Simons heatcheck

[BonesJones]

Simons is infinitely better as a point guard. To me, it seems obvious that we need to make a decision. Simons is the future of the team. So is Sharpe.

It's crazy because two years ago people said he couldn't play PG at all, but I don't understand saying he's "infinitely better as a point guard". Just seems to be an anti-Dame narrative more than anything.

Ant is one of the best catch-and-shoot shooters in the league (shot 48% last year on catch-and-shoot 3s). I don't understand the notion that he's not great playing off the ball. The team moves the ball a lot more anyway so even the "point" ends up working off the ball a lot of times. Ant got a dunk last game off a Nurkic dime by doing so, and had his easiest 20pt scoring game in a while. Ant got hot against Denver working off the ball. Ant plays PG every minute Dame is off the floor. They interchange while on the court together. The NBA is too skilled to pigeon-hole guys as a "PG" or "Not a PG". The best teams have stars that work well on and off the ball, because a single star can no longer carry a team. Your star(s) have to be able to play off of others because a team-based offense is always much harder to guard than an individually-based one. Teams need two elite defenders to deal with Dame and Ant. But then who do you put on Grant? The team is built really well at the top. Just need the right role players around them.

 

[BonesJones]

I just did this past 7 game stretch that Dame missed from 11/20 to 12/3 on nba.com.

Simons: 29.4 pts, 5.4 asts, 2.7 rebs, 2.4 to, 47.7% FG, 42.3% 3pt, 63% TS 116 ORTG.

He had Steph Curry numbers but the team went 2-5.

I don't necessarily agree that we need to break them apart. Everyone has to sacrifice stats to win and that's what Ant is doing in Dame's presence.

Luka's putting up insane numbers right now because his team sucks and he has to. If he had a better team, he wouldn't put up quite the same numbers and if you just focused on him individually, you could make his better supporting cast to be a bad thing for Luka the player.

 

[Natebishop3]

It's crazy because two years ago people said he couldn't play PG at all, but I don't understand saying he's "infinitely better as a point guard". Just seems to be an anti-Dame narrative more than anything.

Ant is one of the best catch-and-shoot shooters in the league (shot 48% last year on catch-and-shoot 3s). I don't understand the notion that he's not great playing off the ball. The team moves the ball a lot more anyway so even the "point" ends up working off the ball a lot of times. Ant got a dunk last game off a Nurkic dime by doing so, and had his easiest 20pt scoring game in a while. Ant got hot against Denver working off the ball. Ant plays PG every minute Dame is off the floor. They interchange while on the court together. The NBA is too skilled to pigeon-hole guys as a "PG" or "Not a PG". The best teams have stars that work well on and off the ball, because a single star can no longer carry a team. Your star(s) have to be able to play off of others because a team-based offense is always much harder to guard than an individually-based one. Teams need two elite defenders to deal with Dame and Ant. But then who do you put on Grant? The team is built really well at the top. Just need the right role players around them.

Rephrase it as primary ball handler. It's not anti-Dame at all. You don't think the stats back up that Ant is significantly better as a primary ball handler?

 

[RR7]

Rephrase it as primary ball handler. It's not anti-Dame at all. You don't think the stats back up that Ant is significantly better as the primary ball handler?

Anfernee has played 816 minutes this season. 541 have come with Dame off the floor. In those 541 minutes, he has an ORTG of 116.1, USG% of 31.1, TS% of 58.6, eFG% of 54.1, FTR of .235, AST% of 24.9, and a ppp of 1.1.
So in the 275 minutes he has played WITH Dame, ORTG of 115.5USG% of 21.7, TS% of 60.5, eFG% of 58.7, FTR of .113, AST% of 12.9, and PPP of 1.1

I don't think the numbers show he is SIGNIFICANTLY better with Dame off. I think he is a different player with or without Dame, which is a great skill, for him to be able to step in and replicate some of what Dame does for us. It shows he's a better shooter when he's got Dame on the floor alongside him, and takes on more of a PG and attacking role when Dame is off. Obviously his raw scoring numbers will go up with that big of a jump in USG%.

 

[Natebishop3]

Anfernee has played 816 minutes this season. 541 have come with Dame off the floor. In those 541 minutes, he has an ORTG of 116.1, USG% of 31.1, TS% of 58.6, eFG% of 54.1, FTR of .235, AST% of 24.9, and a ppp of 1.1.
So in the 275 minutes he has played WITH Dame, ORTG of 115.5USG% of 21.7, TS% of 60.5, eFG% of 58.7, FTR of .113, AST% of 12.9, and PPP of 1.1

I don't think the numbers show he is SIGNIFICANTLY better with Dame off. I think he is a different player with or without Dame, which is a great skill, for him to be able to step in and replicate some of what Dame does for us. It shows he's a better shooter when he's got Dame on the floor alongside him, and takes on more of a PG and attacking role when Dame is off. Obviously his raw scoring numbers will go up with that big of a jump in USG%.

I don't know if on/off really does it. When he starts at point guard, anecdotally he seems to be in a different head space than when Dame is there.

 

[Tince]

I don't know if on/off really does it. When he starts at point guard, anecdotally he seems to be in a different head space than when Dame is there.

As should anyone with or without the best player on the team on/off the court.

I think when we get to the point where we're trying to determine "head space" through our TV, we're looking a little too hard for things.

 

[RR7]

I don't know if on/off really does it. When he starts at point guard, anecdotally he seems to be in a different head space than when Dame is there.

Ok, then we've gone from the stats show a significant difference to now a head space. I think the stats show that too. He plays as a number 1 when dame is out. He shoots worse when he does that. But he attacks more and gets more points and assists, obviously.

 

[illmatic99]

I don't know if on/off really does it. When he starts at point guard, anecdotally he seems to be in a different head space than when Dame is there.

then that's easily fixable. @RR7 showed hard facts that the team has synergy with both playing. that Ant's individual raw stats are lower with Dame is meaningless if the team is winning. This is true of any successful team with multiple stars on it.

 

[BankTeller]

I thought we've been over this Simons HATES Sharpe! It will never happen.

Yeah I still think that’s a load of bull but believe what you want lol

 

[illmatic99]

I dunno who else caught this but one of Dame's agents set up a dinner celebration for Dame for his top 75 selection today.

Dame's bro posted a bunch of stories with his speech at the dinner and Dame gave a special shoutout to Ant at the end. Said Simons came into the league right when he was getting success and provided Dame someone to pour into and guide, and how it helped Dame get better and not be complacent or bored. Was really introspective to hear that.

Also ended the speech by saying "he's next."

Think we need to listen to Dame. He knows.

 

[BonesJones]

Rephrase it as primary ball handler. It's not anti-Dame at all. You don't think the stats back up that Ant is significantly better as a primary ball handler?

My reply is this:

Luka's putting up insane numbers right now because his team sucks and he has to. If he had a better team, he wouldn't put up quite the same numbers and if you just focused on him individually, you could make his better supporting cast to be a bad thing for Luka the player.

 

[julius]

I thought we've been over this Simons HATES Sharpe! It will never happen.

wait..what?

Is this up there with "Damian drinks like a fish" and that since Damian followed and then unfollowed Sharpe he must not like him in the pantheon of "made up bullshit"?

Or is this poking fun at some nonsense that someone said?

 

[Natebishop3]

As should anyone with or without the best player on the team on/off the court.

I think when we get to the point where we're trying to determine "head space" through our TV, we're looking a little too hard for things.

Ok, then we've gone from the stats show a significant difference to now a head space. I think the stats show that too. He plays as a number 1 when dame is out. He shoots worse when he does that. But he attacks more and gets more points and assists, obviously.

then that's easily fixable. @RR7 showed hard facts that the team has synergy with both playing. that Ant's individual raw stats are lower with Dame is meaningless if the team is winning. This is true of any successful team with multiple stars on it.

Fine. If "head space" doesn't work for you, how about role? When Dame is out, he's the #1 and he plays different.

With Dame (12 games) - 21 ppg, 4 rebounds, 3.41 assists, 7.58-17.66 FG (43%) and 3.66-9.75 threes (37.6%)

Without Dame (10 games) - 28.5 ppg, 3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 10.4-22 FG (47%) and 5-11.7 threes (42.7%)

 

[Shaboid]

 

[SIeepwalker]

wait..what?

Is this up there with "Damian drinks like a fish" and that since Damian followed and then unfollowed Sharpe he must not like him in the pantheon of "made up bullshit"?

Or is this poking fun at some nonsense that someone said?

Basically yes, would be my guess

 

[THE HCP]

So Dame is also freezing out Sharpe it looks like….didn’t even mention him in his speech last night. OH SHIT!

 

[SharpeScooterShooter]

Fine. If "head space" doesn't work for you, how about role? When Dame is out, he's the #1 and he plays different.

With Dame (12 games) - 21 ppg, 4 rebounds, 3.41 assists, 7.58-17.66 FG (43%) and 3.66-9.75 threes (37.6%)

Without Dame (10 games) - 28.5 ppg, 3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 10.4-22 FG (47%) and 5-11.7 threes (42.7%)

There is a simple answer here i bet. How many minutes on average is the ball in ants hand when playing with Dame vs playing without? You didn't include that stat when trying to compare and i think thats a huge relevant factor.

Then combine that with the presumed fact that almost every #2 on a team will score more when the #1 is out and im at a loss as to your complaint.

ive read through this and like many others, im confused by this and why you think this is a “problem”?

its normal to me.

 

[wizenheimer]

There is a simple answer here i bet. How many minutes on average is the ball in ants hand when playing with Dame vs playing without? You didn't include that stat when trying to compare and i think thats a huge relevant factor.

Then combine that with the presumed fact that almost every #2 on a team will score more when the #1 is out and im at a loss as to your complaint.

ive read through this and like many others, im confused by this and why you think this is a “problem”?

its normal to me.

if you come into a discussion about Dame/Ant with a strong bias in favor of trading Dame because you're convinced Dame/Ant won't work, you'll look at these numbers and confirm the bias

problem is that we heard this same distraction and angst about Dame/CJ for years and as it turns out, CJ may very well be worse without Dame than with him. He sure has been in last year's playoffs and this season. The issue here is that all of CJ's inflated numbers when Dame were out were due to usage and the ball in his hands a lot more. He really wasn't more efficient; he just dominated opportunities more because he didn't have to share with a better player

that looks to be the case with Simons

 

[OneSport3]

Ant starting to get some national attention.

https://www.blazersedge.com/2022/12...ta-hawks-bill-simmons-russillo-ringer-podcasy

 

[Natebishop3]

There is a simple answer here i bet. How many minutes on average is the ball in ants hand when playing with Dame vs playing without? You didn't include that stat when trying to compare and i think thats a huge relevant factor.

Then combine that with the presumed fact that almost every #2 on a team will score more when the #1 is out and im at a loss as to your complaint.

ive read through this and like many others, im confused by this and why you think this is a “problem”?

its normal to me.

They play the same position. That's the "problem." Ant is significantly better statistically when he plays point guard.

Ant CAN play shooting guard, but as my stats show, he's not as effective.

It's not a complaint. It's an observation.

 

[Natebishop3]

if you come into a discussion about Dame/Ant with a strong bias in favor of trading Dame because you're convinced Dame/Ant won't work, you'll look at these numbers and confirm the bias

problem is that we heard this same distraction and angst about Dame/CJ for years and as it turns out, CJ may very well be worse without Dame than with him. He sure has been in last year's playoffs and this season. The issue here is that all of CJ's inflated numbers when Dame were out were due to usage and the ball in his hands a lot more. He really wasn't more efficient; he just dominated opportunities more because he didn't have to share with a better player

that looks to be the case with Simons

CJ isn't a point guard.

This is a completely different conversation topic. One topic is whether they can play together. Can they play together? Sure. Is it a backcourt that can win in the playoffs? We don't know yet. There's a whole other thread dedicated to that topic. My point in that other thread was that I don't think Dame/Ant is going to have more success/different results than Dame/CJ. We won't know until this post-season.

The other topic, the one that I'm addressing here, is whether Ant is better as the #1/primary ball handler. I posted some stats. I had to go get those stats because on/off isn't the same thing as strictly looking at games where Dame was out. The rotation changes without Dame. The shot distribution changes without Dame. I wanted to only look at games where Simons was playing point guard without Lillard.

 

[Natebishop3]

There is a simple answer here i bet. How many minutes on average is the ball in ants hand when playing with Dame vs playing without? You didn't include that stat when trying to compare and i think thats a huge relevant factor.

Then combine that with the presumed fact that almost every #2 on a team will score more when the #1 is out and im at a loss as to your complaint.

ive read through this and like many others, im confused by this and why you think this is a “problem”?

its normal to me.

Here you go:

With Dame:
27.11 USG%
16.27 AST%
56.4 TS%

Without Dame:
28.21 USG%
25.41 AST%
61.2 TS%

The USG% is fairly similar, but the guy is just more efficient and a significantly better passer when he's playing point guard.

 

[RR7]

Here you go:

With Dame:
27.11 USG%
16.27 AST%
56.4 TS%

Without Dame:
28.21 USG%
25.41 AST%
61.2 TS%

The USG% is fairly similar, but the guy is just more efficient and a significantly better passer when he's playing point guard.

It seems weird to me to not look at the role he plays when dame plays, but is off the court, and only factoring in games that Dame misses.

 

[Pinwheel1]

They play the same position. That's the "problem." Ant is significantly better statistically when he plays point guard.

Ant CAN play shooting guard, but as my stats show, he's not as effective.

It's not a complaint. It's an observation.

But is the team more effective with both playing together? (along with a Gp2 or Hart) Who cares what the individual stats are.

 

[Natebishop3]

It seems weird to me to not look at the role he plays when dame plays, but is off the court, and only factoring in games that Dame misses.

When Dame is out, it changes a lot of things. Who is in the starting lineup? Who plays backup point guard? Who picks up the slack on FGA? It's not as simple as just looking at on/off.

How many minutes is Ant playing at point guard when Dame is playing?

If Ant is significantly better as a starting point guard, which I think I have shown that he is, aren't we holding him back by playing him out of position? I said earlier in the thread that my main concern was that he doesn't play nearly as good out of position. I think I have shown that.

 

[illmatic99]

If Ant is significantly better as a starting point guard, which I think I have shown that he is, aren't we holding him back by playing him out of position? I said earlier in the thread that my main concern was that he doesn't play nearly as good out of position. I think I have shown that.

a fundamental question: who cares if he plays worse individually but the team plays better?

 

[Tince]

Fine. If "head space" doesn't work for you, how about role? When Dame is out, he's the #1 and he plays different.

With Dame (12 games) - 21 ppg, 4 rebounds, 3.41 assists, 7.58-17.66 FG (43%) and 3.66-9.75 threes (37.6%)

Without Dame (10 games) - 28.5 ppg, 3 rebounds, 5.9 assists, 10.4-22 FG (47%) and 5-11.7 threes (42.7%)

I much prefer data like this to message board sports psychologists!

 

[wizenheimer]

CJ isn't a point guard.

This is a completely different conversation topic. One topic is whether they can play together. Can they play together? Sure. Is it a backcourt that can win in the playoffs? We don't know yet. There's a whole other thread dedicated to that topic. My point in that other thread was that I don't think Dame/Ant is going to have more success/different results than Dame/CJ. We won't know until this post-season.

The other topic, the one that I'm addressing here, is whether Ant is better as the #1/primary ball handler. I posted some stats. I had to go get those stats because on/off isn't the same thing as strictly looking at games where Dame was out. The rotation changes without Dame. The shot distribution changes without Dame. I wanted to only look at games where Simons was playing point guard without Lillard.

what I saw was that when Dame was out, Winslow was more of the PG than Simons

 

[RR7]

When Dame is out, it changes a lot of things. Who is in the starting lineup? Who plays backup point guard? Who picks up the slack on FGA? It's not as simple as just looking at on/off.

How many minutes is Ant playing at point guard when Dame is playing?

If Ant is significantly better as a starting point guard, which I think I have shown that he is, aren't we holding him back by playing him out of position? I said earlier in the thread that my main concern was that he doesn't play nearly as good out of position. I think I have shown that.

Who cares if we're holding him back? Are we trying to be the best team we could be? Or worrying about holding back Simons?
When Simons is ON THE FLOOR with Dame, he has a higher eFG% and a higher TS%. Thus, he is more efficient playing alongside Dame than without. Simons is 31/70 from 3 while on the court with Dame. That's good for 44%. When Dame is off the floor, Simons is 58/159 from 3. That's 36%. That's worse. He has a much highe usage when he is the PG, with Dame off the court. This is obvious. As has been pointed out, when a #1 guy is off the floor, you hope that your #2 is able to step up and be an effective replacement. Ant has shown he could do that.
If Ant shot worse, and was more inefficient when Dame was on the court, to the detriment of the team, then I could see you having a point. But that just isn't the case. He makes a great #2 alongside Dame. So where is the issue?

 

[Natebishop3]

Who cares if we're holding him back? Are we trying to be the best team we could be? Or worrying about holding back Simons?
When Simons is ON THE FLOOR with Dame, he has a higher eFG% and a higher TS%. Thus, he is more efficient playing alongside Dame than without. Simons is 31/70 from 3 while on the court with Dame. That's good for 44%. When Dame is off the floor, Simons is 58/159 from 3. That's 36%. That's worse. He has a much highe usage when he is the PG, with Dame off the court. This is obvious. As has been pointed out, when a #1 guy is off the floor, you hope that your #2 is able to step up and be an effective replacement. Ant has shown he could do that.
If Ant shot worse, and was more inefficient when Dame was on the court, to the detriment of the team, then I could see you having a point. But that just isn't the case. He makes a great #2 alongside Dame. So where is the issue?

If we're trying to be the best team we could be, then shouldn't we be trading Dame or Ant for a true star small forward? If it's all about the aggregate, then why are we trying to make a square peg fit into a round hole?

He makes a great #2 alongside Dame.

I don't think he makes a great #2 alongside Dame. I think he makes an okay/good #2.

With Dame (12 games) - 21 ppg, 4 rebounds, 3.41 assists, 7.58-17.66 FG (43%) and 3.66-9.75 threes (37.6%)

Those are not GREAT numbers. Those are good numbers. Those are CJ numbers. His overall numbers look better right now because Dame has missed 10 games. Would his numbers look so good if Dame had played all 22 games that Simons has played? He doesn't play as well with Dame in the lineup. He shoots significantly worse. 4% worse from the field and 5% worse from three. Those are not small numbers.