So when will people agree with me we can be a top3 seed?

[e_blazer]

One thing that I think that MM and others of a similar view are missing is that it wasn't losses against better teams that kept the Blazers from making the playoffs last year as much as it was losses to teams that they should have beaten. I have absolutely no doubt that last year's team would have lost to the Pistons in a game like last night's. Our bench was huge last night, with Mo, Joel, and Dorrel all making big contributions. That wouldn't/couldn't have happened last year. I also have little doubt that last year's team would have dropped the away game to the Kings on the back2back. This year, so far they've only lost one of those games against arguably lesser opposition, and the Suns have been playing great anyway.

I don't know that I'm ready to say the Blazers "will" be a top 3 seed, but I'd go along with "can" be a top 3 seed. Things will have to break their way, because on paper you'd have to probably say that the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, and maybe Warriors would be expected to finish above the Blazers. I'm not sold on the Warriors' chemistry and, in that vein, I think the Blazers will continue to surprise because I really like the chemistry that's building. As always, it's probably the injury bug that will be the final determinant of making the top half of the bracket.

Edit: I see Wizard Mentor made basically the same point while I was typing my post. Great minds....and all that.

 

[Mediocre Man]

One thing that I think that MM and others of a similar view are missing is that it wasn't losses against better teams that kept the Blazers from making the playoffs last year as much as it was losses to teams that they should have beaten. I have absolutely no doubt that last year's team would have lost to the Pistons in a game like last night's. Our bench was huge last night, with Mo, Joel, and Dorrel all making big contributions. That wouldn't/couldn't have happened last year. I also have little doubt that last year's team would have dropped the away game to the Kings on the back2back. This year, so far they've only lost one of those games against arguably lesser opposition, and the Suns have been playing great anyway.

I don't know that I'm ready to say the Blazers "will" be a top 3 seed, but I'd go along with "can" be a top 3 seed. Things will have to break their way, because on paper you'd have to probably say that the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, and maybe Warriors would be expected to finish above the Blazers. I'm not sold on the Warriors' chemistry and, in that vein, I think the Blazers will continue to surprise because I really like the chemistry that's building. As always, it's probably the injury bug that will be the final determinant of making the top half of the bracket.

Edit: I see Wizard Mentor made basically the same point while I was typing my post. Great minds....and all that.

The Blazers finished way out of playoff contention last season, and finished the season sucking hard. The winning % of our opponents over those last 12-13 games was 600 I believe (I looked last summer when this was brought up as well.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

We have literally played two games where we should have been in danger of losing. Both at home vs the Rockets and Spurs. we won won of those and lost one of them. Phoenix may be a surprise, but they aren't that good. Sacramento is garbage, and Detroit, while maybe ok, was a home game. That is a very easy schedule to start the year to this point.

It has been a relatively easy schedule . . . still the Blazer team last year would probably be 3-4 or 4-3 at beat (losses to Denver and the back to back game or loss to Detroit or loss to SA)




Edit: I see my point has been made a couple of times and much better articulated

 

[magnifier661]

One thing that I think that MM and others of a similar view are missing is that it wasn't losses against better teams that kept the Blazers from making the playoffs last year as much as it was losses to teams that they should have beaten. I have absolutely no doubt that last year's team would have lost to the Pistons in a game like last night's. Our bench was huge last night, with Mo, Joel, and Dorrel all making big contributions. That wouldn't/couldn't have happened last year. I also have little doubt that last year's team would have dropped the away game to the Kings on the back2back. This year, so far they've only lost one of those games against arguably lesser opposition, and the Suns have been playing great anyway.

I don't know that I'm ready to say the Blazers "will" be a top 3 seed, but I'd go along with "can" be a top 3 seed. Things will have to break their way, because on paper you'd have to probably say that the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, and maybe Warriors would be expected to finish above the Blazers. I'm not sold on the Warriors' chemistry and, in that vein, I think the Blazers will continue to surprise because I really like the chemistry that's building. As always, it's probably the injury bug that will be the final determinant of making the top half of the bracket.

Edit: I see Wizard Mentor made basically the same point while I was typing my post. Great minds....and all that.

The road trip will be a telling tale. There are some winnable games that last season's team just couldn't get. Most due to a shitty bench. If our bench can help us win these "winnable games" then we are surely for real.

What the fuck man?!?!?! I said it before he did! Boohooo!

 

[Draco]

Our schedule has been very easy, by some metrics it rates as the easiest in the league.

But to be a 3 seed all you have to do is beat the bad teams and win half your games against the good teams. Some Blazer fans don’t realize how fine of a line it is between 3rd and 6th seed in the regular season standings. Our offense is excellent so I don’t expect us to have trouble scoring the ball at all this year. Obviously defense is a concern but that’s why I don’t think we are favored to be a top3 team; just one team in the pack that has a real chance. Winning against the Spurs was good, and Detroit has a lot of talent. I definitely expect Detroit to be a playoff team in the east not that that is terribly impressive.

 

[e_blazer]

The Blazers finished way out of playoff contention last season, and finished the season sucking hard. The winning % of our opponents over those last 12-13 games was 600 I believe (I looked last summer when this was brought up as well.

That death spiral of 13 straight losses was partially attributable to the strength of the opposition, but more so to the injuries that wiped out 3 of our starting 5. The Blazers lost a boatload of games to teams they should have beaten.

 

[Strenuus]

Repped your post e_blazer. Good stuff.

However, if we're making the injury bug comment, I might throw Minny in the mix, if they are healthy. That's a damn good team, if healthy. I think they could fight for the #4, #5 seed.

 

[magnifier661]

Our schedule has been very easy, by some metrics it rates as the easiest in the league.

But to be a 3 seed all you have to do is beat the bad teams and win half your games against the good teams. Some Blazer fans don’t realize how fine of a line it is between 3rd and 6th seed in the regular season standings. Our offense is excellent so I don’t expect us to have trouble scoring the ball at all this year. Obviously defense is a concern but that’s why I don’t think we are favored to be a top3 team; just one team in the pack that has a real chance. Winning against the Spurs was good, and Detroit has a lot of talent. I definitely expect Detroit to be a playoff team in the east not that that is terribly impressive.

This is especially important on the road. We need to take their fans out of the game and the only way to do that is with defense.

 

[e_blazer]

What the fuck man?!?!?! I said it before he did! Boohooo!

Oh, am I supposed to read your posts? Sorry man.

 

[e_blazer]

Repped your post e_blazer. Good stuff.

However, if we're making the injury bug comment, I might throw Minny in the mix, if they are healthy. That's a damn good team, if healthy. I think they could fight for the #4, #5 seed.

Yeah, but I just seem to expect that Minny will flame out as always. That team seems to have a worse injury record than even the Blazers.

 

[Strenuus]

The Blazers finished way out of playoff contention last season, and finished the season sucking hard. The winning % of our opponents over those last 12-13 games was 600 I believe (I looked last summer when this was brought up as well.

When you stop caring, you start losing ball games. The last 6-8 of those were like preseason... going through the motions.

Everyone was saying they tanked the last 2 weeks, so how can that be a quantifiable argument for this year?

 

[RR7]

Our schedule has been very easy, by some metrics it rates as the easiest in the league.

But to be a 3 seed all you have to do is beat the bad teams and win half your games against the good teams. Some Blazer fans don’t realize how fine of a line it is between 3rd and 6th seed in the regular season standings. Our offense is excellent so I don’t expect us to have trouble scoring the ball at all this year. Obviously defense is a concern but that’s why I don’t think we are favored to be a top3 team; just one team in the pack that has a real chance. Winning against the Spurs was good, and Detroit has a lot of talent. I definitely expect Detroit to be a playoff team in the east not that that is terribly impressive.

What would you be looking at to say it's one of the easiest schedules in the leauge so far?

 

[magnifier661]

Oh, am I supposed to read your posts? Sorry man.

That is just mean!!!! You better rep me or I will Keal you!!!!!

 

[Strenuus]

This is especially important on the road. We need to take their fans out of the game and the only way to do that is with defense.

Or lots of 3's

 

[Strenuus]

Yeah, but I just seem to expect that Minny will flame out as always. That team seems to have a worse injury record than even the Blazers.

I am under the belief of this year and this year only, so that's why I made the qualifier of "if healthy"... because they are as of now.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Benchm players usually don't perform as well on the road . . . I think the starters are going to have to show up and and play big minutes for a successful road trip (earn their pay). If starters can avoid logging big minutes at home, they are in prime position to earn some key victories on the road.

 

[e_blazer]

That is just mean!!!! You better rep me or I will Keal you!!!!!

Well, since you put it so nicely (and since you're paying for a good seat for me at a Blazer game) I have repped you. Wait, it may have been the report a post button. I get so confused by this Internet thingy.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

The Blazers finished way out of playoff contention last season, and finished the season sucking hard. The winning % of our opponents over those last 12-13 games was 600 I believe (I looked last summer when this was brought up as well.

I don't believe in the most relevant sense this is true. Basically, we had 4 guys on the team last year, this year we have 8 (with CJ waiting in the wings). So, an injury to 1 guy last year is like having injuries to 2 guys this year. In the last 13 games we basically had 2 guys injured which is like having 4 guys injured this year or having 4 guys injured on a good team. Take 4 guys from the rotation of any team and they'll "suck hard."

How we finished last year has no bearing on this year.

 

[magnifier661]

Well, since you put it so nicely (and since you're paying for a good seat for me at a Blazer game) I have repped you. Wait, it may have been the report a post button. I get so confused by this Internet thingy.

Thanks for adding reputation to this user. May you be lucky enough to receive the same Reputation back in turn.

 

[Draco]

I don't know that I'm ready to say the Blazers "will" be a top 3 seed, but I'd go along with "can" be a top 3 seed. Things will have to break their way, because on paper you'd have to probably say that the Thunder, Spurs, Rockets, Clippers, and maybe Warriors would be expected to finish above the Blazers. I'm not sold on the Warriors' chemistry and, in that vein, I think the Blazers will continue to surprise because I really like the chemistry that's building. As always, it's probably the injury bug that will be the final determinant of making the top half of the bracket.

Yeah that has been my whole point you articulated it very well. The regular season is unpredictable and teams can easily have 9 wins more or less than they probably should. I agree those 5 teams are more likely to be a top3 seed, but lets figure one or two of those five teams will have some big injuries. Sure we also have a 1/6 chance of it being our team. But since injuries to 5 teams help us and only injuries to one team hurts us chances are much more likely than not we benefit from injuries.

 

[julius]

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nba/westernsospg.html

if I'm reading it right (which I might not be, so someone smarter...BrianFromWa for example...can confirm what I'm guessing here)..Portland has had the 15th hardest schedule so far.

 

[julius]

Or 11th...

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

 

[Draco]

What would you be looking at to say it's one of the easiest schedules in the leauge so far?

Well I thought BBReference rated our schedule as the worst before the Pistons game but now its rated as above average.

 

[magnifier661]

Or 11th...

http://espn.go.com/nba/stats/rpi/_/sort/SOS

And according to that, Detroit's record maybe a reflection on just how hard their schedule has been. They are a quality team!

 

[magnifier661]

Well I thought BBReference rated our schedule as the worst before the Pistons game but now its rated as above average.

What's surprising is Miami had a pretty damn easy schedule (24th) and they are not playing well.

 

[RR7]

Well I thought BBReference rated our schedule as the worst before the Pistons game but now its rated as above average.

Cool. I hadn't looked at SOS until today. Seems difficult to imagine on their ranking, that we'd be able to be lower than the Bulls -3.33 yesterday, and jump all the way to .68 today after a game against a then 2-3 team. Even with their tough schedule.

 

[mgb]

I was sooooo sure we'd be top 4 that I bet a steak dinner with the HCP. I have an empty seat next to me if anyone wants to sit next to me!

I know HCP would want me to have that steak dinner! I know I want it!

 

[Draco]

Cool. I hadn't looked at SOS until today. Seems difficult to imagine on their ranking, that we'd be able to be lower than the Bulls -3.33 yesterday, and jump all the way to .68 today after a game against a then 2-3 team. Even with their tough schedule.

I'd guess the other teams we've played, Suns, Spurs, Rockets; probably increased in the rankings strength thus helping our strength of schedule.

 

[magnifier661]

We have a +3.857 differential in points. 5th in RPI, only trailing OKC, Phoenix, Indiana and SAS

 

[Draco]

What's surprising is Miami had a pretty damn easy schedule (24th) and they are not playing well.

I don't think anyone should be concerned about Miami until late February, and really only if they are injured.

But Miami does have the #1 offense in the league in ORTG (offensive rating) at 112.8. #2 is our Blazers at 112.7!!! Somehow Miami has the 27th ranked defense at 108.2 while our Blazers are ranked #28th at 108.6