Silver Linings

[BlazerCaravan]

TL;DR: The sky might be falling, but it's falling on the roof of a house that can withstand it. Looking at four of our young guys compared to four of our starters from the 2010 team in their younger years, I hope to assuage doubts (your and my own) that we have any hope.

There is hope.

Our young guys have quite a bit of potential that might be more fully realized if we move away from a win-now scenario and move into another win when we're ready scenario.

http://bkref.com/tiny/SLk31

This is a comparison of rookie year LaMarcus and this year's Meyers Leonard. It should (a) give you an idea of how far LaMarcus grew, and (b) how far Leonard could grow. Remember that LA his rookie year had basically no footwork, was slow making decisions with the ball, and had a poor outside game.

http://bkref.com/tiny/fMzvn

This is a comparison of second year Brandon Roy and current year Damian Lillard. Where Meyers is basically a year behind LaMarcus in development, Damian is about half a year behind. There is still room for Lillard to grow (we haven't reached his ceiling, even if his ceiling might be below Roy's 2008-09 season, ultimately).

http://bkref.com/tiny/scrhA

This is a comparison of current year CJ McCollum and rookie year Wesley Matthews. These two years show the player at the same age, getting the feel for the game. While this takes into account CJ's bad start for the first half of the season, his second half was so good that it actually puts him in the conversation here. CJ shoots as well as Wes from three, and his Defensive Win Share Per Minute (which you need to use your own calculator to find) is actually slightly better than Wesley's.

http://bkref.com/tiny/9yQyQ

This is a comparison of current year Allen Crabbe and rookie year Nicolas Batum. Again, Defensive Win Shares Per Minutes is comparable to Nic, though rebounding and two-point shooting make Allen less efficient than Nic overall. Three point shooting is comparable though. For three-and-D purposes, these two players are interchangable right now.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Some interesting analysis there.

Is it bad that I am less offended by the Leonard/LMA comparison than by comparing Dame to Roy? I can't imagine Roy (pre-knee implosion) playing as bad as Dame is now.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Some interesting analysis there.

Is it bad that I am less offended by the Leonard/LMA comparison than by comparing Dame to Roy? I can't imagine Roy (pre-knee implosion) playing as bad as Dame is now.

Maybe this is why:

Last night, LaMarcus Aldridge played 42 minutes and got a 23.9 PER... Meyers Leonard played 16 minutes and got a 23.8 PER.

Lillard's PER last night was 3.5.

 

[PDXFonz]

Maybe this is why:

Last night, LaMarcus Aldridge played 42 minutes and got a 23.9 PER... Meyers Leonard played 16 minutes and got a 23.8 PER.

Lillard's PER last night was 3.5.

Send him to the D-League.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Send him to the D-League.

LOL

It's abysmal, but it's just one game.

 

[Draco]

Last game really showed me how inferior Lillard is to what Roy was. Roy was unstoppable isolated 1 on 1 and could get a layup, foul, or great shot for a teammate any time he wanted. Lillard is solid but you can't depend on him to create offense against good defense. Saw it in last years playoffs against the Spurs who were far better than the terrible Rockets perimeter D.

Roy was great in the playoff series against Houston in his one and only healthy playoff series. Damian took terrible shots last night and while yes I expect him to play better he needs multiple teammates to put pressure on the defense or he needs to play against bad opposition defense. It's becoming very evident why Lillard was the 3rd choice all star alternate. He's just an average starting PG; which is very solid in today's NBA but nothing that can elevate a team against good competition in the playoffs.

 

[BBert]

Maybe this is why:

Last night, LaMarcus Aldridge played 42 minutes and got a 23.9 PER... Meyers Leonard played 16 minutes and got a 23.8 PER.

Lillard's PER last night was 3.5.

Meyer3 LeMon3ter!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

There have ben at least 20 Blazer playoff guard performances worse than Lillard's last night.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Tgsfs

Note that two are from Terry Porter.

 

[BBert]

There have ben at least 20 Blazer playoff guard performances worse than Lillard's last night.

http://bkref.com/tiny/Tgsfs

Note that two are from Terry Porter.

Hahaha! $amon is on that list 8 times! Hahahahaha!

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Hahaha! $amon is on that list 8 times! Hahahahaha!

If you remove the FG% requirement, and just go with Game Score of 4.2 or less, Damon is on there 17 times.

 

[Draco]

Some interesting analysis there.

Is it bad that I am less offended by the Leonard/LMA comparison than by comparing Dame to Roy? I can't imagine Roy (pre-knee implosion) playing as bad as Dame is now.

Agreed. Roy had the opposition focusing all their defensive attention on him and still managed quality shots for himself and teammates. He lead an offense more efficient than any team this season right up there with the Steve Nash era Suns. Lillard is a slightly above average NBA PG who is bad on defense. He is a clear step below CP3, Curry, Wall, Irving, Westbrook. Last night a hobbled Mike Conley with one foot handily outplayed him. He won't have crappy defenders such as Jeremy Lin, James Harden and Chandler Parsons giving him wide open looks this series.

 

[BBert]

If you remove the FG% requirement, and just go with Game Score of 4.2 or less, Damon is on there 17 times.

Gah-hahahaha! Cough. Cough. Hahaha! I hated Jason Quick's little butt buddy.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

Like Meyers Leonard, I think it's wise to give Dame the entirety of his rookie contract before making a summary judgment, but we are starting to see his ceiling, which is something we never really saw with Roy.

 

[dviss1]

Last game really showed me how inferior Lillard is to what Roy was. Roy was unstoppable isolated 1 on 1 and could get a layup, foul, or great shot for a teammate any time he wanted. Lillard is solid but you can't depend on him to create offense against good defense. Saw it in last years playoffs against the Spurs who were far better than the terrible Rockets perimeter D.

Roy was great in the playoff series against Houston in his one and only healthy playoff series. Damian took terrible shots last night and while yes I expect him to play better he needs multiple teammates to put pressure on the defense or he needs to play against bad opposition defense. It's becoming very evident why Lillard was the 3rd choice all star alternate. He's just an average starting PG; which is very solid in today's NBA but nothing that can elevate a team against good competition in the playoffs.

Lillard was great in the playoff series against Houston. Did you actually watch it? Because he did "elevate a team against good competition in the playoffs"....

 

[e_blazer]

Dame has a donut hole in his game. He nearly always shoots a three or drives to the basket. Memphis was keying on both of those options yesterday. Seems to me that he needs to take a look at what Udrih was doing yesterday and look for more mid-range shots.

 

[MarAzul]

Dame has a donut hole in his game. He nearly always shoots a three or drives to the basket. Memphis was keying on both of those options yesterday. Seems to me that he needs to take a look at what Udrih was doing yesterday and look for more mid-range shots.

Nice of you to notice. I sure wish his coach would.

 

[e_blazer]

Nice of you to notice. I sure wish his coach would.

Pretty sure that Stotts is way more aware of what was going on than I, you, or any other of the folks on this board.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

Dame has a donut hole in his game. He nearly always shoots a three or drives to the basket. Memphis was keying on both of those options yesterday. Seems to me that he needs to take a look at what Udrih was doing yesterday and look for more mid-range shots.

That is on purpose on his behalf because it is the least efficient shot in basketball. Dame needs to work on it. But in practice first. Not in a game.

 

[oldmangrouch]

Nice of you to notice. I sure wish his coach would.

Welcome to today's NBA. The current "conventional wisdom" is that every shot is supposed to be within 10' of the hoop, or from beyond the arc. The mid-range jumper is supposedly the worst type of shot there is.

Stat-rats will staunchly defend this point of view....but I would find it more convincing if the "dunk or trey" mindset didn't jibe so nicely with the "Sportscenter highlight" mindset. Call me a cynic.

 

[Sean.ivity]

TL;DR: The sky might be falling, but it's falling on the roof of a house that can withstand it. Looking at four of our young guys compared to four of our starters from the 2010 team in their younger years, I hope to assuage doubts (your and my own) that we have any hope.

There is hope.

Our young guys have quite a bit of potential that might be more fully realized if we move away from a win-now scenario and move into another win when we're ready scenario.

http://bkref.com/tiny/SLk31

This is a comparison of rookie year LaMarcus and this year's Meyers Leonard. It should (a) give you an idea of how far LaMarcus grew, and (b) how far Leonard could grow. Remember that LA his rookie year had basically no footwork, was slow making decisions with the ball, and had a poor outside game.

http://bkref.com/tiny/fMzvn

This is a comparison of second year Brandon Roy and current year Damian Lillard. Where Meyers is basically a year behind LaMarcus in development, Damian is about half a year behind. There is still room for Lillard to grow (we haven't reached his ceiling, even if his ceiling might be below Roy's 2008-09 season, ultimately).

http://bkref.com/tiny/scrhA

This is a comparison of current year CJ McCollum and rookie year Wesley Matthews. These two years show the player at the same age, getting the feel for the game. While this takes into account CJ's bad start for the first half of the season, his second half was so good that it actually puts him in the conversation here. CJ shoots as well as Wes from three, and his Defensive Win Share Per Minute (which you need to use your own calculator to find) is actually slightly better than Wesley's.

http://bkref.com/tiny/9yQyQ

This is a comparison of current year Allen Crabbe and rookie year Nicolas Batum. Again, Defensive Win Shares Per Minutes is comparable to Nic, though rebounding and two-point shooting make Allen less efficient than Nic overall. Three point shooting is comparable though. For three-and-D purposes, these two players are interchangable right now.

 

[e_blazer]

That is on purpose on his behalf because it is the least efficient shot in basketball. Dame needs to work on it. But in practice first. Not in a game.

I'll bet that Memphis really gave Beno a talking to about those 20 inefficient points he scored yesterday.

Nothing personal, but good lord, that "least efficient shot in basketball" is tired, old and stupid. All of the great point guards use the mid-range game to open up the other shots in their arsenal.

 

[BBert]

Dame has a donut hole in his game. He nearly always shoots a three or drives to the basket. Memphis was keying on both of those options yesterday. Seems to me that he needs to take a look at what Udrih was doing yesterday and look for more mid-range shots.

I think about this often actually, and I thought about it last night. Dame's "floater" isn't very consistent, but his pull-up mid-range shot is money. He just doesn't go to it, opting for threes and drives.

But thinking about it, isn't that Stotts' overriding basketball philosophy, on both sides of the ball: Shoot threes and layups, and make the other team shoot from mid-range? That's why we get killed from mid-range, and maybe why Dame doesn't do it more?

I wish he would, especially because it could get him into a better shooting rhythm for the three ball.

Oh, and two points is better than no points. So there's that.

(Edit: OIC. I guess I was a little late to this observation.)

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

I'll bet that Memphis really gave Beno a talking to about those 20 inefficient points he scored yesterday.

Nothing personal, but good lord, that "least efficient shot in basketball" is tired, old and stupid. All of the great point guards use the mid-range game to open up the other shots in their arsenal.

This is true, cp3, Westbrook, Irving and curry all have fantastic pull up 12-15 foot jumpers.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I'll bet that Memphis really gave Beno a talking to about those 20 inefficient points he scored yesterday.

Nothing personal, but good lord, that "least efficient shot in basketball" is tired, old and stupid. All of the great point guards use the mid-range game to open up the other shots in their arsenal.

No worries and no offense. And Dame will be a great one but he isn't there yet. Beno had years to practice that shot and guess what? He was not great at it when he came in the league.

 

[KeepOnRollin]

I think about this often actually, and I thought about it last night. Dame's "floater" isn't very consistent, but his pull-up mid-range shot is money..

Dame's open mid-range shot is deadly but I don't think his pull up jumper is at all at this point. In fact I would say it is one of the weaker parts of his game. Roy was deadly at the pull up jumper but not as good on open jumpers off screens. Dame is about completely opposite. It is good to have things to improve on though.

 

[BBert]

I'll bet that Memphis really gave Beno a talking to about those 20 inefficient points he scored yesterday.

Nothing personal, but good lord, that "least efficient shot in basketball" is tired, old and stupid. All of the great point guards use the mid-range game to open up the other shots in their arsenal.

This whole "least efficient shot in basketball" thing I thought applied to shots within a couple of feet of the three point line, which is usually a low percentage shot (LaMarcus shoots them a bunch). I don't get why some people would apply that to shots that are essentially open free throws, which you and I can make, and oh BTW, so can BeanBoy Udrih.

 

[BBert]

I'm having a bit of a cognitive dissonance problem at the moment though, considering, Stotts thinks mid-range shots are inefficient, but the focal point of his offense is having LaMarcus shoot 20 of them a game? And turn-around contested ones at that? Color me confused.

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

A big silver lining is this team is playing a series against a true playoff style team. This will be a humbling and learning experience for the guys.

Last season we played a rockets team that in all reality like us is a regular season style team, then we played the Spurs who couldn't miss a three if they tried. There wasn't a moment where we could say "they're just far more physical than us".

 

[BlazerDuckSeahawkFan94]

Dame's open mid-range shot is deadly but I don't think his pull up jumper is at all at this point. In fact I would say it is one of the weaker parts of his game. Roy was deadly at the pull up jumper but not as good on open jumpers off screens. Dame is about completely opposite. It is good to have things to improve on though.

Luckily pull up jumpers and floaters are some of the easiest shots to get good at. So much space to work with usually.

 

[blue9]

I think about this often actually, and I thought about it last night. Dame's "floater" isn't very consistent, but his pull-up mid-range shot is money. He just doesn't go to it, opting for threes and drives.

But thinking about it, isn't that Stotts' overriding basketball philosophy, on both sides of the ball: Shoot threes and layups, and make the other team shoot from mid-range? That's why we get killed from mid-range, and maybe why Dame doesn't do it more?

In order to get a good mid-range shot off Dame first needs a good screen. However, he only gets shitty screens so he doesn't have enough space to stop-n-pop - if he did his man would block the shot from behind.