The 25 Game Mark

[wizenheimer]

before the season, looking at the schedule, last night's game was a big pivot point. Portland is 9-16, which coincidentally matches their home/road split to this point. And so far, they've had the 2nd most difficult schedule based upon opponent winning percentage (Portland's 16 losses are part of that)

but now, the Blazers play 7 of their next 8 games at home; 15 of their next 21 at home; and 20 of their next 29 at home. The offset to that is 19 of the next 29 opponents have winning records; and 22 of 29 have better records than Portland. The offset to that offset is that the Blazers should be getting back some of their missing players. Most projections of remaining SOS gives Portland about the 3rd easiest; that can change pretty quickly though

still, as of last night, Portland actually fell to 11th seed in the West. They are tied with Dallas, but Dallas won the one game they have played so far so they temporarily own the tiebreaker. Also, if the season ended today, the Blazers would be the 13th seed in the lottery. Miss the play-in and the 2nd worst odds in the lottery: "I'll take worst outcomes for $200, Alex"

Portland is 20th in NBA in offensive rating at 114.2. And they are 22nd in defensive rating at 118.2. That's a -4.0 net rating; and historically, a -4 net rating for the season results in about 31-32 wins

* Blazers are 29th in FG% but 3rd in FGA
* Blazers are 30th in 3ptFG% but 4th in 3ptFGA

(that may be the worst combo of shooting efficiency in the NBA and points to bad shot selection)

*Blazers are 24th in opponent FG% and 13th in opponent 3ptFG%

* Blazers are 21st in 2ptFG% and 21st in 2ptFGA....balance?

* Blazers are 3rd in FTA game; 4th in FTr; and 12th in FT%
* But Blazers are 28th in opponent FTA; 28th in opponent FTr; 28th in opponent FT%; and 28th in personal fouls

(so, one of the big offensive strengths of the Blazers, drawing fouls and getting to the line, is offset because Blazer games turn into hack-fests that result in a combined 46.6 fouls and 56 FTA's a game. Low entertainment value that gets everybody bitching about the officials. And what should be a big Blazer advantage: scoring 22.4 points at the line, is 100% offset because opponents score the same 22.4 points)

* Blazers are 2nd in offensive rebounds/game; 3rd in off reb rate; 5th in rebounds/game; but 25th in def reb/game and 29th in def reb rate

(the gap between their offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding is kind of crazy. Obviously, Clingan is the main reason their offensive rebounding is elite, but the rebounding on defense is bad. Not sure if there is any one reason. Portland plays a lot of zone and that probably contributes. 30 minutes a game from Grant may be a factor. The fact that Portland has 4 C's that can't really play with each other so they go with a bunch of wings at PF is very likely a factor. Timelord missing 10 games and playing limited minutes is a factor. Reath and Yang being scrubs a factor)

biggest missing ingredient is obviously Jrue. If he was healthy Portland would be better on both ends of the floor. However, if he has a serious calf injury he may be missing a lot more games

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Thank you.

I have increasingly wondered how much can be attributed to coaching.

Yes, injuries have killed us but there seems to be a lack of accountability and consistency.

Thoughts?

Gramps…

 

[e_blazer]

before the season, looking at the schedule, last night's game was a big pivot point. Portland is 9-16, which coincidentally matches their home/road split to this point. And so far, they've had the 2nd most difficult schedule based upon opponent winning percentage (Portland's 16 losses are part of that)

but now, the Blazers play 7 of their next 8 games at home; 15 of their next 21 at home; and 20 of their next 29 at home. The offset to that is 19 of the next 29 opponents have winning records; and 22 of 29 have better records than Portland. The offset to that offset is that the Blazers should be getting back some of their missing players. Most projections of remaining SOS gives Portland about the 3rd easiest; that can change pretty quickly though

still, as of last night, Portland actually fell to 11th seed in the West. They are tied with Dallas, but Dallas won the one game they have played so far so they temporarily own the tiebreaker. Also, if the season ended today, the Blazers would be the 13th seed in the lottery. Miss the play-in and the 2nd worst odds in the lotter: "I'll take worst outcomes for $200, Alex"

Portland is 20th in NBA in offensive rating at 114.2. And they are 22nd in defensive rating at 118.2. That's a -4.0 net rating; and historically, a -4 net rating for the season results in about 31-32 wins

* Blazers are 29th in FG% but 3rd in FGA
* Blazers are 30th in 3ptFG% but 4th in 3ptFGA

(that may be the worst combo of shooting efficiency in the NBA and points to bad shot selection)

*Blazers are 24th in opponent FG% and 13th in opponent 3ptFG%

* Blazers are 21st in 2ptFG% and 21t in 2ptFGA....balance?

* Blazers are 3rd in FTA game; 4th in FTr; and 12th in FT%
* But Blazers are 28th in opponent FTA; 28th in opponent FTr; 28th in opponent FT%; and 28th in personal fouls

(so, one of the big offensive strengths of the Blazers, drawing fouls and getting to the line, is offset because Blazer games turn into hack-fests that result in a combined 46.6 fouls and 56 FTA's a game. Low entertainment value that gets everybody bitching about the officials. And what should be a big Blazer advantage: scoring 22.4 points at the line, is 100% offset because opponents score the same 22.4 points)

* Blazers are 2nd in offensive rebounds/game; 3rd in off reb rate; 5th in rebounds/game; but 25th in def reb/game and 29th in def reb rate

(the gap between their offensive rebounding and defensive rebounding is kind of crazy. Obviously, Clingan is the main reason their offensive rebounding is elite, but the rebounding on defense is bad. Not sure if there is any one reason. Portland plays a lot of zone and that probably contributes. 30 minutes a game from Grant may be a factor. The fact that Portland has 4 C's that can't really play with each other so they go with a bunch of wings at PF is very likely a factor. Timelord missing 10 games and playing limited minutes is a factor. Reath and Yang being scrubs a factor)

biggest missing ingredient is obviously Jrue. If he was healthy Portland would be better on both ends of the floor. However, if he has a serious calf injury he may be missing a lot more games

The Blazers were 6-6 after Jrue's last game and that stretch included wins over the Warriors, Lakers, Nuggets, and OKC (albeit and injured Thunder team). To have been a .500 team given the schedule they played up until that point, especially with Scoot out, gave a lot of encouragement for the rest of the season. Once Jrue went down, the Blazers have been playing without a true PG and they're only 3-10 since then. The other injured players have hurt badly too, but I'd agree that Jrue is the biggest reason that the Blazers are moving into lottery territory. It pisses me off that we're to this point of the season and still don't have a good idea of what this team can be when reasonably healthy. I think that the centers should be back by the next game. It sounds like Matisse is close. Scoot remains a big question mark. But unless Jrue gets back soon, the season is going to be at risk of falling into tanking mode sooner rather than later.

 

[Strenuus]

Someday the team will be worth actually watching again.

Been about 5 or 6 years.

I know ya'll find reasons to watch, and thats fine and you do you, but for me theres no reason to carve out time until they prove for longer than a few games here or there they actually are building a consistency (sans-injury). I just have no desire to watch players that wont make a long term impact whether as a star or supporting role. To which we have neither.

Shitty time in Blazers lore. My opinion.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

Someday the team will be worth actually watching again.

At the beginning of the season, I made carving out time a priority. We were fun to watch and competitive. As @e_blazer said, with Jrue gone there has been no on-floor leadership and it has shown.

Last game when we were playing without any PG's or realistic C's, it was pathetic. We had one natural leader (Deni) some decent role players (Tomani, Jeremi, Shaedon) and then g-league or end-of-benchers to fill out the rest of the roster.

I may prioritize watching again once we get a more realistic team but for now, and knowing the draft coming up, I'm fine with generally being competitive and hoping for a decent pick. I would be very open to trading nearly anyone (but Deni) for a good deal; not just to trade but for a good deal that could possibly give us some good picks and maybe some new potentials (or even a proven).

Gramps...

 

[wizenheimer]

The Blazers were 6-6 after Jrue's last game and that stretch included wins over the Warriors, Lakers, Nuggets, and OKC (albeit and injured Thunder team). To have been a .500 team given the schedule they played up until that point, especially with Scoot out, gave a lot of encouragement for the rest of the season. Once Jrue went down, the Blazers have been playing without a true PG and they're only 3-10 since then. The other injured players have hurt badly too, but I'd agree that Jrue is the biggest reason that the Blazers are moving into lottery territory. It pisses me off that we're to this point of the season and still don't have a good idea of what this team can be when reasonably healthy. I think that the centers should be back by the next game. It sounds like Matisse is close. Scoot remains a big question mark. But unless Jrue gets back soon, the season is going to be at risk of falling into tanking mode sooner rather than later.

one thing about those 12 games when they were 6-6: Blazers were 3-1 in one possession games and those games have a way of evening out. Since then they are 1-3 in one possession games. So, I'd say that record was a little skewed especially considering they beat OKC when they were missing Holmgren, Jalen Williams, Dort, and Caruso. Now it's Blazers losing close, and not close games, because of missing players.

also, I may have mentioned it, but it's pretty clear opponents have scouted the Blazers and are working to take away what Portland does best. Obviously, without Jrue and Wesley, Portland's point-of-attack defense has suffered. And Jrue returning will help on both ends of the floor. But he can't be a band-aid for all the flaws the Blazers have and all the weaknesses that have been exposed

after Deni averaged 17 FTA over a 5 game stretch, I suspected it was just a matter of time before opponents started game-planning that part of Deni's game, And they have, Further, I was pretty sure that officials would notice how much Deni was getting rewarded for his 'full-steam-ahead-into-crowds-with-arms-flailing' dribble drives and start swallowing there whistles on much of the contact he's been getting. And they have. And, Deni is not helping matters by complaining after every non-call....sometimes while the other team is transitioning the other way

 

[riverman]

Could be teams have caught up on scouting our 2 way G league players and countered our surpise factor? It didn't take that long for teams to figure out letting us hoist 3s was a good game plan against us. Play zone and pack the paint and you have a good chance of beating us..

 

[Strenuus]

Could be teams have caught up on scouting our 2 way G league players and countered our surpise factor. It didn't take that long for teams to figure out letting us hoist 3s was a good game plan against us. Play zone and pack the paint and you have a good chance of beating us..

I think just them fielding any players they have a good chance of beating us.

 

[riverman]

I think just them fielding any players they have a good chance of beating us.

my jokes never land around here...I even used green font for surprise! 8 of our best players have been out injured...they've figured out Love and Cissoko!!!

 

[Chris Craig]

What was their schedule difficulty in the first 25 last year?

Did we have as many injuries at this point?

 

[Strenuus]

my jokes never land around here...I even used green font for surprise! 8 of our best players have been out injured...they've figured out Love and Cissoko!!!

Our 8 best players netted us a .500 record when healthy this year, and yes, a couple good wins in there for sure.

No consistency. It sucks.

 

[riverman]

Our 8 best players netted us a .500 record when healthy this year, and yes, a couple good wins in there for sure.

No consistency. It sucks.

We had the toughest schedule in the league for the first dozen games....500 ball was a win for that stretch and our losses were by a couple of pts...context...going into the season I didn't think they'd win 3 of those games..Blake Jrue and Matisse were impact players from the jump

 

[Everything Beagle]

Thank you.

I have increasingly wondered how much can be attributed to coaching.

Yes, injuries have killed us but there seems to be a lack of accountability and consistency.

Thoughts?

Gramps…

My thoughts are the the injured players instilled accountability in the other players on the court. Jrue and Clingan in particular don’t put up with nonsense on the court. Jerami is much better for the team off the bench than he is as a starter, and Thybulle and Wesley created the chaos necessary for our defense to work.

I can’t make any judgments on the team without thinking primarily of how injuries have left the team without an identity. We had a good mix of on court leaders and ready followers but most of the on court leaders are sitting at home watching us lose.

 

[Strenuus]

We had the toughest schedule in the league for the first dozen games....500 ball was a win for that stretch and our losses were by a couple of pts...context...going into the season I didn't think they'd win 3 of those games..Blake Jrue and Matisse were impact players from the jump

Understood but I expect .500 on road trips, I expect better (my own resentment, I understand) if we are to make any noise.

Its clear we wont (and wouldnt even if fully healthy), so maybe a blessing in disguise? Its unfortunate we are a year away from being a year away.

The Hansen pick will haunt us lol.

 

[sheed30]

Someday the team will be worth actually watching again.

Been about 5 or 6 years.

I know ya'll find reasons to watch, and thats fine and you do you, but for me theres no reason to carve out time until they prove for longer than a few games here or there they actually are building a consistency (sans-injury). I just have no desire to watch players that wont make a long term impact whether as a star or supporting role. To which we have neither.

Shitty time in Blazers lore. My opinion.

That’s great man, thanks for you repeating your opinion and dogging on the Blazers regularly like you do.

You and Aldo are in the same boat to me.

 

[SlyPokerDog]

That’s great man, thanks for you repeating your opinion and catting on the Blazers regularly like you do.

FTFY

 

[THE HCP]

Pretty much right on target for my predictions I would guess.

 

[THE HCP]

Thank you.

I have increasingly wondered how much can be attributed to coaching.



Gramps…

The teams talent win/loses games, not coaching

OKC would still have their same record if the Pelican’s coach was leading them. The Pels would still have 4 wins if they had OKC’s.

 

[BlayZa]

my appraisal is

we seriously need a PG that is starter material. without Jrue/Dame/Scoot this is a rudderless team.
our D intentions have become known, and they are being countered with some regularity.
we've had some bright spots in the team tho, people have stood up and played hard.
playing hard with no real PG to direct them can look worse than it is.
Deni has broken out, unfortunately a byproduct of that is that he feels he can be the only option and is doing too much sometimes, and sometimes to the detriment of the team and good bball. ie that game a few games back, right at the end, close game, deni-ball time, drove in, lost it, thought he was fouled, moaned at the ref vs getting back, next play rolls in on deni-ball again and is blocked.
we had our best success with team-ball, hard running, hustle, tight d, and a floor general.
most of that has fallen off.

 

[tlongII]

The teams talent win/loses games, not coaching

OKC would still have their same record if the Pelican’s coach was leading them. The Pels would still have 4 wins if they had OKC’s.

Wut? You’re implying that coaches have no impact on a team’s W/L record. That is a ridiculous take.

 

[wizenheimer]

worth noting...maybe: after last night's games, Portland is now 12th seed in the West and 8th seed in the lottery




oops

 

[THE HCP]

Wut? You’re implying that coaches have no impact on a team’s W/L record. That is a ridiculous take.

I’ve always felt this way. “Ridiculous”? Sure.
Explain why Luke Walton owns the record for best start as a head coach in NBA history and then could barely get any wins after. It was the Warriors talent level son. It DEFINITELY wasn’t his Xs and Os. That’s “Ridiculous”? So you don’t think the worst coach in the NBA right now, whoever that is, wouldn’t have the Thunder in the exact same position and they are right now?
I also know for a fact the Red Auerbach or Phil Jackson even, would have us RIGHT in the same position in the standings we are right now now if they were coaching our crew.
Coaches get too much credit and too much blame.

 

[THE HCP]

worth noting...maybe: after last night's games, Portland is now 12th seed in the West and 8th seed in the lottery

View attachment 78409


oops

You thought they were going to win this season?

 

[wizenheimer]

You thought they were going to win this season?

never said that...at all

figure if things went really well with limited injuries, maybe 40 wins

 

[tlongII]

I’ve always felt this way. “Ridiculous”? Sure.
Explain why Luke Walton owns the record for best start as a head coach in NBA history and then could barely get any wins after. It was the Warriors talent level son. It DEFINITELY wasn’t his Xs and Os. That’s “Ridiculous”? So you don’t think the worst coach in the NBA right now, whoever that is, wouldn’t have the Thunder in the exact same position and they are right now?
I also know for a fact the Red Auerbach or Phil Jackson even, would have us RIGHT in the same position in the standings we are right now now if they were coaching our crew.
Coaches get too much credit and too much blame.

What do they even have coaches for then? Why did the Warriors improve so much when they replaced Jackson with Kerr?

 

[SlyPokerDog]

25 games in, what have we learned...

Our rebuild is a bust and we our new owner needs a new GM.

We only have 4 players on the roster we should keep long term.

1. Deni
2. Clingan
3. Camara
4. Dame (He's on a no-trade contract. Don't hate, Dame is a God.)

Everyone else should be available for trade. (That doesn't mean we should trade everyone else, but if an offer comes in and it's decent, buh-bye.)

When Jrue comes back, we should play him for a game or two, then sit him. He's more valuable as a trade deadline trade piece than leading this team to a .500 record when he plays.

Any of our picks, Bucks picks, and swaps are off the board to be used until we get a new GM.

We need to get dirt on OKC's GM and/or owners so we can blackmail them for their picks. AKA Operation Dead Hooker.

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

The teams talent win/loses games, not coaching

OKC would still have their same record if the Pelican’s coach was leading them. The Pels would still have 4 wins if they had OKC’s.

By that logic, if you were coaching, the Bulls would still have won 6 championships with Jordan. You could have won as many as Pops with the same players.

Not buying it.

Coaches need to fit their system to the talent they have and then let the talent (players) win. Using the wrong system for players or not having defined roles, consistency, etc. leads to playground ball and chaos.

Got another argument?

 

[GrandpaBlaze]

25 games in, what have we learned...

Our rebuild is a bust and we our new owner needs a new GM.

We only have 4 players on the roster we should keep long term.

1. Deni
2. Clingan
3. Camara
4. Dame (He's on a no-trade contract. Don't hate, Dame is a God.)

Everyone else should be available for trade. (That doesn't mean we should trade everyone else, but if an offer comes in and it's decent, buh-bye.)

When Jrue comes back, we should play him for a game or two, then sit him. He's more valuable as a trade deadline trade piece than leading this team to a .500 record when he plays.

Any of our picks, Bucks picks, and swaps are off the board to be used until we get a new GM.

We need to get dirt on OKC's GM and/or owners so we can blackmail them for their picks. AKA Operation Dead Hooker.

I'd take Clingan off that list. He is solid but by no means a difference maker (other than occasionally). Additionally, as others have pointed out, we're trying to run more up-tempo and have a slower plodding center who doesn't seem to be a great fit for the apparent playing style the team wants to use.

You get the right deal and I trade anyone other than Deni (and Dame since he is no trade).

 

[SlyPokerDog]

I'd take Clingan off that list. He is solid but by no means a difference maker (other than occasionally). Additionally, as others have pointed out, we're trying to run more up-tempo and have a slower plodding center who doesn't seem to be a great fit for the apparent playing style the team wants to use.

You get the right deal and I trade anyone other than Deni (and Dame since he is no trade).

What style of basketball we play is going out the window this offseason once we hire a new coach and GM.

Clingan has shown enough growth from year 1 to 2, that, imo, we should keep him to the end of this season. The NBA is facing the, how do we solve the OKC problem. A team pushing all their chips in the middle could decide a big plodding center still under a rookie contract is what is needed to compete against OKC, Nugs, and Spurs.