So KP is planning on picking Blake and Outlaw back up.

[hasoos]

His production was terrible. And who cares if he was a rookie? Your rule seems to be that we don't have time to wait and see how they do in the future, it's time to make decisions once and for all. You said you'd pitch Roy over the side if he had had a bad series, and he's just a third-year player.



And an extremely useful player if it is. His averages show that he's useful much more than he's not. So we agree, he's still the same decent reserve player he always was. Someone who should definitely be moveable in a smart trade, but not someone who should be ditched for nothing more than $4 million of cap space.

Except for the fact that you completely disregard that Oden is in the first year coming back from MF surgery and has none of the explosiveness that he had before it. Players coming off of MF surgery usually start getting the explosiveness back their 2nd year back.

Secondly, averages mean nothing. You can score a bunch one out of every 4 games and still have a good average. It doesn't mean you bring it every night. Bonzi Wells was that way, and he sucked. The way you get a good team is by players showing up and playing consistently good every night. Even when you lose, they show up and make it tough. That isn't Travis. The role of Travis is when you have exactly the right matchup offensivly, to use him to exploit the mistmatch. The rest of his game is MIA. That is because he is a tweener, and there aren't many good matchups for him, on both ends of the court. That is why you have to use him exclusively when you have the right mismatch, and that is why he is inconsistent, because other teams do not always provide that matchup.

 

[PapaG]

I am baffled at why some posters don't understand how dumping 2 out of the top 6 rotation players on a 54-win for literally nothing is a very bad idea.

I've been criticized for "defending Outlaw", when my argument has basically been the same as Minstrel's, but I think that some people here UNDERVALUE players that they see too often and OVERVALUE those that they don't see as often. Being unable to even talk to free agents prior to July 1st also makes it even more risky to not indicate that these players will be retained.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Semantics regarding options aside, KP has indicated that the Blazers will retain the rights to Outlaw and Blake rather than cutting them. There are two valid reasons why he would do this: 1) He likes what they contribute to the team and plans to keep one or both of them; or 2) He thinks one or more of them is worth more in a trade for a player he wants than the extra cap space he could gain by letting them go. The Blazers in the KP/Penn era have always had the guys they want to get pegged and have had plans in place to go about getting them. More often than not, they've been successful. My bet is that the same will be true this summer and that when the dust clears we'll see why keeping these guys was a part of that plan.

I'd prefer that the Blazers acquire a better starting PG and a true backup PF. However, since we on this message board aren't privvy to whom the Blazers are targeting and the methods they plan to go about obtaining their objectives, I don't see any reason to get my knickers in a twist simply because of this announcement.

Let's assume for a minute that you're right and, for arguments' sake, KP wants to keep both of them. Why would you tie up their 7.6M combined before you go shopping? If they are not traded on draft day and cut on June 30, what have you lost? Do you think that, if we don't need all that space and end up with 7.6M left over, that we couldn't sign Blake and/or Outlaw for that 7.6M if KP really wanted them? Maybe MEM might throw a big offer at Travis and sign him away. Good for them, and I agree that's a risk. Another risk is alienating every FA or RFA that makes or wants to make more than $7M dollars next year.

Let's just say that there's potential to get Ron Artest and Jason Kidd. Or Andre Miller and Brandon Bass. Or Hedo and Sessions. There's multiple options. Hamstringing your ability to get significantly better in the only FA period you can play in for the next decade b/c of the potential risk of losing two mediocre players who will be FAs next year anyway seems like poor asset management, and I don't see KP as a guy like that. Of course, the best way to deal with this is to make your splash during the draft (able to get back 6.25 to 14M worth of player, and the other team doesn't have to pay a dime to anyone), and then go into FA either making sign-and-trade deals (if you're over the cap) or to use your space then. Let's not forget, the 2.913 exception is a big asset also, but is required to be renounced June 30 as well if we want cap space.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I am baffled at why some posters don't understand how dumping 2 out of the top 6 rotation players on a 54-win for literally nothing is a very bad idea.

I explain part of it in the post above. It's not for "literally nothing". It's for the ability to target FAs who make more than 7M (maybe less, depending on if the cap goes down), or for a combination who make more than that. And if you want to re-sign Travis or Blake as a free agent after you've failed in your bid to get someone, you still can. But you don't immediately cut out a huge portion of the market.

Like I said, though, I doubt KP even takes the risk and we see one or both gone Draft Day. That's the easy way of dealing with this. And we still could get them back.

 

[Minstrel]

Except for the fact that you completely disregard that Oden is in the first year coming back from MF surgery and has none of the explosiveness that he had before it. Players coming off of MF surgery usually start getting the explosiveness back their 2nd year back.

I'm not disregarding that. Oden had an 18 PER during the season and an 11 PER in the playoffs. Unless he was only recovering from MF surgery in the playoffs, he clearly was much worse in the playoffs. Choker!

Secondly, averages mean nothing. You can score a bunch one out of every 4 games and still have a good average. It doesn't mean you bring it every night.

Averages show your overall value. It has nothing to do with "bringing it every night." Do you have evidence that a reserve who's really good 2 out of 4 games and not very good 2 out of 4 games is less valuable than a player who is mediocre every game?

 

[BrianFromWA]

To be honest, I'd rather have Travis be amazing for 1/2 the time and horrible half the time, if Nate knew to stay with him when he's hot and bench him when he's not. If whoever the reserve is is getting a steady 28mpg, I'd probably rather he be consistently mediocre, so that you can gameplan away his faults and maximize his strengths.

If you have no idea who's showing up to play, I don't understand how you can rely on that.

 

[andalusian]

Like everything else it is a risk/reward situation. The question is - does KP believe in these guys or at least thinks that their value as an expiring contributing player for the amount they make is higher than the no-guarantee cap space? My gut tells me that he values them more than the no-guarantee cap space - especially when you realize that at this point - until proven otherwise - they both offer a service that the current roster did not manage to get from anywhere else.

1. Blake is an acceptable NBA level PG. Last year Sergio was not and JB was not. One hopes that JB will become one - but what if he does not? Letting go of Blake with no guarantee that the team can sign a FA NBA level PG is a very big risk.

2. Outlaw was our only guy (other than Roy) that could create his own shot. We hope JB or Rudy will be able to, we hope LMA will get better in this regard and maybe Oden as well - but last year it was Roy and to a much lesser degree - Travis. All others were just hit and miss. Again - the risk is big - and makes sense for a bottom dwelling team. Thankfully - this team is no longer in this position.

My gut feeling is that signing these guys allows KP to control his destiny better in the upcoming year. They are both contributing players, they are both on a small expiring contract (making them attractive trade chips if he decides to move them) and they are both good enough to be rotation players at a playoffs caliber team (as we have seen last year). It would be a pretty big risk to take to not sign them.

Even if there are FA that require more than the cap - a sign and trade will probably be possible - so the risk/reward for not signing them is just too big...

 

[PapaG]

I'm not disregarding that. Oden had an 18 PER during the season and an 11 PER in the playoffs. Unless he was only recovering from MF surgery in the playoffs, he clearly was much worse in the playoffs. Choker!



Averages show your overall value. It has nothing to do with "bringing it every night." Do you have evidence that a reserve who's really good 2 out of 4 games and not very good 2 out of 4 games is less valuable than a player who is mediocre every game?

Personally, that is where PER comes into the equation for me since it weighs overall impact as the season progresses. Outlaw had a PER within a half point of Richard Jefferson, Trevor Ariza, Rudy Gay, Grant Hill, and Ron Artest.

 

[Minstrel]

To be honest, I'd rather have Travis be amazing for 1/2 the time and horrible half the time, if Nate knew to stay with him when he's hot and bench him when he's not. If whoever the reserve is is getting a steady 28mpg, I'd probably rather he be consistently mediocre, so that you can gameplan away his faults and maximize his strengths.

If you have no idea who's showing up to play, I don't understand how you can rely on that.

You can't "rely" on him. That's why he's not a starter. You couldn't rely on Fernandez, either. Sometimes he was great, sometimes invisible. And yes, ideally he'd play fewer minutes, but that's what comes when he's the only player other than Roy and Aldridge who can create his own shot.

If you blame anyone, blame Pritchard for the team he's assembled, where Outlaw is the third-best shot creator on the team. But I wouldn't even blame Pritchard, because the talent he's assembled hasn't fully blossomed yet. When/if Oden and Bayless develop, they'll be shot creators. Rudy and Batum could also become players who can create their own shots. As the young players become more developed offensive performers, Outlaw's role will shrink somewhat.

 

[e_blazer]

Let's assume for a minute that you're right and, for arguments' sake, KP wants to keep both of them. Why would you tie up their 7.6M combined before you go shopping? If they are not traded on draft day and cut on June 30, what have you lost? Do you think that, if we don't need all that space and end up with 7.6M left over, that we couldn't sign Blake and/or Outlaw for that 7.6M if KP really wanted them? Maybe MEM might throw a big offer at Travis and sign him away. Good for them, and I agree that's a risk. Another risk is alienating every FA or RFA that makes or wants to make more than $7M dollars next year.

Let's just say that there's potential to get Ron Artest and Jason Kidd. Or Andre Miller and Brandon Bass. Or Hedo and Sessions. There's multiple options. Hamstringing your ability to get significantly better in the only FA period you can play in for the next decade b/c of the potential risk of losing two mediocre players who will be FAs next year anyway seems like poor asset management, and I don't see KP as a guy like that. Of course, the best way to deal with this is to make your splash during the draft (able to get back 6.25 to 14M worth of player, and the other team doesn't have to pay a dime to anyone), and then go into FA either making sign-and-trade deals (if you're over the cap) or to use your space then. Let's not forget, the 2.913 exception is a big asset also, but is required to be renounced June 30 as well if we want cap space.

No need to assume. I'm always right.

Look, you're operating under the assumption that the Blazers want to maximize their ability to go shopping. I think that they've already determined who they want and that they have a plan in place to get the deal done. For argument's sake, let's assume that they've targeted a deal with the Knicks for David Lee. Let's say the Knicks like Travis Outlaw and are willing to do a sign and trade package that includes Sergio and Travis. If Lee is the guy they want, and I'm not saying he is, and if they have an agreement with the Knicks to make the deal in July, and again I'm not saying they do, then keeping the assets necessary to do the deal is perfectly smart. Again, we don't know what's happening behind the office doors at Blazers headquarters so we're in no position to judge this decision.

 

[BrianFromWA]

And if D. Lee was the ultimate target, and Lee, the Knicks and we ALL agreed to it, then fine. But what if 15M in salary-that-doesn't-have-to-be-paid is worth more to a team than Outlaw and Blake for 7.6M? You're assuming that Outlaw and Blake's talent are more valuable to other teams than the trade exception and cash relief we could provide. In today's NBA environment, where something like 13 teams had to take an emergency loan out from the commissioner's office, I disagree.

Look, you're operating under the assumption that the Blazers want to maximize their ability to go shopping

You're right, I am, and if you think they aren't then I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. I think that KP doesn't know what he wants yet, b/c of the nature of uncertainty associated with the draft, the ETO and RFA environment. He may have a draft board, a free agent list and a list of scenarios, but the "asset" isn't the talent of Outlaw and Blake, it's the cash you can give to a player and the relief that you can give to a team, IMO. At least, during this summer.

 

[Masbee]

There is a reason KP is paid a lot of money to be the GM and the people who spend the day posting aren't.

Smarts and Knowledge.

Yes.

But, also, reputation, contacts, opportunity, luck.

KP is a former player who has been involved in basketball for a long, long time. He knows a lot of people in the business and because of that was able to have doors opened that allowed him to display his smarts and knowledge.

There are likely folks that post on message boards that know MORE about the CBA then KP does.

Yes. It's true.

Even KP admits that his expertise on the CBA is not complete, which is why they brought Tom Penn in to be the capologist.

And John Nash was paid a lot to be the GM - and I wasn't. I pretty much disagreed with every move he made.

So, who is the smart one now? The board poster or the highly paid GM?

Connections and luck have more to do with being a GM then with the ability to make smart statements on the subjects surrounding the NBA. Case in point: John Nash. 2nd case in point: Isiah Thomas. 3rd case in point: Chris Wallace.

So, I reject you out-of-hand dismissing of board posts that contradict what the almighty Pritchard says or does or is rumoured to have said or done. Argue the points on their merits.

 

[e_blazer]

And if D. Lee was the ultimate target, and Lee, the Knicks and we ALL agreed to it, then fine.

I'm pretty sure the CBA doesn't require the sign-off of the S2 board for a trade to go down. Maybe it should, but I don't see it in there.

But what if 15M in salary-that-doesn't-have-to-be-paid is worth more to a team than Outlaw and Blake for 7.6M? You're assuming that Outlaw and Blake's talent are more valuable to other teams than the trade exception and cash relief we could provide. In today's NBA environment, where something like 13 teams had to take an emergency loan out from the commissioner's office, I disagree.

You're right, I am, and if you think they aren't then I'm fine with agreeing to disagree. I think that KP doesn't know what he wants yet, b/c of the nature of uncertainty associated with the draft, the ETO and RFA environment. He may have a draft board, a free agent list and a list of scenarios, but the "asset" isn't the talent of Outlaw and Blake, it's the cash you can give to a player and the relief that you can give to a team, IMO. At least, during this summer.

Again, for all we know a deal may already agreed to by all parties and we're simply waiting for the July moratorium to end so it can happen. We simply don't know what's going on. However, as you noted in your earlier post, all that's happened so far is that KP says he's keeping Blake and Outlaw. If things change before June 30th and some other deal looks promising, I doubt that there's anything that would prevent him from changing his mind and cutting one or the other of them.

 

[BrianFromWA]

I'm pretty sure the CBA doesn't require the sign-off of the S2 board for a trade to go down. Maybe it should, but I don't see it in there.

Good point. All three parties must agree, and we as the S2 board aren't invited to that party. But an S&T is significantly riskier than just signing a UFA, in terms of ease of getting a deal done.

Again, for all we know a deal may already agreed to by all parties and we're simply waiting for the July moratorium to end so it can happen. We simply don't know what's going on. However, as you noted in your earlier post, all that's happened so far is that KP says he's keeping Blake and Outlaw. If things change before June 30th and some other deal looks promising, I doubt that there's anything that would prevent him from changing his mind and cutting one or the other of them.

That's the point I've been trying to make in this whole thread. Nothing has happened yet or changed, and all the variables are still variables. I wouldn't kill myself if Blake and Outlaw were on the team July 1st. I personally don't think it'll happen, but that's just speculation. The facts are that nothing has changed.