Sporting News: Blazers a better "team" than Heat

[Shooter]

There’s much talk around the NBA these days about how concerned the league should be with the formation of so-called “superteams” . . .

But watch what Portland, a team without an All-Star (thanks to the league leaving LaMarcus Aldridge out in what James called the biggest All-Star snub in NBA history) did to the Heat’s galaxy on Tuesday, and it’s hard not to think the whole superteam issue is a bit overrated. That’s because the Blazers picked apart the Heat with superb team play in Miami, winning 105-96 and sending the Heat deeper into their teary-eyed tailspin.

http://aol.sportingnews.com/nba/story/2011-03-08/aldridge-blazers-bench-roll-heat-105-96

 

[The Professional Fan]

No doubt that the Blazers played better team ball tonight. In fact, it was blatantly obvious. Tonight.

My biggest "concern" for the Heat? I honestly believe that there's a subterranean volcano brewing between Wade and James. And it will eventually explode.

 

[Natebishop3]

This is pretty much what I figured since last summer. It's three guys who used to be THE GUY on their respective teams, now they are suddenly thrown together and they're supposed to make it work. This isn't the Olympics or the All-Star game, this is the NBA and "teams" always win out over mere superstars. The Heat are only two superstars, one All-Star, and a bunch of over the hill has-beens.

 

[e_blazer]

Sounds to me like it's Bosh who is going to have the first meltdown.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/news/story?id=6196012

 

[The Professional Fan]

Sounds to me like it's Bosh who is going to have the first meltdown.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/news/story?id=6196012

Perfect.

 

[Natebishop3]

Imagine if they had signed Amare instead of Bosh....

 

[Fez Hammersticks]

[video=youtube;KH8faQTaDuI]

 

[Minstrel]

Imagine if they had signed Amare instead of Bosh....

I don't think they'd be any better off. I don't think Stoudemire is a better talent or a better fit. He's also a face-up big man who likes to shoot or drive. Like Bosh, he doesn't provide much interior defensive presence.

The problem, which I suggested was the thing that might derail them (though I was mostly a believer in the summer), is that there are diminishing returns on the value of superstars to a team. The first superstar matters the most, the second superstar matters a lot but less. The third superstar helps less and already starts to get into the "redundant" category. Only one ball, only a certain number of possessions...after two top scoring options, the third one is going to struggle to maintain production.

An example of three major superstars coming together were the Lakers of Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor. They were all amazing, a better trio than James, Wade and Bosh, but they didn't win a title. Someone was always being under-utilized. It was only after Baylor was gone that West and Chamberlain won a title (and ran off the NBA record for consecutive wins).

I don't think there have been many such trios. I don't view Boston lately as one...Allen and Pierce weren't superstars, and weren't even in their prime, when their Big Three came together. I think that Miami is doing something rare and not something with an established track record of success. If they had someone like Phil Jackson, a guy with a proven history of getting big-time players to mesh, I'd like their chances a lot better. I think maximizing James, Wade and Bosh is a tricky problem and Spoelstra may not be up to it.

 

[Pinwheel1]

As I recall the common perception last summer is they would not win a championship the first year, but after that look out. They will add players each year. I don't think anything has changed. In my mind they are right on track. If they are smart they will trade Bosh for a more physical defensive player.

 

[dreamcloud]

 

[KingSpeed]

This is pretty much what I figured since last summer. It's three guys who used to be THE GUY on their respective teams, now they are suddenly thrown together and they're supposed to make it work. This isn't the Olympics or the All-Star game, this is the NBA and "teams" always win out over mere superstars. The Heat are only two superstars, one All-Star, and a bunch of over the hill has-beens.

Funny that you mention the Olympics. When these three played together in the Worlds in 2006, they couldn't win Gold. Wasn't till Kobe joined in 08, that they won. They came into this season, thinking it was going to be easy to win 7-8 titles and that they were already the greatest threesome of all time. Then they sucked early in the season and people said it would "take time.". Now, it's March, all three players are in their prime and ace played over 60 games together and they're on a 5 game losing streak with no win in sight. I love it.

 

[Minstrel]

It's pretty amazing, looking at their roster...they literally are 3 stars and all scrubs beyond that. The highest PER outside their big three is 12.9. They have a bunch of players at around 10 PER or below.

It's interesting...if some of their players were two years younger, they'd have pretty great depth. Mike Bibby, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Udonis Haslem, Erick Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse. All of these are guys who would have been pretty useful support players a couple of years ago. But now they're all terrible.

 

[PapaG]

It's pretty amazing, looking at their roster...they literally are 3 stars and all scrubs beyond that. The highest PER outside their big three is 12.9. They have a bunch of players at around 10 PER or below.
It's interesting...if some of their players were two years younger, they'd have pretty great depth. Mike Bibby, Mike Miller, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Udonis Haslem, Erick Dampier, Jerry Stackhouse. All of these are guys who would have been pretty useful support players a couple of years ago. But now they're all terrible.

To be fair, their highest usage rate outside of the "Big Three" is House at 16.7, and then Stackhouse at 16. It's tough to have a high PER when you rarely get to be involved in the end of the play.

More noteworthy to me is that James and Wade both have a USG rate >31, yet PERs under 27.

 

[The Professional Fan]

Why don't they use House more? I think that's odd. He's a complete asshole, and I really dislike him, but I think he's proven to be a solid outside shooter. He's been dog-housed.

 

[Rhal]

This had me cracking up.

 

[<-=*PdX*=->]

No doubt that the Blazers played better team ball tonight. In fact, it was blatantly obvious. Tonight.

My biggest "concern" for the Heat? I honestly believe that there's a subterranean volcano brewing between Wade and James. And it will eventually explode.

Its a convergent boundary. One side will give, allowing one to rise over the other. Who will rise remains to be seen, but the lava will flow. Pyroclastic flows may take out everyone below.


/end geeky rant

 

[Nikolokolus]

[video=youtube;KH8faQTaDuI]

I'm not certain but that might be the funniest thing I've seen in a day or two

 

[Draco]

Hurry, everyone go panic! Its March and the Heat are only the 3rd seed!

Well, Boston barely won 50 games last year then went to a game 7 in the finals.

The Heat will be very dangerous when the playoffs come around, LeBron is the best player in the NBA and Wade is 2nd or 3rd. That team will be fine. Miami may have lost 5 straight, but they didn't lose 26 straight.

I'm proud of our boys for the big win tonight, but I still would fear the Heat in a playoff series more than any team except perhaps LA. Wade had 38 and Lebron was 2 assists from a triple double, and it just looked like ordinary performances from those two. The rest of the team will not play this bad all the time. When a few guys start clicking, the Heat will be more than fine.

 

[jlprk]

Its a convergent boundary. One side will give, allowing one to rise over the other. Who will rise remains to be seen, but the lava will flow. Pyroclastic flows may take out everyone below.

/end geeky rant

I didn't know you're a Vulcan.

 

[LittleAlex]

I think your "Big Three" can only really have one top 10 player.
Miami has two and that's a real issue.

For the Celtics, you have a top ten player in Garnett, and three all-star but not all league players who all have one thing they do super well. Rondo passing, Allen Shooting and Pierce clutch play.

The Lakers have something similar with a top ten guy in Kobe, and 2 or 3 all star level players in Gasol, Odom and Bynum.

That's appears to be the magic forumula.

And I think the teams in the league that is both young and has this mixture are the Bulls and Thunder.
Perhaps if LA can continue his excellent play Portland can get there as well.

 

[Nate4Prez]

I think your "Big Three" can only really have one top 10 player.
Miami has two and that's a real issue.

For the Celtics, you have a top ten player in Garnett, and three all-star but not all league players who all have one thing they do super well. Rondo passing, Allen Shooting and Pierce clutch play.

The Lakers have something similar with a top ten guy in Kobe, and 2 or 3 all star level players in Gasol, Odom and Bynum.

That's appears to be the magic forumula.

And I think the teams in the league that is both young and has this mixture are the Bulls and Thunder.
Perhaps if LA can continue his excellent play Portland can get there as well.

Good point. The Spurs too, with Duncan, Parker, and Manu.

 

[andalusian]

 

[blazerboy30]

I think your "Big Three" can only really have one top 10 player.
Miami has two and that's a real issue.

For the Celtics, you have a top ten player in Garnett, and three all-star but not all league players who all have one thing they do super well. Rondo passing, Allen Shooting and Pierce clutch play.

The Lakers have something similar with a top ten guy in Kobe, and 2 or 3 all star level players in Gasol, Odom and Bynum.

That's appears to be the magic forumula.

And I think the teams in the league that is both young and has this mixture are the Bulls and Thunder.
Perhaps if LA can continue his excellent play Portland can get there as well.

The Bulls had two top 10-players.

Not saying you're wrong, just pointing out a counter-example.

 

[hasoos]

Good point. The Spurs too, with Duncan, Parker, and Manu.

Yes but there is another common denominator there that needs to be looked at when considering this. That is the dominant front line player that actually plays in the paint. Bosh is a face up guy, who never plays with his back to the basket. He also isn't super big on rebounding. Duncan, Gasol, and KG are the opposite. They live in the paint and love to play D, and all of them have the back to the basket game.

That is why it is so important that Aldridge has developed his game for Portland. Not many teams have a guy who can create a post presence like that. It is old school and hard to deal with. It also creates spacing nightmares for the opponents if the guards are hitting from the perimieter.

 

[BlazerCaravan]

The Bulls had two top 10-players.

Not saying you're wrong, just pointing out a counter-example.

But Pippen started his career and spent most of it as second banana to the #1 player in the league. In that regard, his situation is unique.

 

[Natebishop3]

I don't think they'd be any better off. I don't think Stoudemire is a better talent or a better fit. He's also a face-up big man who likes to shoot or drive. Like Bosh, he doesn't provide much interior defensive presence.

The problem, which I suggested was the thing that might derail them (though I was mostly a believer in the summer), is that there are diminishing returns on the value of superstars to a team. The first superstar matters the most, the second superstar matters a lot but less. The third superstar helps less and already starts to get into the "redundant" category. Only one ball, only a certain number of possessions...after two top scoring options, the third one is going to struggle to maintain production.

An example of three major superstars coming together were the Lakers of Jerry West, Wilt Chamberlain and Elgin Baylor. They were all amazing, a better trio than James, Wade and Bosh, but they didn't win a title. Someone was always being under-utilized. It was only after Baylor was gone that West and Chamberlain won a title (and ran off the NBA record for consecutive wins).

I don't think there have been many such trios. I don't view Boston lately as one...Allen and Pierce weren't superstars, and weren't even in their prime, when their Big Three came together. I think that Miami is doing something rare and not something with an established track record of success. If they had someone like Phil Jackson, a guy with a proven history of getting big-time players to mesh, I'd like their chances a lot better. I think maximizing James, Wade and Bosh is a tricky problem and Spoelstra may not be up to it.

Imagine if they had signed David Lee instead of Bosh...

 

[HailBlazers]

LMA owns > D.Lee/C.Bosh

Lebron James calls Lamarcus Aldridge "the biggest snub in all star history"

http://www.examiner.com/portland-tr...us-aldridge-the-biggest-snub-all-star-history

And that was before the game!!

 

[Natebishop3]

LMA owns > D.Lee/C.Bosh

Well yeah... but LMA wasn't available to the Heat last summer

 

[HailBlazers]

I wonder how that crow tastes to the people trying to put K.Love on the same Level as LMA

 

[Blaz06Draft]

I posted this over the summer, after the Decision and the formation of the 3-superstar team:

Miami’s Potential Achilles Heel: Getting Alphas to Share Story-edit

The assembly of Miami’s “superteam” brought together three of the best players in the league. LeBron James and Dwayne Wade had the two highest PERs in the league last year, and Chris Bosh was fourth. A team with the two best wings and the best big man (according to PER) should never lose, right?

The mirror image of these high PERs is high “usage rates” (USG%) an advanced statistic that measures the percent of a team’s possessions “used” by a player while on the court. Wade and James were one-two in USG%, and Bosh was tenth. Each was the top dog on their respective teams, and DWade and LeBron were the league’s top alphas.

Statistically, DWade had a USG% of 34.9%, LeBron had a USG% of 33.5%, and Bosh had a USG% of 28.7%. Among the sixteen playoff teams, only Melo, Kobe, and Durant, in addition to Dwade and LeBron, had USG% in excess of 30%. Perhaps not coincidentally, these are the players that are considered to be MVP candidates. Outside of these MVP-candidate superstars, the alphas of playoff teams typically range from 29% to 25%. The median for a team’s alpha is 28%.

The “beta” or second dog has a median of 24%, with seven teams exceeding 25% and the rest at 23-24%.

The “gamma” or third dog has a median of 22%, with seven teams exceeding 23% and the rest below 23%.

Based on last year’s USG%, DWade is Miami’s alpha, LeBron their beta, and Bosh their gamma. If this dog pack were to share the ball at playoff team median levels, DWade USG% would have to drop from 35% to 28%. He’d have to decrease his “alpha-ness” by 20%. LeBron would have to accept “beta-ness” and reduce his USG% from 33% to 24%, or decrease his “alpha-ness” by 28%. Bosh would have accept a drop from alpha dog to gamma dog, and reduce his USG% from 29% to 22%, a drop in “alpha-ness” of 23%. So three of the top four PER players in the league would have to decrease their “alpha-ness” by at least 20%.

The playoff team with the highest concentration of total USG% for its alpha, beta, and gamma players as a combination was Denver, which totaled 84%. Miami’s alpha dog pack totaled 96%. So if Miami were to equal the most concentrated playoff team, as a group they would have to reduce USG% by 12%. Under this scenario, DWade would drop to 30.5%, LeBron to 29.3%, and Bosh to 25.1%.

Generally, PER is roughly proportional to USG%: high PER players have high USG%. So Miami is asking these three top alphas in the league to effectively reduce their PERs by 12% to as much as 28%. LeBron’s PER could range from 22.4 (Manu Ginobli) to 27.4 (DWade). DWade’s PER could range from 22.4 (Manu Ginobli) to 24.6 (Tim Duncan). Bosh’s PER would be about 22.0 (David Lee). These are generally great but not superstar numbers.

If contending for an MVP requires a USG% above 32% – Dwade, LeBron, Melo, Kobe, and Durant were above this level last year – both LeBron and DWade would fall short, even in the best scenario, in which they were about 30% each.

It will interesting to see how the alpha egos accept dropping out of the top spots in the league. What if LeBron drops to third or even twelth in the “PER race?” How would DWade deal with dropping to seventh or twelfth in the league? How about Bosh dropping to fourteenth in PER, and dropping statistically to the eighth best big man in the league? What if none of them put up MVP numbers (>32% USG%)?

It will be interesting to see how these alphas meld on the court. If they are as dominant as expected, I imagine that the PER sacrifice will not be a problem. But if dominance expectations are not met, alpha ego flare ups might make great blog fodder!