Tank 2022

[wizenheimer]

The bottom 4 in the lottery appear to be locks. The next 3 teams are the focus (remote chance the Spurs tank enough). Blazers are 1 win behind the Kings and 2 wins behind the Pacers. Here are the remaining schedules:

Portland:



Sacramento:



Indiana:



now, as far as tie-breakers, IIRC, season series doesn't matter. If teams end up tied the tie-breaker is a coin flip

I'd like to think the Blazers can lose their last 9 games. But I've seen enough NBA over the decades that I'm expecting the Blazers to grab 1 win somewhere. It may be that Dallas and Utah will be resting everybody in the rotations by the end of the season

the Kings have won 4 of their last 16 games so they are capable of wining a game or two. But looking at their schedule, I can only really see 1 win. I think the same is true for Indiana

so I'd say the Blazers might just remain at 7 but could move up to 6. I can't see them catching Indiana. Playing Hart against Washington and Winslow against Detroit may haunt the Blazer tank

lottery odds:



Blazers would have a 31.9% chance at top-4 at #7. A 37.2% chance at #6. And a 42% chance at #5

 

[wizenheimer]

I still think we end up getting under the Kings in the standings. I think with their schedule it's going to take getting really lucky to get under the Pacers but obviously by the time we did commit to the tank our goal was just to put ourselves in position to get the highest pick possible and probably wasn't realistically getting down to the bottom three records. So the sixth slot in the lotto isn't a bad result.

maybe

at the same time there isn't really a huge difference in odds between 7th (32%) and 5th (42%)

 

[blazerkor]

maybe

at the same time there isn't really a huge difference in odds between 7th (32%) and 5th (42%)

I'd take that extra 10% and I'd also take the 2 fewer spots we could be pushed back by other lucky teams if we don't get lucky. Even the one spot up and extra 5% lotto odds bump is appealing to me when moving from seven to six.

 

[wizenheimer]

I'd take that extra 10% and I'd also take the 2 fewer spots we could be pushed back by other lucky teams if we don't get lucky. Even the one spot up and extra 5% lotto odds bump is appealing to me when moving from seven to six.

for sure...I'm just saying there isn't a big difference in odds, either way. I mean, Portland has a 31.9% chance at 7; the Spurs have a 26.2% chance at 8.

the big drop-off in odds occurs between 8 & 9

 

[illmatic99]

KINGS!

up 4 in OT.

5 seconds left. Magic ball.

would be tied in the wins column if they hold on.

 

[Tince]

The Kings win... the KINNNNNNNGGGGGS win!

 

[THE HCP]

HARRISON FUCKING BARNES!!!!

 

[Tince]

HARRISON FUCKING BARNES!!!!

No longer a Blazer killer!

 

[KSF-ERIC]

Kings were down 7 with about a minute left. Mitchell had a clutch steal and score to tie the game. He’s good.

 

[Tince]

Kings were down 7 with about a minute left. Mitchell had a clutch steal and score to tie the game. He’s good.

Are we still going to make the playoffs?

 

[Predator]

PAOLO

 

[blazerkor]

Regardless of how well he plays the game he plays, I'm still a Jabari guy. Paolo is the only other player I would draft but if we get the top pick or if we get the second and Chet is taken first, I'm rolling with Jabari. I hope we get to make the choice because otherwise I want to trade the pick and other assets for an established star in the league.

 

[blazerfan11]

The Blazers still have a shot at the 5th worst record. If the Pacers can win 2 more games and the Blazers lose the rest of theirs it would happen.

 

[damianlillard]

Regardless of how well he plays the game he plays, I'm still a Jabari guy. Paolo is the only other player I would draft but if we get the top pick or if we get the second and Chet is taken first, I'm rolling with Jabari. I hope we get to make the choice because otherwise I want to trade the pick and other assets for an established star in the league.

Yeah I feel the same. I think Paolo got the edge over jabari simply because he can score from all 3 level in variety of ways. Smith and even Chet has to be set up for them to shoot. Smith got a lot to work on in term of handling the ball and attacking the rim. That being said he still got a high potential, I see him being a perennial all star. Banchero will just be a little bit better.

 

[Pinwheel1]

Regardless of how well he plays the game he plays, I'm still a Jabari guy. Paolo is the only other player I would draft but if we get the top pick or if we get the second and Chet is taken first, I'm rolling with Jabari. I hope we get to make the choice because otherwise I want to trade the pick and other assets for an established star in the league.

What established star is available for draft picks that we don't consider worth keeping? Now I know you also said "other assets" so that could increase our options, but are there many start players out there that teams want to move? I don't disagree with your theory I am wondering if there really are options.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Yeah I feel the same. I think Paolo got the edge over jabari simply because he can score from all 3 level in variety of ways. Smith and even Chet has to be set up for them to shoot. Smith got a lot to work on in term of handling the ball and attacking the rim. That being said he still got a high potential, I see him being a perennial all star. Banchero will just be a little bit better.

All the draft evaluators I've read say that, of all the players who have a shot to be taken top 3, Banchero is by far the worst defensively. In today's NBA you can get by with your star guard being indifferent defensively, but other than maybe Jokic, whose advance stats are all-world (and even then, the Nuggets are underperforming), name me a great frontcourt player who sucks on D and whose team is winning. Your best case is perhaps KAT, but how long have the Timberwolves sucked ass? And nobody is saying Banchero is remotely as good as KAT.

 

[blazerkor]

What established star is available for draft picks that we don't consider worth keeping? Now I know you also said "other assets" so that could increase our options, but are there many start players out there that teams want to move? I don't disagree with your theory I am wondering if there really are options.

I really don't know the answer to that but it seems there are always teams willing to move star players for the right price. I have no clue how each GM is grading out these prospects. I think the overall consensus seems to be that this is a deep draft through the lottery picks but different talent evaluators have these players' value set very differently. So I do think there are probably teams out there that will approach us with a star player for the right package of draft picks and players or maybe this is the rare draft where everyone is saying there's a ton of talent but no one wants anything to do with it.

 

[blazerkor]

All the draft evaluators I've read say that, of all the players who have a shot to be taken top 3, Banchero is by far the worst defensively. In today's NBA you can get by with your star guard being indifferent defensively, but other than maybe Jokic, whose advance stats are all-world (and even then, the Nuggets are underperforming), name me a great frontcourt player who sucks on D and whose team is winning. Your best case is perhaps KAT, but how long have the Timberwolves sucked ass? And nobody is saying Banchero is remotely as good as KAT.

The only thing that I've read that's negative about Paolo on D is that he loses concentration too often and lacks discipline but that he has all of the tools to be a great defender and has shown flashes of being a great defender both one on one but particularly in team defense situations. That's also how it's looked in the games that I've seen. Yeah, he does let up too often and yeah he does seem lost out there from time to time but he makes some great plays and locks guys up a lot. So I don't know who all the draft evaluators you've read are but that doesn't jibe with most of what I've read, watched and heard from different scouting sites and analysts but some have really harped on the consistency of his effort and lapses in concentration. The guy can move really well, the guy is really strong, he gets his hands on the ball well, he is not a big time shot blocker right now but he's just finished his freshman year of college ball so he has a lot to learn.

When looking at the other guys, yeah I think that Jabari grades out as a much better defender than Paolo. Ivey is obviously an outstanding defender. Chet has really slow feet and I think and have seen that others do as well, that he will have a really hard time staying with fours at the NBA level and Chet is also extremely weak, so he's going to have a hard time banging with most post players at the NBA level. Yeah, Chet is an elite shot blocker but at the same time he projects to be a huge defensive liability in a lot of ways and unlike Paolo there doesn't seem to be anything that you can do with Chet to change his liabilities. His frame doesn't look like one that's going to allow him to put on a lot of strength and his feet aren't getting any faster. Who knows though, he does have a really good feel/mind for the game on both ends and that can make up for some shortcomings but the NBA game is so fast and Chet just isn't physically that.

 

[damianlillard]

All the draft evaluators I've read say that, of all the players who have a shot to be taken top 3, Banchero is by far the worst defensively. In today's NBA you can get by with your star guard being indifferent defensively, but other than maybe Jokic, whose advance stats are all-world (and even then, the Nuggets are underperforming), name me a great frontcourt player who sucks on D and whose team is winning. Your best case is perhaps KAT, but how long have the Timberwolves sucked ass? And nobody is saying Banchero is remotely as good as KAT.

Paolo might be the worst defensively out of the 3, but that does not mean he sucks on defense. He’s a solid defender. Jabari is great, Chet is an amazing shot blocker. Paolo is solid but he does have the tool to be even better.

 

[Hoopguru]

What established star is available for draft picks that we don't consider worth keeping? Now I know you also said "other assets" so that could increase our options, but are there many start players out there that teams want to move? I don't disagree with your theory I am wondering if there really are options.

I'm thinking/guessing these guys could be available:
J Brown
Butler
Lavine is an UFA
Middleton
Green
Randall

 

[PCmor7]

The thing about Paolo being "by far the worst defensively" of guys in the discussion for being drafted in the top 3 is a bit deceiving. Pretty much all those other guys are considered well above average defensive prospects, even if they aren't perfect.

Paolo would only be adequate, but, with his scoring tools, that and maybe a little bit of improvement still projects as a borderline all-star somewhere down the road. There isn't a lot to project there, either; you really kind of know what you're getting with him and it's pretty good. It's Jabari Parker pre-injury.

However, he's a guy that'll get exploited in switches on the other end of the floor and his 3-point shot is suspect. That's what holds him back.

 

[Hoopguru]

The thing about Paolo being "by far the worst defensively" of guys in the discussion for being drafted in the top 3 is a bit deceiving. Pretty much all those other guys are considered well above average defensive prospects, even if they aren't perfect.

Paolo would only be adequate, but, with his scoring tools, that and maybe a little bit of improvement still projects as a borderline all-star somewhere down the road. There isn't a lot to project there, either; you really kind of know what you're getting with him and it's pretty good. It's Jabari Parker pre-injury.

However, he's a guy that'll get exploited in switches on the other end of the floor and his 3-point shot is suspect. That's what holds him back.

They say Murray could be one of the better two way players in the draft. Seems to have an all around game, but like everyone has area's that need improvement.
If he's there 6-9 he's be tempting.

 

[PCmor7]

They say Murray could be one of the better two way players in the draft. Seems to have an all around game, but like everyone has area's that need improvement.
If he's there 6-9 he's be tempting.

Good all-around game, probably comes in and is a rotation player as quick as anyone but probably never is a star. Maybe like a poor man's Tobias Harris but a little better on the defensive end. Good complementary offensive threat and make-them-pay shooter from 3 -- like a Morris twin-level contributor I think as a realist peak.

If Eason had a consistent shot, he'd be Murray.

 

[blazerfan11]

Whomever we choose, it better not be based on the NCAA tournament. It better be based on the body of work of that player going as far back as possible.
When Bam Adabayo asked some GMs why he wasn't picked higher, he was told they didn't think he had all the skills he showed when he got to the NBA. Bam said that a lot of his skills were lost in the college system.
Jalen Duren might have better skills than he's able to show in the style of ball that his team plays and that lack of quality guards that he plays with. (Just an example, I'm not suggesting we pick him.)
The other thing is choosing "best player available." What if you choose a player who can't get any playing time because of his position, and the team is in "win now" mode?

 

[PCmor7]

Whomever we choose, it better not be based on the NCAA tournament. It better be based on the body of work of that player going as far back as possible.
When Bam Adabayo asked some GMs why he wasn't picked higher, he was told they didn't think he had all the skills he showed when he got to the NBA. Bam said that a lot of his skills were lost in the college system.
Jalen Duren might have better skills than he's able to show in the style of ball that his team plays and that lack of quality guards that he plays with. (Just an example, I'm not suggesting we pick him.)
The other thing is choosing "best player available." What if you choose a player who can't get any playing time because of his position, and the team is in "win now" mode?

Duren's footwork is a joke from what I've seen. His fundamentals are rudimentary. He's being coached by a former NBA great and one of the greatest coaches of all time ... I don't what's the problem but every time I watch Memphis it looks like an AAU team.

I'll take Bam at his word, but I think the biggest thing that was holding him back wasn't Calipari's system. It was that he was a tweener and the jury was still out on whether or not a guy his size could be a starting 5 on top team. Now the style of game has evolved into his skillset.

You're right, though, at least the NCAA tournament can't be the only thing to judge a pick on.

 

[illmatic99]

Bam showed a lot more skill at Kentucky than Duren has. I got Dale Davis vibes from Duren.

 

[Rastapopoulos]

Paolo would only be adequate, but, with his scoring tools, that and maybe a little bit of improvement still projects as a borderline all-star somewhere down the road. There isn't a lot to project there, either; you really kind of know what you're getting with him and it's pretty good. It's Jabari Parker pre-injury.

I don't know if you remember, but "Jabari Parker pre-injury" wasn't exactly great.

I love it when talent evaluators say "has the tools to be a good defender". Well, no shit. That makes the fact that he sucks, despite playing for Coach K, a huge red flag.

 

[PCmor7]

I don't know if you remember, but "Jabari Parker pre-injury" wasn't exactly great.

I love it when talent evaluators say "has the tools to be a good defender". Well, no shit. That makes the fact that he sucks, despite playing for Coach K, a huge red flag.

He was a good player. He was a very dangerous offensive player.

 

[Pinwheel1]

I'm thinking/guessing these guys could be available:
J Brown
Butler
Lavine is an UFA
Middleton
Green
Randall

Hoping is probably the more likely. At least for Brown, Butler, and Lavine.

 

[Hoopguru]

Hoping is probably the more likely. At least for Brown, Butler, and Lavine.

Lavine is an UFA so?