So you say you want Rubio?

[Nikolokolus]

Here's the snippet from Hollinger after using his draft rater tool on European prospects:
ESPN insider: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...=hollinger_john&page=EuropeanProspects-090623

Ricky Rubio
OK, it's time to shine a harsher light here. There's one thing working hugely against Rubio's status as an A-list prospect that nobody seems to want to mention, so let me put it out there: There's very little evidence he can score at anything approaching an acceptable rate for an NBA point guard.

We have very little recent Euroleague data to work with from Rubio -- just a 66-minute sample from this year and a larger sample from two years earlier -- but both sets translate to scoring about five points per 40 minutes and shooting in the low 30s. Ugh. Rubio shot better in the Spanish ACB league this season, including 25-of-62 on 3-pointers, but he also shot only 39 percent on 2s against a lower level of competition.

Same goes for his alleged breakout in the Olympics -- as heralded as he was for his play, he made nine baskets in eight games and shot 28.1 percent for the tournament. And while one of those games was against a team full of U.S. All-Stars, he wasn't bedazzling the Germans or Angolans either. Obviously he's a Jason Kidd-like rarity in that he can have a heavy impact on the game without scoring, but if his shooting numbers don't improve, he'll make Kidd look like Rick Barry.

One note, Hollinger didn't post a projected PER, probably because Rubio only logged 66 Euroleague minutes and the tool uses 200 minutes to make its projection.

Take it for what it's worth.

 

[Rodolfo]

I don't think the guy is going to turn out to be anything special. Really hope we don't make a move for the guy.

 

[BrianFromWA]

Dunno...if I have Roy, LMA, Oden all demanding touches, I want Jason Kidd more than Rick Barry....right?

 

[BrianFromWA]

I do think he'll be something special. I would give up a lot to get him. But that's me. I think a PG's main focus in life is to get the scorers the ball, and the second is to defend your guy from getting his scorers the ball. An all-defense distributing whiz is kind of a nocturnal emission for me.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I do think he'll be something special. I would give up a lot to get him. But that's me. I think a PG's main focus in life is to get the scorers the ball, and the second is to defend your guy from getting his scorers the ball. An all-defense distributing whiz is kind of a nocturnal emission for me.

Hmmm ... weird, I always tend to dream of naked Brazilian supermodels.

Secondly I seriously doubt he's going to be an all-nba defender ... that's too tough to project with the competition he's faced in the ACB.

 

[BrianFromWA]

You win.

 

[Wizard Mentor]

Here's the snippet from Hollinger after using his draft rater tool on European prospects:
ESPN insider: http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...=hollinger_john&page=EuropeanProspects-090623


One note, Hollinger didn't post a projected PER, probably because Rubio only logged 66 Euroleague minutes and the tool uses 200 minutes to make its projection.

Take it for what it's worth.

OK, I'll bite. Which Eurostiffs do his Euro-draft-rater like?

The other ESPN analysts, even those who value his rater, don't think much of it for Euro prospects.

 

[Paxil]

I think he will be a lot like Sergio in the scoring dept.

 

[Nikolokolus]

OK, I'll bite. Which Eurostiffs do his Euro-draft-rater like?

The other ESPN analysts, even those who value his rater, don't think much of it for Euro prospects.

It liked hardly any of the current Euros in the draft but it really liked some guys that already have their draft rights held like Tiago Splitter.

Here's this year's draft picks:

              pts/40  rebs/40  ast/40  fg%    PER
Oguz Savas 	15.0 	8.4 	3.2 	47.0 	14.76
Omri Casspi 	14.9 	8.4 	1.3 	44.4 	12.06
Sergio Llull 	11.1 	2.7 	6.2 	41.2 	10.14
Brandon Jennings 11.4 	3.7 	4.3 	34.1 	8.06
Milenko Tepic 	10.1 	5.7 	6.0 	34.2 	7.90
Gasper Vidmar 	7.4 	12.3 	0.9 	41.3 	6.56

True Free Agents:

D'Or Fischer 	        15.4 	12.5 	2.1 	61.7 	17.97
Ioannis Bourosis 	17.3 	16.0 	1.8 	52.0 	17.90
Terrell McIntyre 	16.7 	3.8 	7.5 	45.1 	16.54
Ksistof Lavrinovic 13.0 	12.2 	1.6 	40.7 	13.79
Carlos Arroyo 	        12.9 	3.7 	6.4 	34.6 	10.21
Carlos Cabezas 	        11.8 	4.0 	4.0 	39.0 	7.90

Rights held players:

Player 	Pts/40 	Reb/40 	Ast/40 	FG Percent 	PER
Nikola Pekovic 	21.7 	9.9 	1.0 	55.8 	18.36
Erazem Lorbek 	17.4 	11.4 	2.0 	51.4 	17.16
Tiago Splitter 	16.4 	10.0 	3.2 	57.6 	16.52
Fran Vazquez 	13.7 	11.7 	1.8 	59.3 	15.86
Lior Eliyahu 	15.5 	11.5 	4.7 	54.2 	15.25
Ersan Ilyasova 	15.3 	16.0 	2.1 	40.2 	14.48
David Andersen 	16.0 	9.3 	2.1 	44.7 	12.86
Georgios Printezis 13.8 8.0    1.6     56.0  11.51
Josh Childress 	10.7 	8.8 	2.4 	41.4 	9.77

 

[Wizard Mentor]

It liked hardly any of the current Euros in the draft but it really liked some guys that already have their draft rights held like Tiago Splitter.

Here's this year's draft picks:

              pts/40  rebs/40  ast/40  fg%    PER
Oguz Savas 	15.0 	8.4 	3.2 	47.0 	14.76
Omri Casspi 	14.9 	8.4 	1.3 	44.4 	12.06
Sergio Llull 	11.1 	2.7 	6.2 	41.2 	10.14
Brandon Jennings 11.4 	3.7 	4.3 	34.1 	8.06
Milenko Tepic 	10.1 	5.7 	6.0 	34.2 	7.90
Gasper Vidmar 	7.4 	12.3 	0.9 	41.3 	6.56

True Free Agents:

D'Or Fischer 	        15.4 	12.5 	2.1 	61.7 	17.97
Ioannis Bourosis 	17.3 	16.0 	1.8 	52.0 	17.90
Terrell McIntyre 	16.7 	3.8 	7.5 	45.1 	16.54
Ksistof Lavrinovic 13.0 	12.2 	1.6 	40.7 	13.79
Carlos Arroyo 	        12.9 	3.7 	6.4 	34.6 	10.21
Carlos Cabezas 	        11.8 	4.0 	4.0 	39.0 	7.90

Exactly, the player his Euro-rater likes the best (Savas)....
a) I've never heard of.
b) Is not on Draft Express's mock draft at all.

If I read your post properly, it really brings the Euro-draft rater into question, including its opinions about Rubio.

 

[RoyToy]

I'm hoping for Rubio to be a bigger bust than Kwame Brown. No, Seriously.

 

[hasoos]

I have been saying this the whole time. He has the same problem Jason Kidd does, but worse. The only time he can get buckets is in a running game and in transition. It doesn't mean he can't find that part of his game, but it will at least take a couple of years of work.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Exactly, the player his Euro-rater likes the best (Savas)....
a) I've never heard of.
b) Is not on Draft Express's mock draft at all.

If I read your post properly, it really brings the Euro-draft rater into question, including its opinions about Rubio.

It's not meant to be a 100% accurate, there are always outliers, but just because you've never heard of a guy doesn't really mean anything. For instance, his draft rater correctly identified Rajon Rondo and Carlos Boozer (late first round and second round picks) as deserving of lottery consideration. It's not a be-all-end-all evaluation tool, but if it wasn't accurate over time then he wouldn't be posting the results year after year. You can quibble over the weights and algorithms Hollinger's methodolgy employs, but the guy is a legit statistician.

In any case here's the snippet talking about the no-name guy, Savas:

Oguz Savas
A draft-eligible Turkish big man who has generated no buzz whatsoever, my numbers show Savas as a mid-first-round talent. His translated PER from this season is 14.76, and while his numbers from the previous season aren't as strong (10.81), combining the two still leaves you with a decent backup center that has some potential for improvement. He doesn't wow with his athleticism but he is big and smart, can shoot and seems like a poor man's version of countryman Mehmet Okur.

 

[alex42083]

I could see Rubio having a solid NBA career, maybe the same kind of impact that Jason Williams had in Sacramento with the flash and style. But not MVP caliber that some think along the lines of a Magic Johnson and CP3.. we'll see I guess.

 

[hasoos]

I could see Rubio having a solid NBA career, maybe the same kind of impact that Jason Williams had in Sacramento with the flash and style. But not MVP caliber that some think along the lines of a Magic Johnson and CP3.. we'll see I guess.

You know its funny, but once Jason Williams went under Hubie Brown and finally settled down, he became a fairly decent player. If he had done that 5 years earlier, he might have been quite a catch.

 

[craigehlo]

I could see Rubio having a solid NBA career, maybe the same kind of impact that Jason Williams had in Sacramento with the flash and style.

My feelings exactly. He'll dish a lot of dimes but miss a lot of shots and turn the ball over too often.

I hope the Thunder do take Rubio and not Harden. He would make their squad a lot tougher IMHO.

 

[alex42083]

You know its funny, but once Jason Williams went under Hubie Brown and finally settled down, he became a fairly decent player. If he had done that 5 years earlier, he might have been quite a catch.

JWill's career really died a slow painful death and vanished into obscurity in Miami, but even with the Kings, I thought he was a good player. He was a great first- through third-quarter player, but could never be trusted in the fourth by Adelman.
With the way his career ended, I think a lot of people forget how dynamic of a player he was with people comparing him to Maravich, just like Rubio.

And I agree that he became a more structured player in Memphis, which I think Rubio is going to have to go through when he comes into the NBA.