Synergy Stats on the Blazers

[Boise Blazer]

http://www.blazersedge.com/2009/12/4/1182582/synergy-sports-the-blazers

Its a long read but very interesting and somewhat surprising.

Highlights:

According to Synergy, Oden ranks in the 83rd percentile in overall offensive effectiveness, earning a ranking of "Excellent." By comparison, Roy is currently in the 61st percentile for a rating of "Good." Aldridge? He falls in the 79th percentile for a rating of "Very Good."

Aldridge rates overall as a "Very Good" defender. Amazingly, players shoot just 35.9% against him overall. We might attribute that to his length (ability to contest shots) and athleticism (you rarely see him burned off the dribble by a post man for an easy bucket). Aldridge rates "Excellent" in defending spot-up shooters, rates "Very Good" defending players in isolation face-ups and surprisingly (to me) rates "Excellent" defending pick and rolls. His man has shot just 22.5% when receiving the pass on a pick and roll. That puts him in the 94th percentile league-wide.

Perhaps most startling, though, is Roy's unbelievable accuracy when he takes shots coming off of screens. As mentioned above, his overall shooting percentage this season is down four points from last year, currently resting at 44%. Yet when Roy catches and shoots off of a pick, regardless of distance, he is connected at an astonishing 60.6% clip. This ranks him "Excellent" and in the 93rd percentile league-wide. What's more, when Roy comes off a pick in his preferred direction (left), those numbers jump up to 68.8% from the field, or the 97th percentile league-wide. Coming off a pick to the right, he still shoots above 50% and rates in the 85th percentile league-wide. How good is Roy in this specific situation? By comparison, when he is passed the ball and shoots a simple no-dribble jumper (his feet are set, he's not on the move, he goes straight up) he has shot just 34%

When Oden is isolated on his man away from the block, his defense dips sharply to a "Poor" rating and opponents shoot nearly 53% from the field against him. In practice, this includes jumpers, pull-up jumpers and other shots over the top that Oden might hesitate to contest for fear of fouling. When more agile bigs drift even further out -- up to 17 feet -- their field goal percentage still remains above 47%, rating Oden "Below Average" in defending these shots. Even when he defends players in face-the-basket situations in the key and at close range, his opponents shoot nearly 60% from the field and his rating is "Poor." Again, this likely can be attributed, in part, to an unwillingness to commit fouls by fully contesting shots.

Look at some of these numbers. Spot up shooters hit just 30.3% overall off of passes from Aldridge when the defense commits a second man to guarding him in the post. It doesn't really matter where he passes from: when he's on the left block they shoot 29.2%, the right block 33.3%. When teams hard double Aldridge -- that is, send a second defender to really harass him with the ball, forcing a pass -- he's even worse. The extra attention doesn't lead to more turnovers but it does lead to even worse shooting once Aldridge decides to pass. Overall, spot-up shooters hit less than 17% of their shots after Aldridge has been hard doubled. Again, it doesn't much matter which block Aldridge is passing from.

 

[Nikolokolus]

That is interesting stuff. The bit about Oden confirms what I've seen; he's not especially effective yet covering 4 and 5 who like to shoot face up jump shots or who like to play on the perimeter and I've always been a little leery of the way Aldridge handles double teams -- he never looks like he's reading the double all that effectively and usually passes to somebody as more of means of avoiding a block or a steal than to actually set somebody up.

 

[hasoos]

I think part of that has to be that Oden has backed off those outside guys in order to not pick up stupid fouls. Let them take their jumper. We can live with that.

 

[BBert]

Perhaps most startling, though, is Roy's unbelievable accuracy when he takes shots coming off of screens....

Isn't that what a lot of fans have been saying Roy should be doing? Move without the ball, run off screens -- kind of like a 'shooting guard' -- and have MILLER, Aldridge and Oden pass him the ball? Why is it again Roy 'cannot' play with Miller?

 

[Boise Blazer]

Isn't that what a lot of fans have been saying Roy should be doing? Move without the ball, run off screens -- kind of like a 'shooting guard' -- and have MILLER, Aldridge and Oden pass him the ball? Why is it again Roy 'cannot' play with Miller?

Yeah, Im trying my hardest to support Roy through this mess but when you see stats like that and Oden's offensive effeciency numbers it makes no sense why we cant run the offense to both players strengths.

 

[RR7]

I think those stats were from Roy dribbling off a screen, not catching off the screen.

 

[Nikolokolus]

I think those stats were from Roy dribbling off a screen, not catching off the screen.

Nope. Catching and shooting off of a screen. The only thing I wonder about is sample size. Has Brandon really done that enough to make it statistically significant? I can barely recall him using a screen to catch and shoot.

 

[Boise Blazer]

Nope. Catching and shooting off of a screen. The only thing I wonder about is sample size. Has Brandon really done that enough to make it statistically significant? I can barely recall him using a screen to catch and shoot.

Sample size is important for sure but if something is working very well even in small amounts it seems logical that you would do more if it to see if it is just a sample size issue. Thats my beef. We get so predictable and set in our ways that we are afraid to even do things that are already working.

 

[RR7]

Nope. Catching and shooting off of a screen. The only thing I wonder about is sample size. Has Brandon really done that enough to make it statistically significant? I can barely recall him using a screen to catch and shoot.

Whoops, says so right there, and I missed it, and then when reading the longer article, saw them mention his going to his left, and just made the assumption. My bad.

 

[Nikolokolus]

Sample size is important for sure but if something is working very well even in small amounts it seems logical that you would do more if it to see if it is just a sample size issue. Thats my beef. We get so predictable and set in our ways that we are afraid to even do things that are already working.

No argument from me there.

 

[LittleAlex]

Isn't that what a lot of fans have been saying Roy should be doing? Move without the ball, run off screens -- kind of like a 'shooting guard' -- and have MILLER, Aldridge and Oden pass him the ball? Why is it again Roy 'cannot' play with Miller?

The answers to the above questions are:
Yes.

Yes please.

Nate.