Series Over?

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KingSpeed said:
If they lose Game 3 and win Game 4, anything can happen too.
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Lets put it this way. If they lose game 3 and they win both game 4 and 5 then i will agree that anything can indeed happen. I am not giving up hope yet. That just is not the way this game works. But if they fall tonight??? No team has come back to win after losing the first three. Teams up 3-0 are a perfect 119-0 when it comes to who advances. Only three times has a team been able to even force a Game 7. The last time it happened was in 2003.

There is quite a bit of difference to the results I found for those with a 2-0 series lead. Those clubs only managed to cover the spread at a 44.3% clip in Game 3. With a 3-0 series lead, they are an impressive 34-23-3 (59.6%) ATS.
I personally wasn’t all that surprised to see this result. When you are down 0-2, you still have a realistic chance of making it a series if you can win Game 3.

The Blazers are going to put everything they have into that game. If they do that and come out on the losing end, it’s not going to be easy to bounce back with that same kind of effort in Game 4. This is why it's imperative to win tonight. You also have to take into consideration that when a team takes a 3-0 lead, they are clearly the better side. They also get a boost of energy knowing they can close things out and rest up before the next round starts. We all know the Warriors will be looking to close out the Spurs ASAP. If the Pels win tonight they most certainly will be looking for a sweep so they can be just as well rested.

Where the data i'm looking at gets murky is the fact that the Blazers were the higher seed. When the sweep is by the 1st, 2nd or 3rd seed team it's pretty clear that even a 2-0 lead is a huge advantage. It has never happened that a #8 seed swept a #1 or a #7 swept a #2. There have been upsets where the lower seed won the series but Sweeps????

If the Blazers do indeed get swept in this series it will go down as one of the biggest upsets ever in the history of the game. That is why i am going to go with them winning at least one game. Hopefully it will be tonight. The thing is the pressure is truly on the Blazers to perform.
 
kjironman1 said:
Lets put it this way. If they lose game 3 and they win both game 4 and 5 then i will agree that anything can indeed happen. I am not giving up hope yet. That just is not the way this game works. But if they fall tonight??? No team has come back to win after losing the first three. Teams up 3-0 are a perfect 119-0 when it comes to who advances. Only three times has a team been able to even force a Game 7. The last time it happened was in 2003.

There is quite a bit of difference to the results I found for those with a 2-0 series lead. Those clubs only managed to cover the spread at a 44.3% clip in Game 3. With a 3-0 series lead, they are an impressive 34-23-3 (59.6%) ATS.
I personally wasn’t all that surprised to see this result. When you are down 0-2, you still have a realistic chance of making it a series if you can win Game 3.

The Blazers are going to put everything they have into that game. If they do that and come out on the losing end, it’s not going to be easy to bounce back with that same kind of effort in Game 4. This is why it's imperative to win tonight. You also have to take into consideration that when a team takes a 3-0 lead, they are clearly the better side. They also get a boost of energy knowing they can close things out and rest up before the next round starts. We all know the Warriors will be looking to close out the Spurs ASAP. If the Pels win tonight they most certainly will be looking for a sweep so they can be just as well rested.

Where the data i'm looking at gets murky is the fact that the Blazers were the higher seed. When the sweep is by the 1st, 2nd or 3rd seed team it's pretty clear that even a 2-0 lead is a huge advantage. It has never happened that a #8 seed swept a #1 or a #7 swept a #2. There have been upsets where the lower seed won the series but Sweeps????

If the Blazers do indeed get swept in this series it will go down as one of the biggest upsets ever in the history of the game. That is why i am going to go with them winning at least one game. Hopefully it will be tonight. The thing is the pressure is truly on the Blazers to perform.
Click to expand...

Are you serious? It wouldn't be an upset let alone a big upset. They won one less game than us.

And as for 119-0, that stat has no bearing on what we can accomplish. And if you agree that you think we're in it if we lose Game 3 but win games 4 & 5, well then tonight isn't must win.
 
KingSpeed said:
Are you serious? It wouldn't be an upset let alone a big upset. They won one less game than us.

And as for 119-0, that stat has no bearing on what we can accomplish. And if you agree that you think we're in it if we lose Game 3 but win games 4 & 5, well then tonight isn't must win.
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But as far as a #6 sweeping a 3rd seed it would be one of the biggest upsets ever. We are talking about the Blazers getting swept in the first round. Not just getting beat but swept.
I personally don't think it will happen at least i hope not.
 
KingSpeed said:
Are you serious? It wouldn't be an upset let alone a big upset. They won one less game than us.

And as for 119-0, that stat has no bearing on what we can accomplish. And if you agree that you think we're in it if we lose Game 3 but win games 4 & 5, well then tonight isn't must win.
Click to expand...

That is just crazy talk. But you are known for your emphatic enthusiasm. Not gonna try to argue with you on this. Tonight is a must win game IMO. If they lose it this series is all but over.
 
kjironman1 said:
That is just crazy talk. But you are known for your emphatic enthusiasm. Not gonna try to argue with you on this. Tonight is a must win game IMO. If they lose it this series is all but over.
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If this was a Best of 5, then yes, the series would be over. Ask the Yankees how over their World Series was when they took a 3-0 lead over the cursed Boston Red Sox.
 
KingSpeed said:
If this was a Best of 5, then yes, the series would be over. Ask the Yankees how over their World Series was when they took a 3-0 lead over the cursed Boston Red Sox.
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Baseball??? You actually came back with Baseball?
Like i said. You are quite know for your emphatic enthusiasm. Possibly the biggest fanatic out there. So i will not argue this point with you. IMO tonight is absolutely a must win game.
 
DDolla said:
just your honest opinion and I know we are all Die hard Blazers fans. Is series over? I said yes, Pels in 6 and I want to be so wrong and eat crow but I think it’s over.
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I'm not even reading any responses to this thread before responding

They're better than us
 
Nikolokolus said:
So you're saying it's over then?
Click to expand...

No. I'm not hopeful, but the coaching staff would have to quickly evolve from their "just gotta make shots" shit, and perhaps find and exploit a mismatch on offense, or come up with some junk defense that the Pelicans are susceptible to or something, I don't know man. I did see a fat lady on the MAX today.

EDIT: spelling
 
Last edited:
GriLtCheeZ said:
No. I'm not hopeful, but the coaching staff would have to quickly evolve from their "just gotta make shots" shit, and perhaps find and exploit a mismatch on offense, or some up with some junk defense that the Pelicans are susceptible to or something, I don't know man. I did see a fat lady on the MAX today.
Click to expand...
Was she singing?
 
GriLtCheeZ said:
No. I'm not hopeful, but the coaching staff would have to quickly evolve from their "just gotta make shots" shit, and perhaps find and exploit a mismatch on offense, or come up with some junk defense that the Pelicans are susceptible to or something, I don't know man. I did see a fat lady on the MAX today.

EDIT: spelling
Click to expand...
Plenty of those to go around.
 
kjironman1 said:
Lets put it this way. If they lose game 3 and they win both game 4 and 5 then i will agree that anything can indeed happen. I am not giving up hope yet. That just is not the way this game works. But if they fall tonight??? No team has come back to win after losing the first three. Teams up 3-0 are a perfect 119-0 when it comes to who advances. Only three times has a team been able to even force a Game 7. The last time it happened was in 2003.

There is quite a bit of difference to the results I found for those with a 2-0 series lead. Those clubs only managed to cover the spread at a 44.3% clip in Game 3. With a 3-0 series lead, they are an impressive 34-23-3 (59.6%) ATS.
I personally wasn’t all that surprised to see this result. When you are down 0-2, you still have a realistic chance of making it a series if you can win Game 3.

The Blazers are going to put everything they have into that game. If they do that and come out on the losing end, it’s not going to be easy to bounce back with that same kind of effort in Game 4. This is why it's imperative to win tonight. You also have to take into consideration that when a team takes a 3-0 lead, they are clearly the better side. They also get a boost of energy knowing they can close things out and rest up before the next round starts. We all know the Warriors will be looking to close out the Spurs ASAP. If the Pels win tonight they most certainly will be looking for a sweep so they can be just as well rested.

Where the data i'm looking at gets murky is the fact that the Blazers were the higher seed. When the sweep is by the 1st, 2nd or 3rd seed team it's pretty clear that even a 2-0 lead is a huge advantage. It has never happened that a #8 seed swept a #1 or a #7 swept a #2. There have been upsets where the lower seed won the series but Sweeps????

If the Blazers do indeed get swept in this series it will go down as one of the biggest upsets ever in the history of the game. That is why i am going to go with them winning at least one game. Hopefully it will be tonight. The thing is the pressure is truly on the Blazers to perform.
Click to expand...
If they lose game 3 and win games 4 and 5 then that game 5 win better be by a big margin.
 
True story (second of the day): me and my similarly old buddy "Old School" were down 2-0 to a pair of young punks in the local gym this afternoon and then we reeled off 4 straight wins. So there's hope!
 
Further inspiration:



Holy shit - THAT'S what Cedric Ceballos looks like now? Fuck.
 
Yeah, series over. Might as well go stand on a chair and hang yourself.

Before you do, how about give me the key to your safe deposit box since you won't be needing it.
 
Lanny said:
If they lose game 3 and win games 4 and 5 then that game 5 win better be by a big margin.
Click to expand...
Honestly i don't really care what the margin is. A win is a win at this point. But i agree the bigger the better. If the series get to the point where they are 3-2 with two games left? I would be pretty happy.
 
When we win, all of us can relax..........tumblr_m9ko6znHgA1qgzsm6o6_500.gif
 
yuyuza1 said:
What solutions do you have to free up Dame? Cuz I don't see any. Maybe running pick and rolls higher? Screening w cj? Stop running a p&r altogether?

Unless there's a viable solution, we're done.
Click to expand...

That's kinda the way I see it. Exactly how are we going to turn it around? Is notably streaky shooter, CJ, gonna get super hot for 4 of next 5 games? I guess it could happen. Is Holiday going to cool off? He's getting a lot of high percentage looks, so his performance so far doesn't seem inflated, and I find it unlikely he'll cool off. With Harkless back, we'll settle back into our winning streak rotation, and assume our prior dominance. Maybe, Harkless certainly did a lot of good Harkless things the other night. Will Mirotic cool off? Maybe that's our best hope? They'll struggle to find a third scorer for 4 out of 5 games and we'll pounce.
 
We can free up Dame by:
- Having him off the ball and running off screens - Having him run off of off-ball screens. Instead of running a pick n roll from the top, why don't we have him curl off of a screen towards the elbow, catch a pass from the top, and have the big (screen setter) roll baseline? Or run some variations of that from different spots on the court? It's a lot easier to double high pick n rolls than an off-ball curl. And there's actually a chance Dame could be open for a shot coming
- Running some dribble hand-off from the 2-4 spots to Dame - Running Dame off of dribble hand-offs (which can act like screens) makes sense, but keep it between guys that Davis isn't guarding. Yes, Rondo and Holiday are switchable, but who else do they have at the 2-4 spots? Mirotic? Moore? Hill? Miller? If NOP switches, let Dame ISO those guys to death. He can score easily against those dudes.
- ISO Dame more - Why does everything have to be high pick n roll? Let Dame build a rhythm in isolation. Let Dame iso with a properly spaced floor which allows him to make the right pass depending on which defender helps. Iso Dame early in the possession so that we have time to move the ball, and play off Dame's initial breakdown of the defense.. It's easier to read the floor with one defender on you at the top of the floor while standing still than it is to read the floor coming off a pick n roll into a hard trap.
- Set double-sided pick n rolls with a wing and big - This would allow Dame to start to use one screen, bring up the trapping big, reject that screen and go off the other one, causing the defense confusion. The big rolls, the wing pops, the other 2 players space in the corners to FT-Line Extended... We could run this with two guards if we have Aminu and Collins in to space in the corners (where they shoot well from), so that we don't have Davis trapping. This could cause switches that we could exploit, and we could run some exotic combinations of pick n flares (Say Dame goes right, the guy screening to his right would flare of the guy screening to Dame's left, and the guy setting the flare screen could then cut or pop behind Dame). Pick n flares would be deadly with 3-gaurd lineups (which will be used tonight due to Turner's injury). They could be defended with switching which would be likely due to New Orleans personnel, but as I stated in option 2, if we got one of Moore, Mirotic, Miller, or Hill on Dame, then Dame would have the advantage in isolation.

I like Aminu at C guarding Davis. Aminu shot very well last game, and has done a solid job on Davis defensively. These ideas would work GREAT if Aminu was able to keep Anthony Davis from fully committing to help-side defense by making Davis and the Pelicans pay with Chief 3s if AD does fully commit.

IDK man... I just don't understand why I can think of so many different things we can try but it seems like Stotts can't...
There's many other ways to free Dame up. How many will Stotts try? Will Stotts make the adjustments that are necessary?
 
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