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GrandpaBlaze

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Saw an article on NBC sports here where they ranked all the teams.

Blazers fall into the "Play-In Hopeful" category (at least we no longer fall into the Lottery-bound bucket from the outset).

Here is what they had to say about the Blazers:

No Scoot Henderson to start the season as he recovers from a hamstring strain, a setback for a team built to defend and run this season. It also plays right into one of the biggest questions facing the Trail Blazers this season: 1) Do they have a franchise player? And if not, how many of the young players on this roster — Henderson, Donovan Clingan, Deni Avdija, Toumani Camara — can be part of that rotation next to that guy when they get him? (Yang Hansen is another question, but one that will take a couple of seasons to answer, he needs time.) The fact that Camara and Shaedon Sharpe got contract extensions this week suggests the Trail Blazers think both can be part of the future.

I found it interesting that when they list the young players on the roster at the beginning, they exclude Sharpe but then mention him later almost as an after-thought (hey, he got a contract extension, I guess that must mean we should mention him).
 
CBS Sports here has the following regarding the Blazers:

Portland hopes that its fourth-ranked defense after the All-Star break was no mirage, and that the acquisition of Jrue Holiday will provide steadiness and mentorship for its young core. Offensively, though ... yeah it's gonna be rough. The Blazers will need a serious leap from Shaedon Sharpe, Deni Avdija and/or Scoot Henderson (when he returns) in order to score enough points to get where they want to be in the West.
 
ESPN here has this:

Biggest thing we'll be talking about this season: Whether their young core will rise in time to make the fading seasons of Damian Lillard's career at least mildly competitive in a playoff sense. Shaedon Sharpe, their bouncy fourth-year wing, looked excellent in his preseason debut. Team insiders say he has been dropping jaws regularly behind the scenes in training camp. If he makes a leap, if Scoot Henderson flashes as the future star Portland needs and if Donovan Clingan proves to be a reliable center, then Lillard will return next season from his Achilles tear to a refreshed Blazers team that could perhaps give him one final clutch moment on the brightest stage.

Biggest strength: Their defense. In 27 games after the All-Star break last season, the Blazers quietly had the fourth-best defensive rating in the NBA. Toumani Camara was named All-Defense second team on the wing. Clingan is an anchor on the back end. Jerami Grant and Deni Avdija provide requisite length. Portland added Jrue Holiday (a defensive pest) and traded Anfernee Simons (a liability) this summer. If the Blazers are to surprise and challenge for at least a play-in spot, they'll do it through a top-10 defense.

Biggest concern: How will they score enough? The Blazers finished with the 22nd-ranked offense last season and then traded their leading scorer, Simons, to Boston. It makes sense to lean into their defensive identity, but points are needed to win games. Sharpe averaged 18.5 last season on subpar efficiency. Portland will need him to spike the points and raise the percentages, in addition to mini offensive leaps from Henderson, Avdija and others. -- Slater

Bold (but realistic) prediction: Portland finishes with a top-five defense and a bottom-five offense. The Trail Blazers were already better on the defensive end last season, with wing stopper Camara leading the way. That imbalance should be even more skewed this season, after Portland traded Simons for Holiday and waived Deandre Ayton to elevate Clingan to the starting lineup. Defensive aces Matisse Thybulle and Robert Williams III could also play more after combining for just 35 games last season -- Kram

Number to watch: 1.19
The Trail Blazers had a top-five defense in the second half of the season, thanks in part to their transition defense. They allowed 1.19 points per possession in transition in their last 41 games, third best in the NBA during that stretch.

Fantasy nugget: Avdija was superb over the final 16 games last season, averaging 24.9 PPG and 10.6 RPG. He's a versatile player who can contribute on both ends of the court, entering his second full season in Portland after notching career highs in points, rebounds, assists, steals and 3s in 2024-25. -- Moody
 
NY Times (via the Athletic) here:

Expectation for this season: I do believe this team should and will compete for a Play-In spot. I don’t think they get it, but this should be around 40 wins. They need Henderson to take a leap. They need Sharpe to take a leap. And Yang flashing some greatness as the big man prospect would be awesome.
 
Yahoo Sports here has the most to say (so far):The Big Question: Is Scoot Henderson a star?The Blazers have talent. Maybe not a boatload of it. But they have talent.
They traded 26-year-old 20-point scorer Anfernee Simons for veteran Jrue Holiday, a two-time All-Star and maybe the best defensive guard of his generation, who they will pair with Scoot Henderson, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2023 draft, in their backcourt. Donovan Clingan looks like a legit center prospect. Jerami Grant is another veteran on the wing, where Deni Avdija is good and Toumani Camara is an All-Defensive performer. They bring Shaedon Sharpe off the bench. It is a team built for a superstar.

The question, then: Can Henderson be that guy? He suffered a hamstring tear during an offseason workout, which will prevent him from taking the floor for four to eight weeks, so any answers will have to wait. There was a brief moment in time — before we all thought better of it — that we mentioned Henderson in the same breath as Victor Wembanyama among the top prospects in their draft class. We thought that highly of the teenager with an NBA body. He is 21 years old now, entering his third season, still with plenty of time to find his footing in the league, but the time to step forward as a star is this season.

The Blazers need to know if Henderson is that guy, because if he is not, this has all been for naught. Finding superstars is the name of the game in the NBA, like it or not, and Portland took its bite at the apple in 2023, continuing to put pieces around him that could ensure he turns into a superstar. They have built with his success at top of mind. So, if he is not that guy, they have to go in search of Him again.

Here's everything you need to know for the 2025-26 season.
Henderson becomes eligible for an extension to his rookie contract at the end of this season. That is when the fun part of rebuilding ends and the financial aspect rears its ugly head. Someone is going to believe in Henderson enough to pay him, whether that is in Portland, where he could be a rising star, or elsewhere, where he may be an ongoing project. Decisions must be made. And this season is an audition.

It is all set up for him. The Blazers are in desperate need of an alpha who can carry the scoring and playmaking load on any given night, and that is precisely what Henderson was sold to us as. He has Holiday at his side. Damian Lillard, the prodigal son who returned to Portland, where he will spend this season rehabbing, will be in his ear, as will Blazers head coach Chauncey Billups, the Hall of Fame point guard. This is backcourt royalty, all of whom should have Henderson's success among their best interests.

Henderson's performance to date has left plenty to be desired. He is consistently inconsistent to put it kindly. He has averaged 13.3 points a game over his first two seasons on below-average 40/34/79 shooting splits, committing 2.7 turnovers to his 5.1 assists. Maybe he will come up with a steal on defense. Henderson's latest injury is certainly an obstacle in his way of finding the level of consistency he needs.

This is not what you want from your recent No. 3 overall pick — a prize in his draft — but there are enough signs of stardom to leave us tantalized. There were his 39 points in a mid-January start against the Brooklyn Nets. He posted a 21-5-11 off the bench against the Houston Rockets' vaunted defense two games later. He dropped 30 points off the bench in an overtime loss to the New York Knicks in March.

The Blazers still believe in him. We should still believe in him. Whether or not we should believe in him as a 35-to-1 long shot to win the league's Most Improved Player award this season is another matter entirely. How close he comes to that will determine how competitive the Blazers are in the Western Conference.

Best-case scenario​

Henderson is the star the Blazers need him to be. Avdija, Clingan and Sharpe develop alongside him. Yang Hansen does, indeed, show flashes of his promise as the "Chinese Jokic." Holiday is a stabilizing force. Maybe he and Grant fetch something on the trade market. Either way, Portland has its young core and enjoys its rise, which may include the pursuit of a play-in tournament berth.

If everything falls apart​

Henderson is not a prospect Portland prefers to build around. (Oh, man, what a killer that would be.) And there is the very real possibility that his pairing with Sharpe is one that can never yield high-end results. What, then, do the Blazers do? That they would have to figure out. Tank back to the bottom, where they can score another superstar prospect, or continue to build from the NBA's lower middle quadrant. Neither is much fun.


Over/under win total

The West is legit. Once you start listing teams, it is hard to imagine the Blazers staying in the playoff hunt, and outside of that 35 wins will be hard to come by, even if they won 36 last season. Going under.
 
Thanks for posting those! Great job!

This will be an interesting thread to revisit as the season goes on.
 
Yahoo Sports here has the most to say (so far):The Big Question: Is Scoot Henderson a star?The Blazers have talent. Maybe not a boatload of it. But they have talent.
Not sure why Yahoo continues to think that Sharpe will be coming off the bench when Scoot returns. Anything is possible especially since we have locked him up for a few years. But I would be surprised if that were to happen unless SS starts outthe season poorly.
 
Blazers will always outperform the general consensus I’ve realized, so the fact our baseline is that even our own toxic fanbase is optimistic is wildly bullish for rip city stonks
 

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