Stein: Stotts on board for one more year (at least)

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illmatic99

formerly yuyuza1
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From his newsletter thing. https://www.nytimes.com/newsletters/marc-stein


Q: Not a Blazers fan, but what do you think they should do next? — (Alex, Sacramento)

STEIN: I'm guessing you're asking about the roster, but first we have to deal with the status of the coach (Terry Stotts) and the general manager (Neil Olshey).

Throughout the Blazers' first-round sweep by New Orleans, there were rumblings around the league that Stotts' job was in jeopardy and that teams such as Orlando and Phoenix were ready to pounce if he indeed became available. But that talk has largely quieted since Portland's early exit.

The latest word in coaching circles is that the Blazers prefer to keep Stotts heading into the final year of his contract — as they should. (I would argue Stotts should be up for an extension, but perhaps that's a topic for a future Corner Three.)

There's a reason Stotts is wildly popular with actual Blazers fans beyond his whole "PhotoStotts" alter ego. It's largely because he's gotten the most out of pretty much every roster he's had there, particularly in the three seasons since LaMarcus Aldridge defected to San Antonio in free agency in the summer of 2015.

It's also well-known that both members of the Blazers' vaunted backcourt — Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum — are fans of the coach.

"He's done a terrific job with what he's been given," McCollum told local reporters the day after Portland's season ended.

In the wake of that humbling first-round exit, Olshey preached patience, announcing at a season wrapup news conference that he would advocate a "measured" approach to the Blazers' inability to cope with New Orleans after finishing third in a rugged Western Conference.
If it's up to him, Olshey said, Portland will "not overreact" to one bad series. (The Blazers have indeed lost 10 consecutive playoff games, but six of those losses were inflicted by Golden State.)

What remains to be seen is whether Olshey will be making those big calls, or if the Portland owner Paul Allen — now that Allen is no longer occupied by his Seattle Seahawks' business in the N.F.L. draft — will keep his lead basketball decision-maker in place amid considerable consternation in the Pacific Northwest about the Blazers' flawed construction.

I'm already on record, in the very first edition of this newsletter, as having predicted that 2018 would be the calendar year in which the Blazers decide that they have to break up the Lillard/McCollum partnership to try to overcome Portland's otherwise limited options to balance the rest of the roster. Olshey, for the record, has repeatedly made it clear that he has no interest in trading Lillard or McCollum.

The most pressing question, then, actually is: What does Allen want to do next?

And: Does Allen think Olshey deserves the chance to try to undo the damage done by the flurry of big contracts Portland handed out in the summer of 2016 (Evan Turner, Meyers Leonard and Moe Harkless) that have left the Blazers with scant flexibility to make changes?

Q: I recently read a Damian Lillard profile that said he was given more responsibility for setting up plays this year, which was notable because Terry Stotts is known as someone who likes to call plays from the sideline. Obviously, the N.B.A. is hugely different from college, where coaches basically run onto the floor to yell instructions. Which N.B.A. coaches are known for calling plays, and which coaches are more inclined to give their players more freedom? — Kshithij Shrinath (Washington, D.C.)

STEIN: Let's be clear about something — every N.B.A. coach calls at least some of the plays. That's especially true in crunch time, no matter how much freedom the point guard typically gets.

It's fair to say, though, that certain coaches (in addition to Stotts) are more known for calling plays out from the sideline than others. Those coaches include Utah's Quin Snyder, Dallas' Rick Carlisle, Detroit's Stan Van Gundy, Minnesota's Tom Thibodeau and San Antonio's Gregg Popovich.

There are a handful of coaches, on the flipside, more inclined to let players on the floor call the shots for long stretches in the game. Examples: Houston's Mike D'Antoni, New Orleans' Alvin Gentry, Golden State's Steve Kerr, Oklahoma City's Billy Donovan and Brooklyn's Kenny Atkinson.
 
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Could be wrong, but I thought Terry's contract expired in 2020
 
Unfortunate but entirely expected at this point. I miss the days when our front office wasn't averse to making changes.
 
Unfortunate but entirely expected at this point. I miss the days when our front office wasn't averse to making changes.

It seems like PA has gone from maybe too trigger happy in the post Jail Blazer days to too scared to make any changes now.
 
Many of us are on the fence about Stotts, given what he has to work with. I'm fine with that if it is true, but would really like to see Olshey gone then. Something has to change. The worst scenario in the world would be to repeat last season. Bringing in a new GM with a fresh vision and little attachments would go a long way.
 
I keep asking: if Stotts goes, who should replace him? We'd all love Brad Stevens or someone like that, but he ain't available.

Let's enumerate the SPECIFIC complaints about Stotts.

I'll start:too conservative a rotation. (Wins games in the regular season but leaves us thin and tired in the playoffs?)
But even that isn't really fair. He worked a 19-year-old rookie (who looked lost in Summer League) into the playoff rotation.
 
I keep asking: if Stotts goes, who should replace him? We'd all love Brad Stevens or someone like that, but he ain't available.

Let's enumerate the SPECIFIC complaints about Stotts.

I'll start:too conservative a rotation. (Wins games in the regular season but leaves us thin and tired in the playoffs?)
But even that isn't really fair. He worked a 19-year-old rookie (who looked lost in Summer League) into the playoff rotation.

If I were considering replacing him, I would first want to talk with him about what he would do differently next year. Then I would probably interview Vanterpool and Udoka, or see if I could lure some other big name away, but only if one of those had a plan that seemed to make sense given the team at hand.
 
Let's enumerate the SPECIFIC complaints about Stotts.

Play Style

  • Lack of ball movement - the ball is stuck in a small arc at the top of the 3-point line.
  • Lack of player movement - other than running a "wheel", there is very little player movement, despite distance traveled.
  • Lack of passing, period!
  • Slow player movement - players move at a half-jog pace throughout the offensive set.
  • Slow to initiate offense - the shot clock is generally down to 15-17 seconds by the time the ball is in position for its first pass (if there IS a pass).
  • Over-reliance on the jump shot and ISO.

Coaching Style
  • Lack of accountability - let's players do whatever they want.
  • Lack of adjustments - in-game, and multi-game adjustments are few and far between.
  • Poor grasp on when to call a time out - we aren't the Pops Spurs or the Phil Lakers where the players have earned the trust to fix mistakes on the fly (because we don't really have a plan that the players can get back to and execute).
  • Poor grasp on sticking with the "hot hand".
  • Inability or unwillingness to "work the refs" - as sad as it is, it's part of the game.
  • Reactive rather than proactive - prefers to attempt to "match" the opponent, rather than develop and impose a style of play that the opponent must deal with.

Past Mistakes
  • Thought he could use LA like Dirk - never seemed to realize the yawning talent gulf between the two players.
  • He ran an offense his defense was designed to give up - defensively the plan was to cede the mid-range jumper to opponents, but his offense was DESIGNED AROUND mid-range jumpers for LA. I still don't think he understands this, given the way his offense relies on Aminu/Turner to take long jumpers.

I'm sure there are a handful of other things I could add to this list, but these are the ones that immediately spring to mind.

Yes, the roster ALSO needs to be addressed. This isn't an either/or - it's a BOTH. But this roster is only 2 pieces away from being really good. And yes, a couple roster changes will make the team (and Terry) look much better than they currently do. But a couple roster changes won't change any of Terry's many short-comings. We'll make more 3-pointers if we replace Aminu/Turner. And that will mean their replacements will have to be guarded opening more space for Dame/CJ. But it's still a weak style of play (dribble penetration rather than pass penetration), there still won't be any accountability or adjustments, there still won't be an increase in pace, there still won't be a value change in what constitutes a "good shot".

Terry is a fine regular season coach. He'll never be a coach who will excel in the Playoffs. And I don't think he'll ever be a coach who makes the sum of the team greater than the individual players. Whether another coach can remains to be seen - but we owe it to the player and the fans to try to find something that works better. Terry's philosophy has been flawed from Day 1, and after 6 (7?) years it's long overdue to make a change.
 
"Actual blazers fans" - well there are some, Stein, that actually don't like him.
 
I find it really weird when players say, "he's done well with what he has been given". You realize you've been 1st round exits for a while sans a clipper team getting obliterated by injuries. Don't they have any pride whatsoever? He's basically saying well Stotts is good but us players aren't... CJ he was given you... You were on his roster. You're either saying you're not that good or your peers suck, which is like why would you say that...
Stotts is in my opinion a good coach, but I think a change in coaching could be good for the team.
Also Stein seems to be clueless (as usual) as to how "local" fans think. Not saying we have pitch forks out for Stotts but his finger is not even remotely close to the pulse of Blazer fans.
 
Play Style
  • Lack of ball movement - the ball is stuck in a small arc at the top of the 3-point line.
  • Lack of player movement - other than running a "wheel", there is very little player movement, despite distance traveled.
  • Lack of passing, period!
  • Slow player movement - players move at a half-jog pace throughout the offensive set.
  • Slow to initiate offense - the shot clock is generally down to 15-17 seconds by the time the ball is in position for its first pass (if there IS a pass).
  • Over-reliance on the jump shot and ISO.

Coaching Style
  • Lack of accountability - let's players do whatever they want.
  • Lack of adjustments - in-game, and multi-game adjustments are few and far between.
  • Poor grasp on when to call a time out - we aren't the Pops Spurs or the Phil Lakers where the players have earned the trust to fix mistakes on the fly (because we don't really have a plan that the players can get back to and execute).
  • Poor grasp on sticking with the "hot hand".
  • Inability or unwillingness to "work the refs" - as sad as it is, it's part of the game.
  • Reactive rather than proactive - prefers to attempt to "match" the opponent, rather than develop and impose a style of play that the opponent must deal with.

Past Mistakes
  • Thought he could use LA like Dirk - never seemed to realize the yawning talent gulf between the two players.
I would dispute some of these, and some of these are just contradictory (or redundant). You can't blame him for the offensive sets AT THE SAME TIME as saying "lets players do whatever they want".
And that think about "thought he could use LA like Dirk" - I'm'a call bullshit on that. Besides which - remember when we beat the Rockets on the road in the playoffs with LA scoring 40+ points? That seemed to work out OK.
 
I find it really weird when players say, "he's done well with what he has been given". You realize you've been 1st round exits for a while sans a clipper team getting obliterated by injuries.
Um - you realize that 14 teams DIDN'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, right? Including teams with players like Jokic, Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard and LONZO BALL!!!
 
If I were considering replacing him, I would first want to talk with him about what he would do differently next year. Then I would probably interview Vanterpool and Udoka, or see if I could lure some other big name away, but only if one of those had a plan that seemed to make sense given the team at hand.
I have a feeling that any assistant coach we've heard of is unlikely to be better than Stotts.
 
Um - you realize that 14 teams DIDN'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, right? Including teams with players like Jokic, Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard and LONZO BALL!!!

So what? That means other teams aren't playing to their potential or have bad coaches too? Well of course, but were talking about the Blazers. The Knicks may have made the playoffs if Porzingis stayed healthy I believe they were a couple games over .500 when he got hurt (I may be wrong, but they were in the play off hunt).
 
Um - you realize that 14 teams DIDN'T MAKE THE PLAYOFFS, right? Including teams with players like Jokic, Porzingis, Marc Gasol, Andre Drummond, Blake Griffin, Dwight Howard and LONZO BALL!!!

So we're barely better than half of the teams. and then get swept when we barely get a 3rd seed. lol.
 
So we're barely better than half of the teams. and then get swept when we barely get a 3rd seed. lol.
I think that's about right for our roster. I seriously did not expect us to make the playoffs.
 
I would dispute some of these, and some of these are just contradictory (or redundant). You can't blame him for the offensive sets AT THE SAME TIME as saying "lets players do whatever they want".
How can't you? He lets players do whatever they want.. they can isolate us out of a set even if their name is Al-Farouq Aminu... sometimes we don't even ru sets and it's ISO-ball... hit even the sets that he does run, I don't like, as there's little movement towards to rim. Teams can play up and we don't have any set that's designed to exploit that with basket cuts. The only one is Horns, but almost every team runs that set.
 
I have a feeling that any assistant coach we've heard of is unlikely to be better than Stotts.

Interesting theory. So Stotts will be here till he falls into his grave. Unless...

In the unlikely case that some assistant coach of the future is more perfect than the winged angel Stotts, Olshey will see his potential before the other 29 teams and snap him up.

So lazy thinkers have it made. Blazer fans will never need to call for anyone's replacement. What luck we all have, to have picked the perfect team.
 
I keep asking: if Stotts goes, who should replace him? We'd all love Brad Stevens or someone like that, but he ain't available.

Let's enumerate the SPECIFIC complaints about Stotts.

I'll start:too conservative a rotation. (Wins games in the regular season but leaves us thin and tired in the playoffs?)
But even that isn't really fair. He worked a 19-year-old rookie (who looked lost in Summer League) into the playoff rotation.
Exactly. Stotts gave everyone a shot- Napier, Biggie, Zach, even Jake Layman got start a game. I don't think he was conservative at all. Ultimately, he went with the best players for each matchup.
 

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