Well, obviously "Plan A" didn't work out. It would appear that plan's "B and C" -- Ariza and Artest, are also potentially down the drain. So what to do? Settle? or keep waiting for the right time to strike?
By settling, we'd be going after likely our 4th or 5th best option at SF... That list likely includes:
-Odom (PROs- closest to Hedo in skills, hurts LA, tough. CONs- restricted, attitude issues [2nd coming of Sheed?], old, LAKER, offer likely to be matched)
-Marvin Williams (PROs- young w/ plenty of potential still, consistently improving, good NW kid, Outlaw on offense, at least twice as good on D. CONs- restricted and likely to be matched, not a huge uprade currently, tweener)
-Marion (PROs- Experience. CONs- OLD, will likely want to be paid far more than he's worth.)
-Josh Smith(PROs- Defensive/Rebounding stud, young, passionate/ultra-competitive player. CONs- HUGE trade kicker [does that kicker add to our cap #?], would need to be traded for and won't come cheap, limited offensive game)
-Other less attractive players.
So the question then becomes, are any of these guys worth it? I'd argue only Williams and Smith would even be worth looking at, however their price would likely make both cost prohibitive.
So now we have to ask ourselves, do we blow our capspace on an aging FA point guard or a backup 4? I think that answer is a clear no.
So here we are, as I see it, looking straight down the barrel of standing pat into next season. While it could be argued that this, due to the rest of the title contenders getting better, ISN'T the way to go, I would argue that, strategically it's the best way to go, and here's why.
Yesterday Mike Barrett (I think it was MB... regardless, it was somebody on sportsradio) made a very good point about NEXT offseasons cap. The point was that, due to the economy turning at the end of the season, earnings and profits won't be down much, if any THIS season, but will DEFINITELY be impacted NEXT season. The point was that this offseasons cap # would be close to the same as lasts, but NEXT seasons would drop (making EVERY team's capspace smaller).
With the insanely good crop of free agents in next offseason, any team with ANY chance at being under the cap is going to do whatever they have to to get there at the next trade deadline. It certainly won't hurt our chances to have 9 MIL in capspace to go along w/ cheap young talent (2 of which are expiring deals) and 3 stashed euros to help a team w/ a salary dump. Moreover, there WILL be teams who, by the deadline, flat out KNOW they won't be able to resign their guy, and, in moving on, will want to clear salary and pick up young talent. I think we could also likely see a trade demand or two as well, which would put the given teams in the same position as the previous example. ALL of these scenarios play out perfectly for us standing pat into next season.
One final point to think about is that we might be able to pick up a middle range guy in next offseasons free agent class too. I don't think it's far fetched at all to think that a few of that HUGE list of talents will have to sign MLEs. There simply AREN'T enough max deals out there for all of them. We could definitely benefit from that glut of talent on the market.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, while I recognize that standing pat is risky and not aggressive, the worst thing that can happen by standing pat is that our youth continues to develop. Panicking could screw us. Don't forget what happened to the Bulls after they swung and missed at McGrady and Duncan... They gave Ron Mercer a max deal. Standing pat may be playing it safe, but it avoids ending up with another Ron Mercer at max money situation.
By settling, we'd be going after likely our 4th or 5th best option at SF... That list likely includes:
-Odom (PROs- closest to Hedo in skills, hurts LA, tough. CONs- restricted, attitude issues [2nd coming of Sheed?], old, LAKER, offer likely to be matched)
-Marvin Williams (PROs- young w/ plenty of potential still, consistently improving, good NW kid, Outlaw on offense, at least twice as good on D. CONs- restricted and likely to be matched, not a huge uprade currently, tweener)
-Marion (PROs- Experience. CONs- OLD, will likely want to be paid far more than he's worth.)
-Josh Smith(PROs- Defensive/Rebounding stud, young, passionate/ultra-competitive player. CONs- HUGE trade kicker [does that kicker add to our cap #?], would need to be traded for and won't come cheap, limited offensive game)
-Other less attractive players.
So the question then becomes, are any of these guys worth it? I'd argue only Williams and Smith would even be worth looking at, however their price would likely make both cost prohibitive.
So now we have to ask ourselves, do we blow our capspace on an aging FA point guard or a backup 4? I think that answer is a clear no.
So here we are, as I see it, looking straight down the barrel of standing pat into next season. While it could be argued that this, due to the rest of the title contenders getting better, ISN'T the way to go, I would argue that, strategically it's the best way to go, and here's why.
Yesterday Mike Barrett (I think it was MB... regardless, it was somebody on sportsradio) made a very good point about NEXT offseasons cap. The point was that, due to the economy turning at the end of the season, earnings and profits won't be down much, if any THIS season, but will DEFINITELY be impacted NEXT season. The point was that this offseasons cap # would be close to the same as lasts, but NEXT seasons would drop (making EVERY team's capspace smaller).
With the insanely good crop of free agents in next offseason, any team with ANY chance at being under the cap is going to do whatever they have to to get there at the next trade deadline. It certainly won't hurt our chances to have 9 MIL in capspace to go along w/ cheap young talent (2 of which are expiring deals) and 3 stashed euros to help a team w/ a salary dump. Moreover, there WILL be teams who, by the deadline, flat out KNOW they won't be able to resign their guy, and, in moving on, will want to clear salary and pick up young talent. I think we could also likely see a trade demand or two as well, which would put the given teams in the same position as the previous example. ALL of these scenarios play out perfectly for us standing pat into next season.
One final point to think about is that we might be able to pick up a middle range guy in next offseasons free agent class too. I don't think it's far fetched at all to think that a few of that HUGE list of talents will have to sign MLEs. There simply AREN'T enough max deals out there for all of them. We could definitely benefit from that glut of talent on the market.
MOST IMPORTANTLY, while I recognize that standing pat is risky and not aggressive, the worst thing that can happen by standing pat is that our youth continues to develop. Panicking could screw us. Don't forget what happened to the Bulls after they swung and missed at McGrady and Duncan... They gave Ron Mercer a max deal. Standing pat may be playing it safe, but it avoids ending up with another Ron Mercer at max money situation.
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