Notice State of the Blazers March 2025 (1 Viewer)

[Wizard Mentor]

Record:
Blazers record: 27-34, .443 (61 games)
Predicted final record: 37 wins
Games behind: 5 games behind final playin team.
Record Rank: 21st best in league

Stats:
3FG%: 34.7 %, 23rd
Drtg: 115.2, 23rd
Ortg: 111.3, 24th
Netrtg: -3.9, 23rd

Note: data collected at end of March 1, 2025 from basketball-reference

Team Trajectory:
Team age: 24.2, 1st youngest (per nbaage.com).
Prognosticator predictions: 20 wins
Current final prediction: 37 wins
2021-22: 27 (Start of Billups era)
2022-23: 33 (Lillard's last year)
2023-24: 21
2024-25 (predicted): 37

Discussion:
Blazers basically 23rd best team by stats, 21st by record. We lost a lot of games by large margins at the beginning of the season, skewing the data. So, we're actually much better than the 23rd best team. When a (predicted) 37 win team is the youngest in the league, great things are in their future.

Tankathon Draft Prognosis:

 

[wizenheimer]

Team Trajectory:
Team age: 24.2, 1st youngest (per nbaage.com).
Prognosticator predictions: 20 wins
Current final prediction: 37 wins

I'm not sure I understand "trajectory" in this case? Is there no other context for trajectory than average age of roster?

there is a difference between average age of roster, average age of rotation, average age of starters; I'd be interested in a comparison of all those average ages. . Portland's most common starting lineup has been Simons-Camara-Avdija-Grant-Ayton, and the average age of that lineup is 26.5. But replacing Grant with Sharpe drops the average to under 25

I suppose that link you provided goes a little deeper that just roster by averaging age vs minutes:



it's crazy how good OKC is considering their ages

 

[Wizard Mentor]

I'm not sure I understand "trajectory" in this case? Is there no other context for trajectory than average age of roster?

there is a difference between average age of roster, average age of rotation, average age of starters; I'd be interested in a comparison of all those average ages. . Portland's most common starting lineup has been Simons-Camara-Avdija-Grant-Ayton, and the average age of that lineup is 26.5. But replacing Grant with Sharpe drops the average to under 25

I suppose that link you provided goes a little deeper that just roster by averaging age vs minutes:

View attachment 71853

it's crazy how good OKC is considering their ages

added record history in that section

 

[wizenheimer]

added record history in that section

understood

I'm just pushing back, a bit, on the notion that Portland's youth translates to a great trajectory; yeah, it might providing there is some major development of some young players. But, according to winshares, the veteran foursome of Simons-Ayton-Grant-Timelord have combined for 8.4 of Portland's 27 wins. The average age in the NBA is 26. The average age of those 4 vets is 27.6. And having watched the games, I think 8.4 wins is probably lower than what they have provided. I think it's closer to 10-11 wins

in other words, it won't be just Portland's youth that could propel the Blazers to 37 wins. By contrast, OKC has a foursome of SGA-Williams-Wallace-Holmgren that have provided 25.2 wins and their average age is 23.7. Portland's 'young' foursome of Deni-Camara-Scoot-Sharpe has provided 10.6 wins with an average age of 23

OKC is probably an unfair gauge of the Blazers. Their talent is just much better across the board and fits much better as well. But if you look at that link you provided sorted by average-age/minutes -->wins, you get

OKC: 25 --> 49 wins (8 first round picks over next 5 years)
Memphis: 25 --> 38 wins (8 first round picks over next 6 years)
Houston: 25.1 --> 37 wins
Orlando: 25.2 --> 29 wins
Atlanta: 25.3 --> 27 wins
Portland: 24.4 --> 27 wins (6 first round picks over next 5 years)

Detroit: 25.9 --> 34 wins
Indiana: 26.2 --> 34 wins

Washington: 24.1 --> 11 (full blown tank all year and every year it seems)
Utah: 24.5 --> 15 (actively tanking all season) (11 first round picks over next 5 years)
San Antonio: 26.2 --> 25 (CP3 seriously skews average age; 6 first round picks over next 5 years)

I guess my point is if youth is a gauge of upward trajectory, several teams are passing or pacing Portland

just a funny note about Utah: they sat 4 starters against Portland and predictably lost. Three nights later they brought back 3 starters against Minny and won. Next game? All four starters sat...and they lost. Ainge knows the value of tanking; especially because if the Jazz pick isn't in the top-10 it goes to OKC