Some support for "pessimistic" posters:

[UKRAINEFAN]

Questions and answers at Blazers Edge http://www.blazersedge.com/2011/6/2...-june-30th-2011-semi-cranky-edition#storyjump

"Why are you so negative about the team all of a sudden?

Sigh... I hate this kind of thing. When you say something that goes against the grain to the positive people call you a homer fan optimist. When you say something that goes against the grain the other way people call you a negative-Nelly pessimist. Trying to attribute statements you don't agree with to somebody's emotional state or slapping them with a broad (and untrue) label just seems...silly.

Here's the deal: When Charlotte had Raymond Felton I figured he was a serviceable guard but did not go gaga over his contributions or where he led the team. Neither did Charlotte, as they traded him to New York. When New York got Raymond Felton I did not think he was going to lift them to the next level. He did well there, but ultimately the Knicks agreed because they traded him to Denver. When Felton came to Denver I did not think he was going to revolutionize their roster and style of play. Neither did they, as they traded him to Portland. Now that he's come to Portland my assessment of him is supposed to change, just because he's a Blazer now? He's the same guy he always was: a good, not great, point guard with some legit skills and equally legit flaws. How is that any more negative of an assessment than I had six months ago, other than not automatically buying into the company line that the Blazers have finally found their PGOTF...rather needing to see it happen on the court first? In fact it's not that much more of a negative assessment than I had of Andre Miller's future in Portland, which I deemed short despite his generally good play and plenty of protests to the contrary.

Continuing: If the Sacramento Kings were sporting a Top 8 of Aldridge, Wallace, Matthews, Felton, Camby, Batum, Roy, and Oden my assessment would be that they could be scary if they ever got fully healthy but that was probably not going to happen so they'll be a nice enough team that probably will bow out in the early playoff rounds again. I'd probably opine that to change their fate they either needed a recovery miracle or a solid kick in the pants roster-wise. None of the moves on draft day would qualify as a kick in the pants. Again...I'm supposed to change that assessment just because the uniforms say "Portland" and not "Sacramento"? That would be disingenuous. Nor is it that negative of an evaluation given the circumstances. Nobody said the Blazers would stink. They just didn't make enough of a move to change their probable destiny, leaving themselves relying on Roy and Oden again.

Why don't you like Nolan Smith?

OK, you can stop now. Really.

Nobody dislikes Nolan Smith. Before anointing him as the Next Great Get (or even a solid rotation player) we need to see how Smith is different than Sebastian Telfair, Jarrett Jack, Jerryd Bayless, Sergio Rodriguez, Petteri Koponen, and perhaps Elliot Williams...all of whom were first-round point or combo-guard picks and none of whom have stuck with the team (or in the case of Williams, played for the team) so far. This organization has a history of picking point guards who don't pan out. The onus is on them and Smith to show that this time is different.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I can share a little bit of Dave's "pain." His assessment of the team's prospects has flattened and even nosed down a bit and the sunshine pumpers are letting him hear about it.

Similarly, I'm definitely pessimistic about this team's fortunes and have been for about a year and a half (strangely coincident with Greg's knee exploding against Houston) but ask anybody who's "known" me at various message boards for awhile and they should concede that I haven't always been down on the team ... in fact I used to be pretty optimistic about their chances, but facts and momentum change and when I started to see those changes I pointed them out -- much to the chagrin of many of you I know.

Unfortunately not much has changed lately to sway me from the impression that the team is on somewhat steady downward arc. Certainly we've added some nice players in Matthews, Miller (adieu) and Wallace, but each feels a little bit like patching a slowly sinking boat with bubble gum when key pieces like Brandon and Greg have foundered so badly and the owner appears increasingly unstable.

Who knows, maybe we'll see a drastic reversal of fortune in the next year or two, but I'm with Dave, the onus is on "them" to show that this time is different.

 

[Rhal]

It almost seems as if that post is all about the "stop labeling me i'm tired of being labeled one way or the other". He made good points but underlying it was the fact he isn't homer and is proud of that. Good for him.
I'm a homer and will always be one, its just how my brain works if thats not how yours is set up well then I may disagree with you on points and your going to disagree with me on points. Thats what makes basketball talk fun, its mostly hypothetical. People tend to get really annoyed because they are one extreme or the other and if you don't agree with them they'll call you out about it, if you don't like that then you probably shouldn't be posting your opinions on a website.

 

[BlazerBeav]

Certainly we've added some nice players in Matthews, Miller (adieu) and Wallace, but each feels a little bit like patching a slowly sinking boat with bubble gum when key pieces like Brandon and Greg have foundered so badly and the owner appears increasingly unstable.

Seriously, it's melodramatic crap like this that annoys people. So our billionaire owner is finding a hard time getting the right fit for GM of his team. Big deal, he's entitled to make employee changes as often as he sees fit. That in no way makes him "unstable". Does it make him hard to work for? Apparently - at least for the guy in that position. But for god's sake, being picky doesn't make someone unstable.

 

[OSUBlazerfan]

Cha didn't trade felton, dave

 

[Nikolokolus]

Seriously, it's melodramatic crap like this that annoys people. So our billionaire owner is finding a hard time getting the right fit for GM of his team. Big deal, he's entitled to make employee changes as often as he sees fit. That in no way makes him "unstable". Does it make him hard to work for? Apparently - at least for the guy in that position. But for god's sake, being picky doesn't make someone unstable.

I don't mean unstable in the "lock him up in a padded room" way, I mean he's very erratic with his front office.

If there's one constant with winning organizations vs. organizations that struggle to maintain any sort of momentum it appears to be the level of consistency and vision that an owner displays; an apparent inability to hire the right guy and swapping out GMs like underwear is symptomatic of somebody without much patience and probably not much vision.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

I don't mean unstable in the "lock him up in a padded room" way, I mean he's very erratic with his front office.

If there's one constant with winning organizations vs. organizations that struggle to maintain any sort of momentum it appears to be the level of consistency and vision that an owner displays; an apparent inability to hire the right guy and swapping out GMs like underwear is symptomatic of somebody without much patience and probably not much vision.

It's interesting that in the two most important positions for a basketball organization, general manager and point guard, we have had the least stability and continuity.

 

[B-Roy]

It's interesting that in the two most important positions for a basketball organization, general manager and point guard, we have had the least stability and continuity.

I heard we're trading for Chris Paul.

 

[barfo]

When New York got Raymond Felton I did not think he was going to lift them to the next level. He did well there, but ultimately the Knicks agreed because they traded him to Denver.

New York traded him for Carmelo. Yeah, they valued him less than they valued Carmelo. There's a surprise.

barfo

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

I don't mean unstable in the "lock him up in a padded room" way, I mean he's very erratic with his front office.

If there's one constant with winning organizations vs. organizations that struggle to maintain any sort of momentum it appears to be the level of consistency and vision that an owner displays; an apparent inability to hire the right guy and swapping out GMs like underwear is symptomatic of somebody without much patience and probably not much vision.

I'll agree in part with this, but if there are good players and good coaching none of that matters. And we obtained good players, but due to injuries the team wilkl never reach its potential. Nonetheless, mostly our second team and a good and stable coaching staff has made the playoffs 3 years running. In my 35 years of being an NBA fan, no team has gone what we have injury wise and made the playoffs 3 years running. None.

How bad can we really be?

 

[oldmangrouch]

I'll agree in part with this, but if there are good players and good coaching none of that matters. And we obtained good players, but due to injuries the team wilkl never reach its potential. Nonetheless, mostly our second team and a good and stable coaching staff has made the playoffs 3 years running. In my 35 years of being an NBA fan, no team has gone what we have injury wise and made the playoffs 3 years running. None.

How bad can we really be?

One of the guys responsible for keeping the team afloat just got traded for a player many of us are unimpressed with. Another (Camby) looks like he is reaching the end of the trail. The team has gone from 54 wins to 48 wins, and could well slip another notch.

How bad can the team really be? Maybe not 50-loss-season bad, but not get-excited-good either.

 

[julius]

Cha didn't trade felton, dave

And not only that, New York (as barfo said, and we all know) traded him to get a superstar. Obviously it must mean that they thought he was garbage.

I think this response is the epitome of why I don't give a shit about blazersedge. It's run by a guy who has an inflated sense of his knowledge and his importance. And whats worse is that he is given any credibility by local media (well, the game is all I know of) and is considered anything but a dorky fan who can access a trade checker and make trades.

The feel I've always gotten from BE was that of someone who thought he was a big shot, and that he needed to make everything a big deal or part of his "website". You know, the dorks who create their own website or forums not because they want to go somewhere where the clutter is gone, but because they want to be able to say "I run my own online forum!"

 

[BLAZER PROPHET]

One of the guys responsible for keeping the team afloat just got traded for a player many of us are unimpressed with. Another (Camby) looks like he is reaching the end of the trail. The team has gone from 54 wins to 48 wins, and could well slip another notch.

How bad can the team really be? Maybe not 50-loss-season bad, but not get-excited-good either.

Maybe so, but I'm happy to see us make the playoffs and I'm sure we will this next season (whenever that may be). A consistent playoff team is hard to build.

 

[UKRAINEFAN]

And not only that, New York (as barfo said, and we all know) traded him to get a superstar. Obviously it must mean that they thought he was garbage.

I think this response is the epitome of why I don't give a shit about blazersedge. It's run by a guy who has an inflated sense of his knowledge and his importance. And whats worse is that he is given any credibility by local media (well, the game is all I know of) and is considered anything but a dorky fan who can access a trade checker and make trades.

The feel I've always gotten from BE was that of someone who thought he was a big shot, and that he needed to make everything a big deal or part of his "website". You know, the dorks who create their own website or forums not because they want to go somewhere where the clutter is gone, but because they want to be able to say "I run my own online forum!"

He certainly weakened his argument by using the route of who had already traded the guy instead of using statistics and analysis; I don't think he is trying to attack the trade, just not something to be excited about. I don't really have a problem with him being kind of a blowhard,he seems to put a lot of work into the site and it does have some useful information.

 

[mook]

Maybe so, but I'm happy to see us make the playoffs and I'm sure we will this next season (whenever that may be). A consistent playoff team is hard to build.

Is this a playoff team next year? I'm not really that sure. If Aldridge can pull off "beast mode" for a full season, averaging 24/9, then yeah. Or if Batum or Matthews or Felton can give us a quantum leap in productivity, sure. Or if Williams or Smith turn out to be Michael Redd-like non-lotto heists, definitely. Or if Oden can stay healthy for half a year, definitely. But it seems to me there are just as many (more?) things that can go wrong that would derail that from happening.

Every year I tend to be much more optimistic than most, predicting 55-62 wins over the past three years. (And I might've been right every time if not for Oden/Roy knees.)

But this year I'm kind of glum. Miller won us a lot of games, and I don't see Felton replacing that productivity. I'm thinking 47 or 48 wins and an 8th seed are about what I can realistically hope for.

 

[HailBlazers]

What a Gloomy City.

Summer Can't arrive fast enough.

I'm fine with Felton, Less so on Passing on Faried. But hey, lock-out happens G.O. comes back raring to go and I'll have confidence in this team, against anyone.

 

[Ed O]

I'm called pessimistic when the team is stagnating or getting worse ... and optimistic when it's getting better.

I think that it speaks more about name-callers than about me, but I might be wrong.

Ed O.

 

[The_Lillard_King]

Anyone else bothered a little by that first answer . . . it sounded so patronizing to me.

Only been to BE a couple of times (linking over from this site). Good for him for being such a Blazer fanatic he spends all this time on the webstie givng Blazer fans who want it, lots of info about the Blazers.

Can't fault him for being passionate, but he does seem a little full of himself.

 

[Natebishop3]

Kinda hard avoiding pessimism with how things have gone the past two seasons. The biggest contributing factors have been Greg's health and Roy's healthy, but I think a lot of things came crashing down on us. Rudy turned out to be a bust, we traded Martell for a stiff, Frye left and had a big year, Bayless was traded for a draft pick, Joel was injured twice.... it was just one thing after another.

 

[gatorpops]

I'm not optomistic or pesimistic, but I am always HOPEFULL!

This team is very good if they can get all/most of the parts playing together.

But that is true of all the teams in the NBA.

If Miami were to lose Wade to injury, they would be like Cleveland all over again.

If Orlando would lose Howard..........

If Dallas were to lose Dirk.............

If Porland gets the parts back i give them a good chance to win it all.

So I am HOPEFUL, thats all.

 

[e_blazer]

The way I see it, it's been mostly bad news around the Blazers since the 2007 draft. I'd list them out, but it's too depressing and we all know the stories. Sure, there have been pluses too, but when so many of the bad breaks have been to franchise-level pieces, the gloom of that tends to outweigh the positive stories about overcoming odds, etc. It's understandable that there's a tendency to be a bit shell shocked by 4 years of hard knocks to what was supposed to have been a contending team by now. That said, I still think that Oden is the key to whether the Blazers can make it into the top tier of teams or not with this core group of athletes. For some, that statement is enough to say let's throw in the towel and rebuild. For others, it's a case of him being 23 and, unlike Roy, not having injuries that you know he's never to recover from. I'm still optimistic that we'll see 5 or more years of Oden being a beast and that putting him in a lineup with a front line that includes Aldridge and Wallace is going to terrorize the league during that time period. I think Felton is a lateral move from Andre, but he's young enough and good enough to fill the bill as the playmaker for the next 5 years. Optimism or pessimism aside, the Blazers will go as far as Oden's health can carry them.

 

[Ghost Pepper]

Um.... as for the Paul Allen statements and this is his team and he can do whatever he wants yada yada yada.....

True...

At the same time Blazer fans could also not renew their season tickets, spending many thousands a year on them, drink 8 dollar beers, and buy 5x to expensive food while selling out the Rose Garden yearly and sporting a fan base other teams are envious of!!!! Including the World Champion Dallas Mavs.... This done while management withholds franchise players availability and accurate medical reports for the following year to sell those same season tickets, which is fraud on a certain level! ie"ODEN/ROY"

We Blazer fans are buying a very expensive product as season ticket holders, if this was a new car it would have been returned for factory defects and multiple ones at that.


So if PA wants to be a general manager/owner like Al Davis we can also choose not to show up and this team can become the Nets or Wizards in a years time and then see how quickly things change! PA is not respecting what he has here and he's shown that year after year.

PA has shown he's incompetent on multiple levels "to many to list" and yet the Blazer faithful have stood loyal to him like they have Oden for how long?? Now it's time for both of them to produce and show they deserve this BLIND loyalty, both have a lot to prove in the next few years. I have a ton more faith in ODEN than I do PA!

PA better realize that the fans can make or break him as an owner here. A new owner with a "basketball mind" will get the same response if not better from the Blazer Faithful. We have a product in Portland and it's called Blazer Fans and decades of sell out crowds are attractive to any entity looking to own in the future. So sitting out a year as a fan base to get a better owner might be the best thing the Blazers Nation could do long term. It's not like anyone believes we are going to win it all next year.

I think PA and Nate need to go ruin Seattle for the next decade and stop giving the best fans in the NBA such an ill thought out product. Hey they can sign ROY as their first player as a Sonic, wont even need to do a physical. HA!

 

[jlprk]

PA is not respecting what he has here and he's shown that year after year. PA has shown he's incompetent on multiple levels "to many to list" and yet the Blazer faithful have stood loyal to him like they have Oden for how long??...I have a ton more faith in ODEN than I do PA!

List the team transactions of the last few years. Every step up has come from Paul Allen paying off another owner for an enormous contract, or throwing in $3 million, which most owners desperately need. Every step down has come from a mediocre draft choice. Sometimes the two were combined--Pritchard got Allen to buy him a pick, then squandered it on a bad choice.

With a normal cheap owner, all we have in those 4 years are the steps down, not any steps up. Without Allen constantly subsidizing this team, we are .300. The Oregonian loves Pritchard and hates Allen, twisting the perceptions of fans like you 180 degrees from reality.

PA better realize that the fans can make or break him as an owner here. A new owner with a "basketball mind" will get the same response if not better from the Blazer Faithful.

Which owner with playing experience are you thinking of? The one who plays your fantasy games on your computer?

 

[Ghost Pepper]

JLPRK

"With a normal cheap owner, all we have in those 4 years are the steps down, not any steps up. Without Allen constantly subsidizing this team, we are .300. The Oregonian loves Pritchard and hates Allen, twisting the perceptions of fans like you 180 degrees from reality."


I never said Allen was cheap anywhere. Your words! I said he makes poor decisions and his lack of basketball knowledge has been more than evident for years now. Very different points. Fire your GM on draft night and still have him pick for you, not smart! Fire your next GM who got ya Wallace for Dante and Joel also not smart... not having a GM of worth ready for this years draft and we got hosed, also not smart. That's three bone head manuevers in 14 months that make many wonder if Paul's ego is overshadowing the teams potential success. It's clear he's not easy to work for and that too will make it hard for this franchise to improve because who wants to work for a guy and be fired 6 months later?

This is what I'm referring to!

"Which owner with playing experience are you thinking of? The one who plays your fantasy games on your computer? "

Basketball minded owners, never said "playing experience" once again your words. A good owner should allow his GM's to do their jobs, PA doesn't! Cuban atleast knows enough to say I need to listen to my GM. Allen thinks he knows more than his GM's and relies on non basketball entities like the Vulcans to shape his opinions. Follow me now?

 

[jlprk]

I don't think the draft would have gone any differently if we'd had a GM in place. It probably would have gone worse, based upon recent drafts when we did have one.

The good teams hardly use the draft. Their main players come from trades and FA signings. This glorification of the draft is an artifact from the Pritchard years. He did well the first time and everyone expected it to be Christmas thereafter. He was unable to do anything except scout the draft.

You don't like the way things went in the draft? With pick #21, I expected nothing and got it. Vulcans seem capable of making trades/FAs without a GM. They did last summer, and Cho was hired at the last minute and got credit.

 

[Mediocre Man]

I don't think the draft would have gone any differently if we'd had a GM in place. It probably would have gone worse, based upon recent drafts when we did have one.

The good teams hardly use the draft. Their main players come from trades and FA signings. This glorification of the draft is an artifact from the Pritchard years. He did well the first time and everyone expected it to be Christmas thereafter. He was unable to do anything except scout the draft.

You don't like the way things went in the draft? With pick #21, I expected nothing and got it. Vulcans seem capable of making trades/FAs without a GM. They did last summer, and Cho was hired at the last minute and got credit.

The non glam cities all use the draft to build good teams.

SA, Utah, OKC, POR, and many others. Even teams like ORL, DAL, LAL, BOS, MIA used the draft to get their best player/core.

 

[julius]

The non glam cities all use the draft to build good teams.

SA, Utah, OKC, POR, and many others. Even teams like ORL, DAL, LAL, BOS, MIA used the draft to get their best player/core.

The Mavs have 0 players they drafted. They traded for Dirk.

The Lakers traded for Kobe, didn't draft him. They traded for Gasol, didn't draft him. they traded for Odom, they didn't draft him. They only drafted Bynum and Fisher.

The Celtics traded for half of their "core".
The Heat drafted Wade, but won the title as much because of Shaq as they did Wade, and this year it was as much Lebron and Bosh as it was Wade.
I'm not sure that any of the teams you said "even teams like" could realistically be said to have used the draft to get their best player/core outside of MAYBE Orlando.

 

[Nikolokolus]

The Mavs have 0 players they drafted. They traded for Dirk.

The Lakers traded for Kobe, didn't draft him. They traded for Gasol, didn't draft him. they traded for Odom, they didn't draft him. They only drafted Bynum and Fisher.

The Celtics traded for half of their "core".
The Heat drafted Wade, but won the title as much because of Shaq as they did Wade, and this year it was as much Lebron and Bosh as it was Wade.
I'm not sure that any of the teams you said "even teams like" could realistically be said to have used the draft to get their best player/core outside of MAYBE Orlando.

In general I would exclude draft day trades for draft picks from this kind of calculus (teams are still essentially using their talent evaluation process to identify draft the player they want). And even if a team did trade drafted players to get the players they wanted it's still necessary to draft quality players; collecting scrubs won't get you over the hump.

 

[Mediocre Man]

The Mavs have 0 players they drafted. They traded for Dirk.

The Lakers traded for Kobe, didn't draft him. They traded for Gasol, didn't draft him. they traded for Odom, they didn't draft him. They only drafted Bynum and Fisher.

The Celtics traded for half of their "core".
The Heat drafted Wade, but won the title as much because of Shaq as they did Wade, and this year it was as much Lebron and Bosh as it was Wade.
I'm not sure that any of the teams you said "even teams like" could realistically be said to have used the draft to get their best player/core outside of MAYBE Orlando.

Please. The L*kers and the Mavs traded for their superstars on draft day. The Celtics traded players they drafted high for their current players as well. Teams are built through the draft 9 times out of 10

 

[jlprk]

Whichever of those sides is true, my point is that now that we don't get high picks, we need to emphasize trades and free agents. The draft should be an afterthought, a means to fill out the bottom half of the roster and to gather chips to trade, or throw-ins in trades.

Bring back Bob!