Should the Blazers Even Want Their First-round Pick?

[drexlersdad]

Ya he is. He looks absolutely lost, and has added virtually nothing to our defense. He seems to rebound well though, and has a nice jumper

he has a great ortg/drtg, in fact, the highest ortg of any rookie in the league

http://www.basketball-reference.com...c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=off_rtg

 

[Nikolokolus]

our bench is the sum of these kind of picks.

Player and draft position:
Babbitt: 16th overall
Barton: 40th overall
Claver: 22nd overall
Freeland: 30th overall
Jeffries: 11th overall (end of his career was once a useful rotation level player)
Leonard: 11th overall
Pavlovic: 19th overall
Price: undrafted rookie free agent
Smith: 21st overall
Williams: 22nd overall.

So show me again where we're brimming with lotto picks on the bench?

 

[Mediocre Man]

he has a great ortg/drtg, in fact, the highest ortg of any rookie in the league

http://www.basketball-reference.com...c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=off_rtg

Yes, I have seen the stats. I see what I see. He hasn't looked good at all as of late, and looked ok at best earlier

 

[RR7]

Yes, I have seen the stats. I see what I see. He hasn't looked good at all as of late, and looked ok at best earlier

So you use stats when it fits the Hickson is a negative to the team's rebounding, when the eye test wouldn't give that up, but go eye test when stats don't back the narrative?

 

[drexlersdad]

Yes, I have seen the stats. I see what I see. He hasn't looked good at all as of late, and looked ok at best earlier

ahh, the eye test



whats pizza guy think?

 

[Mediocre Man]

So you use stats when it fits the Hickson is a negative to the team's rebounding, when the eye test wouldn't give that up, but go eye test when stats don't back the narrative?

Not at all. Happy to use stats that matter. According to the ones DD just posted, he is better than Lillard, so there you go, a STEAL at 11

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

He could turn our to be the best center in the league. And the only reason I bring anything up is if the subject allows it.

We talked about the 12th pick and our bench, and someone brought up Leonard

I know. It's just I find it funny that you're so intent on labeling him a bust so quickly. Everyone has their own opinion. But considering his athelticism and the things he does currently bring to the tabel.... I guess I'm shocked people are so quick to write him off. That's all.

 

[Mediocre Man]

ahh, the eye test



whats pizza guy think?

Pizza guy loves his athleticism, thinks he is a mental midget who will take years to mature

 

[Mediocre Man]

I know. It's just I find it funny that you're so intent on labeling him a bust so quickly. Everyone has their own opinion. But considering his athelticism and the things he does currently bring to the tabel.... I guess I'm shocked people are so quick to write him off. That's all.

It's just me, not people. I have no reason for it either, and I really hope he makes me eat crow

 

[BLAZINGGIANTS]

It's just me, not people. I have no reason for it either, and I really hope he makes me eat crow

Nah, there's a few other people who believe the same.

And of course you want to eat crow. Cuz if you do, it means something good for the Blazers.

Just like I someday hope to eat crow regarding my thoughts on Babbitt. While he's had some meaningful moments for Portland..... I'm not sold he'll ever amount to anything other than a streaky, 3 point threat. Of course, Babbitt will likely be gone in a year, so if he does blow up, it probably won't be here.

 

[drexlersdad]

in the history of basketball, 20 year old pure centers...

http://www.basketball-reference.com...tat=&c5comp=gt&c6mult=1.0&c6stat=&order_by=ws

 

[EL PRESIDENTE]

Player and draft position:
Babbitt: 16th overall
Barton: 40th overall
Claver: 22nd overall
Freeland: 30th overall
Jeffries: 11th overall (end of his career was once a useful rotation level player)
Leonard: 11th overall
Pavlovic: 19th overall
Price: undrafted rookie free agent
Smith: 21st overall
Williams: 22nd overall.

So show me again where we're brimming with lotto picks on the bench?

anything outside the top 3 are usually not impact players. Anything outside the top 10 are out of the league within a few years or are bench scrubs/journeyment.

All accounts are this is a weak draft anyway. If we're going to lose the pick, might as well do it now.

 

[MickZagger]

Leonard was a shitty pick though

You're gonna have a whole lot of pie on your face in a couple years.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I'm not as down on Leonard as MM, but he really does look lost out there ... like he's an athlete and not really a basketball player. I wonder if frequent trips to the D-league could help him? But at a minimum he's got to get with some kind of big man coach in the summer and put in thousands of reps in different situations and play in as many organized pick-up games as possible, because teams just don't scrimmage or practice all that much once the season starts and he's got a long ways to go.

However, I love his athleticism and his mechanics when he shoots, that's something to build on.

 

[Sedatedfork]

I don't think we will have our pick anyway.

 

[Nikolokolus]

anything outside the top 3 are usually not impact players. Anything outside the top 10 are out of the league within a few years or are bench scrubs/journeyment.

All accounts are this is a weak draft anyway. If we're going to lose the pick, might as well do it now.

Well I don't think we're looking for a franchise player, we're looking for a possible starter or solid bench player.

But you do make me wonder what the bust rate on guys actually is for those picked between 4-14.

 

[magnifier661]

The team needs help period, veteran or otherwise.

Certainly, there's no guarantee a lottery pick can contribute, but at 1.7 million per year that's not a lot to pay for a guy who might at least turn into an underpaid asset for a trade down the line. The veteran's minimum is always going to be there to round out the roster and I somehow doubt that the Blazers are going to get a truly elite (near) max money free agent to sign here. The opportunity cost of losing that 1.5ish million for free agency doesn't seem that high.

Wasn't hibbert going to sign the offer sheet? That's pretty much a max player yes?

 

[magnifier661]

Well I think that making the playoffs are important so losing the pick goes with that possibility. I think if the blazers can find a deal that can get us there this year; we should take it.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Wasn't hibbert going to sign the offer sheet? That's pretty much a max player yes?

Yes ... but is he "truly elite?" The Blazers were willing to overpay to get him, but that didn't really make him worth all of that money. (For the record I was OK with the offer sheet because I thought he'd fit in pretty well with the rest of the team even if he wasn't necessarily a great value.)

 

[Nikolokolus]

Well I think that making the playoffs are important so losing the pick goes with that possibility. I think if the blazers can find a deal that can get us there this year; we should take it.

There's not enough trade assets to push us from potential playoff team to definite playoff team.

 

[magnifier661]

Yes ... but is he "truly elite?" The Blazers were willing to overpay to get him, but that didn't really make him worth all of that money. (For the record I was OK with the offer sheet because I thought he'd fit in pretty well with the rest of the team even if he wasn't necessarily a great value.)

Yeah but do we really need an elite player or a couple really good roles players. I'm looking at free agent signings years ago that would be like battie or Landry. Obviously not them now; but you get the point. Players that take a 5-7 mil per contract.

 

[PapaG]

Player and draft position:
Babbitt: 16th overall
Barton: 40th overall
Claver: 22nd overall
Freeland: 30th overall
Jeffries: 11th overall (end of his career was once a useful rotation level player)
Leonard: 11th overall
Pavlovic: 19th overall
Price: undrafted rookie free agent
Smith: 21st overall
Williams: 22nd overall.

So show me again where we're brimming with lotto picks on the bench?

I read it as El Prez saying the Blazer bench is full of low-lotto/non-lotto picks.

 

[magnifier661]

There's not enough trade assets to push us from potential playoff team to definite playoff team.

I was thinking maybe the youth of Leonard and value of Matthews. Either it be a solid upgrade defensively or scoring off the bench. Then maybe move batum at sg

 

[Nikolokolus]

I read it as El Prez saying the Blazer bench is full of low-lotto/non-lotto picks.

If that was his point then I'm not sure how it applies to our draft this year? All we're capable of getting is a guy from 1-12.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I was thinking maybe the youth of Leonard and value of Matthews. Either it be a solid upgrade defensively or scoring off the bench. Then maybe move batum at sg

Who though and does this incoming player (or players) offset the loss of Wesley's floor spacing in the starting unit (especially with Nic nursing a bad wrist and unable/unwilling to shoot)? Seems like we might see a lateral move at best, certainly not enough impact players to turn us into a lock for 46 wins.

 

[PapaG]

If that was his point then I'm not sure how it applies to our draft this year? All we're capable of getting is a guy from 1-12.

Point being that those who seem so convinced that a 12th pick is going to be an impact player who improves the team next year are most likely off on their assessment, based on the rookie seasons of players drafted in a similar spot, and even going on in their career.

 

[Blazinaway]

Seems silly to take them for anything other than my ignorant opinion, but, ok?

just havin fun amigo, hopefilly in a few years at your expense, and if U R the Blazer fan I think U R I am sure you would love to have your opinion be wrong big time

 

[magnifier661]

Who though and does this incoming player (or players) offset the loss of Wesley's floor spacing in the starting unit (especially with Nic nursing a bad wrist and unable/unwilling to shoot)? Seems like we might see a lateral move at best, certainly not enough impact players to turn us into a lock for 46 wins.

Well I'm hoping we could find more of an inside defensive minded player. I don't even if any are available though

 

[Nikolokolus]

Point being that those who seem so convinced that a 12th pick is going to be an impact player who improves the team next year are most likely off on their assessment, based on the rookie seasons of players drafted in a similar spot, and even going on in their career.

There's never a guarantee and the chance might even be just 1 in 4 that they get a guy who can really play, but I don't see the opportunity cost of that's pick's salary really hurting this team's chances of getting the kind of player(s) that they need to acquire in the off-season.

But who knows, there's no way to know for sure if the pick will be worth it or not. I'm just trying to look at this from a risk-reward perspective: not much risked (or lost) using the pick (or trading the player that you pick) versus the amount of cap-room that it would free up by surrendering the pick.

 

[Harry's Raincoat]

Back to the first question........

Yes, ideally you'd want the team to get its own draft choice under #15 (non-playoffs). Contract is long and cheap.
But, we have 6 rookies on the roster now. I think we can do just as well with smaller contract FA's this summer to fill in gaps.
Olshey is a salesman - to agents and players - and will get us opportunities with players like Hibbert, Crawford, etc. going forward. We'll shoot high first though.