D getting stop after stop... he's grabbing boards, loose balls, and contesting/blocking a lot of shots. Dude looks very athletic

STOMP

 

[mgb]

Here's the youtube of it.



It's about 5:20 in.

But also look at 3:20 when he contests a jumper, turns around and leaps for the rebound. Look how high he gets off the ground.

 

[Idog1976]

Here's the youtube of it.



It's about 5:20 in.

But also look at 3:20 when he contests a jumper, turns around and leaps for the rebound. Look how high he gets off the ground.

Thanks STOMP and mgb! Yeah that dunk at 5:20 is pretty damn beasty and he got WAY up for that rebound. I don't foresee to many rim checks next year. I wish they had caught more blocks on tape.