Sporting News: Blazers are #3 next year

[Eastoff]

It seems to me, the rankings should be as follows (assuming all teams are at full strength):
1.) LA
2.) Boston
3.) San Antonio
4.) Orlando
5.) Denver
6.) Cleveland
7.) Houston
8.) Portland
9.) Hornets

I would question SA and Boston so high up, simply because of age. SA was the OLDEST team in the league last year. You don't even have Dallas on there and yet they basically swept SA. Is Ginobli that important? I can't imagine Boston is too spry as well where it counts, the big three. Injuries like KG are going to be more frequent with age. I would also like to see Portland a little closer to Denver based on regular season match ups and Dallas above NO.

 

[Eastoff]

Well I guess your idea of important injury and mine are two different things.

I agree about Oden getting the injury hurt, but I mean something like Roy or Aldridge being out for 4 months, the key pieces like KG going down and all the other "OMG if we hadn't lost (Player X) we would have rolled the Lakers!!!11!!1"

 

[hasoos]

I would question SA and Boston so high up, simply because of age. SA was the OLDEST team in the league last year. You don't even have Dallas on there and yet they basically swept SA. Is Ginobli that important? I can't imagine Boston is too spry as well where it counts, the big three. Injuries like KG are going to be more frequent with age. I would also like to see Portland a little closer to Denver based on regular season match ups and Dallas above NO.

Ginobili is hugely important. But it should also be noted, with the severity of his ankle injury, that he might never play again. The Spurs had no chance without Ginobili. With him it is much different, although again they are a year older. Without Ginobili, they lack scoring. Boston showed that they can compete even with KG out this year. They took Orlando as far as Cleveland did, without KG.

 

[Shooter]

OK, Little Alex could have worded his post a bit more artfully - but his underlying point is still valid. Some fans are prepared to just assume that the team is somehow going to get a LOT better without any significant roster moves. That is a wild leap into the void.

Well, how much better can you get than 54 wins--60? Are you saying that we couldn't win 6 more games next year???

 

[STOMP]

OK, Little Alex could have worded his post a bit more artfully - but his underlying point is still valid. Some fans are prepared to just assume that the team is somehow going to get a LOT better without any significant roster moves. That is a wild leap into the void.

not really. I play fantasy hoops every year and one of the strategies that I employ is projecting 2nd year players to improve... believe me, it's served me well. Guys generally get comfortable with what the league is all about and settle in with their new digs. They often show dramatic results of being surrounded by professional trainers, nutritionists, coaches, and being able to focus on hoops all the time. Physically males continue to develop until about 25, so 2nd year players have that arc going for them as well.

Improvement for 2nd year players isn't a given, but it is the norm.

STOMP

 

[hasoos]

I agree about Oden getting the injury hurt, but I mean something like Roy or Aldridge being out for 4 months, the key pieces like KG going down and all the other "OMG if we hadn't lost (Player X) we would have rolled the Lakers!!!11!!1"

Yea but if you think about it, maybe one of those might have got the Blazers 1 or 2 more wins, and into the number 2 seed instead of matched up with Houston. Then we could have got to run over a injured New Orleans team like a freight train, and get some playoff confidence rolling.

 

[hasoos]

not really. I play fantasy hoops every year and one of the strategies that I employ is projecting 2nd year players to improve... believe me, it's served me well. Guys generally get comfortable with what the league is all about and settle in with their new digs. They often show dramatic results of being surrounded by professional trainers, nutritionists, coaches, and being able to focus on hoops all the time. Physically males continue to develop until about 25, so 2nd year players have that arc going for them as well.

Improvement for 2nd year players isn't a given, but it is the norm.

STOMP

Yea but I think the thing that folks are leery of is the waiting 6 years for a guy to become an average player, at best. We can't afford any more Travis Outlaw's on the team. Players have to improve, and be ready to play in the league by their 3rd year at least, IMO.

 

[Minstrel]

Yea but I think the thing that folks are leery of is the waiting 6 years for a guy to become an average player, at best. We can't afford any more Travis Outlaw's on the team. Players have to improve, and be ready to play in the league by their 3rd year at least, IMO.

Rubio and Outlaw are nothing alike as prospects. Outlaw had barely played basketball when drafted, he had no basketball skills...he was purely an elite athlete that the Blazers hoped could translate his athleticism to basketball. Unsurprising that it took him a long time to really establish himself in the NBA.

Rubio definitely doesn't get by on athleticism. He's considered a very talented basketball player with skills that informed scouts believe will be elite.

I think Rubio is extremely likely to be a really good player in three seasons. I think he could very well be a contributor (probably off the bench) as a rookie and a good player by his second season

 

[Denny Crane]

not really. I play fantasy hoops every year and one of the strategies that I employ is projecting 2nd year players to improve... believe me, it's served me well. Guys generally get comfortable with what the league is all about and settle in with their new digs. They often show dramatic results of being surrounded by professional trainers, nutritionists, coaches, and being able to focus on hoops all the time. Physically males continue to develop until about 25, so 2nd year players have that arc going for them as well.

Improvement for 2nd year players isn't a given, but it is the norm.

STOMP

Durant sure kicked ass his 2nd season over his 1st.

Anyhow, #3 sure beats #12!

 

[Eastoff]

Hasoos, I am agreeing with you about those extra wins putting us over the top.

 

[mook]

Durant sure kicked ass his 2nd season over his 1st.

No doubt. If Oden enjoys that kind of increase in productivity in his second year......wow. And given Oden's circumstances, I'd say it's more likely than not.

 

[hasoos]

Rubio and Outlaw are nothing alike as prospects. Outlaw had barely played basketball when drafted, he had no basketball skills...he was purely an elite athlete that the Blazers hoped could translate his athleticism to basketball. Unsurprising that it took him a long time to really establish himself in the NBA.

Rubio definitely doesn't get by on athleticism. He's considered a very talented basketball player with skills that informed scouts believe will be elite.

I think Rubio is extremely likely to be a really good player in three seasons. I think he could very well be a contributor (probably off the bench) as a rookie and a good player by his second season

Yea I know all of that. The thing is, Rubio had holes in his game when I watched him before. So he has to improve, the reason being, is that his game is all based upon fast break buckets. In the half court he flat out sucks offensivly. In the playoffs, you end up playing slow, that is all there is to it, and if he has no half court to go with the up and down game, he will end up being a situational player, or a player who can only co-exist with certain coaches, Nate not being one I see him fitting with. So that being said, unless he has the work ethic to go along with the talent, I think he will struggle. I have no idea what his work ethic is or how hard he works now to be where he is at. It is never mentioned.

 

[EHL]

Has there ever been a team in NBA history that was the youngest in the league, won 54 games, and failed to get better the following season(s)? Barring injuries, the Blazers winning 60 games next season wouldn't surprise anyone. That might make them more than just a dark horse too, they'd be quite legit though probably more on the level of Suns/Mavs legit than Celtics/Lakers legit.

 

[Spud147]

Has there ever been a team in NBA history that was the youngest in the league, won 54 games, and failed to get better the following season(s)? Barring injuries, the Blazers winning 60 games next season wouldn't surprise anyone. That might make them more than just a dark horse too, they'd be quite legit though probably more on the level of Suns/Mavs legit than Celtics/Lakers legit.

Hmmm, a really objective take from a Laker fan. Who'da thunk it?

With their young and (hopefully) fully realized potential, I think they are going to be a Celtics/Lakers legit. The thought of all the planets aligning and the team staying healthy makes my heart race. I remember the championship... I hope all the younger Blazer fans get to feel what I felt when they won it all.

 

[Ed O]

Has there ever been a team in NBA history that was the youngest in the league, won 54 games, and failed to get better the following season(s)? Barring injuries, the Blazers winning 60 games next season wouldn't surprise anyone. That might make them more than just a dark horse too, they'd be quite legit though probably more on the level of Suns/Mavs legit than Celtics/Lakers legit.

Are you talking about this year's Suns/Mavs? The ones that had worse records than Portland?

Or are you talking about the Suns and Mavs of the past when they were winning ~60 games a year?

Ed O.

 

[huevonkiller]

I think the Blazers are a top 5 team, and a darkhorse for me as well.

 

[Spud147]

Are you talking about this year's Suns/Mavs? The ones that had worse records than Portland?

Or are you talking about the Suns and Mavs of the past when they were winning ~60 games a year?

Ed O.

I took it to mean when they were all "contenders". The somewhere between getting far in the play offs and dynasty.

 

[Da_O]

I think teams like LA, Boston, and Cleveland are clearly a level above us. We're in the same class as Denver, Houston, San Antonio, and Orlando.

 

[mgb]

At the end of the season Portland improved a lot especially on the road. As we are now I see no reason that improvement won't continue. If we do improve through the year like last year we will be a contender. Especially if we add a couple pieces without taking to much away.

 

[LittleAlex]

Has there ever been a team in NBA history that was the youngest in the league, won 54 games, and failed to get better the following season(s)? Barring injuries, the Blazers winning 60 games next season wouldn't surprise anyone. That might make them more than just a dark horse too, they'd be quite legit though probably more on the level of Suns/Mavs legit than Celtics/Lakers legit.

It's hard to say, since last year's Blazer team was the first in history to do so. I don't know if they will get better. No one knows if they are going to get better.

Certainly there is hope the young players will improve over the summer. A great deal of hope, actually. A real contender for the title has very few things they hope will happen and quite a few they are certain about. I believe Portland has too many questions right now to be in the same discussion as LA, Boston, Cleveland or Orlando.

When I made my list above, I was assuming all players are in perfect health and produce at the same level as last year. Obviously that isn't going to be the case, but it is all we have right now. With a health Duncan, Parker and Manu, the Spurs are a better team then Portland. Manu is extremely important to what that team does. Really, it can't be overstated.

 

[e_blazer]

I guess we have to have something to discuss, but these ratings about next season seem kind of pointless until we see what teams do in the draft, the FA market, and other trades this summer.

 

[STOMP]

When I made my list above, I was assuming all players are in perfect health and produce at the same level as last year. Obviously that isn't going to be the case, but it is all we have right now. With a health Duncan, Parker and Manu, the Spurs are a better team then Portland. Manu is extremely important to what that team does. Really, it can't be overstated.

no doubt on Manu. It seems that fans discount the Spurs possibly because they're sick of them, but given health they're as good as anyone. As a bigger fan of hoops in general then any single team, here's hoping for good health for Ginobli and the rest of the league's top players/clubs next season

STOMP

 

[oldmangrouch]

not really. I play fantasy hoops every year and one of the strategies that I employ is projecting 2nd year players to improve... believe me, it's served me well. Guys generally get comfortable with what the league is all about and settle in with their new digs. They often show dramatic results of being surrounded by professional trainers, nutritionists, coaches, and being able to focus on hoops all the time. Physically males continue to develop until about 25, so 2nd year players have that arc going for them as well.

Improvement for 2nd year players isn't a given, but it is the norm.

STOMP

Fair enough. My counter point is twofold.

A) Improvement may be the norm, but not the kind of huge leap we saw from LMA in his 2nd year. With 4 rookies, one might make a big leap, two might show modest progress, and one might faceplant. We just don't know.

B) It isn't just the 4 youngin's to consider. Joel is coming off the healthiest year of his career. Blake is coming off his best season. Both of those guys are more likely to regress than continue to improve. If you are going to rely on organic, internal development, you have to take that kind of factor into account as well. (I won't even get into Outlaw, who peaked in 07-08 and appears to be slowly dropping off despite his age)

 

[The Professional Fan]

Fair enough. My counter point is twofold.

A) Improvement may be the norm, but not the kind of huge leap we saw from LMA in his 2nd year. With 4 rookies, one might make a big leap, two might show modest progress, and one might faceplant. We just don't know.

B) It isn't just the 4 youngin's to consider. Joel is coming off the healthiest year of his career. Blake is coming off his best season. Both of those guys are more likely to regress than continue to improve. If you are going to rely on organic, internal development, you have to take that kind of factor into account as well. (I won't even get into Outlaw, who peaked in 07-08 and appears to be slowly dropping off despite his age)

What about adding a third scorer to our starting 5? Webster anyone? Does that not automatically make Portland better than last year? A third scorer will be HUGE for us. And I think it's completely safe to assume that Greg will be better considering he's another offseason removed from his microfracture. Just those two elements alone, that we can safely assume, will make Portland better than last season even if Batum, Bayless, Joel, Blake, etc...etc...stay the same.

 

[STOMP]

What about adding a third scorer to our starting 5? Webster anyone? Does that not automatically make Portland better than last year? A third scorer will be HUGE for us. And I think it's completely safe to assume that Greg will be better considering he's another offseason removed from his microfracture. Just those two elements alone, that we can safely assume, will make Portland better than last season even if Batum, Bayless, Joel, Blake, etc...etc...stay the same.

Webster hasn't shown to be a consistent scorer in his 3 full years. He's an example of a young player who really hasn't improved since he came into the league. I do agree with you on Greg though... between settling in, physical maturation, and recovering from his injury, he seems very likely to be much improved next season. Also, I'll believe LA and Roy are plateauing when I see it.

STOMP

 

[STOMP]

Improvement may be the norm, but not the kind of huge leap we saw from LMA in his 2nd year. With 4 rookies, one might make a big leap, two might show modest progress, and one might faceplant. We just don't know.

what do we really know in this world? Many things are possible, but when making predictions on what might unfold, historical trends are a good guide. Guys usually improve in their early 20's, plateau in their late 20's, and start to fade in their early 30's. A player who doesn't follow this arc is often a victim of injury... thankfully no current Blazer seems to be suffering from anything chronic.

I remain very optimistic about this club (as currently constructed) improving to contender status shortly. Thats not to say this is a lock or KP shouldn't consider major moves, but the move would have to make a lot of sense.

STOMP

 

[LittleAlex]

What about adding a third scorer to our starting 5? Webster anyone? Does that not automatically make Portland better than last year? A third scorer will be HUGE for us. And I think it's completely safe to assume that Greg will be better considering he's another offseason removed from his microfracture. Just those two elements alone, that we can safely assume, will make Portland better than last season even if Batum, Bayless, Joel, Blake, etc...etc...stay the same.

Webster was just cleared to do walking drills.


I repeat, WALKING drills. Not running, not jumping, only standing set shots.

Don't get your hopes up that Martell ever plays again. Apparently the broken bone is in a part of the foot that doesn't get much blood flow which makes healing very slow and problematic. Even if he does play, he has to make up for a whole year down when he wasn't exactly the most consistent dude before his injury.

Counting on Martell to be the difference maker is not such a good idea at this time.

 

[LittleAlex]

what do we really know in this world? Many things are possible, but when making predictions on what might unfold, historical trends are a good guide. Guys usually improve in their early 20's, plateau in their late 20's, and start to fade in their early 30's. A player who doesn't follow this arc is often a victim of injury... thankfully no current Blazer seems to be suffering from anything chronic.

I remain very optimistic about this club (as currently constructed) improving to contender status shortly. Thats not to say this is a lock or KP shouldn't consider major moves, but the move would have to make a lot of sense.

STOMP

This is the elephant in the living room. Portland does have one player that does suffer from chronic issues, Brandon Roy with his foot and knee. This is the sort of thing that makes me want Portland to win as soon as they can. I would hate for Portland to build for another 2 years, only to have Roy become more hampered and deep six their chances. I think they need to capitalize on his health while they can.

 

[Minstrel]

A) Improvement may be the norm, but not the kind of huge leap we saw from LMA in his 2nd year. With 4 rookies, one might make a big leap, two might show modest progress, and one might faceplant. We just don't know.

Yes, projecting significant improvement for each individual can be dicey, but as a group those four should be significanty better. Taking your hypothetical, one big leap, two modest improvements, one stagnant player...that would still improve the team significantly over last season.

No improvement, total, from that group of four players is very, very remote in likelihood.

 

[mook]

This is the elephant in the living room. Portland does have one player that does suffer from chronic issues, Brandon Roy with his foot and knee. This is the sort of thing that makes me want Portland to win as soon as they can. I would hate for Portland to build for another 2 years, only to have Roy become more hampered and deep six their chances. I think they need to capitalize on his health while they can.

It's a little heretical to say it, but I think we could contend in a few years even if Roy suffered some freak career-ending injury. It's certainly tougher, but we'd still likely have one of the top 3 or 4 centers in the NBA, plus a PF who will probably be at Chris Bosh-level. When you have that kind of a PF/C tandem and a decent mix of lesser talent to surround them, you are in a very good position to contend.