Stotts changing defense. Finally

[JDC]

I just don't agree with running a base scheme that protects our worst defenders, but doesn't maximize our best.

I'm totally with being more flexible in the regular season to better help get ready for the elite teams in the playoffs, but this team isn't good / constructed well enough to sacrifice regular season wins in the process. We need good seeding and injury luck (and another move imo) to have a chance to really contend.

Still hold out hope that we see more of an aggressive drop--Nurk up at the level of the screen in a backpedal--where we don't have to completely sell out to stop the pnr.

But if hard hedging really is what we are going with, get prepared to see more high percentage looks at the rim and a barrage of corner / assisted / open threes.

Cool with the amount of nail help we've been giving when we are in a drop btw. CJ or whoever is in that position just needs to do a better job of being their early so that can recover on the flight of pass with the outside hand out and active to disrupt the pass. Corner guy should also be up and stunting to the wing to make that decision a little tougher.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

I think eventually you're going to regret questioning Coach Stopps.

only when he makes notable changes that Stopps me from questioning him.

 

[BonesJones]

I just don't agree with running a base scheme that protects our worst defenders, but doesn't maximize or best.

I'm totally with being more flexible in the regular season to better help get ready for the elite teams in the playoffs, but this team isn't good / constructed well enough to sacrifice regular season wins in the process. We need good seeding and injury luck (and another move imo) to have a chance to really contend.

Still hold out hope that we see more of an aggressive drop--Nurk up at the level of the screen in a backpedal--where we don't have to completely sell out to stop the pnr.

But if hard hedging really is what we are going with, get prepared to see more high percentage looks at the rim and a barrage of corner / assisted / open threes.

Cool with with amount of nail help we've been giving when we are in a drop btw. CJ or whoever is in that position just needs to do a better job of being their early so that can recover on the flight of pass with the outside hand out and active to disrupt the pass. Corner guy should also be up and stunting to the wing to make that decision a little tougher.

They'll make up the couple of games they drop early with a couple of games they win late. And they have no chance at winning a championship only running one scheme. I'd rather be the 5 or 6 seed with a chance at beating the Lakers than the 3 seed without a chance at beating them.

You know hard hedge schemes, if ran correctly, don't automatically give up layups or open 3s.

Two things have been the issue:
1.) The big not hedging close enough (or hard enough) at times, allowing a passing window to the rolling big.
2.) Poor backside rotations (this would be a problem running any scheme).

I also don't see how a more aggressive base scheme fails to maximize our best defenders.

 

[JDC]

They'll make up the couple of games they drop early with a couple of games they win late. And they have no chance at winning a championship only running one scheme. I'd rather be the 5 or 6 seed with a chance at beating the Lakers than the 3 seed without a chance at beating them.

You know hard hedge schemes, if ran correctly, don't automatically give up layups or open 3s.

Two things have been the issue:
1.) The big not hedging close enough (or hard enough) at times, allowing a passing window to the rolling big.
2.) Poor backside rotations (this would be a problem running any scheme).

I also don't see how a more aggressive base scheme fails to maximize our best defenders.

Is just a matter of degree. I agree that we need to be more aggressive / flexible.

If it's hedging and recovering though as the base coverage, you're limiting the impact Nurk has around the rim. Also don't love Cov as a help and recover athlete over large spaces. He's a little creaky there. Much rather have him stunting / digging and recovering than pulling completely over to stop a roll then have to close to the wing.

We've also seen Dame and CJ matched up in the corner and having to be the one to make that last rotation with mixed results.

For as much the drop forced the two of them to work harder in the pnr, that work now has just shifted to off the ball, which I think is more damaging on the whole.

Way too early for all this though, I understand. We'll see when the real games start.

 

[BonesJones]

Is just a matter of degree. I agree that we need to be more aggressive / flexible.

If it's hedging and recovering though as the base coverage, you're limiting the impact Nurk has around the rim. Also don't love Cov as a help and recover athlete over large spaces. He's a little creaky there. Much rather have him stunting / digging and recovering than pulling completely over to stop a roll then have to close to the wing.

We've also seen Dame and CJ matched up in the corner and having to be the one to make that last rotation with mixed results.

For as much the drop forced the two of them to work harder in the pnr, that work now has just shifted to off the ball, which I think is more damaging on the whole.

Way too early for all this though, I understand. We'll see when the real games start.

I'd rather play Nurkic more minutes by reducing his fouls, which dropping the big exacerbates for him, IMO.

Nurkic looks great at hedging too, IMO. And as far as rotations go, I'm hopeful they'll improve this year, if they're truly dedicated to improving defensively.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

At least the old defense didn't concede 80 points in a half

 

[Chris Craig]

At least the old defense didn't concede 80 points in a half

Yeah, trying to get this team to play a new defensive scheme has destroyed it

 

[oldfisherman]

Ok. Think I figured out the changes Stotts made to the defense.

Stotts is thinking out of the box. He has borrowed game plans from another sport. His changes even have a secret new name.

The dodgeball defense and rebounding scheme.

The plan is:
When the opposing player is getting ready to throw the ball, the Blazer players need to get as far away from him as possible. Hiding behind your own player is allowed.

If the thrown ball does not go into the basket. The Blazer players are not allowed to touch the ball until it hits the floor.

However, the dodgeball scheme does not apply when the Blazers have the ball. The 10 second stalling rule does not apply. The Blazer player with the ball can hold on to it as long as he wants, put must throw the ball towards the basket before the clock runs out.

Dodgeball basketball

 

[3putt]

Ok. Think I figured out the changes Stotts made to the defense.

Stotts is thinking out of the box. He has borrowed game plans from another sport. His changes even have a secret new name.

The dodgeball defense and rebounding scheme.
I
The plan is:
When the opposing player is getting ready to throw the ball, the Blazer players need to get as far away from him as possible. Hiding behind your own player is allowed.

If the thrown ball does not go into the basket. The Blazer players are not allowed to touch the ball until it hits the floor.

However, the dodgeball scheme does not apply when the Blazers have the ball. The 10 second stalling rule does not apply. The Blazer player with the ball can hold on to it as long as he wants, put must throw the ball towards the basket before the clock runs out.

Dodgeball basketball

 

[3putt]

Pretty funny. The idea about defenders hiding behind each other made me laugh after watching tonight’s game. Looks like a team meeting in the paint while Nuggets were getting warm up looks on the three point line? Yeah I’ll give ya the rotation was out of sync with players out but if I would add anything to the rest of the observations is POSITIONING. I wish they would play their position on defense and stop trying to over-help out a teammate. All it does is leave your matchup wide open. Is there a stat for who allows the most uncontested three pointers??

 

[wizenheimer]

the Stotts defense:

everybody else's defense:

 

[B-Roy]

My biggest concern going into the season was CJ, Melo and Stotts. All three are making me pull my hair out.

 

[blazerkor]

My biggest concern going into the season was CJ, Melo and Stotts. All three are making me pull my hair out.

Until Stotts and Dame put an end to it, those two are going to follow their instincts and unfortunately their instincts are to ball hog constantly.

 

[Natebishop3]

My biggest concern going into the season was CJ, Melo and Stotts. All three are making me pull my hair out.

Anyone think Stotts survives the full season?

 

[Tince]

Anyone think Stotts survives the full season?

Every year I'm happy to bet money he does, but nobody will take me up on the offer.

Please tell me you'll be the first.

 

[bobf]

Ok. Think I figured out the changes Stotts made to the defense.

Stotts is thinking out of the box. He has borrowed game plans from another sport. His changes even have a secret new name.

The dodgeball defense and rebounding scheme.

The plan is:
When the opposing player is getting ready to throw the ball, the Blazer players need to get as far away from him as possible. Hiding behind your own player is allowed.

If the thrown ball does not go into the basket. The Blazer players are not allowed to touch the ball until it hits the floor.

However, the dodgeball scheme does not apply when the Blazers have the ball. The 10 second stalling rule does not apply. The Blazer player with the ball can hold on to it as long as he wants, put must throw the ball towards the basket before the clock runs out.

Dodgeball basketball

Dame gonna get a ring after all.

 

[bobf]

Can we do what the Celtics do? I watched all the Celtics playoff games. Their defense is a thing of beauty. Don’t know the X’a and O’s to know what they do but I know what their basic philosophy is in simplest terms.

KEEP UR DAMN GUY IN FRONT OF YOU

KUDGIFOY

If that means you give up a three then that’s what it means.

What’s the point of pretending to take away the three of all they do is break you down and dunk the ball (yay we took away the three) or they kick it out and there, you gave up the three anyway, plus two more threes cuz you can’t board after ur D is in shambles. Better to give up a three with ur D still in cohesive formation. You’ll get the board.

So can we just copy the Celtics? I know they have better defenders but c’mon man, their PG is tiny, it’s mostly their style.

Or can we just make a swap straight up for Ainge and Buttigieg or whatever his name is?

 

[TBpup]

Can we do what the Celtics do? I watched all the Celtics playoff games. Their defense is a thing of beauty. Don’t know the X’a and O’s to know what they do but I know what their basic philosophy is in simplest terms.

KEEP UR DAMN GUY IN FRONT OF YOU

KUDGIFOY

If that means you give up a three then that’s what it means.

What’s the point of pretending to take away the three of all they do is break you down and dunk the ball (yay we took away the three) or they kick it out and there, you gave up the three anyway, plus two more threes cuz you can’t board after ur D is in shambles. Better to give up a three with ur D still in cohesive formation. You’ll get the board.

So can we just copy the Celtics? I know they have better defenders but c’mon man, their PG is tiny, it’s mostly their style.

Or can we just make a swap straight up for Ainge and Buttigieg or whatever his name is?

The even bigger problem is, the Blazers are currently giving up BOTH open '3's and open looks at the rim. Yes, there is a period of adjustment, but this is pathetic. And when a player like Butler, AD, Rodman, Camby, Buck Williams, changes teams, the result was almost instantaniously noticebly better. This looks like it is getting worse.

 

[julius]

changing the defense, but for the better? So far, I'd say no.

 

[bobf]

The even bigger problem is, the Blazers are currently giving up BOTH open '3's and open looks at the rim. Yes, there is a period of adjustment, but this is pathetic. And when a player like Butler, AD, Rodman, Camby, Buck Williams, changes teams, the result was almost instantaniously noticebly better. This looks like it is getting worse.

Yeah I don’t get it.

I just looked up some stats. Boston gave up the lowest 3 point fg% last year. But if you watch them it’s not IMO because they are all way out on the 3 point shooters taking away the 3. I believe it’s because they refuse to get broken down with penetration which leads to even higher % kick out three point shots (and layups).

In fact here’s a list of teams in order of most three point shots allowed per game:
1. Milwaukee
2. Toronto
3. Miami
4. LA Clippers
7. Boston

That’s five top-level defenses giving up the most threes per game. So good D is not about stopping teams from shooting threes.

Portland is right in there too at #6 but my thought is we give them up in a different way, after getting broken down.

 

[bobf]

The even bigger problem is, the Blazers are currently giving up BOTH open '3's and open looks at the rim. Yes, there is a period of adjustment, but this is pathetic. And when a player like Butler, AD, Rodman, Camby, Buck Williams, changes teams, the result was almost instantaniously noticebly better. This looks like it is getting worse.

We SHOULD in theory have better D than two years ago. RoCo and DJJ in place of Aminu and Hark. Our second unit two years ago didn’t have anyone special on D. We have GT as a reasonably good defender now. Why do we suck so bad defensively? Hopefully just a matter of time, but like you said it shouldn’t be..

 

[tester551]

Yeah I don’t get it.

I just looked up some stats. Boston gave up the lowest 3 point fg% last year. But if you watch them it’s not IMO because they are all way out on the 3 point shooters taking away the 3. I believe it’s because they refuse to get broken down with penetration which leads to even higher % kick out three point shots (and layups).

In fact here’s a list of teams in order of most three point shots allowed per game:
1. Milwaukee
2. Toronto
3. Miami
4. LA Clippers
7. Boston

That’s five top-level defenses giving up the most threes per game. So good D is not about stopping teams from shooting threes.

Portland is right in there too at #6 but my thought is we give them up in a different way, after getting broken down.

I'd like to see this broken down into two groups.... contested 3s vs open 3s

 

[tester551]

We SHOULD in theory have better D than two years ago. RoCo and DJJ in place of Aminu and Hark. Our second unit two years ago didn’t have anyone special on D. We have GT as a reasonably good defender now. Why do we suck so bad defensively? Hopefully just a matter of time, but like you said it shouldn’t be..

The missing ingredient in this analysis is rebounding.

Aminu has a D Rbdrtg of 21-23%
RoCo is at ~15%

 

[bobf]

The missing ingredient in this analysis is rebounding.

Aminu has a D Rbdrtg of 21-23%
RoCo is at ~15%

Defense is hard to measure but for what it’s worth RoCo has a career DBPM of +1.1 while Aminu’s is +0.6. That stat takes into account rebounding.

 

[wizenheimer]

We SHOULD in theory have better D than two years ago. RoCo and DJJ in place of Aminu and Hark. Our second unit two years ago didn’t have anyone special on D. We have GT as a reasonably good defender now. Why do we suck so bad defensively? Hopefully just a matter of time, but like you said it shouldn’t be..

to start with, I'm not sure RoCo and Jones are a better pair of defenders than Aminu and Harkless; not yet at least. RoCo probably operates better defensively than Aminu on the perimeter, but Aminu is bigger and better equipped to operate in the paint while being a much better defensive rebounder. And I'm not sure there is any real evidence that Jones is a better defender than Harkless either. The Aminu/Harkless pairing was actually quite good defensively their last couple of seasons in Portland. Pretty likely the RoCo/Jones pairing is not going to match, if they can, until they have 30 or 40 games under their belt.

this year's team does have Trent off the bench. But the rest of the primary rotation off the bench, Melo, Hood, & Kanter, are bad defenders. Meanwhile, that past Blazer team did have Turner and Curry (both decent defenders situationally) as well at the big body of Meyers in the paint (Layman was probably a better defender than either Melo or Hood). And of course, Zach was coming off the bench too. Nurkic-Zach-Aminu-Harkless-Turner-Curry. That's 6 rotation guys average or better in defense. Won't have that many this season

I think it was a way premature assumption so many made to think this year's team was immediately going to be good defensively. It's going to take time and with no training camp, most of the season may be gone before the defense gels, if it does. And, there's still that issue that the two guys who will get most of the minutes on the team are small guards bad at defense. That Blazer team we're talking about finished 16th in defensive rating. Bottom half of the league. This year's team might beat that, but a top-10 defense may be a bridge too far

 

[Orion Bailey]

@illmatic99 you should request a thread title change to:

stott’s changing up the defense by tossing it out the window....


My prediction.
If we are injury free and not in the top four in the west at all star beak, either stotts is replaced or management forces him to become head coach offensive coordinator and hand over 100% of the D to a defensive guru, whoever that may be.

we have length and speed now. There is no way we should be able to instill some sort of defensive stretch like the pistons had with the wallaces, etc.

Im no xo guy, but i havent seen much zone. much more like scrambling to keep up with man to man coverage.
What happened to handstretch zone philosophy?

 

[RoseCityRebel]

At some point it’s worth pointing out the GTJ is not some sort of special defender and is below average at present with room to improve, but his excellent sometimes shooting offsets his sloppy defense.

 

[tester551]

At some point it’s worth pointing out the GTJ is not some sort of special defender and is below average at present with room to improve, but his excellent sometimes shooting offsets his sloppy defense.

I agree. He does have a lot of room to improve. However GTJ's defense is special when we compare it to the product we've watched the last 6-7 years.

 

[Orion Bailey]

At some point it’s worth pointing out the GTJ is not some sort of special defender and is below average at present with room to improve, but his excellent sometimes shooting offsets his sloppy defense.

I agree. He does have a lot of room to improve. However GTJ's defense is special when we compare it to the product we've watched the last 6-7 years.

what ive seen is he is really good at on ball defense. To me it seems to look like he is getting lost on help and transition defense but i think that might be due to other teammates poor floor spacing and that he is a biproduct of poor team defense.
i think if/when the defense gels, he will not be trying to cover so often and thus, look much better overall on rotation, help and transition D.

Im not sure he is going to look good on d if he isnt on ball, until the defense as a whole figures it out.

 

[blazerkor]

to start with, I'm not sure RoCo and Jones are a better pair of defenders than Aminu and Harkless; not yet at least. RoCo probably operates better defensively than Aminu on the perimeter, but Aminu is bigger and better equipped to operate in the paint while being a much better defensive rebounder. And I'm not sure there is any real evidence that Jones is a better defender than Harkless either. The Aminu/Harkless pairing was actually quite good defensively their last couple of seasons in Portland. Pretty likely the RoCo/Jones pairing is not going to match, if they can, until they have 30 or 40 games under their belt.

this year's team does have Trent off the bench. But the rest of the primary rotation off the bench, Melo, Hood, & Kanter, are bad defenders. Meanwhile, that past Blazer team did have Turner and Curry (both decent defenders situationally) as well at the big body of Meyers in the paint (Layman was probably a better defender than either Melo or Hood). And of course, Zach was coming off the bench too. Nurkic-Zach-Aminu-Harkless-Turner-Curry. That's 6 rotation guys average or better in defense. Won't have that many this season

I think it was a way premature assumption so many made to think this year's team was immediately going to be good defensively. It's going to take time and with no training camp, most of the season may be gone before the defense gels, if it does. And, there's still that issue that the two guys who will get most of the minutes on the team are small guards bad at defense. That Blazer team we're talking about finished 16th in defensive rating. Bottom half of the league. This year's team might beat that, but a top-10 defense may be a bridge too far

You and I just differ on our valuations of these players' defense. I think RoCo and Jones are much better than Chief and Moe but that's just my opinion. I think Gary is a much better defender than Seth. I'm guessing that you are assuming Hoodie is going to be a much worse defender than he was before the injury because before the injury he was a much better defender than Turner, Layman or Curry. I can't disagree with you if you think Hoodie will be a worse defender because I haven't seen enough of him post injury to make that call.

Where we agree is that it's impossible to have an elite defense when the two guys getting the most minutes are Dame and CJ. I just think our defense can be far better than last season and even better than our WCF team was. Our offense shouldn't be any less potent than that WCF team's, in fact it should be better as well. So I still think the prospects for this season are pretty good and will be disappointed with a finish outside of HCA.