Something Nobody Talks About…

[blazerkor]

is it really "mortgaging the future" when it's one draft pick? It's a big risk for sure, but one pick doesn't make the future, and there is the crap shoot nature of the draft

2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4 Dion Waiters
5 Thomas Robinson
1 Anthony Bennett
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Otto Porter Jr.
4 Cody Zeller
2 Jabari Parker
2 D'Angelo Russell
3 Jahlil Okafor
1 Ben Simmons
4 Dragan Bender
5 Kris Dunn
1 Markelle Fultz
2 Lonzo Ball
4 Josh Jackson
1 Deandre Ayton
2 Marvin Bagley III
1 Zion Williamson
3 RJ Barrett
4 De'Andre Hunter
2 James Wiseman
4 Patrick Williams
5 Isaac Okoro
5 Jalen Suggs

If Dame and Chauncey can help Zion at all then Zion is an MVP level player playing 75% of games and especially making an impact in the playoffs. Zion is the perfect 1a to Dame’s 1b. With the leadership we have along with Shae, Jeremi and a new center would be an amazing starting five. Then you have Matisse, the guy we sign with the TPMLE and hopefully another draft pick or two and you have a contender.

 

[RonBrewer]

Zion is exactly the kind of riks that would pay off. Seen so many post "We can't get enough with the 3 to build around Dame". Welp, i beg to differ. Zion is that dude. Sure it has to work out. But Maybe Portland is the spot for him.

We'll see if it even happens

 

[Sedatedfork]

What if 33-35 year old Dame suffers an injury?

With such a small window to win, one injury could close the window completely. Then we would end up having traded a potential all star in the 3rd pick to pair with Sharpe the next decade for essentially nothing.

What if every other player in the NBA gets injured and the Blazers win the championship by default?

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Nobody was talking about it and then you had to spoil it by talking about it

 

[wizenheimer]

Zion playing 30 games a year for 3 years before being out of the league and we have nothing to show for it is the mortgaging of the future.

We dont do well with oft-injured players.

yeah, I get that

I'm just saying there are no guarantees. Portland might use that 3rd pick on a player that will bust. And yeah, Scoot or Miller could bust...that's what I was showing with that list

to be sure a 3rd pick has high value. And Zion may very well bust because he can't stay healthy and is an undisciplined slob. But there is a chance that he could get his shit together and be a steady player who plays 65 games a season. Like you, I think that's very doubtful. But the talent he has when he's healthy is the other side of that equation

yes, his contract can be a boat anchor if he doesn't get better. But it would only be a single pick mortgaged if the rumors are true. That's not the sum total of the 'future'

I don't think the Blazers would do it in any event. And I doubt they trade the pick for Ingram. So the worry is probably misplaced. Besides that, if New Orleans is doing this to get Scoot they'll be talking to Charlotte before Portland

 

[SharpesTriumph]

is it really "mortgaging the future" when it's one draft pick? It's a big risk for sure, but one pick doesn't make the future, and there is the crap shoot nature of the draft

2 Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4 Dion Waiters
5 Thomas Robinson
1 Anthony Bennett
2 Victor Oladipo
3 Otto Porter Jr.
4 Cody Zeller
2 Jabari Parker
2 D'Angelo Russell
3 Jahlil Okafor
1 Ben Simmons
4 Dragan Bender
5 Kris Dunn
1 Markelle Fultz
2 Lonzo Ball
4 Josh Jackson
1 Deandre Ayton
2 Marvin Bagley III
1 Zion Williamson
3 RJ Barrett
4 De'Andre Hunter
2 James Wiseman
4 Patrick Williams
5 Isaac Okoro
5 Jalen Suggs

These lists are like the anchorman quote "30% of the time it works every single time"

Stupid list - could make one that has every name of top 5 picks as a hall of famer.

The top3 prospects in this draft are thought of much higher than the average draft. Projections aren't foolproof, but they are an indicator.

Can you list all the short PG's that led their teams to titles in their 30's? Here I'll help - in the last 55 years its happened once. I'd say your draft list seems like a way better path than trying to build a contender around an aging Dame;

How about how many times a player Dame's age (33) or older has lead his team to a title? 48 of 55 years (87%) of the time its been a younger player. After this year when Dame is 34 it becomes only 4 times - so 93% of the time its a younger player.

Nikola Jokić
Stephen Curry
Giannis Antetokounmpo
LeBron James
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
Kevin Durant
LeBron James
Andre Iguodala
Kawhi Leonard
LeBron James
LeBron James
Dirk Nowitzki
Kobe Bryant
Kobe Bryant
Paul Pierce
Tony Parker
Dwyane Wade
Tim Duncan
Chauncey Billups
Tim Duncan
Shaquille O'Neal
Shaquille O'Neal
Shaquille O'Neal
Tim Duncan
Michael Jordan
Michael Jordan
Michael Jordan
Hakeem Olajuwon
Hakeem Olajuwon
Michael Jordan
Michael Jordan
Michael Jordan
Isiah Thomas
Joe Dumars
James Worthy
Magic Johnson
Larry Bird
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Larry Bird
Moses Malone
Magic Johnson
Cedric Maxwell
Magic Johnson
Dennis Johnson
Wes Unseld
Bill Walton
Jo Jo White
Rick Barry
John Havlicek
Willis Reed
Wilt Chamberlain
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar
Willis Reed
Jerry West

 

[SharpesTriumph]

LBJ 2020
Jordan 1998
Kareem 1985
Wilt 1972

Those are the only players to lead a team to a title at the age of 34 or older. So that would give us a window of likely ONE year this very season for Dame to lead the Blazers to a title before it becomes very statistically unlikely.

Yeah the idea that Dame is too old and it may be time to pivot to the next generation of Blazers certainly has history as an argument on its side.

 

[PtldPlatypus]

LBJ 2020
Jordan 1998
Kareem 1985
Wilt 1972

Those are the only players to lead a team to a title at the age of 34 or older. So that would give us a window of likely ONE year this very season for Dame to lead the Blazers to a title before it becomes very statistically unlikely.

Yeah the idea that Dame is too old and it may be time to pivot to the next generation of Blazers certainly has history as an argument on its side.

Wow--that is an outstanding point.

 

[wizenheimer]

Stupid list - could make one that has every name of top 5 picks as a hall of famer.

you veered off on a tangent

that list I made was in the context of gauging the risk of a Zion for #3 trade vs mortgaging the future. I was trying to show the uncertainty of all the options, including the potential of busting on a pick. Sure, Portland could hit a homer on the 3rd pick; but they could hit a homer on a Zion trade too and it's a lot easier to visualize the arc of the homer with Zion because we've actually seen him on an NBA floor

 

[HansenYang]

you veered off on a tangent

that list I made was in the context of gauging the risk of a Zion for #3 trade vs mortgaging the future. I was trying to show the uncertainty of all the options, including the potential of busting on a pick. Sure, Portland could hit a homer on the 3rd pick; but they could hit a homer on a Zion trade too and it's a lot easier to visualize the arc of the homer with Zion because we've actually seen him on an NBA floor

And play at an MVP level.

 

[SharpesTriumph]

Wow--that is an outstanding point.

Yeah I was a bit shocked when I pulled up all of this data. Originally I was looking at short PG's leading teams to titles, which is rare as well. But guys in their mid 30's just haven't lead teams to win titles.

Dame will be as old this season as when Jordan won the 5th of his 6 titles. Kobe won his last 5th ring at the age Dame was when CJ was still on the Blazers two years ago. Dirk won his only ring late in his career, but he was younger than Dame is today.

Even Duncan who is the beacon of longevity won four of his five rings 3 years prior to Dame's upcoming season. The one ring Duncan won that would be in Dame's future was at the age of 37 with a 62 win deep Spurs team that had Kawhi as MVP, Manu, and Parker. I don't see any path to the Blazers providing that help.

To all of those who are saying the Blazers need to go all in now to try and win titles with Dame still in his prime - I think it might be far too late. Blame Olshey or whoever you wish - but those actions needed to happen 5+ years ago. History shows players this old that are even MVPs can't lead teams to titles. Dame has never quite been at that MVP level either.

 

[illmatic99]

LBJ 2020
Jordan 1998
Kareem 1985
Wilt 1972

Those are the only players to lead a team to a title at the age of 34 or older. So that would give us a window of likely ONE year this very season for Dame to lead the Blazers to a title before it becomes very statistically unlikely.

Yeah the idea that Dame is too old and it may be time to pivot to the next generation of Blazers certainly has history as an argument on its side.

This is a compelling argument. But my only counter is... Steph won at age 33 and Dame's game is probably the closest facismile to Curry's. And he did all this in the current era.

Granted we obviously dont have the institutional knowhow on how to win that GS does, but my point remains.